Who makes the biggest sacrifice in scoring?

[LilRip]

So we have 4 guys on this roster who could all average pretty good scoring numbers if given a high enough usage rate. They could fill the role of primary scoring option if you needed them too.

But like we’ve seen on other talented teams, when you have a bunch of superstars, it seems like the optimal choice is to have 3 main scorers. This means someone among Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Hayward is likely going to end up being a Draymond, a JR Smith, a Chalmers, etc.

I would think Kemba/Tatum/Hayward are going to be our best players next year, but I really can’t imagine Brown continuing to settle for that distant 4th role. So is it Hayward? While Hayward would be a great facilitator, I think it’d be crazy if he wasn’t one of our top scoring options too. I mean, he’s not really a point guard out there. He just makes a lot of right reads but he’s at his best when he’s a threat to score.

That said, I think the worst outcome would be if the coaching staff tries to get these guys to spread the wealth too thinly again like last year, which reduces everyone’s effectiveness on offense.

[Jiri Welsch]

I think this all depends on what people are expecting each player's PPG to be at. Is each guy expected to average 20 PPG? Is Kemba supposed to average 25 PPG and Jaylen 15 PPG?

My prediction for next year is:

Kemba: 23 ppg
Tatum: 21 ppg
Hayward: 17 ppg
Brown: 16 ppg

But in that scenario, I don't really see anyone taking a scoring sacrifice.

[Surferdad]

I don't see why any of those guys have to sacrifice.  Al Horford and Marcus Morris both averaged 14 ppg and they are gone.

[dannyboy35]

I would LIKE it to be Tatum because I think he takes a lot of bad shots.  My friend said that “ Tatum said he’s gonna average 20 pats a game and make the all star team.” If that’s true, that really concerns me. If Hayward is what he was then he’s better at pretty much every aspect of the game than Tatum. In some categories like ball handling/ passing he is in another stratosphere. Tatum has to be able to respect the hierarchy if his touches are behind Gordon. Same goes for Smart. Brad really hurt Jaylen in benching him last year. I worry Smart can be a cool dude going back to the bench.

[W8ting2McHale]

If they pass the ball instead of settling for iso-ball, than they can all eat.

I think Kemba will run off cuts for some Ray Allen style 3s, that Hayward will get some of those back door cuts he’s always open for but rarely got the ball on, that Jaylen will score more on fast break transitions and will pass out of instead of forcing drives to the basket, and that Tatum will feed off all that movement and score off shooting more efficient shots. Kanter (or whoever is inside) will score on pick and rolls, offensive rebounds and lobs and just take what the game gives them.

Kemba- 22 -3 -6
Tatum- 19.5 -6 -3
Hayward- 18 -6 -5
Brown- 17.5 -5 -3.5
Kanter- 13 -9 - 2
Smart- 8 -4 -5

[nickagneta]

Given the lack of scorer's across the team except for Kemba, Hayward, Tatum and Brown, I don't see anyone sacrificing their offense.

Last year we had Kyrie, Horford, Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Rozier and Morris all trying to get their shots. Between them they took slightly over 71 shots a game. This year there will be just 5 guys(Kanter included) trying to get those shots instead 7.

I expect those 4 guys all to be over 16 PPG and the shots being something like:

Kemba 18
Tatum 15.5
Brown 14.5
Hayward 13
Kanter 10

There is your 71 shots. I have Hayward taking less shots than some might think because he will be a main facillitator and might lead the team in assists.

[jbpats]

I hope it's Kemba, since this team needs more of a facilitating PG then a ball dominate one.. based of course on last years sample size.

[LilRip]

I think this all depends on what people are expecting each player's PPG to be at. Is each guy expected to average 20 PPG? Is Kemba supposed to average 25 PPG and Jaylen 15 PPG?

My prediction for next year is:

Kemba: 23 ppg
Tatum: 21 ppg
Hayward: 17 ppg
Brown: 16 ppg

But in that scenario, I don't really see anyone taking a scoring sacrifice.

Hmm, I don’t know how feasible that spread is, especially considering we have other capable role players on our team like Smart and Kanter.  Looking at previous champs’ points leaders spread:

2012 Heat: 27, 22, 18, 10
2013 Heat: 26, 21, 17, 11
2014 Spurs: 17, 15, 13, 12 (11, 10, 9)
2015 Warriors: 24, 22, 12, 10 (10)
2016 Cavs: 25, 20, 16, 12
*2016 Warriors: 30, 22, 14, 12
2017 Warriors: 25, 25, 22, 10
2018 Warriors: 26, 26, 20, 11
2019 Raptors: 27, 17, 15, 14
*2019 Warriors: 27, 26, 21, 7

The Spurs were pretty crazy having their spread like that but I guess when you have a team of old guys in Parker/Duncan/Ginobili alongside just 1 prospect in Kawhi, guys don’t mind having shots taken away from them.

The 2015 Warriors were interesting too, although one of the 10ppg scorers was Barnes who left in FA.

The 2016 Cavs is probably the most balanced it gets, with Lebron scoring 25 (not hard to imagine Kemba scoring about 23-25) and Kyrie scoring 20 (not hard to imagine Tatum making that leap). Love scored at 16ppg, which would be probably where Hayward could slot in, albeit a little underutilized imo. But at 12ppg, how happy would Brown be in his contract year?

But with your spread, that’s about 80ppg across 4 players, give or take. And again, guys like Smart and Kanter are probably gonna have to average close to 10ppg. Kanter’s a strong candidate for a double double at any given night, especially since he’ll likely get a bunch of minutes with us. So the 2 of them will probably split 20-25ppg.

And if the rest of the rotation (assuming 3-4 more guys out of a 9-10 player rotation) average about 5-6 ppg each (Theis averages 6ppg and he’s barely a rotational player), then that’s another 15-20ppg. 

How many points will the C’s average a night? Around 120? That puts us pretty much top of the league (last year we only averaged 112). It’s possible but I don’t know if it’s likely. I think what’s more likely is that the 4th guy (Brown?) has to average closer to 10ppg kinda like Smart/Kanter than he is to 20ppg (like presumably Walker/Tatum).

[LilRip]

Given the lack of scorer's across the team except for Kemba, Hayward, Tatum and Brown, I don't see anyone sacrificing their offense.

Last year we had Kyrie, Horford, Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Rozier and Morris all trying to get their shots. Between them they took slightly over 71 shots a game. This year there will be just 5 guys(Kanter included) trying to get those shots instead 7.

I expect those 4 guys all to be over 16 PPG and the shots being something like:

Kemba 18
Tatum 15.5
Brown 14.5
Hayward 13
Kanter 10

There is your 71 shots. I have Hayward taking less shots than some might think because he will be a main facillitator and might lead the team in assists.

Then it seems like your answer is Hayward. 13 shots is noticeably less than the shots he was used to taking when he was an all star in Utah (not counting FTAs in this quick calculation of course) and 15-16 FGA’s each for the Jays are noticeably higher than their previous years.

In general though, not a fan of this spread the wealth evenly type of approach though. I think we’ll end up with less than the sum of our parts again, even if guys like each other now.

[dannyboy35]

  I think Hayward is by far the best player of the 3 but  Brown may be the one with the highest ceiling for WHEN we can MAYBE compete for something. Jaylen is by far the best defensive player at both guard and small forward. He’s the only one that can do a better than average job on 2 guards. Hayward and especially Tatum will get road lasted off the dribble. I feel like a lot of people don’t value Jaylen’s defensive potential.
  It’s unpopular but Tatum is the guy I think is hardest to incorporate with other players.if he’s not scoring he isn’t really doing much unlike Hayward who can create for others and Jaylen who can kick down a guy as well as most great defensive players.

[Silky]

 hayward sacrafices.

Tatum and brown deserve shots and need to get them.

Next, imo, is Kemba. Starting pg, brads system of getting pgs rolling...expect a big year from Walker.

[nickagneta]

Given the lack of scorer's across the team except for Kemba, Hayward, Tatum and Brown, I don't see anyone sacrificing their offense.

Last year we had Kyrie, Horford, Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Rozier and Morris all trying to get their shots. Between them they took slightly over 71 shots a game. This year there will be just 5 guys(Kanter included) trying to get those shots instead 7.

I expect those 4 guys all to be over 16 PPG and the shots being something like:

Kemba 18
Tatum 15.5
Brown 14.5
Hayward 13
Kanter 10

There is your 71 shots. I have Hayward taking less shots than some might think because he will be a main facillitator and might lead the team in assists.

Then it seems like your answer is Hayward. 13 shots is noticeably less than the shots he was used to taking when he was an all star in Utah (not counting FTAs in this quick calculation of course) and 15-16 FGA’s each for the Jays are noticeably higher than their previous years.

In general though, not a fan of this spread the wealth evenly type of approach though. I think we’ll end up with less than the sum of our parts again, even if guys like each other now.

In Gordon's last 4 years in Utah, he averaged 14.6 FGA/game. Him taking 13 in Boston isn't much of a sacrifice,  especially if he is getting to the line 4-6 times a game.

[Fafnir]

I hope its Kemba (compared to last year's PPG/Usage), because to be a great team I think we need to get Hayward/Brown/Tatum rolling.

[Donoghus]

I hope its Kemba (compared to last year's PPG/Usage), because to be a great team I think we need to get Hayward/Brown/Tatum rolling.

Ditto.  Absolutely.

We saw what ball dominance did to the offense at times last season. 

That being said, the kids & Hayward need to step up better than they did last season.

[pearljammer10]

Brown sacrificed a lot last year and I think will get his number called and a bigger chance with it this year. To a certain extent so did Tatum. Hayward was forcefed and probably won't see a drop off but an increase. I think Kemba, willingly, sacrifices some scoring and sees a spike in assist numbers. He's ready to spread his talents and stop carrying a team as much as he can.

Without the shots Horford, Rozier, and the block hole that is Morris required, I don't see there being an issue with this next season.