Tatum was only at 15.7 ppg on 13.1 shots. Even with 3 more shots a game he'd still be at 19.3 ppg and I'm just not sure that is enough unless Boston has a great record. Now if he picks up his efficiency a bit, then that extra 3 shots will probably get him an all star appearance. That said, I'm not really sure he gets an extra 3 shots a game. I think Hayward is far more likely to see a significant shot increase, as is Smart. I'd even put Brown ahead of Tatum as far as a shot increase. I also think collectively Walker and Kanter will take more shots than Irving and Horford did.
Jaylen's probably just not there yet, if he ever will be. I like him and his potential as a 2 way player, but he just doesn't have anywhere near the polish JT does, and that's the sort of thing that gets a guy on the all star team.
I'd put the over/under at 1.5, and I'd take the over because I think Tatum is going to break out. Kemba's almost a lock, but I think that unless he has a monster year, Hayward is more likely to win come back player of the year rather than all star. Feels like he'll need a good year just to rehabilitate his reputation.
This is how I feel too, I think tatum will get a few more shots up this year without Morris and Rozier not around. That could very be the difference in him making it
Why do you think brown will see a bigger uptick In shots than tatum? I feel like Brown is viewed a bit more as a defensive player than a scorer where it is the opposite with Tatum. Hayward is a really good passer and I think he will take on some of the passing that we are losing with Horford. I agree with you there is a chance we get more shots from kanter than we got from Horford, but Morris and rozier were really high volume shooters. In roziers case it was atrocious cause he was hitting 39%
I think Brown is going to spend a lot of time in the 2nd unit and with the loss of Rozier and Morris/Hayward from that unit, I think he will benefit a great deal from those extra shots. I also think Brown is going to be in the 30 minute range, while I don't think Tatum is going to increase his minutes at all. So I think Brown will actually be taking Rozier/Morris minutes (along with Smart and Hayward) and that matters where shots are concerned. I fully expect a much tighter rotation at the top this year as the team just isn't as deep overall.
Hayward is the guy that seemingly had his shots depressed the most last year. He was steadily increasing his shots every year in Utah and was near 16 shots a game his last year there, he was at a meager 8.8 last year. I don't think Hayward gets back up to 15.8, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him around 13 shots a game this year. In fact, if Boston is going to be successful I think it is because Hayward is getting that level of shots (in addition to being the 2nd offensive initiator behind Walker). Like Brown, I also expect Hayward to play an extra 5-8 minutes a game.
In addition, since I think Walker and Kanter will combine for more shots than Irving and Horford, I believe there won't be as many shots for Tatum who I expect to play the vast majority of his minutes with both Kanter and Walker (obviously Brown and Hayward will, but I think they will both spend a bit more time with the 2nd unit than Tatum does).
So if you clean up the rotation a bit, I would expect the minutes to be something like this for the regular season
PG - Walker 34, Smart 10, Wanamaker/Edwards 4
SG - Brown 15, Smart 20, Langford 13
SF - Hayward 31, Brown 17
PF - Tatum 32, Semi 10, G. Williams 6
C - Kanter 30, Theis 10, R. Williams 8
Obviously the playoff rotation tightens up, but I think that is what we will generally see over the course of the season the top 6 all getting in the 30-35 minute range and the younger guys just filling in here and there to get some experience. Tatum doesn't really see an increase in minutes, while Brown, Smart, and Hayward all do, which helps lead to the latter 3 all getting a fair amount of an increase in shots for that reason alone (in addition to the other reasons I described).
And as an aside, looking at that rotation, the interior is very very weak. If Kanter misses any time, the team is in real trouble. This has been the main reason I haven't been all that high on this team entering the year, and when you actually type out the rotation that issue becomes glaringly obvious. The roster construction has real issues. The team needs another big man badly (which is why I'd be fine taking a flyer on someone like Dwight Howard for the minimum).