Tatum is playing great. He just isn't knocking down 2 point shots or finishing well right now in the very small sample size of 4 games. He previously has shot 2 pointers at a 48% clip but is doing it at 31% right now. He previously has closed at the rim at 66%. Right now he is at 43%.
When his 2 point shooting and finishing numbers start to become closer to his average numbers, if he is still being aggressive but smart about his offense and hitting 3's at a rate like his rookie year, Tatum is going to be averaging 26+ points a game.
To play devils advocate I'd say all that happening is probably easier said than done. Like I have no doubt he will eventually hit more than 35% of his 2pnt shots, and he will hit better than 47% at the rim, but I'm not sure he'll hit 66% at the rim like he has traditionally mostly because its very hard to increase volume and maintain conversation rate. The shots he was taken before were sort of the low hanging fruit stuff you should finish. half court off the dribble stuff is generally a much harder finish, and he's doing that a lot more now. To me he's kind of where Jaylen was beginning of last year which is he's getting to the rim a lot and now he needs to learn how to use angles, vary dribble speed, up fakes ect to generate space. Jaylen has made obvious improvements at those things, we'll see if Tatum does as well.
To me what is gonna determine Tatums upside is his ability to generate FT's, and his passing ability. His rookie year he had a FTR of 31%. Last year was 22%. So far this year 17%. basically he has shot more every year without actually generating more FTA's. By comparison PG is 31%, Kawhi is 32% and KD is at 41% for their careers. Now of course plenty of time for that to go way up, and if he keeps attacking the rim it probably will. And the passing ability we just have to wait and see. His assist percentage is 9.1% tis year, a tad lower than 10.0% last year. But again these numbers take a while to stabilize, its just something to keep an eye on.
I don't mean to seem down on Tatum, I still wouldn't trade him for anybody but KAT (okay and Doncic). Its just that like any 21 yo he has stuff that has t improve if he's gonna be the guy C's fan wnat him too.
