Opinion: The Bucks are in Trouble

[bellerephon]

I don’t think Semi is any sort of stopper. He’s a good defender, can switch onto most players, and is very strong. He’s not an elite defender, however. If Jaylen had been able to play Semi would have played a lot less in this game.

[Fafnir]

Bucks looked awfully tough that first half.  I wouldn't sleep on them.  If I thought for real that Semi is a true Freak Stopper, I'd be pretty invested in not losing him.  I know a lot here aren't that high on him given his limitations. But if he has emerged as a serious momentum stopper of some teams' number 1  I think there is huge value there. Fun seeing he and Smart on the court together defensively in short stints.

They shot 45% from 3 in the first half, 65% in the first quarter. I was listening to the Lowe post and he mentioned their paint shots were down a lot compared to last year. Which perhaps explains why they lost their two big leads to lose those two games. Far more dependent so far on their three point shooting hitting than they were last year.

[RPGenerate]

I think losing Brogdon makes this Buck's team a more inconsistent 3pt shooting team, and in turn will make it harder for Giannis in the paint.

[mr. dee]

Typical Bud team. I remember Hawks regressing too after that 60 win season. I think its more of teams finally figuring out how to play against them, along with losing important pieces.

[action781]

... and they know it.

This is something I've thought for a while now, but there is a serious problem with their roster construction.

Almost every player that plays rotation minutes for them is among the slowest in the league: Middleton, Illyasova, Lopez, Lopez, Matthews, Korver, and Hill. Giannis is obviously amazing, but Bledsoe is very inconsistent, especially in big games. That just leaves players like Pat, Brown, Wilson, and Bender.

All that means that they are forced to shoot a lot of jumpshots and they really struggle to defend. Against quick teams like the Cs, they are hoping they can lure ball-handlers into no-man's land and get swallowed up by the Lopez brothers at the rim. The problem is that if the opposing team is able/willing to move the ball, it gets everyone out of position and a step slow.

Come playoff time, this team will struggle to defend and will struggle to hit their shots without another player to stir their offense.

It's not like the team has a lot of upside either. It will just get worse next year. Another year older. Another year slower. Without any youth to help Giannis.

The only concern I have as a Celtic fan is if the Bucks make a trade for Chris Paul. They would be a much tougher out this year, but they would also get older and their window would get smaller. The Bucks actually don't have many trade packages that could work. A crazy 4-1 or 5-1 with Bledsoe and Hill as the core pieces would get it close. The other option is to trade Middleton.

I really think we might be seeing the beginning of the end of Giannis in Milwaukee.

I think you're overrating speed.  The 2011 Dallas Mavericks were an incredibly slow team, but beat teams with quick and smart passing -- often based on one guy like Barea beating his man and then forcing the defense into scrambling rotations.  They started 37 year old Jason Kidd, Deshawn Stevenson, 32 year old Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, and Tyson Chandler.  And they beat probably the fastest team in the league in the NBA Finals with ball movement and jumpshooting -- two things that the Bucks are quite good at.  Their defense seemed to hold up just fine too, just like the Bucks did last season (#1 defensive rating in NBA).

[Fierce1]

... and they know it.

This is something I've thought for a while now, but there is a serious problem with their roster construction.

Almost every player that plays rotation minutes for them is among the slowest in the league: Middleton, Illyasova, Lopez, Lopez, Matthews, Korver, and Hill. Giannis is obviously amazing, but Bledsoe is very inconsistent, especially in big games. That just leaves players like Pat, Brown, Wilson, and Bender.

All that means that they are forced to shoot a lot of jumpshots and they really struggle to defend. Against quick teams like the Cs, they are hoping they can lure ball-handlers into no-man's land and get swallowed up by the Lopez brothers at the rim. The problem is that if the opposing team is able/willing to move the ball, it gets everyone out of position and a step slow.

Come playoff time, this team will struggle to defend and will struggle to hit their shots without another player to stir their offense.

It's not like the team has a lot of upside either. It will just get worse next year. Another year older. Another year slower. Without any youth to help Giannis.

The only concern I have as a Celtic fan is if the Bucks make a trade for Chris Paul. They would be a much tougher out this year, but they would also get older and their window would get smaller. The Bucks actually don't have many trade packages that could work. A crazy 4-1 or 5-1 with Bledsoe and Hill as the core pieces would get it close. The other option is to trade Middleton.

I really think we might be seeing the beginning of the end of Giannis in Milwaukee.

I think you're overrating speed.  The 2011 Dallas Mavericks were an incredibly slow team, but beat teams with quick and smart passing -- often based on one guy like Barea beating his man and then forcing the defense into scrambling rotations.  They started 37 year old Jason Kidd, Deshawn Stevenson, 32 year old Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, and Tyson Chandler.  And they beat probably the fastest team in the league in the NBA Finals with ball movement and jumpshooting -- two things that the Bucks are quite good at.  Their defense seemed to hold up just fine too, just like the Bucks did last season (#1 defensive rating in NBA).

When you have Tyson Chandler in the middle and Shawn Marion as one of the wing players, there's just no way that defense won't be solid, slow or not.

What the Celts are lacking right now is someone like Tyson Chandler.

[Fierce1]

I think losing Brogdon makes this Buck's team a more inconsistent 3pt shooting team, and in turn will make it harder for Giannis in the paint.

I said that too.

The Bucks were in trouble the moment Celtic killer Brogdon left them.

Not only is Brogdon a good 3-point shooter, he brings stability to the offense.
He always played well against the Celts.

[gouki88]

I think losing Brogdon makes this Buck's team a more inconsistent 3pt shooting team, and in turn will make it harder for Giannis in the paint.

I said that too.

The Bucks were in trouble the moment Celtic killer Brogdon left them.

Not only is Brogdon a good 3-point shooter, he brings stability to the offense.
He always played well against the Celts.

Yeah, elite efficiency from all over, and was a good guy for running the offence (which he is showing in Indiana). Bledsoe, on the other hand, is super inconsistent, and not that good.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

... and they know it.

This is something I've thought for a while now, but there is a serious problem with their roster construction.

Almost every player that plays rotation minutes for them is among the slowest in the league: Middleton, Illyasova, Lopez, Lopez, Matthews, Korver, and Hill. Giannis is obviously amazing, but Bledsoe is very inconsistent, especially in big games. That just leaves players like Pat, Brown, Wilson, and Bender.

All that means that they are forced to shoot a lot of jumpshots and they really struggle to defend. Against quick teams like the Cs, they are hoping they can lure ball-handlers into no-man's land and get swallowed up by the Lopez brothers at the rim. The problem is that if the opposing team is able/willing to move the ball, it gets everyone out of position and a step slow.

Come playoff time, this team will struggle to defend and will struggle to hit their shots without another player to stir their offense.

It's not like the team has a lot of upside either. It will just get worse next year. Another year older. Another year slower. Without any youth to help Giannis.

The only concern I have as a Celtic fan is if the Bucks make a trade for Chris Paul. They would be a much tougher out this year, but they would also get older and their window would get smaller. The Bucks actually don't have many trade packages that could work. A crazy 4-1 or 5-1 with Bledsoe and Hill as the core pieces would get it close. The other option is to trade Middleton.

I really think we might be seeing the beginning of the end of Giannis in Milwaukee.

I think you're overrating speed.  The 2011 Dallas Mavericks were an incredibly slow team, but beat teams with quick and smart passing -- often based on one guy like Barea beating his man and then forcing the defense into scrambling rotations.  They started 37 year old Jason Kidd, Deshawn Stevenson, 32 year old Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, and Tyson Chandler.  And they beat probably the fastest team in the league in the NBA Finals with ball movement and jumpshooting -- two things that the Bucks are quite good at.  Their defense seemed to hold up just fine too, just like the Bucks did last season (#1 defensive rating in NBA).

This is a really interesting and valid point. I would argue they were in a better position than the Bucks this year. Coaching, Dirk at the height of his powers vs Giannis, Kidd and Marion were elite defensive players even at that point in their career. Chandler found a special niche on that team too. That Mavs team also seems to be the anomaly and not the norm.

Still, good point. If the Bucks were locked in as a team, its not impossible to see a similar outcome.

[Fafnir]

I don't think you should be looking at a one off 2011 champion for how the NBA season will unfold. The league has changed massively since then, look at the pace, the shot distribution, and lineups team play now-a-days. 7 seconds or less would be a SLOW team now.

Especially given how transcendent Dirk had to be as a one man offensive wrecking machine to get them there. Can Giannis do that in the playoffs?

Even then, they still won the Finals because LeBron turned in one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen from a great player. It was Hardenesque how he let JJ Barea and DeShawn Stevenson make him passive and unsure of how to attack. Dallas earned their title, but like the 2004 Pistons they're the exception to the usual rule for successful title roster building.

[Somebody]

The 2011 Mavericks comparisons are way off base imo. Dirk was one of the great offensive anchors for playoff teams when he was at the peak of his powers in 2011 - he combined resilient scoring with low turnovers to become one of the best scoring machines in the second season. Giannis is kind of the opposite, his scoring dips in the playoffs due to his deficiencies on that end but still manages to have a massive impact on games due to his passing to unlock the potential of good teammates alongside his defense and rebounding. A squad like the Bucks this year and the 2011 Mavs need resilient playoff scoring in the mould of a Dirk/Kawhi/Gervin/King type, not a unicorn who impacts the game in multiple facets of the game like Giannis to succeed in the playoffs.

[action781]

The OP mentioned that Bucks' slowness is their serious problem.  The Mavs might not be the "perfect comparison" for the Bucks (is there ever one?), but there are similarities -- particularly in the defensive slowness of each team.

Tyson Chandler was a phenomenal paint protector that anchored the Mavs defense.  Brook Lopez played that role pretty well last year averaging a career high 2.5 blocks per game.  Giannis actually helps in that area too (much better than Dirk could). 

Marion and Kidd were good perimeter defenders for the Mavs, while being slow each at age 32+.  The same can be said for Khris Middleton and George Hill as not super fast, but still intelligent and solid defenders.

The Mavs certainly were a special team and you could consider an anomaly in terms of championship teams.  But this is also a rare year where the NBA title is completely up for grabs.  I agree that the NBA has changed dramatically since 2011, but the Bucks have done a great job at tailoring their team to today's NBA (stretch on offense, length on defense).  I'm not sure they will come out of the East, as they have strong competition in Philly and Boston, but I wouldn't say they're in trouble.  At least not for this season.

[keevsnick]

I don't think you should be looking at a one off 2011 champion for how the NBA season will unfold. The league has changed massively since then, look at the pace, the shot distribution, and lineups team play now-a-days. 7 seconds or less would be a SLOW team now.

Especially given how transcendent Dirk had to be as a one man offensive wrecking machine to get them there. Can Giannis do that in the playoffs?

Even then, they still won the Finals because LeBron turned in one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen from a great player. It was Hardenesque how he let JJ Barea and DeShawn Stevenson make him passive and unsure of how to attack. Dallas earned their title, but like the 2004 Pistons they're the exception to the usual rule for successful title roster building.

Yes he can. I mean is everyone forgetting that the bucks went too overtime in game 3 already up 2-0 in a best of seven series against the eventual champs? A couple bunces here and there its 3-0 and the series is essentially over. So ya, we essentially now that the Bucks model CAN work, we just dont know if it will this season.

[Fafnir]

I don't think you should be looking at a one off 2011 champion for how the NBA season will unfold. The league has changed massively since then, look at the pace, the shot distribution, and lineups team play now-a-days. 7 seconds or less would be a SLOW team now.

Especially given how transcendent Dirk had to be as a one man offensive wrecking machine to get them there. Can Giannis do that in the playoffs?

Even then, they still won the Finals because LeBron turned in one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen from a great player. It was Hardenesque how he let JJ Barea and DeShawn Stevenson make him passive and unsure of how to attack. Dallas earned their title, but like the 2004 Pistons they're the exception to the usual rule for successful title roster building.

Yes he can. I mean is everyone forgetting that the bucks went too overtime in game 3 already up 2-0 in a best of seven series against the eventual champs? A couple bunces here and there its 3-0 and the series is essentially over. So ya, we essentially now that the Bucks model CAN work, we just dont know if it will this season.

He got his but kicked 4 games in a row being rendered an absolute non-factor in the half-court. In that OT game he had 12 points in 44 minutes. George Hill and Brogdon carried the team to that near game 3 win. Context matters!

Its a strange thing to say last year showed he can do what Dirk did and carry a playoff offense against the elite teams. He got his ass kicked 4 games in a row when his team needed him to get buckets in the halfcourt.

[keevsnick]

I don't think you should be looking at a one off 2011 champion for how the NBA season will unfold. The league has changed massively since then, look at the pace, the shot distribution, and lineups team play now-a-days. 7 seconds or less would be a SLOW team now.

Especially given how transcendent Dirk had to be as a one man offensive wrecking machine to get them there. Can Giannis do that in the playoffs?

Even then, they still won the Finals because LeBron turned in one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen from a great player. It was Hardenesque how he let JJ Barea and DeShawn Stevenson make him passive and unsure of how to attack. Dallas earned their title, but like the 2004 Pistons they're the exception to the usual rule for successful title roster building.

Yes he can. I mean is everyone forgetting that the bucks went too overtime in game 3 already up 2-0 in a best of seven series against the eventual champs? A couple bunces here and there its 3-0 and the series is essentially over. So ya, we essentially now that the Bucks model CAN work, we just dont know if it will this season.

He got his but kicked 4 games in a row being rendered an absolute non-factor in the half-court. In that OT game he had 12 points in 44 minutes. George Hill and Brogdon carried the team to that near game 3 win. Context matters!

Its a strange thing to say last year showed he can do what Dirk did and carry a playoff offense against the elite teams. He got his ass kicked 4 games in a row when his team needed him to get buckets in the halfcourt.

And I think it's strange to say he can't when he was one overtime win away from almost certainly winning that series and the only guy who could stop him now plays in the western conference.

Like maybe he isn't the unstoppable offensive force dirk was, but nobody on the 08 celtics was either and they won once and came really close two years later. So clearly when you have and MVP DPOY candidate there are ways to can work.