Poll

Tatum + Memphis pick for JJJ. Would you do it?

Yes
8 (15.7%)
No
32 (62.7%)
I'd only do it straight up. Offering Tatum on his own should get it done.
11 (21.6%)

Total Members Voted: 51

Author Topic: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.  (Read 2878 times)

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Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2019, 07:55:11 AM »

Offline Jvalin

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You have to have a guy who is willing to do all the grunt work on D. It's not easy to find somebody who is willing to do all that thankless stuff if they're a player who has any worth on offense. It's got to be somebody with a dogged, defensive mentality and selfless attitude. Tatum is trying to be an offensive superstar and he's only what, 21 years old? He's not going to do that. Even if he wanted to, he doesn't have the body to.

This team is a work-in-progress and their identity is not going to be defense. They simply don't have the personnel.
Imo, this is the problem right there (the bolded part). It's not a matter of will. He simply isn't big enough. No matter how hard he tries, most of the times he's gonna have to guard taller/longer/heavier/stronger opponents. It's a mismatch waiting to happen.


The question:why do you consider him a PF rather than a 5? He’s listed at 6’11”, wingspan 7’4”, weight 243. Given his age and build I expect him to add a little weight/strength as he grows into his prime, and he’s not afraid of contact. While he has good foot speed for a center he’s only so-so next to a PF. To me, he’s a center.
Agreed. The way I see it, he can play either at the 4 or at the 5. Long term, I believe he'll end up playing at the 5. Sort of like Horford who started at the 4 and ended up playing mostly at the 5.

Last season, JJJ played the vast majority of his minutes at the 4. Likewise, if he were to join the C's, I would see him playing at the 4 alongside Kanter. I believe he would be a great fit next to him. Certainly a better fit than Tatum.


The issue: Memphis just drafted Morant and Clarke, who fit well next to JJJ. Swap Tatum in for JJJ and I think they’re unbalanced. Net, I think this ship has sailed.
Well, I could definitely see all 3 of Morant-Tatum-Clarke playing together.

Obviously, the whole idea is kind of a long shot. Chances are that the Grizzlies would have zero incentive to part ways with JJJ. He's an elite prospect. But then again, so is Tatum.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #31 on: July 22, 2019, 08:31:54 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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The Celtics aren’t “forced” to play small. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to get bigger and rarely do so. No matter how many threads to the contrary, it’s what CBS wants to do, and the league in general is moving that direction.

Is that true? I mean, the first max FAs they went after were Horford and Durant. They would have been a really long team if they’d got em both. Tatum was BPA the year they had the top pick. If we’d held that pick the following year my bet is we’d have JJJ now. There is luck involved here.

When Horford left this year there wasn’t a plausible big available at the skill level. Sure, they could have put a max deal in front of Vuc if they were hell bent on getting bigger, but he folded in the playoffs last year and Kemba almost surely represents more skill at his position. Let’s see what they do at the deadline.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2019, 08:46:58 AM »

Offline Jvalin

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The Celtics aren’t “forced” to play small. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to get bigger and rarely do so. No matter how many threads to the contrary, it’s what CBS wants to do, and the league in general is moving that direction.

Is that true? I mean, the first max FAs they went after were Horford and Durant. They would have been a really long team if they’d got em both. Tatum was BPA the year they had the top pick. If we’d held that pick the following year my bet is we’d have JJJ now. There is luck involved here.

When Horford left this year there wasn’t a plausible big available at the skill level. Sure, they could have put a max deal in front of Vuc if they were hell bent on getting bigger, but he folded in the playoffs last year and Kemba almost surely represents more skill at his position. Let’s see what they do at the deadline.
Gimme Luka over JJJ! Pay Horford that extra 4th year and keep him in Boston.

Luka (6' 7")
Brown (6' 7")
Hayward (6' 8")
Tatum (6' 8")
Horford (6' 10")

Switch every ball screen on D
Ask Luka to get everybody involved on offense

A man can dream 8)

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #33 on: July 22, 2019, 09:00:41 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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The Celtics aren’t “forced” to play small. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to get bigger and rarely do so. No matter how many threads to the contrary, it’s what CBS wants to do, and the league in general is moving that direction.

Is that true? I mean, the first max FAs they went after were Horford and Durant. They would have been a really long team if they’d got em both. Tatum was BPA the year they had the top pick. If we’d held that pick the following year my bet is we’d have JJJ now. There is luck involved here.

When Horford left this year there wasn’t a plausible big available at the skill level. Sure, they could have put a max deal in front of Vuc if they were hell bent on getting bigger, but he folded in the playoffs last year and Kemba almost surely represents more skill at his position. Let’s see what they do at the deadline.
Gimme Luka over JJJ! Pay Horford that extra 4th year and keep him in Boston.

Luka (6' 7")
Brown (6' 7")
Hayward (6' 8")
Tatum (6' 8")
Horford (6' 10")

Switch every ball screen on D
Ask Luka to get everybody involved on offense

A man can dream 8)

Ha. That's a nice team. Though the hypothetical was that we had the pick the year JJJ came out instead of the year Tatum was available.

What you're describing is a scenario in which we don't trade for Kyrie and the Nets pick moves up in the lottery. Which I could definitely get behind :) Prolly keep Baynes, too, in this alternative universe.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #34 on: July 22, 2019, 10:27:46 AM »

Offline LilRip

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Too expensive to acquire. I’d rather see what Brown could get us. Honestly, Brown’s market value is the max (or close to it). I don’t think he’s worth that and I don’t think the C’s should pay him that. Especially with us having to pay Tatum the following offseason too.

- LilRip

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #35 on: July 22, 2019, 11:02:34 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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I don't see the point of trading Tatum or Brown for a different young player at this point.


Trading them for an establish star (and I am hesitant on the Beal level at that), I understand.



Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #36 on: July 22, 2019, 02:10:31 PM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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The Celtics aren’t “forced” to play small. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to get bigger and rarely do so. No matter how many threads to the contrary, it’s what CBS wants to do, and the league in general is moving that direction.

See, I don't agree with this at all. Just because the Celtics choose not to play two plodding big men concurrently doesn't mean they wouldn't play two bigs if they were named Anthony Davis and Al Horford, two guys who have size, can play inside and rim protect but also have enough lateral movement to guard wings. The problem is it's very hard to get those guys. Forced with a choice between the guys you can get and the talent you actually have on your roster, of course Tatum and Hayward are going to be playing some 4, but it's not ideal.

Even the Warriors (which isn't necessarily a repeatable strategy when you consider no other team can boast three of the best shooters in the league on the perimeter) didn't play small all the time because it's not sustainable or preferable over a long season.

Also, it's not clear the league is getting smaller. Actually, the Bucks and Sixers are getting bigger. With GS less of a threat for at least this next season and perhaps going forward, you don't have to necessarily build a team specifically designed to counter their lineup of death.
Yo pretty boy. I looked up basketball player in the dictionary and it said 'Not you!'

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #37 on: July 22, 2019, 02:17:54 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I don't see the point of trading Tatum or Brown for a different young player at this point.


Trading them for an establish star (and I am hesitant on the Beal level at that), I understand.

I'm not advocating for it, but the reason you trade Brown for another young player is because you gain an additional year or two of rookie contract while also not worrying about paying max dollars (if that is a concern of Danny's).

Trading for an established star creates its own obstacles. First and foremost, you can say good-bye to Smart because you would need to match salary. And even more importantly, you might get a Kyrie situation where the player leaves in a year or two in UFA. Getting a different young player who should be a star gives you many more years of control and you get to pay only 25% of the max on their next contract.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #38 on: July 22, 2019, 02:44:01 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Count me in the minority of people that think JJJ has a fairly low ceiling. I mainly see him as a pretty good starter. At best, he looks like a young Ibaka to me.

His rebounding numbers at MSU and in Memphis have not been good. His block rate is a bit lower than I thought would be. His offensive game is not refined. He has little feel. He's a good shooter and can sometimes get a little hookshot over his left shoulder, but other than that, he really isn't a scorer. On top of that, his form restricts his ability to develop one-dribble pullups, fade aways, or any of the other shots that make a guy hard to stop.

He's fine. Really. But this isn't a trade that makes a ton of sense for anyone.
Most talent in the league. We don't want or need AD.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #39 on: July 22, 2019, 03:08:58 PM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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Count me in the minority of people that think JJJ has a fairly low ceiling. I mainly see him as a pretty good starter. At best, he looks like a young Ibaka to me.

His rebounding numbers at MSU and in Memphis have not been good. His block rate is a bit lower than I thought would be. His offensive game is not refined. He has little feel. He's a good shooter and can sometimes get a little hookshot over his left shoulder, but other than that, he really isn't a scorer. On top of that, his form restricts his ability to develop one-dribble pullups, fade aways, or any of the other shots that make a guy hard to stop.

He's fine. Really. But this isn't a trade that makes a ton of sense for anyone.

I would say Ibaka is his floor, not his ceiling.
Yo pretty boy. I looked up basketball player in the dictionary and it said 'Not you!'

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #40 on: July 22, 2019, 03:21:48 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Count me in the minority of people that think JJJ has a fairly low ceiling. I mainly see him as a pretty good starter. At best, he looks like a young Ibaka to me.

His rebounding numbers at MSU and in Memphis have not been good. His block rate is a bit lower than I thought would be. His offensive game is not refined. He has little feel. He's a good shooter and can sometimes get a little hookshot over his left shoulder, but other than that, he really isn't a scorer. On top of that, his form restricts his ability to develop one-dribble pullups, fade aways, or any of the other shots that make a guy hard to stop.

He's fine. Really. But this isn't a trade that makes a ton of sense for anyone.

I would say Ibaka is his floor, not his ceiling.

I guess we disagree. Didn't Ibaka make an all-star game? His floor is a fringe all-star?
Most talent in the league. We don't want or need AD.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #41 on: July 22, 2019, 03:23:10 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Ibaka never made the all-star team. He did make the all-defense first team three times.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #42 on: July 22, 2019, 03:29:19 PM »

Offline td450

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Count me in the minority of people that think JJJ has a fairly low ceiling. I mainly see him as a pretty good starter. At best, he looks like a young Ibaka to me.

His rebounding numbers at MSU and in Memphis have not been good. His block rate is a bit lower than I thought would be. His offensive game is not refined. He has little feel. He's a good shooter and can sometimes get a little hookshot over his left shoulder, but other than that, he really isn't a scorer. On top of that, his form restricts his ability to develop one-dribble pullups, fade aways, or any of the other shots that make a guy hard to stop.

He's fine. Really. But this isn't a trade that makes a ton of sense for anyone.

He's still 19 now, after a full season in the NBA. He scored 14 ppg fairly efficiently in 26 mpg. He's just about as good as Ibaka is now, in his prime. Anthony Davis posted slightly better stats his rookie year.

NBA players are very rarely any good until they are 23-24, even when they end up as all-stars.

Placing a ceiling on anyone before age 24 is unwise. At minimum, Jackson will very likely make several all-star teams.



Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #43 on: July 22, 2019, 03:52:32 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Count me in the minority of people that think JJJ has a fairly low ceiling. I mainly see him as a pretty good starter. At best, he looks like a young Ibaka to me.

His rebounding numbers at MSU and in Memphis have not been good. His block rate is a bit lower than I thought would be. His offensive game is not refined. He has little feel. He's a good shooter and can sometimes get a little hookshot over his left shoulder, but other than that, he really isn't a scorer. On top of that, his form restricts his ability to develop one-dribble pullups, fade aways, or any of the other shots that make a guy hard to stop.

He's fine. Really. But this isn't a trade that makes a ton of sense for anyone.

He's still 19 now, after a full season in the NBA. He scored 14 ppg fairly efficiently in 26 mpg. He's just about as good as Ibaka is now, in his prime. Anthony Davis posted slightly better stats his rookie year.

NBA players are very rarely any good until they are 23-24, even when they end up as all-stars.

Placing a ceiling on anyone before age 24 is unwise. At minimum, Jackson will very likely make several all-star teams.

14 ppg game on a 20 win team has to be taken in context. Tony Wroten had 13 ppg as a 20 year old on less minutes, but was out of the league a few years later.

I'm not basing my evaluation on ppg. 14 ppg in the NBA is impressive in its own right. How did he score? He was playing next to two of the best passers/facilitators in the NBA in Conley and Gasol. They got him great looks and he converted. Good for him.

My point is not that he stinks or anything. My point is about his style that might lower his floor. Jayson Tatum averaged more rebounds per 100 possessions than Jackson.

Jackson has also always had a serious problem with fouls (7.2 per 100 possessions!) -- that's something that a lot of young bigs struggle with, but that needs to be overcome before he can be a reliable defensive anchor.

He is effective in how he scores right now, but I'm not convinced he can score much more than he is. Maybe he can, but I don't see a real natural feel on offense, and there's no doubt that his shooting form restricts a lot of scoring moves that would take him to the next level as a scorer.

Again, my point is not that he is a bad player. He's a good young big, but I'm not as high on him as some. There's real holes to his game that lower his ceiling in my mind, but we will see if I'm right.
Most talent in the league. We don't want or need AD.

Re: Idea: Jaren Jackson Jr.
« Reply #44 on: July 22, 2019, 04:34:53 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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Count me in the minority of people that think JJJ has a fairly low ceiling. I mainly see him as a pretty good starter. At best, he looks like a young Ibaka to me.

His rebounding numbers at MSU and in Memphis have not been good. His block rate is a bit lower than I thought would be. His offensive game is not refined. He has little feel. He's a good shooter and can sometimes get a little hookshot over his left shoulder, but other than that, he really isn't a scorer. On top of that, his form restricts his ability to develop one-dribble pullups, fade aways, or any of the other shots that make a guy hard to stop.

He's fine. Really. But this isn't a trade that makes a ton of sense for anyone.
For a guy who goes by the nickname ''DefenseWinsChamps'', you don't seem to value elite defensive potential all that much. :P

The way I see it, JJJ is the best young* big man not named Zion.

*still on his first contract

If there was a re-draft of last year's class, I'd probably take him at #2.

1. Luka
2. JJJ
3. probably SGA

I'm super high on all 3 of those guys. Looking back, I guess we were a bit unlucky to end up with #3 and #1 in somehow weak drafts. Don't get me wrong, Danny did a terrific job in drafting Brown-Tatum (especially the trade down for Tatum was a masterpiece). I blame the draft gods, not Danny.

In retrospect, the 2018 draft looks great. There are also guys like Ayton, Trae Young, Bagley, Carter Jr., even Mo Bamba who had a slow start but the potential is still there based on his elite physical tools.

 

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