Horford gives his first detailed interview since FA, talks about why he left

[nickagneta]

Doesn't add up.

If I recall, the Celts needed Horford's cap hold freed up to give Kemba the max.

Boston could have theoretically kept Horford and then sign and traded for Walker.  Boston just had to remain below the tax line to do it, so something like Rozier (sign and traded) plus Smart, probably would have worked financially.  Still might have even been able to add Kanter depending on what Horford's contract actually looked like.

So is a Walker, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford with Kanter, Theis, Langford, etc. a better team.  Probably, but it still isn't a contender, so I again am not sure what the point of all those moves would be.  Of course I have no idea why Boston signed Walker and kept Hayward, if the goal is to build a contender around Tatum.

That team doesn't look like a contender when compared to the NBA since 2008 with loads of superteams with 3-5 stars per team.

But this year's NBA isn't made of superteams. At best you have teams with 2-3 stars on them and some of those teams don't have great depth or have injury problems.

Then add in that there could be even more injury issues and, as far as I am concerned, you could argue any one of 6-9 teams could be the champion if they remain healthy.

A team of

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Horford
Kanter

Edwards
Smart
Utah Hayward
Theis
Williams
Williams
Semi

That gelled and stayed healthy could have been a contender in today's game with the talent more evenly distributed.

[indeedproceed]

To everyone out there, who doesn't know how to breakup with someone: Read the article. Al Horford breaks up with Boston there like a champ.

[indeedproceed]

Doesn't add up.

If I recall, the Celts needed Horford's cap hold freed up to give Kemba the max.

Boston could have theoretically kept Horford and then sign and traded for Walker.  Boston just had to remain below the tax line to do it, so something like Rozier (sign and traded) plus Smart, probably would have worked financially.  Still might have even been able to add Kanter depending on what Horford's contract actually looked like.

So is a Walker, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford with Kanter, Theis, Langford, etc. a better team.  Probably, but it still isn't a contender, so I again am not sure what the point of all those moves would be.  Of course I have no idea why Boston signed Walker and kept Hayward, if the goal is to build a contender around Tatum. 

Word from people inside the organization (via podcast, I think Chris Mannix or Zach Lowe) is there was a less than zero chance of Kemba and Horford both happening. Too many things would've needed to break Boston's way that were ultimately out of Boston's control.

[Moranis]

Doesn't add up.

If I recall, the Celts needed Horford's cap hold freed up to give Kemba the max.

Boston could have theoretically kept Horford and then sign and traded for Walker.  Boston just had to remain below the tax line to do it, so something like Rozier (sign and traded) plus Smart, probably would have worked financially.  Still might have even been able to add Kanter depending on what Horford's contract actually looked like.

So is a Walker, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford with Kanter, Theis, Langford, etc. a better team.  Probably, but it still isn't a contender, so I again am not sure what the point of all those moves would be.  Of course I have no idea why Boston signed Walker and kept Hayward, if the goal is to build a contender around Tatum. 

Word from people inside the organization (via podcast, I think Chris Mannix or Zach Lowe) is there was a less than zero chance of Kemba and Horford both happening. Too many things would've needed to break Boston's way that were ultimately out of Boston's control.

true, but a large portion of that was fixed with the Rozier sign and trade.

[celticsclay]

I'll also say, while I don't think Al is an all-star anymore or worth 30 million a year the next three years, if was back with us we would be a contender with him in place of Kanter.

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Hayward
Horford

That team is basically what last year's team was supposed to be, without the chemistry issues potentially, an improved hayward, and some improvement from Brown and Tatum.

That team isn't a contender.  Just like last year's team was not.  It lacks top end talent.  It has a SF starting at 3 positions on the floor.  The bench is still weak.  That team would be better than what the current team is, but it is quite simply not a contender.

they'd be underdogs for sure but they'd be in the running for top team in the East and have a good shot at getting to the finals.  That assumes the lockerroom mess is cleared up by Kyrie leaving, Hayward is back to old Hayward now that it's been 2 years since the injury and Tatum/Brown take those next steps in their development.

The bench would still be a weak spot assuming that by keeping Horford they don't get Kanter.  I actually think that if they kept Al, they'd have kept Baynes as well so perhaps with those 2, we're the team to beat in the East.

Yea I definitely believe that team would be a contender in a post warriors world. Kemba is a top 15 NBA player. Unless we are totally giving up on Hayward or Tatum being an all-star, you are talking about a team that could very well have 2-3 all-stars on it plus 3 more really elite role players in smart, Horford and Brown (then if we had kanter he has some elite skills off the bench for certain matchups). If you look at Philly and what they currently have they have a major superstar in Embid, then a sort of fringe all-star in simmons and three elite role players in Horford, Richardson and Harris. That is a little better because they do have the superstar in Embiid, but I don't think Embiid is someone that can dominate down the stretch of a close game in playoff basketball the way a Lebron, Durant, Giannis or Curry theoretically. Of course in a world where we sign Horford he obviously isn't on their team. I actually think we would have been favored with

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Hayward
Horford
Smart
Kanter

Versus

Simmons
Richardson

Harris
Embiid
Zhaire Smith
Mike Scott

[Big333223]

My guess is that Philly will regret years 3 and 4 of that contract.

Probably, but I doubt they regret Year 1 unless he tears a pec again.

It's tough, I wish Al so well but his team so ill. The basketball gods will find a way to make it come true.

No ill will toward Al. He was a pro while he was here. He left for a team that would give him both more money and more talented teammates.

And maybe I would be more upset if I thought Al was going to be a real danger going forward but... I wouldn't be shocked if this contract is a disaster.

His great assets on offense are his ability to pass (which he won't get to do much of in Philly with Simmons and Embiid needing the ball) and his ability to stretch the floor. But if he's not going to be playing center, he's going to have PF's closing out on him and not getting the same looks. He's also not going to be quick enough to take advantage of those close outs but if he starts playing down low, then he's not stretching the floor and he's clogging the lane with Embiid (and Simmons).

This is all to say I think the fit might no be great afterall and for a player who was never particularly athletic, $27 mil at age 35 and 36 might be ugly.

[Moranis]

Doesn't add up.

If I recall, the Celts needed Horford's cap hold freed up to give Kemba the max.

Boston could have theoretically kept Horford and then sign and traded for Walker.  Boston just had to remain below the tax line to do it, so something like Rozier (sign and traded) plus Smart, probably would have worked financially.  Still might have even been able to add Kanter depending on what Horford's contract actually looked like.

So is a Walker, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford with Kanter, Theis, Langford, etc. a better team.  Probably, but it still isn't a contender, so I again am not sure what the point of all those moves would be.  Of course I have no idea why Boston signed Walker and kept Hayward, if the goal is to build a contender around Tatum.

That team doesn't look like a contender when compared to the NBA since 2008 with loads of superteams with 3-5 stars per team.

But this year's NBA isn't made of superteams. At best you have teams with 2-3 stars on them and some of those teams don't have great depth or have injury problems.

Then add in that there could be even more injury issues and, as far as I am concerned, you could argue any one of 6-9 teams could be the champion if they remain healthy.

A team of

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Horford
Kanter

Edwards
Smart
Utah Hayward
Theis
Williams
Williams
Semi

That gelled and stayed healthy could have been a contender in today's game with the talent more evenly distributed.

I'm confused, who are these teams that had 3-5 stars on them?  Sure the Warriors, but after that, what are we talking about recently (I'll give you the Heat and C's before that, but the heat were 5 years ago - perhaps the Cavs when they had Irving).  The Clippers and Lakers this year project to be better than any team not named the Warriors (when healthy) the last 5 years.  The Rockets are probably better with Westbrook than Paul (at least in theory).  The Nuggets, Jazz, and Blazers are all better than that Celtics team.  Heck if Klay comes back, I'd take the Warriors over them in a playoff series.  The East is weaker, as it has been for years, but that team is pretty clearly behind the Bucks.  The Sixers are harder to gauge because in that scenario they don't have Horford, but they would have used that money on someone and they still have Embiid and Simmons so I'd rate them higher.  Obviously that team is better than the Nets on paper this year, but not going forward.  That hypothetical Celtics team is at absolute best, the 7th best team in the league this year and they are arguably more like 9th or 10th.  That isn't a contender. 

I love the enthusiasm and the positivity so many have, but the C's aren't close to contending.  The team just doesn't have enough high end talent and the roster construction is terrible.  Even if your hypothetical team was somehow possible (I think it is impossible as Smart couldn't really be on the team unless Horford took a very small contract), it isn't a contender either.  Better than the current group, absolutely, but just not in the same class as the elite teams, because quite simply the elite teams have elite top end talent, something Boston does not (Walker has 1 3rd Team All NBA, the only such award from anyone on that team - and I don't see Walker as a top 15 player despite him having a top 15 season last year).  Top end talent wins.  This has been shown time and time again that the team with the best player in a playoff series wins that series at a significantly higher rate than the team without the best player (there are exceptions obviously). 

[fairweatherfan]

My guess is that Philly will regret years 3 and 4 of that contract.

Probably, but I doubt they regret Year 1 unless he tears a pec again.

It's tough, I wish Al so well but his team so ill. The basketball gods will find a way to make it come true.

No ill will toward Al. He was a pro while he was here. He left for a team that would give him both more money and more talented teammates.

And maybe I would be more upset if I thought Al was going to be a real danger going forward but... I wouldn't be shocked if this contract is a disaster.

His great assets on offense are his ability to pass (which he won't get to do much of in Philly with Simmons and Embiid needing the ball) and his ability to stretch the floor. But if he's not going to be playing center, he's going to have PF's closing out on him and not getting the same looks. He's also not going to be quick enough to take advantage of those close outs but if he starts playing down low, then he's not stretching the floor and he's clogging the lane with Embiid (and Simmons).

This is all to say I think the fit might no be great afterall and for a player who was never particularly athletic, $27 mil at age 35 and 36 might be ugly.

I think he'll wind up playing a lot of 2nd string center but they'll pretend he's not. Agree neither he nor Embiid are effective 4s at this point, at least on D. But as a secondary passer and one of the guys the defense will have to sag off of to defend Embiid and Simmons in the lane and Harris at 3, he's going to be a problem out there, this season for sure. The big question will be how 4s go at him on defense, but the reduced workload is probably more of a good thing at his age than a bad one.

[nickagneta]

Doesn't add up.

If I recall, the Celts needed Horford's cap hold freed up to give Kemba the max.

Boston could have theoretically kept Horford and then sign and traded for Walker.  Boston just had to remain below the tax line to do it, so something like Rozier (sign and traded) plus Smart, probably would have worked financially.  Still might have even been able to add Kanter depending on what Horford's contract actually looked like.

So is a Walker, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford with Kanter, Theis, Langford, etc. a better team.  Probably, but it still isn't a contender, so I again am not sure what the point of all those moves would be.  Of course I have no idea why Boston signed Walker and kept Hayward, if the goal is to build a contender around Tatum.

That team doesn't look like a contender when compared to the NBA since 2008 with loads of superteams with 3-5 stars per team.

But this year's NBA isn't made of superteams. At best you have teams with 2-3 stars on them and some of those teams don't have great depth or have injury problems.

Then add in that there could be even more injury issues and, as far as I am concerned, you could argue any one of 6-9 teams could be the champion if they remain healthy.

A team of

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Horford
Kanter

Edwards
Smart
Utah Hayward
Theis
Williams
Williams
Semi

That gelled and stayed healthy could have been a contender in today's game with the talent more evenly distributed.

I'm confused, who are these teams that had 3-5 stars on them?  Sure the Warriors, but after that, what are we talking about recently (I'll give you the Heat and C's before that, but the heat were 5 years ago - perhaps the Cavs when they had Irving).  The Clippers and Lakers this year project to be better than any team not named the Warriors (when healthy) the last 5 years.  The Rockets are probably better with Westbrook than Paul (at least in theory).  The Nuggets, Jazz, and Blazers are all better than that Celtics team.  Heck if Klay comes back, I'd take the Warriors over them in a playoff series.  The East is weaker, as it has been for years, but that team is pretty clearly behind the Bucks.  The Sixers are harder to gauge because in that scenario they don't have Horford, but they would have used that money on someone and they still have Embiid and Simmons so I'd rate them higher.  Obviously that team is better than the Nets on paper this year, but not going forward.  That hypothetical Celtics team is at absolute best, the 7th best team in the league this year and they are arguably more like 9th or 10th.  That isn't a contender. 

I love the enthusiasm and the positivity so many have, but the C's aren't close to contending.  The team just doesn't have enough high end talent and the roster construction is terrible.  Even if your hypothetical team was somehow possible (I think it is impossible as Smart couldn't really be on the team unless Horford took a very small contract), it isn't a contender either.  Better than the current group, absolutely, but just not in the same class as the elite teams, because quite simply the elite teams have elite top end talent, something Boston does not (Walker has 1 3rd Team All NBA, the only such award from anyone on that team - and I don't see Walker as a top 15 player despite him having a top 15 season last year).  Top end talent wins.  This has been shown time and time again that the team with the best player in a playoff series wins that series at a significantly higher rate than the team without the best player (there are exceptions obviously).

Yeah, well let's just say I completely disagree with your usual Celtic pessimism if Horford was on this team. The league is wide open this year, especially for a team like this Celtics team if they had Horford, a deep team, I think under the right circumstances would have had a chance.

The current group, not so much. Yes, I think a healthy Horford, on this team, could make that much of a difference, especially in a league where the talent is much better spread out and injuries to stars(Durant, George, Thompson, more Kawhi load managing, more load managing Anthony Davis, an older and more broken LeBron, a face hurting Kyrie, the always brittle Embiid) could affect the rest of the league in a way that if that Celtic team stayed healthy, they could take advantage of it.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Who's this Horford guy?

[ScoobyDoo]

I tend to agree with Nickagenta on this one. When we retained the rights to resign Horford after the Rozier trade I thought Horford coming back was a fine deal. I also think that this team with Horford, with Kemba over Kyrie (very likely a massive chemistry upgrade) and then with the potential of a Kanter, Theis, Brown or Hayward, and Smart coming off the bench had the opportunity to be serious contenders for the Finals.

I wanted Kanter last year when he was avail for that offensive bench punch.  Horford going to Philly was a massive sea change move. With Butler wanting out Philly likely signs someone else if they didn’t get Horford but the double dip of Horford “joining” Embiid versus Horford being a top two defender against Embiid is massive.

We’re just going to have kick Philky’s Backside anyway now...

[tazzmaniac]

My guess is that Philly will regret years 3 and 4 of that contract.

Probably, but I doubt they regret Year 1 unless he tears a pec again.

It's tough, I wish Al so well but his team so ill. The basketball gods will find a way to make it come true.

No ill will toward Al. He was a pro while he was here. He left for a team that would give him both more money and more talented teammates.

And maybe I would be more upset if I thought Al was going to be a real danger going forward but... I wouldn't be shocked if this contract is a disaster.

His great assets on offense are his ability to pass (which he won't get to do much of in Philly with Simmons and Embiid needing the ball) and his ability to stretch the floor. But if he's not going to be playing center, he's going to have PF's closing out on him and not getting the same looks. He's also not going to be quick enough to take advantage of those close outs but if he starts playing down low, then he's not stretching the floor and he's clogging the lane with Embiid (and Simmons).

This is all to say I think the fit might no be great afterall and for a player who was never particularly athletic, $27 mil at age 35 and 36 might be ugly.

The stats below are from when Horford and Baynes shared the court the past 2 seasons.  So why is Horford and Embiid not going to work? 

                Min   OffRtg       DefRtg
2018/19   163   119.0   98.5   
2017/18   863   107.6   95.5   

Also that 4th year is only partially guaranteed (14M) based on team performance (making finals and winning a championship).

[celticsclay]

My guess is that Philly will regret years 3 and 4 of that contract.

Probably, but I doubt they regret Year 1 unless he tears a pec again.

It's tough, I wish Al so well but his team so ill. The basketball gods will find a way to make it come true.

No ill will toward Al. He was a pro while he was here. He left for a team that would give him both more money and more talented teammates.

And maybe I would be more upset if I thought Al was going to be a real danger going forward but... I wouldn't be shocked if this contract is a disaster.

His great assets on offense are his ability to pass (which he won't get to do much of in Philly with Simmons and Embiid needing the ball) and his ability to stretch the floor. But if he's not going to be playing center, he's going to have PF's closing out on him and not getting the same looks. He's also not going to be quick enough to take advantage of those close outs but if he starts playing down low, then he's not stretching the floor and he's clogging the lane with Embiid (and Simmons).

This is all to say I think the fit might no be great afterall and for a player who was never particularly athletic, $27 mil at age 35 and 36 might be ugly.

The stats below are from when Horford and Baynes shared the court the past 2 seasons.  So why is Horford and Embiid not going to work? 

                Min   OffRtg       DefRtg
2018/19   163   119.0   98.5   
2017/18   863   107.6   95.5   

Also that 4th year is only partially guaranteed (14M) based on team performance (making finals and winning a championship).

Well that is a pretty small sample size for last year, the other main reason is that Horford is definitely aging and getting worse. Check this out:

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Al very well could have been able to guard some power forward two years ago alongside Baynes, does that mean a guy that looked like he was dragging his leg around in the playoffs will be able to do that two and three years from now?

I have said repeatedly i like al and think we would be a contender if we still had him instead of kanter as a starter. That doesn't mean it is not fair to question his fit alongside Embid.

[cman88]

Al kinda said Kyrie was the problem in this interview in not so many words

[tazzmaniac]

My guess is that Philly will regret years 3 and 4 of that contract.

Probably, but I doubt they regret Year 1 unless he tears a pec again.

It's tough, I wish Al so well but his team so ill. The basketball gods will find a way to make it come true.

No ill will toward Al. He was a pro while he was here. He left for a team that would give him both more money and more talented teammates.

And maybe I would be more upset if I thought Al was going to be a real danger going forward but... I wouldn't be shocked if this contract is a disaster.

His great assets on offense are his ability to pass (which he won't get to do much of in Philly with Simmons and Embiid needing the ball) and his ability to stretch the floor. But if he's not going to be playing center, he's going to have PF's closing out on him and not getting the same looks. He's also not going to be quick enough to take advantage of those close outs but if he starts playing down low, then he's not stretching the floor and he's clogging the lane with Embiid (and Simmons).

This is all to say I think the fit might no be great afterall and for a player who was never particularly athletic, $27 mil at age 35 and 36 might be ugly.

The stats below are from when Horford and Baynes shared the court the past 2 seasons.  So why is Horford and Embiid not going to work? 

                Min   OffRtg       DefRtg
2018/19   163   119.0   98.5   
2017/18   863   107.6   95.5   

Also that 4th year is only partially guaranteed (14M) based on team performance (making finals and winning a championship).

Well that is a pretty small sample size for last year, the other main reason is that Horford is definitely aging and getting worse. Check this out:

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Al very well could have been able to guard some power forward two years ago alongside Baynes, does that mean a guy that looked like he was dragging his leg around in the playoffs will be able to do that two and three years from now?

I have said repeatedly i like al and think we would be a contender if we still had him instead of kanter as a starter. That doesn't mean it is not fair to question his fit alongside Embid.

Baynes was injured a lot last season missing 31 games.  Regarding the article, I don't agree that players peak at 25.  At least not the good ones.  Horford's performance has obviously started to decline but the Sixers don't need him to be an all-star.  They're going to load manage him.  He also won't take as much punishment playing at the 4. He'll start at the 4 and also give them a good backup 5 in the playoffs. 

Going the Horford route was probably a better, less risk option than re-signing Butler at the 5 year Max.  Doing the later they may not have been able to re-sign Redick.  They wouldn't have been able to address the backup center issue.  Butler is starting to show his age a bit too and there is his personality to deal with too.  They actually got younger swapping Butler and Redick for Horford and Richardson.  Obviously the Sixers have concerns but I wouldn't rate Horford as much of a concern for the next couple seasons.