Should Kanter Get Minutes?

[PhoSita]

I don't know how many of you are on Twitter, but Celtics Twitter really likes to hate on Kanter:




Here's the thing:  Is it wrong to feel that way, though?

The following numbers are from NBAWowy:


Enes Kanter has been on the court for 56 minutes so far this season.  116 possessions.


In the time that Kanter has been on the court, the Celtics have scored 1.155 points per possession.  In other words, per 100 possessions, the Celts score 115.5 points while Kanter is on the floor.  The Celts have a TS% of 54.5 with Kanter out there. That's pretty good.

Problem: the Celtics opponents score at exactly the same rate.  115.5 points per 100 possessions.  Opponents have a TS% of 55.4 with Kanter on the floor.  Those are not good numbers.


So the Celts are about break-even with Kanter.  That's not so bad, right?  If your team is breaking even, that at least means things aren't getting worse while you give your better players a breather.


How do things look when Kanter is off the floor?


Answer: In 424 minutes, 893 possessions without Kanter so far this season, the Celtics score 1.15 points per possession, i.e. an offensive rating of 115.  That's almost exactly the same as they score with Kanter.  The TS% of the team without Kanter is 57.3%, which is actually higher.

Defensively, the story is very different.  When Kanter is not on the floor, Celtics opponents are scoring 104.7 points per 100 possessions, with a TS% of 53.3. 


In short, the Celts so far this season are approximately 10 points per 100 possessions better without Kanter than they are with him.  That differential is explained entirely by defense.  Of course, Kanter is an offensive player; we know that.  He's supposed to be good on offense and bad on defense.  But so far, his offense isn't really making the Celtics better on the offensive end, and his defense is definitely making the team worse on that end.



Caveat -- small samples, obviously.  But these numbers are pretty much in line with what you would expect. 

It's not like Kanter is underperforming relative to his career numbers, either.  His per-36 production is slightly down compared to previous years, but he's getting to the line a lot more and scoring with greater efficiency.  It just hasn't translated to the team being any better on offense with him.



What do you think?

Should Kanter see the floor? 


Here are a few more numbers that may affect your opinion:


Grant Williams - 153 minutes played.  On the floor, team is net +2.4 with him on the floor.  (105.4 ORTG, 103 DRTG)

Off the floor, 327 minutes, the team is net +12.5 (119.9 ORTG, 107.4 DRTG)

Yikes!

Daniel Theis - 174 minutes played.  On the floor, team is net +18.9 (118.1 ORTG, 99.2 DRTG)

Off the floor, 306 minutes, the team is net +3.8 (113.4 ORTG, 109.6 DRTG)


Robert Williams - 128 minutes played.  On the floor, team is net +8.4 (124.1 ORTG, 115.7 DRTG).

Off the floor, 352 minutes played, team is net +9.4 (111.7 ORTG, 102.3 DRTG).


Vincent Poirier - 29 minutes played.  113.3 ORTG, 98.3 DRTG, net +15

Off the floor, 451 minutes, team is net +8.8 (115.2 ORTG, 106.4 DRTG)


Hrm ... well, it looks like the team is really good with Theis out there.  Seems that Grant Williams is about as much of a net negative as Kanter so far.  Rob Williams is close to breaking even.

The team has been surprisingly good with Poirier, but that's been mostly garbage time, so what can you really make of that?


A lot of this has to be a starters / bench thing, right?


Let's look at some lineups.


Kanter + Kemba w/ 3 of Smart, Hayward, Tatum, Brown:

26 minutes, 52 possessions

121.2 ORTG, 105.8 DRTG, Net +15.4


Kemba + Theis w/ 3 of Smart, Hayward, Tatum, Brown:

101 minutes, 205 possessions

116.6 ORTG, 89.8 DRTG, Net +26.8


Kemba + Timelord w/ 3 of Smart, Hayward, Tatum, Brown:

47 minutes, 102 possessions

123.5 ORTG, 110.8 DRTG, Net +12.7


Kemba + Grant w/ 3 of Smart, Hayward, Tatum, Brown:

15 minutes, 34 possessions

135.3 ORTG, 102.9 DRTG, Net +32.4



Again, pretty small samples overall.  The sample for Poirier with the starters is so small (7 minutes, 13 possessions) that it's not worth listing -- though the team has been really good in that tiny sample.

I think what we can say for sure is that the starters are really good with Theis. 

Grant Williams seems like he fits in quite well with the starters, despite his lack of size.  His overall on/off numbers suggest that the team is perhaps hurt more by his lack of offense when he's out there with bench players.


Timelord looks like his impact is maybe not as positive as you might assume from his overall productivity.  The team does well with him on the floor, but not that much better than they do with other guys in his spot.



Frankly I'm not certain what my takeaway is.  It sure looks like the team is best with Theis, and maybe with Grant Williams as long as he's out there with the starters.  But perhaps these trends will change as time goes on and opponents figure out how to exploit some of the Celts' more successful lineups.

If you're going to give minutes to somebody else, it makes sense to go with Rob Williams if you can, right?  Because he's got a future here, and he's at least got potential on defense even if he isn't actually a net positive there right now.

I would say Vincent Poirier deserves more of a look, if anything.



Bottom line, an entire NBA career and a short run so far with the Celts supports the conclusion that even if Kanter doesn't kill you out there, he isn't that much of a help compared to other guys who could get his minutes.


I feel like sooner rather than later, if most of the center rotation is healthy, Kanter will be riding the pine.

[keevsnick]

I mean it basically confirms what I've suspected about Kanter's fit which is that his offense is less useful because we have guys who can give you a pretty elite level of offense, as evidence by the fact the C's are the number one league offense without him for most the season. And his defense hurts you because he's really bad and center defense is really important. The net result is the c's are better off playing lower usage defense bigs like Theis and Williams.

I think the signing was still a fine idea, because at the time nobody knew how our offense would look. But with all three of the wings taking a big step his strengths arent as important.

[saltlover]

Yes, Kanter should get minutes.  What lineups he should get them with is an open question, but he’s played maybe 15 fully healthy minutes so far this season, most of which were arguably against the best center in the league.

(Note: I’m arguing that Kanter is not at 100% yet.)

[gpap]

I don't see any reason why not

I was noticing the weaknesses in his defense last night which definitely exist, but I also feel he helps more than he hurts. He's a good rebounder, good at holding down his position and is the most experienced of all the centers we have.

[PhoSita]

Yes, Kanter should get minutes.  What lineups he should get them with is an open question, but he’s played maybe 15 fully healthy minutes so far this season, most of which were arguably against the best center in the league.

(Note: I’m arguing that Kanter is not at 100% yet.)

You raise a fair point.  I'm not sure I see a lot of evidence in the stats, or frankly in how Kanter looks on the court, to suggest that the injury has affected the way he's played.  Obviously he had an injury that kept him out for a while.  Maybe he'll become a little more spry and contest a bit more at the rim as he recovers from his knee injury. 


But I feel like what we've seen is pretty much what I would have expected.  It just seems like what Kanter brings to the table isn't enough of a boon for this team to make up for what he takes away.  I love how he grabs boards, but he's such a zero when an opponent is nearing the rim.

[Donoghus]

Xanny DeVito seems like an angry person.

[PhoSita]

I don't see any reason why not

I was noticing the weaknesses in his defense last night which definitely exist, but I also feel he helps more than he hurts. He's a good rebounder, good at holding down his position and is the most experienced of all the centers we have.

The issue is that so far he doesn't, really. 

And the question is more: Does Kanter help more than some other center (Theis, Grant, Poirier, Timelord) would help?

The answer so far seems to be: No.

[PhoSita]

Xanny DeVito seems like an angry person.

Twitter, man.  The whole thing on Twitter is that you're either caustically negative / mocking or you're angry.

[liam]

Yes.

[gpap]

I don't see any reason why not

I was noticing the weaknesses in his defense last night which definitely exist, but I also feel he helps more than he hurts. He's a good rebounder, good at holding down his position and is the most experienced of all the centers we have.

The issue is that so far he doesn't, really. 

And the question is more: Does Kanter help more than some other center (Theis, Grant, Poirier, Timelord) would help?

The answer so far seems to be: No.

A few points however

Theis and Timelord are both 6'8 so they're undersized centers. Grant is only 6'7.

And as for Poirier, from what I've seen so far, if people think Kanter isn't productive, what do they expect to see from Poirier?

He's extremely uncoordinated and looks very green.

Could get better as the season goes on, but this is his first NBA season.

So when you weigh the pros and cons, Kanter is as good as any center we have.

[Fafnir]

Sure he should get minutes, I'm not sure whether or not I think those should be as the second or third C though.

Theis has just performed better so far, especially on defense. Kanter hasn't had many chances yet, but overall I don't worry about the teams offense as much as the defense. He's an offensive C and I don't think that's the primary need from the position given the rest of the C's roster.

[bdm860]

Here's the problem with using any Kanter stats right now for +/-, net rating, on/off, anything like that.

44% of Kanter's minutes are from the 14 point loss to Philly, the team's only loss and lowest scoring game of the season by far.  That's going to greatly impact the numbers until he gets a few more games under his belt.

Theis and the Williamses have only 5%-8% of their minutes being from that one bad game.

All the other players are benefiting from the winning streak, while Kanter is the only one really being penalized for the loss.

Unless the argument is we lost in Philly because of Kanter, and went on the winning streak because he wasn't there, it's not fair to use these stats yet.  Give it a few more games.

[Fafnir]

Grant is only 6'7. 6' 5"

Fixed that for you.

Look at the Wizards game, Beal is right next to him on a couple of plays and its clear Grant is not much taller.

[jambr380]

As SL pointed out, his minutes so far have either come against Embiid or in a game that the Cs gave up by far the most points they have this season (yes, some of this could be his fault).

The sample size is so small on Kanter - even compared to everybody else - that it really isn't worth looking at right now. Kanter was never brought here for his defense; I just want to see him give an effort on that end.

Preferably, he should be coming off the bench where he can legitimately help carry the scoring load with a pretty rough looking 2nd unit. His offensive rebounding is already proving to pay dividends and baskets scored off those rebounds aren't even taking shots away from other guys. He is making like $5M this year and his signing was huge at the time when there were question marks about Theis and Williams. At the very least, he brings a different look to the line-up and he should be getting at least an 8 minute stint each half.

Not totally related, but his personality is also awesome, too. Having upbeat, positive guys like him and Kemba instead of the players who have moved on has really helped this team. Permanently sitting him on the bench could have a detrimental effect to that new chemistry he is helping build.

[Fafnir]

I don't see any reason why not

I was noticing the weaknesses in his defense last night which definitely exist, but I also feel he helps more than he hurts. He's a good rebounder, good at holding down his position and is the most experienced of all the centers we have.

The issue is that so far he doesn't, really. 

And the question is more: Does Kanter help more than some other center (Theis, Grant, Poirier, Timelord) would help?

The answer so far seems to be: No.

Theis and Timelord are both 6'8 so they're undersized centers.

I always forget the part of basketball where the team with the tallest/heaviest player gets an extra 10 points at the end of the game. I usually tune out after they award the 10 points for the most mini-game wins.