Author Topic: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum  (Read 3127 times)

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The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:04:05 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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This thread is to discuss why I'm pretty confident that the starting lineup will be Kemba + Brown + Hayward + Tatum + Kanter.

People are over-thinking this when they worry about having '3 small forwards' on the floor or "Who will handle the scoring for the bench????"

First, let's talk about the bench:

After the first 6 or 7 minutes, Brad will swap out one or two of those guys and play matchup-specific adjustments.  I expect the 'bench' will almost always have one of Kemba or Hayward on the floor with them, except in non-critical minutes.  And similarly, Tatum and Brown will also overlap with bench minutes.  The vast majority of the time there will be at least a couple of starters on the floor with the bench.   So that's who will handle the scoring for the bench.


Next, let's talk about what it means to play 3 "threes":

For those who seem overly concerned with playing three guys of such similar size (Brown + Tatum + Hayward) together, I offer the following data to hopefully reassure them:

First off, those three played together in 59 games (386 minutes) last year and posted a Net Rating of +5.8.   That's not crazy good, but it's pretty solidly positive.

But it's important to also note that that sample includes the very start of the year, when those three were starting with Kyrie & Al and unfortunately, both Hayward (recovering from missing year and surgery the prior May) and Brown (injured hand) got off to horrendously bad shooting starts.   Those first few games really drag this sample down.

If you look at that threesome from Game 15 onward, their Net Rating was a fantastic +11.6.   That's around the time Brown's hand got better and he also started being more aggressive at attacking the hoop.

If you look at that threesome from Game 20 onward, their Net Rating was an even more impressive +14.6.   That's around when Gordon also started to play better.   

So what is most interesting about this latter sample (219.5 minutes) is that it is almost entirely without Kyrie or Al Horford (because Jaylen and Gordon had moved to the bench).    In fact, this sample is almost exclusively those three guys with Daniel Theis and Terry Rozier as the other two players!!

The point is:   These three guys already have a track record of playing very well together.   And there are some basic fundamental reasons why this trio should be successful.

Not many teams are able to field three defenders who can handle athletic, scoring wings of this size.  Against the vast majority of lineups, having all three of Hayward, Brown & Tatum on the floor means that at least one of them is going to have a match up advantage, either because they are guarded by a small guard or because they are guarded by a slow big.

Defensively, they have the advantage of all three being able to switch on everything.  And if any one of them gets the 'weak' offensive player from the other team, they can cheat, while still having the length and athleticism to recover.   This allows them to show more doubles and help.

Finally, let's look at Brad's offensive philosophy:

I firmly believe that Brad is going to always want to have 2 playmakers on the floor.  And further, he really prefers that to be in the form of a 'point guard' and a 'point forward'.   Ever since he got here, that's what he's tried to do.   Going all the way back to trying to use Jeff Green as a "point forward" with Rondo.   He would later use Olynyk and Sully in that role.    Al Horford was his dream big man, playing that role with first Isaiah and then Kyrie.   Brad loves having a secondary playmaker who can see over the defense and who can get the ball to his scoring guard in motion, and who is also a threat to make a scoring action of his own.

At the moment, the only proven 'point forward' that we have on the roster is Gordon Hayward.   Grant Williams has potential but he's just a rookie.   Both Jaylen and Jayson in theory have potential to grow these skills way down the road, but they are both really more natural as finishers than playmakers.   So again, that really just leaves Hayward as the logical replacement for Al Horford's role in the offense.

So Brad is going to play Kemba and Hayward to start in the two playmaker roles.   Beyond those guys, Smart is really our only other experienced playmaker.   So it makes a lot of sense to bring him off the bench.   He is big enough to act as a 'playmaking wing' opposite Kemba as 'point guard' as well as able to act as a 'point guard' opposite Hayward's 'point forward'.   I.E., I expect Brad to try to initially always have these two-man pairings on the floor during critical minutes:

Kemba+Hayward
Kemba+Smart
Smart+Hayward

Other playmaker duos such as "Smart+Grant" or "Carson+Grant" and so on are probably only going to be seen during "developmental" minutes for the near term.

So that's my argument for why I think we will start the "3-wing" lineup.
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2019, 07:16:33 PM »

Offline Birdman

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I still bring Hayward off the bench cause we have no scorers on the bench
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2019, 08:20:34 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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If you look at that threesome from Game 20 onward, their Net Rating was an even more impressive +14.6.   That's around when Gordon also started to play better.   

So what is most interesting about this latter sample (219.5 minutes) is that it is almost entirely without Kyrie or Al Horford (because Jaylen and Gordon had moved to the bench).    In fact, this sample is almost exclusively those three guys with Daniel Theis and Terry Rozier as the other two players!!

Game 20 onward means that you are talking about 63 games.  219.5 minutes averages to about 3.5 minutes per game that this unit played together.  I don't feel that is enough of a sample size to conclude this this should be our primary unit for this season.  I would like to see this unit about as much as last season, call it 300 minutes.  A season is 3,936 minutes. 

For the record, I am not concerned with choosing the primary lineup based on preserving bench scoring.  I just think you need more size on the court then you would get with one big, 3 wings, and a PG.  I also think you end up having to ask one of the three wings to play out of position.  Someone is going to have to play the big role and defend and rebound.

Out of necessity, we are going to see more small units this season I am sure.  That is not the end of the world, but it is far from ideal.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2019, 08:33:48 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I was already in favor of this, but you make a very compelling argument, mmmmm (even with a less than ideal sample size).

I am not particularly worried about Hayward or Tatum playing PF; Morris was hardly a true PF and he even played small-ball C at times.

Without Kyrie (and to some extent, Terry and Morris), I think this team is going to play a lot more free while also having more defined/expected roles. All these players will have the opportunity to succeed this season and, if they don't, it will be their fault, not somebody else's. The season can't come soon enough!

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2019, 08:39:27 PM »

Online Fierce1

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I agree the starters should be Kemba, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, and Kanter.

One of the 3 among Brown, Hayward, and Tatum can come out after 7 minutes then return at the start of the 2nd qtr. along with Smart and Carsen.

That way the Celts will still have scoring on the 2nd unit.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2019, 08:46:21 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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I still bring Hayward off the bench cause we have no scorers on the bench
If Hayward is near to his old form, he's going to start. You don't disrespect a veteran all star for lineup convenience, and Brad especially isn't going to do that to Gordon.

If he's not near his old form, all bets are off and he may start the game on the pine.

There is not really a "2nd unit", there won't be often that at least a couple starters aren't on the floor.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2019, 08:58:50 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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I still bring Hayward off the bench cause we have no scorers on the bench
mmmmm covers this exact point in his opening post. he projects that CBS will always have at least one to two starters on the floor in most games. therefore, there will always be a scorer on the floor.
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2019, 09:57:53 PM »

Offline Celts Fan 508

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I hope one of the other players steps up at the post position so Kanter can lead the second unit but I agree with your point about starting 3 wings.  TP for a well put together argument
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2019, 10:51:30 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Nice post although Iím baffled about why this is even a question. The idea that Hayward will come off the bench is nuts...

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2019, 11:20:03 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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If you look at that threesome from Game 20 onward, their Net Rating was an even more impressive +14.6.   That's around when Gordon also started to play better.   

So what is most interesting about this latter sample (219.5 minutes) is that it is almost entirely without Kyrie or Al Horford (because Jaylen and Gordon had moved to the bench).    In fact, this sample is almost exclusively those three guys with Daniel Theis and Terry Rozier as the other two players!!

Game 20 onward means that you are talking about 63 games.  219.5 minutes averages to about 3.5 minutes per game that this unit played together.  I don't feel that is enough of a sample size to conclude this this should be our primary unit for this season.  I would like to see this unit about as much as last season, call it 300 minutes.  A season is 3,936 minutes. 

Thats not a correct way to look at the minute total.  Those minutes weren't spread across 63 games.  They only played those three players together in a total of 59 games (for a total of 386 minutes).   The 219.5 minute sample was spread across 43 games, meaning it was used an average of 5.1 mpg.   That may not sound like much, but that was still our 15th most-used 3-man lineup over the last 63 games and overall is a sampling of 450 offensive and 446 defensive possessions.

Let's express this in a slightly different way.   Over the last 63 games we had only nine 5-man lineups that played over 50 minutes total.   One of those was the starting 5 of KI+MS+JT+MM+AH, which played a massive 474.3 minutes, posting a Net Rating of +5.1.   No other 5-man unit used broke even 90 minutes over that span.

The second most-used 5-man lineup was the Rozier+Jaylen+Gordon+Tatum+Theis unit, which played 87.0 minutes and posted a +19.5 Net Rating.    Repeat:  This was the 2nd most utilized 5-man lineup over the last 63 games.

So while these minute totals may seem small compared to a season total of minutes and especially compared to the starting unit, this wasn't really some obscure, never utilized lineup.
Quote
For the record, I am not concerned with choosing the primary lineup based on preserving bench scoring.  I just think you need more size on the court then you would get with one big, 3 wings, and a PG.  I also think you end up having to ask one of the three wings to play out of position.  Someone is going to have to play the big role and defend and rebound.

Out of necessity, we are going to see more small units this season I am sure.  That is not the end of the world, but it is far from ideal.

Against some lineups, I'd agree and would like to have 2 bigs up front.  But all three of our wings are athletic enough to at least credibly defend most modern 4s, especially with so many playing on the perimeter.   And the mismatch works tremendously to our benefit on the other end of the court.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 11:32:44 PM by mmmmm »
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2019, 11:42:33 PM »

Online gouki88

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TP. I've been on board with this idea for a while, and the statistical analysis backs up the memory I had of those 3 on the court in the latter two thirds of the season.

As long as Brad is able to manage the rotations as you write, in that there should usually be at least one of Kemba or GH on the court, then I think we'll be fine.
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2019, 02:38:01 AM »

Online Fierce1

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I think the Celts will start the season with that lineup, but I think it will be a different starting 5 when the playoffs start.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2019, 08:02:50 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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If you look at that threesome from Game 20 onward, their Net Rating was an even more impressive +14.6.   That's around when Gordon also started to play better.   

So what is most interesting about this latter sample (219.5 minutes) is that it is almost entirely without Kyrie or Al Horford (because Jaylen and Gordon had moved to the bench).    In fact, this sample is almost exclusively those three guys with Daniel Theis and Terry Rozier as the other two players!!

Game 20 onward means that you are talking about 63 games.  219.5 minutes averages to about 3.5 minutes per game that this unit played together.  I don't feel that is enough of a sample size to conclude this this should be our primary unit for this season.  I would like to see this unit about as much as last season, call it 300 minutes.  A season is 3,936 minutes. 

Thats not a correct way to look at the minute total.  Those minutes weren't spread across 63 games.  They only played those three players together in a total of 59 games (for a total of 386 minutes).   The 219.5 minute sample was spread across 43 games, meaning it was used an average of 5.1 mpg.   That may not sound like much, but that was still our 15th most-used 3-man lineup over the last 63 games and overall is a sampling of 450 offensive and 446 defensive possessions.

Let's express this in a slightly different way.   Over the last 63 games we had only nine 5-man lineups that played over 50 minutes total.   One of those was the starting 5 of KI+MS+JT+MM+AH, which played a massive 474.3 minutes, posting a Net Rating of +5.1.   No other 5-man unit used broke even 90 minutes over that span.

The second most-used 5-man lineup was the Rozier+Jaylen+Gordon+Tatum+Theis unit, which played 87.0 minutes and posted a +19.5 Net Rating.    Repeat:  This was the 2nd most utilized 5-man lineup over the last 63 games.

So while these minute totals may seem small compared to a season total of minutes and especially compared to the starting unit, this wasn't really some obscure, never utilized lineup.
Quote
For the record, I am not concerned with choosing the primary lineup based on preserving bench scoring.  I just think you need more size on the court then you would get with one big, 3 wings, and a PG.  I also think you end up having to ask one of the three wings to play out of position.  Someone is going to have to play the big role and defend and rebound.

Out of necessity, we are going to see more small units this season I am sure.  That is not the end of the world, but it is far from ideal.

Against some lineups, I'd agree and would like to have 2 bigs up front.  But all three of our wings are athletic enough to at least credibly defend most modern 4s, especially with so many playing on the perimeter.   And the mismatch works tremendously to our benefit on the other end of the court.

You have shown some number but numbers say different things depending on how you look at them.  In my case, I have a admitted bias towards bigger lineups so I see the numbers and see that what its shows is you can get away with these small units for short periods of time so long and for the vast majority of the time you have Morris and Horford playing.

I don't disagree that you can put Tatum out there and say go cover Pascal Siakam (just for example) and he will do it and it won't be the end of the world (for short periods of time).  I would rather put Tatum out there and say go play like a wing though and have a true big (or swing big like Morris) do the the other things.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2019, 08:31:42 AM »

Offline Moranis

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If you look at that threesome from Game 20 onward, their Net Rating was an even more impressive +14.6.   That's around when Gordon also started to play better.   

So what is most interesting about this latter sample (219.5 minutes) is that it is almost entirely without Kyrie or Al Horford (because Jaylen and Gordon had moved to the bench).    In fact, this sample is almost exclusively those three guys with Daniel Theis and Terry Rozier as the other two players!!

Game 20 onward means that you are talking about 63 games.  219.5 minutes averages to about 3.5 minutes per game that this unit played together.  I don't feel that is enough of a sample size to conclude this this should be our primary unit for this season.  I would like to see this unit about as much as last season, call it 300 minutes.  A season is 3,936 minutes. 

Thats not a correct way to look at the minute total.  Those minutes weren't spread across 63 games.  They only played those three players together in a total of 59 games (for a total of 386 minutes).   The 219.5 minute sample was spread across 43 games, meaning it was used an average of 5.1 mpg.   That may not sound like much, but that was still our 15th most-used 3-man lineup over the last 63 games and overall is a sampling of 450 offensive and 446 defensive possessions.

Let's express this in a slightly different way.   Over the last 63 games we had only nine 5-man lineups that played over 50 minutes total.   One of those was the starting 5 of KI+MS+JT+MM+AH, which played a massive 474.3 minutes, posting a Net Rating of +5.1.   No other 5-man unit used broke even 90 minutes over that span.

The second most-used 5-man lineup was the Rozier+Jaylen+Gordon+Tatum+Theis unit, which played 87.0 minutes and posted a +19.5 Net Rating.    Repeat:  This was the 2nd most utilized 5-man lineup over the last 63 games.

So while these minute totals may seem small compared to a season total of minutes and especially compared to the starting unit, this wasn't really some obscure, never utilized lineup.
Quote
For the record, I am not concerned with choosing the primary lineup based on preserving bench scoring.  I just think you need more size on the court then you would get with one big, 3 wings, and a PG.  I also think you end up having to ask one of the three wings to play out of position.  Someone is going to have to play the big role and defend and rebound.

Out of necessity, we are going to see more small units this season I am sure.  That is not the end of the world, but it is far from ideal.

Against some lineups, I'd agree and would like to have 2 bigs up front.  But all three of our wings are athletic enough to at least credibly defend most modern 4s, especially with so many playing on the perimeter.   And the mismatch works tremendously to our benefit on the other end of the court.

You have shown some number but numbers say different things depending on how you look at them.  In my case, I have a admitted bias towards bigger lineups so I see the numbers and see that what its shows is you can get away with these small units for short periods of time so long and for the vast majority of the time you have Morris and Horford playing.

I don't disagree that you can put Tatum out there and say go cover Pascal Siakam (just for example) and he will do it and it won't be the end of the world (for short periods of time).  I would rather put Tatum out there and say go play like a wing though and have a true big (or swing big like Morris) do the the other things.
The problem is there are no PF's on this team that aren't rookies or deep bench level type players.  Tatum has to play PF because quite simply there is no one else.  The only other person that you could even make an argument to start is Smart and he makes the team smaller and that makes Wanamaker the only back-up PG on the roster (again a real problem). 

The simple truth is, the roster construction is a hot mess. 
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2019, 08:43:07 AM »

Offline PAOBoston

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If you look at that threesome from Game 20 onward, their Net Rating was an even more impressive +14.6.   That's around when Gordon also started to play better.   

So what is most interesting about this latter sample (219.5 minutes) is that it is almost entirely without Kyrie or Al Horford (because Jaylen and Gordon had moved to the bench).    In fact, this sample is almost exclusively those three guys with Daniel Theis and Terry Rozier as the other two players!!

Game 20 onward means that you are talking about 63 games.  219.5 minutes averages to about 3.5 minutes per game that this unit played together.  I don't feel that is enough of a sample size to conclude this this should be our primary unit for this season.  I would like to see this unit about as much as last season, call it 300 minutes.  A season is 3,936 minutes. 

Thats not a correct way to look at the minute total.  Those minutes weren't spread across 63 games.  They only played those three players together in a total of 59 games (for a total of 386 minutes).   The 219.5 minute sample was spread across 43 games, meaning it was used an average of 5.1 mpg.   That may not sound like much, but that was still our 15th most-used 3-man lineup over the last 63 games and overall is a sampling of 450 offensive and 446 defensive possessions.

Let's express this in a slightly different way.   Over the last 63 games we had only nine 5-man lineups that played over 50 minutes total.   One of those was the starting 5 of KI+MS+JT+MM+AH, which played a massive 474.3 minutes, posting a Net Rating of +5.1.   No other 5-man unit used broke even 90 minutes over that span.

The second most-used 5-man lineup was the Rozier+Jaylen+Gordon+Tatum+Theis unit, which played 87.0 minutes and posted a +19.5 Net Rating.    Repeat:  This was the 2nd most utilized 5-man lineup over the last 63 games.

So while these minute totals may seem small compared to a season total of minutes and especially compared to the starting unit, this wasn't really some obscure, never utilized lineup.
Quote
For the record, I am not concerned with choosing the primary lineup based on preserving bench scoring.  I just think you need more size on the court then you would get with one big, 3 wings, and a PG.  I also think you end up having to ask one of the three wings to play out of position.  Someone is going to have to play the big role and defend and rebound.

Out of necessity, we are going to see more small units this season I am sure.  That is not the end of the world, but it is far from ideal.

Against some lineups, I'd agree and would like to have 2 bigs up front.  But all three of our wings are athletic enough to at least credibly defend most modern 4s, especially with so many playing on the perimeter.   And the mismatch works tremendously to our benefit on the other end of the court.

You have shown some number but numbers say different things depending on how you look at them.  In my case, I have a admitted bias towards bigger lineups so I see the numbers and see that what its shows is you can get away with these small units for short periods of time so long and for the vast majority of the time you have Morris and Horford playing.

I don't disagree that you can put Tatum out there and say go cover Pascal Siakam (just for example) and he will do it and it won't be the end of the world (for short periods of time).  I would rather put Tatum out there and say go play like a wing though and have a true big (or swing big like Morris) do the the other things.
The problem is there are no PF's on this team that aren't rookies or deep bench level type players.  Tatum has to play PF because quite simply there is no one else.  The only other person that you could even make an argument to start is Smart and he makes the team smaller and that makes Wanamaker the only back-up PG on the roster (again a real problem). 

The simple truth is, the roster construction is a hot mess.
I donít think they view positions like that. They donít view players as PF or SFs. Also, I think they are going with the current roster as is knowing limitations but Iíd expect a deal at some point to address it. Roster is a work in progress.