Kevin Love prefers to be traded to Blazers. Thompson also available

[Monkhouse]

After having a big hole there all season the Blazers could trot out TWO HOF PFs!  Top tier here they come lol.

This raises an interesting question. Is Love actually a hall of famer? Basketball reference has him at 73% right around Amare Stoudamire and Kevin Lowry.  I think he actually needs to make another all-star game or two potentially. I don't think he will make the game this year and will be 32 next season. Also for a scoring big with an average at best defensive reputation he has only averaged 20 or more points 3 times in his career.

Nope and I don't think Love is anywhere close to being a HoF either. His role on those Cavs title contending teams was more in line with a Lamar Odom level player than a Pau Gasol level player. Hell, to be honest Love wasn't even as good for Cleveland as Odom was for the Lakers.

Does his big stat no results (no playoff appearances) get Love in? I don't think so. Too many injuries. Not enough games at high level. No team success. Questionable impact - no empty stats but not full stats either since his horrible D and bad leadership ate away at his many positive contributions as an offensive player and rebounder. One and a half seasons at 25ppg and one at 20ppg. Just not enough. Especially without team success.

Role not valuable enough on title contender.

Pre-title contender contributions didn't last long enough and had questionable impact on team success of which his team had none (no playoff appearances).

----------------

I think Bball-reference is way off the mark at giving Love a 73%. I'd have him down around 15%. And I do not see him adding much to that with the remainder of his career.

Whoa, whoa. Well, I mean I'm a huge Kevin Love fan so I may be biased here but...

Let's take a look at his accolades.

NBA champion (2016)
5× NBA All-Star (2011, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2018)
2× All-NBA Second Team (2012, 2014)
NBA Most Improved Player (2011)
NBA All-Rookie Second Team (2009)
NBA Three-Point Shootout champion (2012)
NBA rebounding leader (2011)
Consensus first-team All-American (2008)
Pac-10 Player of the Year (2008)
First-team All-Pac-10 (2008)
Naismith Prep Player of the Year (2007)

You also have to take into account, it isn't just NBA related, but the overall scope of their basketball career.

I could honestly see Love making one more All-Star game, and I think that honestly might be enough. Disagree or not, but if Love is at over 60%, that generally means he's a lock to get in.

Love went from being a rebounding and lumbering post up big to adapting to the modern NBA where he became one of the best shooting big's. Career averages 18/11/2 on 44/37/82 is pretty hard to ignore...

I know people don't like Love, but while he disappeared in the playoffs, (which wasn't the case against us... He smoked us,) he also was instrumental in bringing their first championship.

Also comparing Lamar Odom to Love is like comparing apples to oranges, their both completely different players, and they both served different roles on their respective teams.

Kevin Love in 2015-2016? I take that over any best season Odom has ever had, and without a doubt, and my eyes closed.

Love is the far superior player, and if he hadn't been riddled with so many injuries, who knows how far he could've gone. Yes the amount of games missed collectively means he may miss the mark, but most people with over 55% Hall of Fame probability usually end up being HoFers.

Love is one of the best floor spacing bigs in the NBA, and if you actually put a decent team around him to mitigate his weaknesses, he's actually a decent #2/#3 on a contending team.

[fairweatherfan]

After having a big hole there all season the Blazers could trot out TWO HOF PFs!  Top tier here they come lol.

This raises an interesting question. Is Love actually a hall of famer? Basketball reference has him at 73% right around Amare Stoudamire and Kevin Lowry.  I think he actually needs to make another all-star game or two potentially. I don't think he will make the game this year and will be 32 next season. Also for a scoring big with an average at best defensive reputation he has only averaged 20 or more points 3 times in his career.

The Hall of Fame as most fans think it should be, probably not without some more accolades.

The Hall of Fame as it is? 5 All-Stars, 2 All-NBA 2nd teams, a key player for 1 chip + 2 other Finals appearances plus technically another when he was hurt, some gaudy scoring and especially rebounding numbers early on and big individual game statlines?

He'd be more comfortable with some boosts to counting stats - 15k-18k points and 10k-11k rebounds seem reasonable - or another All-Star or 2 but probably, yeah. I have a hard time seeing that player locked out for 10+ years and the Vets committee. 73% seems about right. More likely than not, not crazy to not get in especially if his career peters out.


Come to think of it he's in a similar boat as Iguodala - early career individual success, later career team success. Except his individual side is better and his team side not as good, plus Iggy has the golden ticket of a Finals MVP.

[celticsclay]

After having a big hole there all season the Blazers could trot out TWO HOF PFs!  Top tier here they come lol.

This raises an interesting question. Is Love actually a hall of famer? Basketball reference has him at 73% right around Amare Stoudamire and Kevin Lowry.  I think he actually needs to make another all-star game or two potentially. I don't think he will make the game this year and will be 32 next season. Also for a scoring big with an average at best defensive reputation he has only averaged 20 or more points 3 times in his career.

The Hall of Fame as most fans think it should be, probably not without some more accolades.

The Hall of Fame as it is? 5 All-Stars, 2 All-NBA 2nd teams, a key player for 1 chip + 2 other Finals appearances plus technically another when he was hurt, some gaudy scoring and especially rebounding numbers early on and big individual game statlines?

He'd be more comfortable with some boosts to counting stats - 15k-18k points and 10k-11k rebounds seem reasonable - or another All-Star or 2 but probably, yeah. I have a hard time seeing that player locked out for 10+ years and the Vets committee. 73% seems about right. More likely than not, not crazy to not get in especially if his career peters out.


Come to think of it he's in a similar boat as Iguodala - early career individual success, later career team success. Except his individual side is better and his team side not as good, plus Iggy has the golden ticket of a Finals MVP.

Question on these probabilities and how they are calculated. Do they ever go down? Or do they ever go up? For example, I would think for the average 31 year old that has made 5 all-star games, the normal career arc would have them making 1 or 2 more games. I also think that they would be expected to have pretty static stats for a few more years (look at pierce, kg, allen as comparisons). Given Love's really lengthy injury history I am not sure if he is going to have a good twilight to his career. If he is traded to Portland for example the next three years I would imagine he wouldn't be averaging more than 12-15 points for those years, and maybe even less if he plays a few years after his current contract. I don't think that leaves him with particularly impressive career totals or averages.

[bdm860]

After having a big hole there all season the Blazers could trot out TWO HOF PFs!  Top tier here they come lol.

This raises an interesting question. Is Love actually a hall of famer? Basketball reference has him at 73% right around Amare Stoudamire and Kevin Lowry.  I think he actually needs to make another all-star game or two potentially. I don't think he will make the game this year and will be 32 next season. Also for a scoring big with an average at best defensive reputation he has only averaged 20 or more points 3 times in his career.

Nope and I don't think Love is anywhere close to being a HoF either. His role on those Cavs title contending teams was more in line with a Lamar Odom level player than a Pau Gasol level player. Hell, to be honest Love wasn't even as good for Cleveland as Odom was for the Lakers.

Does his big stat no results (no playoff appearances) get Love in? I don't think so. Too many injuries. Not enough games at high level. No team success. Questionable impact - no empty stats but not full stats either since his horrible D and bad leadership ate away at his many positive contributions as an offensive player and rebounder. One and a half seasons at 25ppg and one at 20ppg. Just not enough. Especially without team success.

Role not valuable enough on title contender.

Pre-title contender contributions didn't last long enough and had questionable impact on team success of which his team had none (no playoff appearances).

----------------

I think Bball-reference is way off the mark at giving Love a 73%. I'd have him down around 15%. And I do not see him adding much to that with the remainder of his career.

Whoa, whoa. Well, I mean I'm a huge Kevin Love fan so I may be biased here but...

Let's take a look at his accolades.

NBA champion (2016)
5× NBA All-Star (2011, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2018)
2× All-NBA Second Team (2012, 2014)
NBA Most Improved Player (2011)
NBA All-Rookie Second Team (2009)
NBA Three-Point Shootout champion (2012)
NBA rebounding leader (2011)
Consensus first-team All-American (2008)
Pac-10 Player of the Year (2008)
First-team All-Pac-10 (2008)
Naismith Prep Player of the Year (2007)

You also have to take into account, it isn't just NBA related, but the overall scope of their basketball career.

I could honestly see Love making one more All-Star game, and I think that honestly might be enough. Disagree or not, but if Love is at over 60%, that generally means he's a lock to get in.

Love went from being a rebounding and lumbering post up big to adapting to the modern NBA where he became one of the best shooting big's. Career averages 18/11/2 on 44/37/82 is pretty hard to ignore...

I know people don't like Love, but while he disappeared in the playoffs, (which wasn't the case against us... He smoked us,) he also was instrumental in bringing their first championship.

Also comparing Lamar Odom to Love is like comparing apples to oranges, their both completely different players, and they both served different roles on their respective teams.

Kevin Love in 2015-2016? I take that over any best season Odom has ever had, and without a doubt, and my eyes closed.

Love is the far superior player, and if he hadn't been riddled with so many injuries, who knows how far he could've gone. Yes the amount of games missed collectively means he may miss the mark, but most people with over 55% Hall of Fame probability usually end up being HoFers.

Love is one of the best floor spacing bigs in the NBA, and if you actually put a decent team around him to mitigate his weaknesses, he's actually a decent #2/#3 on a contending team.

At first I was going to say yes.

Looked at his bball-ref page though, and now I just don't see it.

I guess I thought his time in Minny was a little longer, and a little more dominant (that 18 game season isn't helping anything).  Thought he had a few more All-Star games too (putting him on say a Chris Bosh level with a bunch of All-Star games but not much else for individual accolades).

For comparison, Chris Webber isn't in (yet at least, retired in '08, been a finalist for last 3 years though), and he has:

5× NBA All-Star (1997, 2000–2003)
All-NBA First Team (2001)
3× All-NBA Second Team (1999, 2002, 2003)
All-NBA Third Team (2000)
NBA Rookie of the Year (1994)
NBA All-Rookie First Team (1994)
NBA rebounding leader (1999)
No. 4 retired by Sacramento Kings
Consensus first-team All-American (1993)
USBWA National Freshman of the Year (1992)
McDonald's All-American MVP (1991)
Mr. Basketball USA (1991)
Naismith Prep Player of the Year (1991)
2× First-team Parade All-American (1990, 1991)
Mr. Basketball of Michigan (1991)
17.1k points
8.1k rebounds
3.5k assists
1.2k blocks
1.2k steals


College success may or may not factor in for Webber (everything was vacated).

Also Shawn Kemp:

6× NBA All-Star (1993–1998)
3× All-NBA Second Team (1994–1996)
McDonald's All-American (1988)
First-team Parade All-American (1988)
Second-team Parade All-American (1987)
Fourth-team Parade All-American (1986)
15.3k points
8.8k rebounds
1.7k assists
1.3k blocks
1.2k steals

In addition to what Monkhouse listed Love also has:
12.3k points
7.6k rebounds
1.6k assists
.5k steals
.3k blocks

Personally, I have a hard time envisioning a world where Love makes another All-Star game.  He's not making one in Cleveland, and a trade to Portland will keep him as a 3rd banana at best, and behind a ton of better frontcourt players in the West.  The West depth will be the same issue he faces going to any other West team.

Probably ends up somewhere slightly north of 15k points/9k rebounds, and the list of guys who have done that and are eligible for the HOF and not made it is small (and none have as many All-Star games as Love).

Overall though, I don't see it for Love.  Lesser NBA career than Webber and Kemp, and nothing really needle moving in the international/amateur world.

[fairweatherfan]

After having a big hole there all season the Blazers could trot out TWO HOF PFs!  Top tier here they come lol.

This raises an interesting question. Is Love actually a hall of famer? Basketball reference has him at 73% right around Amare Stoudamire and Kevin Lowry.  I think he actually needs to make another all-star game or two potentially. I don't think he will make the game this year and will be 32 next season. Also for a scoring big with an average at best defensive reputation he has only averaged 20 or more points 3 times in his career.

The Hall of Fame as most fans think it should be, probably not without some more accolades.

The Hall of Fame as it is? 5 All-Stars, 2 All-NBA 2nd teams, a key player for 1 chip + 2 other Finals appearances plus technically another when he was hurt, some gaudy scoring and especially rebounding numbers early on and big individual game statlines?

He'd be more comfortable with some boosts to counting stats - 15k-18k points and 10k-11k rebounds seem reasonable - or another All-Star or 2 but probably, yeah. I have a hard time seeing that player locked out for 10+ years and the Vets committee. 73% seems about right. More likely than not, not crazy to not get in especially if his career peters out.


Come to think of it he's in a similar boat as Iguodala - early career individual success, later career team success. Except his individual side is better and his team side not as good, plus Iggy has the golden ticket of a Finals MVP.

Question on these probabilities and how they are calculated. Do they ever go down? Or do they ever go up? For example, I would think for the average 31 year old that has made 5 all-star games, the normal career arc would have them making 1 or 2 more games. I also think that they would be expected to have pretty static stats for a few more years (look at pierce, kg, allen as comparisons). Given Love's really lengthy injury history I am not sure if he is going to have a good twilight to his career. If he is traded to Portland for example the next three years I would imagine he wouldn't be averaging more than 12-15 points for those years, and maybe even less if he plays a few years after his current contract. I don't think that leaves him with particularly impressive career totals or averages.

Here's the formula key: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically it's cumulative but not predictive - so it is based on total accomplishments but doesn't factor in expected future performance (at least not directly, there's a deeper argument there).

It can't ever go down with one kinda comical exception - because one predictor is a player's height, if a player's official height listing went down his rating would drop slightly.

[fairweatherfan]

Overall though, I don't see it for Love.  Lesser NBA career than Webber and Kemp, and nothing really needle moving in the international/amateur world.

I think this is an incomplete comparison without including the championship and 2 Finals appearances, which seem to be weighted heavily in consideration.

Does 1 ring and 2 more Finals offset the 1 more All-Star Game and 1 more 2nd team appearance Kemp has? I'd say probably so, especially when Love will pass Kemp in probably every counting stat but blk/stls and Kemp did not have a great reputation in the back half of his career, while Love is seen as a good league citizen and at the forefront of their mental health awareness campaign.

Does it offset the 1st team, 1 more 2nd team and 1 more 3rd team that Webber has if Love doesn't pass him in anything but rebounds? That's dicier but I think Webber gets in too eventually.

[bdm860]

Question on these probabilities and how they are calculated. Do they ever go down? Or do they ever go up?

I was just wondering the same thing.  I thought they had to go down because the guys I just compared Love to (Webber, Kemp) have much lower HOF probably, while having more individual success (All-Star, All-NBA).

Chris Webber - 14.6%
Shawn Kemp - 38.4%

So I looked it up, and it doesn't actually move.  And now I think the whole thing is garbage, as they take into account the following:

PTS
TRB
AST
MP
STL
BLK
Height (in.)
NBA Championships
NBA Leaderboard Points
NBA Peak Win Shares
All-Star Game Selections


So things like MVP, All-NBA, All-D, DPOY, any playoff stats, etc. don't matter.  It's hard for me to take this seriously now.

[bdm860]

Overall though, I don't see it for Love.  Lesser NBA career than Webber and Kemp, and nothing really needle moving in the international/amateur world.

I think this is an incomplete comparison without including the championship and 2 Finals appearances, which seem to be weighted heavily in consideration.

Does 1 ring and 2 more Finals offset the 1 more All-Star Game and 1 more 2nd team appearance Kemp has? I'd say probably so, especially when Love will pass Kemp in probably every counting stat but blk/stls and Kemp did not have a great reputation in the back half of his career.

Does it offset the 1st team, 1 more 2nd team and 1 more 3rd team that Webber has if Love doesn't pass him in anything but rebounds? That's dicier but I think Webber gets in too eventually.

While I'm all about winning and championships, I think they matter less the further down the roster you go.  Love, while he definitely helped CLE get there and would be considered 3rd best player on the team during the season, in the Finals he averaged 8.5ppg and 6.8rpg.  How much credit are we really giving him for that championship?  I absolutely think an All-NBA selection tops that contribution.  Though at the same time, I'd actually give Love credit for 3 Finals, even if he didn't play in one, as he was part of that team.  Kelly O may have robbed him of a ring!

Kemp had a Finals too, don't forget, and Webber was robbed of his Finals appearance (and had 2 NCAA Finals, at the tail end of that meaning something).

When Kemp and Webber are leading 60+ win teams, and Love is riding LeBron's coattails, I don't think that those go in Love's favor.  If Love was the centerpiece of those Finals teams (or even a 2 or 1b), then I think it would be more of a fair comparison.

[fairweatherfan]

Overall though, I don't see it for Love.  Lesser NBA career than Webber and Kemp, and nothing really needle moving in the international/amateur world.

I think this is an incomplete comparison without including the championship and 2 Finals appearances, which seem to be weighted heavily in consideration.

Does 1 ring and 2 more Finals offset the 1 more All-Star Game and 1 more 2nd team appearance Kemp has? I'd say probably so, especially when Love will pass Kemp in probably every counting stat but blk/stls and Kemp did not have a great reputation in the back half of his career.

Does it offset the 1st team, 1 more 2nd team and 1 more 3rd team that Webber has if Love doesn't pass him in anything but rebounds? That's dicier but I think Webber gets in too eventually.

While I'm all about winning and championships, I think they matter less the further down the roster you go.  Love, while he definitely helped CLE get there and would be considered 3rd best player on the team during the season, in the Finals he averaged 8.5ppg and 6.8rpg.  How much credit are we really giving him for that championship?  I absolutely think an All-NBA selection tops that contribution.  Though at the same time, I'd actually give Love credit for 3 Finals, even if he didn't play in one, as he was part of that team.  Kelly O may have robbed him of a ring!

Kemp had a Finals too, don't forget, and Webber was robbed of his Finals appearance (and had 2 NCAA Finals, at the tail end of that meaning something).

When Kemp and Webber are leading 60+ win teams, and Love is riding LeBron's coattails, I don't think that those go in Love's favor.  If Love was the centerpiece of those Finals teams (or even a 2 or 1b), then I think it would be more of a fair comparison.

I mostly agree (though I'm kicking myself for forgetting about the 96 Sonics) but it gets into HOF as it is vs HOF as we'd want it to be. To me, if you win a title on a team where your reputation is as "a star" it's a huge boost to your candidacy even if you weren't good in the Finals. I think Love has a better shot than Kemp and a comparable shot to Webber. Wouldn't be shocked if all 3 make it.

[Moranis]

Question on these probabilities and how they are calculated. Do they ever go down? Or do they ever go up?

I was just wondering the same thing.  I thought they had to go down because the guys I just compared Love to (Webber, Kemp) have much lower HOF probably, while having more individual success (All-Star, All-NBA).

Chris Webber - 14.6%
Shawn Kemp - 38.4%

So I looked it up, and it doesn't actually move.  And now I think the whole thing is garbage, as they take into account the following:

PTS
TRB
AST
MP
STL
BLK
Height (in.)
NBA Championships
NBA Leaderboard Points
NBA Peak Win Shares
All-Star Game Selections


So things like MVP, All-NBA, All-D, DPOY, any playoff stats, etc. don't matter.  It's hard for me to take this seriously now.

It is calculated based on who makes the HOF though.  If you look at the actual list, the highest rated person that is eligible and isn't in the HOF is Larry Foust at 94.2% (he is ranked 73rd).  Foust retired in 1962.  The next player, Tim Hardaway, is ranked 90th and is 79.19% (and he has some off court things that may be keeping him out).  Then you have Larry Costello at 98, and 70.97% who is another guy that last played a game in the 60's (1968).  Then you have Lou Hudson at 47.86% ranked 121 and who last played in 1979.  Then you start picking up a lot more players that aren't in.  The lowest rated guy that is in is Bill Walton at just 2.04%, but this doesn't account for college and I think the voters gave him a pretty large pass due to his injuries.  Don Nelson at 2.63% is also in, but he got in as a coach and not a player.  Maravich (aside from Walton), is basically the only person that has a pretty low score that went into the HOF soon after retiring.  in fact, basically everyone else that got in under like 40% got in long after they stopped playing and thus were more sentimental from the veterans committee and what not. 

[Who]

Kemp was 2nd for Finals MVP. Best player on the court not named Michael Jordan. How can you compare Love's disappearing act while riding LeBron's coat-tails to Kemp's playoff runs!

Webber was the best player on a team that went to game 7 in the conference Finals. Again far more impressive than anything Love did in Cleveland as the 3rd option or as the main man in no-wins Minnesota.

[MJohnnyboy]

Personally I think Love's best destination is Miami. As long as they wouldn't have to trade Jimmy, Justise or Bam, they'd have the personnel to cover up his defensive flaws and he'd give them so much spacing.

That wouldn't be the case in Portland. Nurkic is a good rim protector but he's not as versatile as Adebayo, and besides Nurk, the Blazers don't have much defensive personnel on their squad right now.

Also, Love getting paired with Kelly Olynyk would be the most ironic pairing since Wade and Rondo.

[bdm860]

Kemp was 2nd for Finals MVP. Best player on the court not named Michael Jordan. How can you compare Love's disappearing act while riding LeBron's coat-tails to Kemp's playoff runs!

Webber was the best player on a team that went to game 7 in the conference Finals. Again far more impressive than anything Love did in Cleveland as the 3rd option or as the main man in no-wins Minnesota.

Ha, I actually have a theory on those Kemp Finals MVP votes (that I believe I shared here before).  So voting went:

- Michael Jordan: 6
- Shawn Kemp: 3
- Dennis Rodman: 2

Rodman should have been MVP.

NY Times: Once Again, Rodman Is Most Valuable Bull
Washington Post: The Worm turns into a Hero

But this is the image-conscious NBA, they can't handle a freak like Rodman being Finals MVP.  So there's 11 guys in the press room who vote, talking amongst themselves, they conspire to have Rodman not win it, but don't think Jordan deserved it, so let's throw our vote to Kemp.  So 3 guys switched their vote to Kemp, and the rest just voted for Jordan anyway, while only a couple stood firm for Rodman.

Okay maybe my tin foil hat is on too tight, but Rodman should have been MVP, and Kemp only got any votes because they didn't want Rodman to win it.  Rodman's image kept him from Finals MVP.

I'm willing to die on this hill!

[Who]

Kemp was 2nd for Finals MVP. Best player on the court not named Michael Jordan. How can you compare Love's disappearing act while riding LeBron's coat-tails to Kemp's playoff runs!

Webber was the best player on a team that went to game 7 in the conference Finals. Again far more impressive than anything Love did in Cleveland as the 3rd option or as the main man in no-wins Minnesota.

Ha, I actually have a theory on those Kemp Finals MVP votes (that I believe I shared here before).  So voting went:

- Michael Jordan: 6
- Shawn Kemp: 3
- Dennis Rodman: 2

Rodman should have been MVP.

NY Times: Once Again, Rodman Is Most Valuable Bull
Washington Post: The Worm turns into a Hero

But this is the image-conscious NBA, they can't handle a freak like Rodman being Finals MVP.  So there's 11 guys in the press room who vote, talking amongst themselves, they conspire to have Rodman not win it, but don't think Jordan deserved it, so let's throw our vote to Kemp.  So 3 guys switched their vote to Kemp, and the rest just voted for Jordan anyway, while only a couple stood firm for Rodman.

Okay maybe my tin foil hat is on too tight, but Rodman should have been MVP, and Kemp only got any votes because they didn't want Rodman to win it.  Rodman's image kept him from Finals MVP.

I'm willing to die on this hill!

Yeah, that one is a really interesting debate. Rodman was huge in that series. But so too was Shawn Kemp.

To compare what K-Love did in the Finals in any way to Kemp and what Kemp provided the Sonics in that series is a major disservice to Kemp. Kemp was a monster in that series. The Bulls couldn't do anything with him.

Rodman did a much better job on Malone than Kemp. None of the Bulls could handle Kemp. If only more of his teammates showed up earlier in that series, Seattle could've given the Bulls much more of a scare.

[Who]

I remember reading another article that had Rodman as the regular season MVP - not just Finals MVP - over Michael Jordan that year. A statistical analysis of Rodman and value of his huge possession creation and defensive value vs MJ's offensive value, defensive value and really good possession creation.

It was a few years ago now. I liked that guy's stats. He came up with some interesting ideas / questions / debates (whether one agreed with them or not).

George Karl had Rodman as Finals MVP. Said Rodman caused them more problems than MJ did. Rodman's rebounding was huge in that series (and against Kemp too - Kemp not boxing out, relying too much on his athleticism and Rodman feasted).