Is Ainge too concerned with a high floor when drafting

[NKY fan]

How have other GMs, who qualify, drafting in the same pick range in the same date range faired? 

I guess how does Ainge stack up against the likes of Pop/Buford, Riley, Paxson/Forman,  Nelson,  Morey,  Presti, etc.... done?

Ya this is the question.  It sounds like you're only comparing Ainge to himself.  What's the hit % of a good drafter?  What's the hit % of an average drafter?

Also just really hard to define hit.  I feel like you alluded to your this flaw in your metrics, but then still look right passed it.  You look at games/minutes/mpg, but team situation affects this hugely.

especially if you look at Minutes per Game / total games or total minutes (the last 2 may be affected by injuries / contending teams but you cant be out of the league after one season)

Is Craig Brackens (drafted #21 in 2010, played 17 games, 121 minutes, 7.1mpg) more of a hit than Fab Melo?  I feel like your method would say yes. 

And because of this, I feel like using quintiles/percentiles is the wrong method here.  How much difference is there in a player at different percentiles?  Is a player at the bottom 1 percentile that different than a player at the bottom 20th percentile or the bottom 30th percentile?

Kyle Weaver (#38 in '08, 73 games, 18.9 mpg)
Jeff Taylor (#31 in '12, 132 games, 19.4mpg)
Chris Singleton (#18 in '11, 148 games, 17.6mpg)

I think your method would have these guys all ranked much higher than those bottom 7 Celtics.  But are they really any better or less of a bust?  They're all out of the league, and as far as I know never contributed anything to winning basketball or were used as an asset.

In fact looked at your bottom 7 guys vs the other 7, is the only difference between Yabusele and Zizic right now is that Zizic played on a bad team last year?

All of the ones you mentioned are bad picks and it is hard to say which one is a better pick compared to other bad picks. I am working on a graph that compares DA vs Morrey vs Pop/Bufford and the average performer in the cohort. I am thinking to compare %iles of total minutes / MpG and WS per 48...I didn't compare individual picks but look at which quin-tile a GM tend to be picking... I also did this in less than an hour so its not perfect

[mmmmm]

I think if you go back and look at each pick and then compare how they've done relative to their draft slot in the draft they were taken at, you'll find that Danny has returned pretty positive value out of the draft.

Yes, there have been some misses.  Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson didn't return a lot of value. 

But there have been a lot of very clear successes.

2006 Rondo was picked at #21 but has returned the 5th most Win Shares of his draft class.  In that same draft, Danny traded also for #49 pick Leon Powe who despite only playing just 5 years STILL is ranked 18th in Win Shares for that draft class.

2007 The next year, he traded #5 pick Jeff Green for Ray Allen.  That's a huge return out of the draft.   Okay, that's not in the 10+ range being discussed, but along with Ray he also got #35 pick Glen Davis.  Davis went on to accrue the 21st most Win Shares of his draft class, and that was in only 8 seasons.

2008 Giddens at #30 returned the typical return of his draft slot:  Pretty much nothing.

2010 Avery Bradley, picked at #19, has accrued the 15th most Win Shares of his draft class -- and was MUCH higher up the rankings during his career in green.

2011 The aforementioned JJJ was, in hindsight, not a good pick.  Though Danny also picked E'Twaun Moore out of that draft at #55, who has gone on to have a very solid career in the NBA, currently ranked 23rd in WS for that class.

2012 Okay, sure, Fab was a bust.  But Sullinger at 21, for the 5 years he was in the NBA returned 15.3 Win Shares and while he was with Boston was clearly one of the top 10 players out of that draft ... yes, he couldn't stay conditioned and is now eating rice balls in China.  But we got a heck of a lot of value out of that pick.

2013 Everybody complains that he took Olynyk (13) instead of Giannis.  Fine.  But regardless, Olynyk was still a solid pick and has gone on to accrue the 7th most Win Shares of that draft class.   Again, we got a lot of value out of that pick.

2014 James Young at #17.   Sigh.  I'm convinced to this day that Danny really wanted Nurkic, who was taken at #16.   It's hard to expect much of anything out of a #17 pick but yeah, Young was probably a bust.  Sad.  He would show flashes and then ... do nothing.

2015 RJ Hunter (#28) and Mickey (#33) ended up as worth less than their draft slots.  But Rozier (#16) ended up being hugely valuable through his 3rd year, especially if you add in playoff Win Shares.  And even with his not-so-fun last season, he's still ranked 13th in regular season WS for his class and perhaps more importantly, proved very valuable as a salary in trade to help bring in Kemba.  As a probable starter for Charlotte, he'll likely accrue excess value for a #16 pick.

2016 After Jaylen at #3, this draft was a case of too-many-picks.  Danny picked for stash (Yabu and Zizic) and traded away #31 & #35.   None has returned much value.  Yabusele was on track to be an 'average' #16 pick after his first season, but then did nothing last year.  Zizic (#23) actually started to return decent value last year for CLE and probably will carve out a career as a journeyman big in the NBA.  He's currently ranked #21 in WS for that class.   The trades of #31 & #35 yielded the pick that was used to take Matisse Thybulle who was then traded for what became Carsen Edwards and another pick.

For more recent drafts, I think is too recent to really evaluate, though I think the end results on the last three drafts will prove pretty positive.

So there have actually been quite a few players that Danny has picked outside of the top 10 that have provided a lot of value -- especially to the Celtics -- above their draft slot.   And in some cases, Danny has been able to extract value out of the draft via trade when the player choices at slot weren't necessarily great.

Ultimately, the Cs have gotten to the playoffs 14 of 17 seasons since Danny took over.  That includes 5 trips to the Conference Finals or higher.   That has meant that most draft picks he's had (other than those he's acquired in trade) have been on the bottom half of the first round or later.  I personally don't see a lot of reason to complain.

[Scottiej23]

^...Best post I have read on here in a long time. TP.

[RPGenerate]

I like how everyone is gushing over our draft picks this year, yet Danny did exactly what this thread criticized him for; drafting players with high floors.

[mr. dee]

Danny's draft highlights in his entire GM career

Homeruns:

1. Rajon Rondo - 4x All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, 4x All-Defensive Team, Assist Leader, Steals leader
2. Tony Allen - 6x All-Defensive Team
3. Avery Bradley - 2x All-Defensive Team
4. Al Jefferson - All-NBA 3rd Team
5. Marcus Smart - 1st All-Defensive Team and counting

Aside from Al, Danny have a great record of drafting stud defensive guards. I expect good things from Edwards and Waters as they have shown flashes. Even guys like E'Twaun Moore and Gerald Green found a niche on the league. Delonte West was also solid rotational player.

Danny's weakness is drafting bigs. It's a hit or miss for him. He may have drafted Big Al, but he also drafted guys like Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson. Sully, Powe and Gomes may have short NBA careers, but they were solid in the years they were in. So in short, he's average on this category. He have yet to hit big with big drafts. Grant, Time Lord and Tacko might be his ticket to redemption on this category if they develop into very good players.

He may not be Bufford or Jerry West, but he's no Billy King or Pitino either.  Besides, Danny have only missed the playoffs in 3 out of 16 seasons as a GM.

[slamtheking]

Danny's draft highlights in his entire GM career

Homeruns:

1. Rajon Rondo - 4x All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, 4x All-Defensive Team, Assist Leader, Steals leader
2. Tony Allen - 6x All-Defensive Team
3. Avery Bradley - 2x All-Defensive Team
4. Al Jefferson - All-NBA 3rd Team
5. Marcus Smart - 1st All-Defensive Team and counting

Aside from Al, Danny have a great record of drafting stud defensive guards. I expect good things from Edwards and Waters as they have shown flashes. Even guys like E'Twaun Moore and Gerald Green found a niche on the league. Delonte West was also solid rotational player.

Danny's weakness is drafting bigs. It's a hit or miss for him. He may have drafted Big Al, but he also drafted guys like Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson. Sully, Powe and Gomes may have short NBA careers, but they were solid in the years they were in. So in short, he's average on this category. He have yet to hit big with big drafts. Grant, Time Lord and Tacko might be his ticket to redemption on this category if they develop into very good players.

He may not be Bufford or Jerry West, but he's no Billy King or Pitino either.  Besides, Danny have only missed the playoffs in 3 out of 16 seasons as a GM.

you omitted Perk as a solid big man draft pick.  the deal with Memphis was set up beforehand where they were drafting for the C's.  also, love him or hate him, Olynyk was a solid pick.  unspectacular and the bane of all the Giannis-hindsight-is-20/20 armchair GMS but still a solid pick

Melo was widely considered a bust but JJJ was not.  JJJ had solid college credentials and the athleticism to succeed but apparently not the drive.  also, he was definitely considered BPA at the time of the pick.  I still have no issue with him taking JJJ.

[KG Living Legend]

I like how everyone is gushing over our draft picks this year, yet Danny did exactly what this thread criticized him for; drafting players with high floors.

 TP. Although I will say Carsen and Grant have decent ceiling's too.

 Romeo in theory has a high ceiling, But NAW, Brandon Clarke and Sekous all higher IMO

[mr. dee]

Danny's draft highlights in his entire GM career

Homeruns:

1. Rajon Rondo - 4x All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, 4x All-Defensive Team, Assist Leader, Steals leader
2. Tony Allen - 6x All-Defensive Team
3. Avery Bradley - 2x All-Defensive Team
4. Al Jefferson - All-NBA 3rd Team
5. Marcus Smart - 1st All-Defensive Team and counting

Aside from Al, Danny have a great record of drafting stud defensive guards. I expect good things from Edwards and Waters as they have shown flashes. Even guys like E'Twaun Moore and Gerald Green found a niche on the league. Delonte West was also solid rotational player.

Danny's weakness is drafting bigs. It's a hit or miss for him. He may have drafted Big Al, but he also drafted guys like Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson. Sully, Powe and Gomes may have short NBA careers, but they were solid in the years they were in. So in short, he's average on this category. He have yet to hit big with big drafts. Grant, Time Lord and Tacko might be his ticket to redemption on this category if they develop into very good players.

He may not be Bufford or Jerry West, but he's no Billy King or Pitino either.  Besides, Danny have only missed the playoffs in 3 out of 16 seasons as a GM.

you omitted Perk as a solid big man draft pick.  the deal with Memphis was set up beforehand where they were drafting for the C's.  also, love him or hate him, Olynyk was a solid pick.  unspectacular and the bane of all the Giannis-hindsight-is-20/20 armchair GMS but still a solid pick

Melo was widely considered a bust but JJJ was not.  JJJ had solid college credentials and the athleticism to succeed but apparently not the drive.  also, he was definitely considered BPA at the time of the pick.  I still have no issue with him taking JJJ.

Oh, yeah. How could I forget our friend Perk and Big Baby . Both were solid picks but they are more on the single hits rather than a home run.

[RockinRyA]

Danny's draft highlights in his entire GM career

Homeruns:

1. Rajon Rondo - 4x All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, 4x All-Defensive Team, Assist Leader, Steals leader
2. Tony Allen - 6x All-Defensive Team
3. Avery Bradley - 2x All-Defensive Team
4. Al Jefferson - All-NBA 3rd Team
5. Marcus Smart - 1st All-Defensive Team and counting

Aside from Al, Danny have a great record of drafting stud defensive guards. I expect good things from Edwards and Waters as they have shown flashes. Even guys like E'Twaun Moore and Gerald Green found a niche on the league. Delonte West was also solid rotational player.

Danny's weakness is drafting bigs. It's a hit or miss for him. He may have drafted Big Al, but he also drafted guys like Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson. Sully, Powe and Gomes may have short NBA careers, but they were solid in the years they were in. So in short, he's average on this category. He have yet to hit big with big drafts. Grant, Time Lord and Tacko might be his ticket to redemption on this category if they develop into very good players.

He may not be Bufford or Jerry West, but he's no Billy King or Pitino either.  Besides, Danny have only missed the playoffs in 3 out of 16 seasons as a GM.

you omitted Perk as a solid big man draft pick.  the deal with Memphis was set up beforehand where they were drafting for the C's.  also, love him or hate him, Olynyk was a solid pick.  unspectacular and the bane of all the Giannis-hindsight-is-20/20 armchair GMS but still a solid pick

Melo was widely considered a bust but JJJ was not.  JJJ had solid college credentials and the athleticism to succeed but apparently not the drive.  also, he was definitely considered BPA at the time of the pick.  I still have no issue with him taking JJJ.

Oh, yeah. How could I forget our friend Perk and Big Baby . Both were solid picks but they are more on the single hits rather than a home run.

You got a starting center on a championship team from the 27th pick. That is a home run.

[NKY fan]

I think if you go back and look at each pick and then compare how they've done relative to their draft slot in the draft they were taken at, you'll find that Danny has returned pretty positive value out of the draft.

Yes, there have been some misses.  Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson didn't return a lot of value. 

But there have been a lot of very clear successes.

2006 Rondo was picked at #21 but has returned the 5th most Win Shares of his draft class.  In that same draft, Danny traded also for #49 pick Leon Powe who despite only playing just 5 years STILL is ranked 18th in Win Shares for that draft class.

2007 The next year, he traded #5 pick Jeff Green for Ray Allen.  That's a huge return out of the draft.   Okay, that's not in the 10+ range being discussed, but along with Ray he also got #35 pick Glen Davis.  Davis went on to accrue the 21st most Win Shares of his draft class, and that was in only 8 seasons.

2008 Giddens at #30 returned the typical return of his draft slot:  Pretty much nothing.

2010 Avery Bradley, picked at #19, has accrued the 15th most Win Shares of his draft class -- and was MUCH higher up the rankings during his career in green.

2011 The aforementioned JJJ was, in hindsight, not a good pick.  Though Danny also picked E'Twaun Moore out of that draft at #55, who has gone on to have a very solid career in the NBA, currently ranked 23rd in WS for that class.

2012 Okay, sure, Fab was a bust.  But Sullinger at 21, for the 5 years he was in the NBA returned 15.3 Win Shares and while he was with Boston was clearly one of the top 10 players out of that draft ... yes, he couldn't stay conditioned and is now eating rice balls in China.  But we got a heck of a lot of value out of that pick.

2013 Everybody complains that he took Olynyk (13) instead of Giannis.  Fine.  But regardless, Olynyk was still a solid pick and has gone on to accrue the 7th most Win Shares of that draft class.   Again, we got a lot of value out of that pick.

2014 James Young at #17.   Sigh.  I'm convinced to this day that Danny really wanted Nurkic, who was taken at #16.   It's hard to expect much of anything out of a #17 pick but yeah, Young was probably a bust.  Sad.  He would show flashes and then ... do nothing.

2015 RJ Hunter (#28) and Mickey (#33) ended up as worth less than their draft slots.  But Rozier (#16) ended up being hugely valuable through his 3rd year, especially if you add in playoff Win Shares.  And even with his not-so-fun last season, he's still ranked 13th in regular season WS for his class and perhaps more importantly, proved very valuable as a salary in trade to help bring in Kemba.  As a probable starter for Charlotte, he'll likely accrue excess value for a #16 pick.

2016 After Jaylen at #3, this draft was a case of too-many-picks.  Danny picked for stash (Yabu and Zizic) and traded away #31 & #35.   None has returned much value.  Yabusele was on track to be an 'average' #16 pick after his first season, but then did nothing last year.  Zizic (#23) actually started to return decent value last year for CLE and probably will carve out a career as a journeyman big in the NBA.  He's currently ranked #21 in WS for that class.   The trades of #31 & #35 yielded the pick that was used to take Matisse Thybulle who was then traded for what became Carsen Edwards and another pick.

For more recent drafts, I think is too recent to really evaluate, though I think the end results on the last three drafts will prove pretty positive.

So there have actually been quite a few players that Danny has picked outside of the top 10 that have provided a lot of value -- especially to the Celtics -- above their draft slot.   And in some cases, Danny has been able to extract value out of the draft via trade when the player choices at slot weren't necessarily great.

Ultimately, the Cs have gotten to the playoffs 14 of 17 seasons since Danny took over.  That includes 5 trips to the Conference Finals or higher.   That has meant that most draft picks he's had (other than those he's acquired in trade) have been on the bottom half of the first round or later.  I personally don't see a lot of reason to complain.

You can justify individually any single pick after Rondo (and excluding Smart and two Js) and find a silver lining in each one of them. It is the accumulation of all the bad and bellow average picks in the middle of the draft that make it look bad.
Also on Olynic I actually like Kelly's game however this is the one pick that Danny didn't go for the high upside and picked him instead of Giannis ....like why the inconsistency Danny? 

[RockinRyA]

 

I think if you go back and look at each pick and then compare how they've done relative to their draft slot in the draft they were taken at, you'll find that Danny has returned pretty positive value out of the draft.

Yes, there have been some misses.  Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson didn't return a lot of value. 

But there have been a lot of very clear successes.

2006 Rondo was picked at #21 but has returned the 5th most Win Shares of his draft class.  In that same draft, Danny traded also for #49 pick Leon Powe who despite only playing just 5 years STILL is ranked 18th in Win Shares for that draft class.

2007 The next year, he traded #5 pick Jeff Green for Ray Allen.  That's a huge return out of the draft.   Okay, that's not in the 10+ range being discussed, but along with Ray he also got #35 pick Glen Davis.  Davis went on to accrue the 21st most Win Shares of his draft class, and that was in only 8 seasons.

2008 Giddens at #30 returned the typical return of his draft slot:  Pretty much nothing.

2010 Avery Bradley, picked at #19, has accrued the 15th most Win Shares of his draft class -- and was MUCH higher up the rankings during his career in green.

2011 The aforementioned JJJ was, in hindsight, not a good pick.  Though Danny also picked E'Twaun Moore out of that draft at #55, who has gone on to have a very solid career in the NBA, currently ranked 23rd in WS for that class.

2012 Okay, sure, Fab was a bust.  But Sullinger at 21, for the 5 years he was in the NBA returned 15.3 Win Shares and while he was with Boston was clearly one of the top 10 players out of that draft ... yes, he couldn't stay conditioned and is now eating rice balls in China.  But we got a heck of a lot of value out of that pick.

2013 Everybody complains that he took Olynyk (13) instead of Giannis.  Fine.  But regardless, Olynyk was still a solid pick and has gone on to accrue the 7th most Win Shares of that draft class.   Again, we got a lot of value out of that pick.

2014 James Young at #17.   Sigh.  I'm convinced to this day that Danny really wanted Nurkic, who was taken at #16.   It's hard to expect much of anything out of a #17 pick but yeah, Young was probably a bust.  Sad.  He would show flashes and then ... do nothing.

2015 RJ Hunter (#28) and Mickey (#33) ended up as worth less than their draft slots.  But Rozier (#16) ended up being hugely valuable through his 3rd year, especially if you add in playoff Win Shares.  And even with his not-so-fun last season, he's still ranked 13th in regular season WS for his class and perhaps more importantly, proved very valuable as a salary in trade to help bring in Kemba.  As a probable starter for Charlotte, he'll likely accrue excess value for a #16 pick.

2016 After Jaylen at #3, this draft was a case of too-many-picks.  Danny picked for stash (Yabu and Zizic) and traded away #31 & #35.   None has returned much value.  Yabusele was on track to be an 'average' #16 pick after his first season, but then did nothing last year.  Zizic (#23) actually started to return decent value last year for CLE and probably will carve out a career as a journeyman big in the NBA.  He's currently ranked #21 in WS for that class.   The trades of #31 & #35 yielded the pick that was used to take Matisse Thybulle who was then traded for what became Carsen Edwards and another pick.

For more recent drafts, I think is too recent to really evaluate, though I think the end results on the last three drafts will prove pretty positive.

So there have actually been quite a few players that Danny has picked outside of the top 10 that have provided a lot of value -- especially to the Celtics -- above their draft slot.   And in some cases, Danny has been able to extract value out of the draft via trade when the player choices at slot weren't necessarily great.

Ultimately, the Cs have gotten to the playoffs 14 of 17 seasons since Danny took over.  That includes 5 trips to the Conference Finals or higher.   That has meant that most draft picks he's had (other than those he's acquired in trade) have been on the bottom half of the first round or later.  I personally don't see a lot of reason to complain.

You can justify individually any single pick after Rondo (and excluding Smart and two Js) and find a silver lining in each one of them. It is the accumulation of all the bad and bellow average picks in the middle of the draft that make it look bad.
Also on Olynic I actually like Kelly's game however this is the one pick that Danny didn't go for the high upside and picked him instead of Giannis ....like why the inconsistency Danny? 

The middle of the draft is bound to give you a lot of variance. Also, Ainge has pretty much been the same, sometimes he goes for risks, sometimes not. That Olynyk draft is no exception. Also you fail to factor this, when you have lots of draft picks, you tend to gamble more often, hence the numbers will look like you have more miss than hits. This is why stacking up on draft picks is useful, because you have more chances of winning.

[Moranis]

I think if you go back and look at each pick and then compare how they've done relative to their draft slot in the draft they were taken at, you'll find that Danny has returned pretty positive value out of the draft.

Yes, there have been some misses.  Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson didn't return a lot of value. 

But there have been a lot of very clear successes.

2006 Rondo was picked at #21 but has returned the 5th most Win Shares of his draft class.  In that same draft, Danny traded also for #49 pick Leon Powe who despite only playing just 5 years STILL is ranked 18th in Win Shares for that draft class.

2007 The next year, he traded #5 pick Jeff Green for Ray Allen.  That's a huge return out of the draft.   Okay, that's not in the 10+ range being discussed, but along with Ray he also got #35 pick Glen Davis.  Davis went on to accrue the 21st most Win Shares of his draft class, and that was in only 8 seasons.

2008 Giddens at #30 returned the typical return of his draft slot:  Pretty much nothing.

2010 Avery Bradley, picked at #19, has accrued the 15th most Win Shares of his draft class -- and was MUCH higher up the rankings during his career in green.

2011 The aforementioned JJJ was, in hindsight, not a good pick.  Though Danny also picked E'Twaun Moore out of that draft at #55, who has gone on to have a very solid career in the NBA, currently ranked 23rd in WS for that class.

2012 Okay, sure, Fab was a bust.  But Sullinger at 21, for the 5 years he was in the NBA returned 15.3 Win Shares and while he was with Boston was clearly one of the top 10 players out of that draft ... yes, he couldn't stay conditioned and is now eating rice balls in China.  But we got a heck of a lot of value out of that pick.

2013 Everybody complains that he took Olynyk (13) instead of Giannis.  Fine.  But regardless, Olynyk was still a solid pick and has gone on to accrue the 7th most Win Shares of that draft class.   Again, we got a lot of value out of that pick.

2014 James Young at #17.   Sigh.  I'm convinced to this day that Danny really wanted Nurkic, who was taken at #16.   It's hard to expect much of anything out of a #17 pick but yeah, Young was probably a bust.  Sad.  He would show flashes and then ... do nothing.

2015 RJ Hunter (#28) and Mickey (#33) ended up as worth less than their draft slots.  But Rozier (#16) ended up being hugely valuable through his 3rd year, especially if you add in playoff Win Shares.  And even with his not-so-fun last season, he's still ranked 13th in regular season WS for his class and perhaps more importantly, proved very valuable as a salary in trade to help bring in Kemba.  As a probable starter for Charlotte, he'll likely accrue excess value for a #16 pick.

2016 After Jaylen at #3, this draft was a case of too-many-picks.  Danny picked for stash (Yabu and Zizic) and traded away #31 & #35.   None has returned much value.  Yabusele was on track to be an 'average' #16 pick after his first season, but then did nothing last year.  Zizic (#23) actually started to return decent value last year for CLE and probably will carve out a career as a journeyman big in the NBA.  He's currently ranked #21 in WS for that class.   The trades of #31 & #35 yielded the pick that was used to take Matisse Thybulle who was then traded for what became Carsen Edwards and another pick.

For more recent drafts, I think is too recent to really evaluate, though I think the end results on the last three drafts will prove pretty positive.

So there have actually been quite a few players that Danny has picked outside of the top 10 that have provided a lot of value -- especially to the Celtics -- above their draft slot.   And in some cases, Danny has been able to extract value out of the draft via trade when the player choices at slot weren't necessarily great.

Ultimately, the Cs have gotten to the playoffs 14 of 17 seasons since Danny took over.  That includes 5 trips to the Conference Finals or higher.   That has meant that most draft picks he's had (other than those he's acquired in trade) have been on the bottom half of the first round or later.  I personally don't see a lot of reason to complain.

You can justify individually any single pick after Rondo (and excluding Smart and two Js) and find a silver lining in each one of them. It is the accumulation of all the bad and bellow average picks in the middle of the draft that make it look bad.
Also on Olynic I actually like Kelly's game however this is the one pick that Danny didn't go for the high upside and picked him instead of Giannis ....like why the inconsistency Danny? 

The middle of the draft is bound to give you a lot of variance. Also, Ainge has pretty much been the same, sometimes he goes for risks, sometimes not. That Olynyk draft is no exception. Also you fail to factor this, when you have lots of draft picks, you tend to gamble more often, hence the numbers will look like you have more miss than hits. This is why stacking up on draft picks is useful, because you have more chances of winning.

I think his point is more that Ainge quite simply hasn't been winning since Rondo was selected when looking at picks in that range.  It would be one thing if he had those 7 awful picks but also had 7 of the better picks or even just 1 of the super-elite All NBA type players.  But Ainge doesn't have those.  He is missing or getting a single.  His best selection was Avery Bradley, who is a fine player and very good value for his draft spot, but he isn't moving the needle much. 

[keevsnick]

I think if we really wanted an answer the best way to do it would be to look at the win/shares of each player drafted by Ainge and compare to the average win shares of that draft slot for the last like 30 years.  Then see if his net is positive or negative.

Of course then you have to consider whether you wnat to penalize him for missing n somebody like Giannis, like Kelly Olynk is probably an above average pick for his slot but it still hurts because you passed on an MVP.

[NKY fan]

Here is how ainge stacks vs Pop and Morey.
More than half of the time the players that DA drafted ended up being ranked in the bottom 3rd by WS per 48. If Zizc has a couple stingers for Cleveland he may move to the lower 3rd as well.

 2 players that the spurs selected didn’t come to the nba so they are not ranked.
In general morey and pop tend to draft players that deliver WS per 48 in the top 3rd half of the time.
 

[RockinRyA]

I think if you go back and look at each pick and then compare how they've done relative to their draft slot in the draft they were taken at, you'll find that Danny has returned pretty positive value out of the draft.

Yes, there have been some misses.  Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson didn't return a lot of value. 

But there have been a lot of very clear successes.

2006 Rondo was picked at #21 but has returned the 5th most Win Shares of his draft class.  In that same draft, Danny traded also for #49 pick Leon Powe who despite only playing just 5 years STILL is ranked 18th in Win Shares for that draft class.

2007 The next year, he traded #5 pick Jeff Green for Ray Allen.  That's a huge return out of the draft.   Okay, that's not in the 10+ range being discussed, but along with Ray he also got #35 pick Glen Davis.  Davis went on to accrue the 21st most Win Shares of his draft class, and that was in only 8 seasons.

2008 Giddens at #30 returned the typical return of his draft slot:  Pretty much nothing.

2010 Avery Bradley, picked at #19, has accrued the 15th most Win Shares of his draft class -- and was MUCH higher up the rankings during his career in green.

2011 The aforementioned JJJ was, in hindsight, not a good pick.  Though Danny also picked E'Twaun Moore out of that draft at #55, who has gone on to have a very solid career in the NBA, currently ranked 23rd in WS for that class.

2012 Okay, sure, Fab was a bust.  But Sullinger at 21, for the 5 years he was in the NBA returned 15.3 Win Shares and while he was with Boston was clearly one of the top 10 players out of that draft ... yes, he couldn't stay conditioned and is now eating rice balls in China.  But we got a heck of a lot of value out of that pick.

2013 Everybody complains that he took Olynyk (13) instead of Giannis.  Fine.  But regardless, Olynyk was still a solid pick and has gone on to accrue the 7th most Win Shares of that draft class.   Again, we got a lot of value out of that pick.

2014 James Young at #17.   Sigh.  I'm convinced to this day that Danny really wanted Nurkic, who was taken at #16.   It's hard to expect much of anything out of a #17 pick but yeah, Young was probably a bust.  Sad.  He would show flashes and then ... do nothing.

2015 RJ Hunter (#28) and Mickey (#33) ended up as worth less than their draft slots.  But Rozier (#16) ended up being hugely valuable through his 3rd year, especially if you add in playoff Win Shares.  And even with his not-so-fun last season, he's still ranked 13th in regular season WS for his class and perhaps more importantly, proved very valuable as a salary in trade to help bring in Kemba.  As a probable starter for Charlotte, he'll likely accrue excess value for a #16 pick.

2016 After Jaylen at #3, this draft was a case of too-many-picks.  Danny picked for stash (Yabu and Zizic) and traded away #31 & #35.   None has returned much value.  Yabusele was on track to be an 'average' #16 pick after his first season, but then did nothing last year.  Zizic (#23) actually started to return decent value last year for CLE and probably will carve out a career as a journeyman big in the NBA.  He's currently ranked #21 in WS for that class.   The trades of #31 & #35 yielded the pick that was used to take Matisse Thybulle who was then traded for what became Carsen Edwards and another pick.

For more recent drafts, I think is too recent to really evaluate, though I think the end results on the last three drafts will prove pretty positive.

So there have actually been quite a few players that Danny has picked outside of the top 10 that have provided a lot of value -- especially to the Celtics -- above their draft slot.   And in some cases, Danny has been able to extract value out of the draft via trade when the player choices at slot weren't necessarily great.

Ultimately, the Cs have gotten to the playoffs 14 of 17 seasons since Danny took over.  That includes 5 trips to the Conference Finals or higher.   That has meant that most draft picks he's had (other than those he's acquired in trade) have been on the bottom half of the first round or later.  I personally don't see a lot of reason to complain.

You can justify individually any single pick after Rondo (and excluding Smart and two Js) and find a silver lining in each one of them. It is the accumulation of all the bad and bellow average picks in the middle of the draft that make it look bad.
Also on Olynic I actually like Kelly's game however this is the one pick that Danny didn't go for the high upside and picked him instead of Giannis ....like why the inconsistency Danny? 

The middle of the draft is bound to give you a lot of variance. Also, Ainge has pretty much been the same, sometimes he goes for risks, sometimes not. That Olynyk draft is no exception. Also you fail to factor this, when you have lots of draft picks, you tend to gamble more often, hence the numbers will look like you have more miss than hits. This is why stacking up on draft picks is useful, because you have more chances of winning.

I think his point is more that Ainge quite simply hasn't been winning since Rondo was selected when looking at picks in that range.  It would be one thing if he had those 7 awful picks but also had 7 of the better picks or even just 1 of the super-elite All NBA type players.  But Ainge doesn't have those.  He is missing or getting a single.  His best selection was Avery Bradley, who is a fine player and very good value for his draft spot, but he isn't moving the needle much.

Again, the odds of getting a super-elite player where he was drafting is very low! Guys like Giannis are rare.

Here is how ainge stacks vs Pop and Morey.
More than half of the time the players that DA drafted ended up being ranked in the bottom 3rd by WS per 48. If Zizc has a couple stingers for Cleveland he may move to the lower 3rd as well.

 2 players that the spurs selected didn’t come to the nba so they are not ranked.
In general morey and pop tend to draft players that deliver WS per 48 in the top 3rd half of the time.
 

IMHO if your draftee doesnt even get to play in the nba, they should be ranked lower than guys who played a few minutes and didnt do a thing.