Author Topic: FGAs per game Who should get what  (Read 5705 times)

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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2019, 12:31:49 PM »

Offline dannyboy35

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Hayward is the obvious choice for the second best playmaker / creator on the team, which should result in a good number of plays and touches.  However, I dont' think he will be or should be one of the top two guys in terms of scoring attempts, since he's naturally more of a facilitator.

Well, except that Hayward has, historically been a much more efficient, volume scorer than anyone else on this team.  Even including his poor start to last year, he posted a 57.5% TS% -- higher than any of Kemba, Jaylen or Jayson.  And it was higher and higher as the season progressed as he got healthier and his USG creeped up.   By the end of last season almost all of his effectiveness numbers were at or above what they were in his last season at Utah.  What was still trailing (slightly) were his aggressiveness stats:  shots per touch.   Even that was trending up, though and not far off from where he was in Utah.

I love Tatum's potential, but he's not (yet) anywhere near the versatile and efficient scorer that Hayward is.   Tatum, at this point, is a shot maker and creates a little for himself off the dribble.  But Hayward is a point creator who can score efficiently from all levels in multiple ways, from shot making, dribble/drive and of course, getting to the FT line.

Assuming Hayward is pretty much fully recovered -- and while that's a question, there is a lot of reason to believe the answer is closer to 'yes' than 'no' -- he could very easily be the best player on this team.

  Thank you. People are cAlling me crazy saying Hayward is easily the superior talent.

Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2019, 01:31:42 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Kemba is more of a CBS model player than Irving .   Thats the positive . 

Haywards needs to become a major focus on offense, he is capable of handling the double team well.   But , he has to step up....not be shy and play like he belongs on the team.  Not act like a lost hermit watching the world go by.

Kanter can put the ball in the bucket if nothing else , they shouldl be getting him close,in easy looks .

Its hard to stay positive knowing Horford our anchor is not going to,be out there

Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2019, 01:38:17 PM »

Offline footey

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Kemba is more of a CBS model player than Irving .   Thats the positive . 

Haywards needs to become a major focus on offense, he is capable of handling the double team well.   But , he has to step up....not be shy and play like he belongs on the team.  Not act like a lost hermit watching the world go by.

Kanter can put the ball in the bucket if nothing else , they shouldl be getting him close,in easy looks .

Its hard to stay positive knowing Horford our anchor is not going to,be out there

I thought Hayward made great strides through Indiana. But disappeared, like most of his teammates, vs. Bucks.  That is a head scratcher.  Bucks' length really negated his ability to penetrate effectively in that series.

Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2019, 02:56:34 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Kemba is more of a CBS model player than Irving .   Thats the positive . 

Haywards needs to become a major focus on offense, he is capable of handling the double team well.   But , he has to step up....not be shy and play like he belongs on the team.  Not act like a lost hermit watching the world go by.

Kanter can put the ball in the bucket if nothing else , they shouldl be getting him close,in easy looks .

Its hard to stay positive knowing Horford our anchor is not going to,be out there

I thought Hayward made great strides through Indiana. But disappeared, like most of his teammates, vs. Bucks.  That is a head scratcher.  Bucks' length really negated his ability to penetrate effectively in that series.

What happened in the Bucks series is that Hayward barely touched the ball.   You can't do much of anything if you don't get touches.

What happened in that series is Kyrie morphed bizarrely from the way he normally had played his whole career (fairly modest ball-possession stats) into a weird John-Wall-like ball-hog who wouldn't pass and who took the worst shots.  And who played frighteningly stupid defense.
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2019, 03:08:31 PM »

Offline liam

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Kemba is more of a CBS model player than Irving .   Thats the positive . 

Haywards needs to become a major focus on offense, he is capable of handling the double team well.   But , he has to step up....not be shy and play like he belongs on the team.  Not act like a lost hermit watching the world go by.

Kanter can put the ball in the bucket if nothing else , they shouldl be getting him close,in easy looks .

Its hard to stay positive knowing Horford our anchor is not going to,be out there

I thought Hayward made great strides through Indiana. But disappeared, like most of his teammates, vs. Bucks.  That is a head scratcher.  Bucks' length really negated his ability to penetrate effectively in that series.

What happened in the Bucks series is that Hayward barely touched the ball.   You can't do much of anything if you don't get touches.

What happened in that series is Kyrie morphed bizarrely from the way he normally had played his whole career (fairly modest ball-possession stats) into a weird John-Wall-like ball-hog who wouldn't pass and who took the worst shots.  And who played frighteningly stupid defense.

Knowing now that Kyrie was already out the door, him just tanking that Bucks series makes more sense. I have never seen a player playing to lose like Kyrie did in that Bucks series. He missed bunny after bunny and just kept chunking. I thought he had to be hurt but he was just thinking about the Nets. It was a disgrace for him after he kept telling fans to wait for the playoffs. He new he was leaving halfway through the year and still kept up the BS. He should've been benched during that Bucks series. A Bird, Pierce, Garnett, Lewis, Archibald, Heinsohn, Johnson, Cousey, Cowens, McHale, Havlicek, Russell, don't just phone it in to get their foot out the door.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 03:19:03 PM by liam »

Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2019, 04:13:54 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Hayward is the obvious choice for the second best playmaker / creator on the team, which should result in a good number of plays and touches.  However, I dont' think he will be or should be one of the top two guys in terms of scoring attempts, since he's naturally more of a facilitator.

Well, except that Hayward has, historically been a much more efficient, volume scorer than anyone else on this team.  Even including his poor start to last year, he posted a 57.5% TS% -- higher than any of Kemba, Jaylen or Jayson.  And it was higher and higher as the season progressed as he got healthier and his USG creeped up.   By the end of last season almost all of his effectiveness numbers were at or above what they were in his last season at Utah.  What was still trailing (slightly) were his aggressiveness stats:  shots per touch.   Even that was trending up, though and not far off from where he was in Utah.

I love Tatum's potential, but he's not (yet) anywhere near the versatile and efficient scorer that Hayward is.   Tatum, at this point, is a shot maker and creates a little for himself off the dribble.  But Hayward is a point creator who can score efficiently from all levels in multiple ways, from shot making, dribble/drive and of course, getting to the FT line.

Assuming Hayward is pretty much fully recovered -- and while that's a question, there is a lot of reason to believe the answer is closer to 'yes' than 'no' -- he could very easily be the best player on this team.

  Thank you. People are cAlling me crazy saying Hayward is easily the superior talent.



Talent is not the same thing as having the disposition and skillset to score 20+ points per game reliably and efficiently.  Meaning that the question of whether Hayward or Tatum is more talented is not the same thing as the question of which of them should be attempting more shots or scoring a larger share of the Celtics' points each game.


Hayward to me seems like a guy who is ideally going to end up scoring in the high teens with 5+ assists and 5+ rebounds per game.  He's your versatile playmaking wing.  On a team with a variety of scoring options I dont' think he's going to be your go-to scorer.

Of course I must acknowledge that Hayward has scored over 20 PPG once in his career, and come very close (19.7) in another season, whereas Tatum has not broken 16 ppg.  So from that perspective, Hayward is the much more obvious candidate to be one of the lead scorers for the team.

At that point in time, though, Hayward was on a team with considerably fewer quality offensive options than this Celtics team has (the second best scoring option was either George Hill or Rudy Gobert).

On the Celtics, I view the best version of Hayward as something like a more athletic / quicker Joe Ingles.  Anybody who has watched Joe Ingles the last couple of years should recognize that as a sincere compliment.


With that said, I see Tatum as more of a natural scorer and less of a guy who does all of the other things, compared to Hayward.


To get max value out of Hayward you need him to maximize all of the things he does well apart from scoring, though he is indeed an efficient shooter & scorer.

To get max value out of Tatum you need him to scale up his scoring from the somewhat low usage rates from his first couple of years in the league. 


I think it's fair to say, as well, that Celtics becoming a really good team anytime soon depends a great deal more on Tatum turning into an elite level scorer than it does on Hayward regaining his All-Star form. 

Hayward is only under contract for 1-2 more years and is in the midst of his prime.  There's a good chance he's already had his best season as a pro. 

Tatum is the best hope the Celts have on their roster of a guy who could become a top 10, foundational player.  Sorting out whether he can become that guy is the #1 project of the franchise for the next year or two.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 04:20:45 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2019, 04:32:07 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Hayward is the obvious choice for the second best playmaker / creator on the team, which should result in a good number of plays and touches.  However, I dont' think he will be or should be one of the top two guys in terms of scoring attempts, since he's naturally more of a facilitator.

Well, except that Hayward has, historically been a much more efficient, volume scorer than anyone else on this team.  Even including his poor start to last year, he posted a 57.5% TS% -- higher than any of Kemba, Jaylen or Jayson.  And it was higher and higher as the season progressed as he got healthier and his USG creeped up.   By the end of last season almost all of his effectiveness numbers were at or above what they were in his last season at Utah.  What was still trailing (slightly) were his aggressiveness stats:  shots per touch.   Even that was trending up, though and not far off from where he was in Utah.

I love Tatum's potential, but he's not (yet) anywhere near the versatile and efficient scorer that Hayward is.   Tatum, at this point, is a shot maker and creates a little for himself off the dribble.  But Hayward is a point creator who can score efficiently from all levels in multiple ways, from shot making, dribble/drive and of course, getting to the FT line.

Assuming Hayward is pretty much fully recovered -- and while that's a question, there is a lot of reason to believe the answer is closer to 'yes' than 'no' -- he could very easily be the best player on this team.

  Thank you. People are cAlling me crazy saying Hayward is easily the superior talent.



Talent is not the same thing as having the disposition and skillset to score 20+ points per game.  Meaning that the question of whether Hayward or Tatum is more talented is not the same thing as the question of which of them should be attempting more shots or scoring a larger share of the Celtics' points each game.


Hayward to me seems like a guy who is ideally going to end up scoring in the high teens with 5+ assists and 5+ rebounds per game.  He's your versatile playmaking wing.  On a team with a variety of scoring options I dont' think he's going to be your go-to scorer.

Whereas Tatum is more of a natural scorer and less of a guy who does all of the other things.


To get max value out of Hayward you need him to maximize all of the things he does well apart from scoring, though he is indeed an efficient shooter & scorer.

To get max value out of Tatum you need him to scale up his scoring from the somewhat low usage rates from his first couple of years in the league. 


I think it's fair to say, as well, that Celtics becoming a really good team anytime soon depends a great deal more on Tatum turning into an elite level scorer than it does on Hayward regaining his All-Star form. 

Hayward is only under contract for 1-2 more years and is in the midst of his prime.  There's a good chance he's already had his best season as a pro. 

Tatum is the best hope the Celts have on their roster of a guy who could become a top 10, foundational player.  Sorting out whether he can become that guy is the #1 project of the franchise for the next year or two.

I really just don't get this thinking.   Again, I personally love Tatum's potential.  But it is just that. Potential.  And he has a lot of years to his career ahead of him.

Gordon's last three years pre-injury he posted the 21st, 18th and then 15th most Win Shares in the NBA.   That last year he was just 1.6 WS short of 10th.  Overall for that 3 year _span_ he posted the 15th most Win Shares overall in the NBA.   Assuming he's able to resume his trend, he's far closer to becoming a 'top 10, foundational player' than anybody else on this roster.   He's only 29 and should still be in his peak the next 2-3 seasons.

The Celtics are best served by having the most shots taken by the most efficient scorers.   Until Tatum becomes a more consistently efficient scorer than Hayward, he should not be taking more shots. 
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2019, 06:23:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The Celtics are best served by having the most shots taken by the most efficient scorers.   Until Tatum becomes a more consistently efficient scorer than Hayward, he should not be taking more shots.


I think this is true, and if the only focus is on winning games this season, then it probably makes sense to think of Hayward as one of the top two scoring options.  That does assume that Hayward is basically physically and mentally back to who he was pre-injury, but I don't think that's unreasonable.


However, I don't think it makes sense for the franchise to focus entirely on this year.  They are at best the clear cut third team in the East.  The East is considerably weaker overall than the West.

If the goal is to be one of the team in the elite tier of the league -- which I think we can all agree it is -- then the team will have to find a player who can be, if not THE centerpiece of such a team, then one of the key core pieces of such a team.

Tatum is the best hope for that on this roster.  In my view, if the Celtics don't do whatever they can to figure out if Tatum has the capacity to be that player, then they have wasted this season. 

If all the Celts do this year is win 50 games and put up a respectable showing in the playoffs en route to a second round loss, but Tatum is once again an inconsistent or supporting player on a team with more established offensive options, that will count in my book as a disappointment.


Perhaps Tatum will never be that guy -- that's certainly an option.  I think the only way to find out is to actually focus on making him one of the featured options in the offense and see how he handles it.


Another consideration here is that if Hayward does have a really good season, he will probably opt out and become a UFA.

Given that Brown is up for a new contract next summer, followed by Tatum the year after, I think it's very likely the Celts would watch Hayward sign elsewhere next summer, like Horford before him.  If Hayward looks like his old self, he might be the best UFA on the market next season.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 06:29:06 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2019, 06:32:36 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Despite everything I just posted, a crazy thought that comes to mind -- if Hayward does look like he's back to his old perennial-All-Star self, does that motivate Danny to refocus the team around Kemba and Hayward?

Could you somehow get both Bradley Beal and Myles Turner if you traded both Brown and Tatum? 


Kemba, Beal, Hayward, Turner -- that team lacks a true centerpiece, but that might be a contender in a somewhat open league.

Anyway, that's somewhat off-topic, but I feel like these are the ideas Danny probably at least turns over in his head sometimes.
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2019, 07:03:04 PM »

Offline footey

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Despite everything I just posted, a crazy thought that comes to mind -- if Hayward does look like he's back to his old perennial-All-Star self, does that motivate Danny to refocus the team around Kemba and Hayward?

Could you somehow get both Bradley Beal and Myles Turner if you traded both Brown and Tatum? 


Kemba, Beal, Hayward, Turner -- that team lacks a true centerpiece, but that might be a contender in a somewhat open league.

Anyway, that's somewhat off-topic, but I feel like these are the ideas Danny probably at least turns over in his head sometimes.

I would but be prepared for the Tatum police to crucify you.

Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #25 on: October 01, 2019, 07:30:42 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Despite everything I just posted, a crazy thought that comes to mind -- if Hayward does look like he's back to his old perennial-All-Star self, does that motivate Danny to refocus the team around Kemba and Hayward?

Could you somehow get both Bradley Beal and Myles Turner if you traded both Brown and Tatum? 


Kemba, Beal, Hayward, Turner -- that team lacks a true centerpiece, but that might be a contender in a somewhat open league.

Anyway, that's somewhat off-topic, but I feel like these are the ideas Danny probably at least turns over in his head sometimes.

I would but be prepared for the Tatum police to crucify you.


I'm a fan of Tatum (I argued for him above), but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he turns into Paul George instead of, say, Otto Porter.  Anyway, what I posted is almost certainly impossible and won't happen, so no need to derail this further. 

The notion of Hayward turning back into a borderline-All-NBA caliber wing just got the wheels turning in my head about the possibility of the team focusing on a Kemba-Hayward timeline instead of the Brown-Tatum one.
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #26 on: October 01, 2019, 08:14:13 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Despite everything I just posted, a crazy thought that comes to mind -- if Hayward does look like he's back to his old perennial-All-Star self, does that motivate Danny to refocus the team around Kemba and Hayward?

Could you somehow get both Bradley Beal and Myles Turner if you traded both Brown and Tatum? 


Kemba, Beal, Hayward, Turner -- that team lacks a true centerpiece, but that might be a contender in a somewhat open league.

Anyway, that's somewhat off-topic, but I feel like these are the ideas Danny probably at least turns over in his head sometimes.
Man, 3 All-Stars and a DPOY candidate + Brad Stevens? That'd be one of those hard things to pass up.

It would however be very difficult to get both of those guys for JT and JB in terms of salary, I think
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #27 on: October 01, 2019, 10:27:48 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I don't understand.  My thinking was that Danny's intention has been to "build around Hayward and Kemba" all along, ever since the Kemba trade.

And that is what he's already doing.   He's got a pair of all-star players both in their prime years the next few seasons.    And he's already put a solid set of teammates around those two.  An all-NBA defender plus two guys with all-star potential -- all three with playoff experience, despite their youth.   That's a lot of top tier talent already.
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #28 on: October 02, 2019, 04:52:57 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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I don't understand.  My thinking was that Danny's intention has been to "build around Hayward and Kemba" all along, ever since the Kemba trade.

And that is what he's already doing.   He's got a pair of all-star players both in their prime years the next few seasons.    And he's already put a solid set of teammates around those two.  An all-NBA defender plus two guys with all-star potential -- all three with playoff experience, despite their youth.   That's a lot of top tier talent already.

Kanter could break out further too. He was electric in those first two playoff series last year (although looked badly matched up against GSW.)
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Re: FGAs per game Who should get what
« Reply #29 on: October 02, 2019, 05:13:57 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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I wish Kemba was a better long range shooter.

The End.

Edit: his shooting is actually above average for position for 15-16 (.371), 16-17 (.399), and 17-18 (.384). There is also reason to believe that he took at lot more heavily contested threes in his below average (for his position) three point shooting last year. And his career mark is very much skewed by his first 4 years, when he didn't really have a reliable 3-point shot.

I take it all back, Kemba will have a career year behind the arc. You heard it here first folks.
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