Shaughnessy: "For this year's Celtics, optimism may be trumping reality"

[mobilija]

One thing I keep coming back to is how does Walker make us better than Kyrie.  I don't think he will shoot better or defend better.  Is he going to create for others any better? I get he will be much less of a distraction off the court, but how many wins does that get you on it?

Kemba is good.  Kyrie was poison. That simple.

But what specifically will Kemba do more effectively than what Kyrie did?  Are we really going to win more games because we no longer have Kyrie's baggage?  Or is it something else?

Just my eyeball test, maybe there is statistical info to back it up, but I'd rather have Kemba in clutch/gotta have a basket situations. I could be wrong.

I also echo footey's chemistry and coach undermining comments.

Edit: Quick look on NBA.com shows Kemba 13th, Kyrie 22nd and... Smart 16th! For guards

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

[aefgogreen]

One thing I keep coming back to is how does Walker make us better than Kyrie.  I don't think he will shoot better or defend better.  Is he going to create for others any better? I get he will be much less of a distraction off the court, but how many wins does that get you on it?

Kemba is good.  Kyrie was poison. That simple.

But what specifically will Kemba do more effectively than what Kyrie did?  Are we really going to win more games because we no longer have Kyrie's baggage?  Or is it something else?

You mean besides not undermine the coach and ruin the team chemistry?

But I think he undermined him more off the court with his comments - I haven't seen any evidence he was contradicting orders during games.  I also don't think we lost any games because of his comments.

[mmmmm]

One thing I keep coming back to is how does Walker make us better than Kyrie.  I don't think he will shoot better or defend better.  Is he going to create for others any better? I get he will be much less of a distraction off the court, but how many wins does that get you on it?

Kemba is good.  Kyrie was poison. That simple.

But what specifically will Kemba do more effectively than what Kyrie did?  Are we really going to win more games because we no longer have Kyrie's baggage?  Or is it something else?

You mean besides not undermine the coach and ruin the team chemistry?

But I think he undermined him more off the court with his comments - I haven't seen any evidence he was contradicting orders during games.  I also don't think we lost any games because of his comments.

Both Rozier and Baynes made comments after the season about how the team would practice one way and then during the game that would get abandoned.   Given that Kyrie was the lead ball-handler the implication seemed pretty clear.

As for off-the court stuff, Marcus Morris just recently had this to say:

According to Morris, though, there’s a major difference in the locker-room dynamic: The Knicks don’t have to cater to a superstar the way Boston did for Kyrie Irving.
“The teams are different. We don’t have that one guy where it’s like, okay, he’s first,” Morris said. “It’s a team thing. No knock on Ky, but obviously he’s a superstar, he’s first. Sometimes his emotions were put in front of the team. I think here, we’re all transparent with each other. We can all go up to each other and be honest with each other. That’s the biggest thing, when you can go out and speak to your brother.”

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/ny-marcus-morris-kyrie-irving-boston-celtics-locker-room-20191021-cisa6tvjzrh3blaitezvhymnh4-story.html

[Kuberski33]

One thing that's guaranteed with Shaughessy - he'll never take the optimistic angle for any story.  Haven't read any of his columns in years.

[ETNCeltics]

Perhaps it escaped his attention that Kyrie couldn't carry the team, either.

I have significant hope that Kemba will dramatically improve the team's attitude, which leads to better defense and ball movement. But is he as talented as Kyrie? No, Kyrie is one of the best closers in the game and can get a good shot almost anytime he wants. Kemba isn't that far behind him in that regard, and with Kemba, at least there's the hope our team won't be a dysfunctional mess.

And has anyone predicted finals? I don't see unbridled optimism anywhere with this team. I see cautious optimism and hope for the future, but I haven't seen anyone  - either amongst fans or in the local press - who thinks we have anything other than a puncher's chance at the finals.

[mobilija]

Perhaps it escaped his attention that Kyrie couldn't carry the team, either.

I have significant hope that Kemba will dramatically improve the team's attitude, which leads to better defense and ball movement. But is he as talented as Kyrie? No, Kyrie is one of the best closers in the game and can get a good shot almost anytime he wants. Kemba isn't that far behind him in that regard, and with Kemba, at least there's the hope our team won't be a dysfunctional mess.

And has anyone predicted finals? I don't see unbridled optimism anywhere with this team. I see cautious optimism and hope for the future, but I haven't seen anyone  - either amongst fans or in the local press - who thinks we have anything other than a puncher's chance at the finals.

NBA Clutch stats beg to differ...See my above post

[mmmmm]

Perhaps it escaped his attention that Kyrie couldn't carry the team, either.

I have significant hope that Kemba will dramatically improve the team's attitude, which leads to better defense and ball movement. But is he as talented as Kyrie? No, Kyrie is one of the best closers in the game and can get a good shot almost anytime he wants. Kemba isn't that far behind him in that regard, and with Kemba, at least there's the hope our team won't be a dysfunctional mess.

And has anyone predicted finals? I don't see unbridled optimism anywhere with this team. I see cautious optimism and hope for the future, but I haven't seen anyone  - either amongst fans or in the local press - who thinks we have anything other than a puncher's chance at the finals.

I agree with your characterization.   I think "a puncher's chance" adequately describes this team.   Not a title favorite and they shouldn't be.  But they have the ability to hoop and if everything went just right it wouldn't be insane for this team to go pretty far.   Call it a "hooper's chance".

[mmmmm]

Perhaps it escaped his attention that Kyrie couldn't carry the team, either.

I have significant hope that Kemba will dramatically improve the team's attitude, which leads to better defense and ball movement. But is he as talented as Kyrie? No, Kyrie is one of the best closers in the game and can get a good shot almost anytime he wants. Kemba isn't that far behind him in that regard, and with Kemba, at least there's the hope our team won't be a dysfunctional mess.

And has anyone predicted finals? I don't see unbridled optimism anywhere with this team. I see cautious optimism and hope for the future, but I haven't seen anyone  - either amongst fans or in the local press - who thinks we have anything other than a puncher's chance at the finals.

NBA Clutch stats beg to differ...See my above post

Your link goes to a table that is sorted by number of Games Played.  Playing in a lot of games that came down to 'clutch' time doesn't make you better than being _really good_ during clutch time in fewer games.     You also didn't filter for guys who only played a little or had low USG during clutch time.

I filtered down to a minimum of 30 games with clutch time, minimum of 20% USG rate and sorted by scoring efficiency (TS%).

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=TS_PCT&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G&CF=USG_PCT*GE*20:GP*GE*30

With that filter, Kemba does come out well, ranked 8th.   But Kyrie did come out at 3rd.   Of course, looking at the results, it begs whether the USG filter should be higher, since Collison comes out at the top over 2nd place Harden & Kyrie, but with a much lower USG.   If we filter down to just high (30%+) USG clutch players, then the ranking would fall out as:

Harden
Kyrie
Lou Williams
Mike Conley
Kemba
DeAngelo Russell
Beal
Trae Young (tie)
Doncic(tie)

Which are some names I think most folks would agree are all pretty good 'clutch' scorers.

The above doesn't of course, add in the value of assists or subtract for turnovers.   Kyrie and Kemba both would get a small bump up if we factored those in.

[mobilija]

Perhaps it escaped his attention that Kyrie couldn't carry the team, either.

I have significant hope that Kemba will dramatically improve the team's attitude, which leads to better defense and ball movement. But is he as talented as Kyrie? No, Kyrie is one of the best closers in the game and can get a good shot almost anytime he wants. Kemba isn't that far behind him in that regard, and with Kemba, at least there's the hope our team won't be a dysfunctional mess.

And has anyone predicted finals? I don't see unbridled optimism anywhere with this team. I see cautious optimism and hope for the future, but I haven't seen anyone  - either amongst fans or in the local press - who thinks we have anything other than a puncher's chance at the finals.

NBA Clutch stats beg to differ...See my above post

Your link goes to a table that is sorted by number of Games Played.  Playing in a lot of games that came down to 'clutch' time doesn't make you better than being _really good_ during clutch time in fewer games.     You also didn't filter for guys who only played a little or had low USG during clutch time.

I filtered down to a minimum of 30 games with clutch time, minimum of 20% USG rate and sorted by scoring efficiency (TS%).

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=TS_PCT&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G&CF=USG_PCT*GE*20:GP*GE*30

With that filter, Kemba does come out well, ranked 8th.   But Kyrie did come out at 3rd.   Of course, looking at the results, it begs whether the USG filter should be higher, since Collison comes out at the top over 2nd place Harden & Kyrie, but with a much lower USG.   If we filter down to just high (30%+) USG clutch players, then the ranking would fall out as:

Harden
Kyrie
Lou Williams
Mike Conley
Kemba
DeAngelo Russell
Beal
Trae Young (tie)
Doncic(tie)

Which are some names I think most folks would agree are all pretty good 'clutch' scorers.

The above doesn't of course, add in the value of assists or subtract for turnovers.   Kyrie and Kemba both would get a small bump up if we factored those in.

Cool. Thank you. I just did a quickie sort...didnt have time or patience to mess with filters etc.

I was confident someone more stat savy would come along and either debunk or strengthen my claim. TP.

Is that usg% during clutch time or usg% in general?
Both these players got used a lot, so not sure it matters, but think it a bit unfair to include bc perhaps some given player is being unfairly unused. Not sure that makes any sense...

Also think turnovers and assists would be important to factor in, and wouldn't necessarily assume that it would bump up both players.

[knuckleballer]

One thing that's guaranteed with Shaughessy - he'll never take the optimistic angle for any story.  Haven't read any of his columns in years.

I stopped reading him about a decade ago.  After the Celtics struggles of the 90's and early 2000's, the Patriots being a sorry franchise for so long, the Bruins' struggles, and the Red Sox long drought, his pessimism was understandable at one time.  I thought he was a talented sports writer.  But then came all the winning, an absurd amount of winning for the area's teams, and he remained a pessimistic ****.  Almost never a kind or positive thing to say.  No thanks. 

[Spicoli]

I'm optimistic about this teams chances but with a few caveats. I think the rookies (minus Langford since the jury is still out on him) are waaaaay better than i thought they would be. I think Waters, Williams, and Edwards are all ready to contribute right away. What i'm trying to say is, i think this teams ceiling increases if these guys are unleashed. A trade of Wannamaker, Ojeleye, and possibly Kanter should do the trick. Maybe some sort of consolidation trade. All i know is, these 3 rookies need to play. The other caveat is Timelord needs to be thrown into the fire. He is the only center on the roster with upside. We need to see what we have with him. If he pans out, he could significantly raise this teams ceiling.

So in summary, i think this season can go better than expected if we make a consolidation trade, and allow Timelord to give the center position his best shot.

[gouki88]

There is a difference between having less talent and having a worse team.  In reality, I'm not sure they even have less talent.  Sure KW and EK have less talent than KI and AH, but they added Poirier, and those draft picks over baynes and Yabu.  They certainly upgraded talent at the bottom of the roster, while losing some at the top.  Time will tell, but I can very easily see a better team(more wins) despite less high end talent due to fit, improvements in the JT, JB, GH type players, and better end of roster talent.

Top end talent is what wins in the playoffs though.  The team easily could have more wins than last year in the regular season, but be a worse team come playoff time.  And I'm not so sure the bottom of the roster is actually better.  I mean Theis was basically like the 10th or 11th man last year, and he appears that he is starting this year.  Semi and Wanamaker have seemingly moved up the depth chart a bit as well.  The simple truth is Irving, Horford, Baynes, Morris, and Rozier were basically replaced by Walker, Kanter, Poirier, G. Williams, and Edwards/Langford.  That is a downgrade at every single one of those slots.

Now if Hayward can actually look like Utah Hayward, the team has a chance to be better than last year (even playoff better), but he certainly didn't look like Utah Hayward in the preseason. 

Boston projects as an upper 40's win team and 2nd round at best type team.  They could pretty realistically fall anywhere from 3rd to 9th in the conference in the regular season and could quite easily lose in the 1st round depending on the match-up (even as the 3rd seed).

This post makes it seem as if we were a good playoff team last season. We were far from that.

Even less talented variations of this team over the last 5 years have been better than what our “top-heavy” team last season was able to be.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I know it starts a conversation, but don't know why anyone would care for what Shaughnessy has to say about the Celtics (or about anything for that matter).

[mmmmm]

Perhaps it escaped his attention that Kyrie couldn't carry the team, either.

I have significant hope that Kemba will dramatically improve the team's attitude, which leads to better defense and ball movement. But is he as talented as Kyrie? No, Kyrie is one of the best closers in the game and can get a good shot almost anytime he wants. Kemba isn't that far behind him in that regard, and with Kemba, at least there's the hope our team won't be a dysfunctional mess.

And has anyone predicted finals? I don't see unbridled optimism anywhere with this team. I see cautious optimism and hope for the future, but I haven't seen anyone  - either amongst fans or in the local press - who thinks we have anything other than a puncher's chance at the finals.

NBA Clutch stats beg to differ...See my above post

Your link goes to a table that is sorted by number of Games Played.  Playing in a lot of games that came down to 'clutch' time doesn't make you better than being _really good_ during clutch time in fewer games.     You also didn't filter for guys who only played a little or had low USG during clutch time.

I filtered down to a minimum of 30 games with clutch time, minimum of 20% USG rate and sorted by scoring efficiency (TS%).

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=TS_PCT&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G&CF=USG_PCT*GE*20:GP*GE*30

With that filter, Kemba does come out well, ranked 8th.   But Kyrie did come out at 3rd.   Of course, looking at the results, it begs whether the USG filter should be higher, since Collison comes out at the top over 2nd place Harden & Kyrie, but with a much lower USG.   If we filter down to just high (30%+) USG clutch players, then the ranking would fall out as:

Harden
Kyrie
Lou Williams
Mike Conley
Kemba
DeAngelo Russell
Beal
Trae Young (tie)
Doncic(tie)

Which are some names I think most folks would agree are all pretty good 'clutch' scorers.

The above doesn't of course, add in the value of assists or subtract for turnovers.   Kyrie and Kemba both would get a small bump up if we factored those in.

Cool. Thank you. I just did a quickie sort...didnt have time or patience to mess with filters etc.

I was confident someone more stat savy would come along and either debunk or strengthen my claim. TP.

Is that usg% during clutch time or usg% in general?

It's USG during clutch time.

Both these players got used a lot, so not sure it matters, but think it a bit unfair to include bc perhaps some given player is being unfairly unused. Not sure that makes any sense...

Also think turnovers and assists would be important to factor in, and wouldn't necessarily assume that it would bump up both players.

The reason I think it would is that both had good assist/to ratios.   But ultimately this starts to get into the noise since 'clutch play' stats are by definition small-sample.

Getting too much caught up in the individual ranking would miss the larger point -- that both Kyrie AND Kemba and the names I just listed were ALL really great clutch time scorers.

[Scottiej23]

Recent article from Shaughnessy recently also expressing his disappointment in puppy dogs, rainbows and lollipops.

Although I do note the irony of him being lambasted for being pessimistic. The average game thread here is a million times less positive than anything he is capable of writing.