Why Boston Should Pass On Vucevic

[keevsnick]

Vucevic seems like a very popular option among Celtics fans to target with the teams max cap space, and there have been reports that the Celtics may do just that. Allw me to briefly outline why that is a bad idea.

1) Not on our timeline, Jaylen turns 23 and Jayson 22 while Vucevic turns 29 this season.

2) Will take shots away from the Jay's when we should be trying to develop and grow their offensive abilities.

3) Plays center, a mercenary position with the highest replacement level in the league. Its a bad idea to commit big money to a center value wise.

4) He will command 3-4 years, we should be focusing on shorter term deal of no more than two years to align our self with a stack 2021 free agency. Give time for Jaylen and Jayson to become stars and make us attractive that summer.

5) He just had the best year of his career, giving big money to a guy who made one all star team and had his best year in a contract year is never a good idea. For most of his career he's been a 14-18 ppg guy.

6) If your goal is to win playoff games, a guy who just got completely shut down in the first round probably isn't the best idea. Bigger post defenders can stop him, and he will get played off the floor at the highest levels.

The Celtics best path forward should be as follows. Roll with mostly  the team they currently have while adding some short term contract (two year contracts at big money, or bad money contracts for assets). See what the Jay's can do as the lead guys, whether its getting them more shots, developing their ball handling passing, running pick and rolls, ect. Go into summer 21 with Jaylen's new contract, Smart's contract, and Tatum's cap hold and rookie scale contracts as the only money on your books. Target a max level player that summer with cap space, or use the (hopefully) unprotected MEM lottery pick, young guys, and draft pick assets to trade for a star. Hell, with good timing you could do both. Notice this path doesn't work with Vucevic on a 3 or 4 year max or near max deal.

In summary, he's not a good fit, is a poor value, and doesn't fit our new timeline. Pass on Vucevic.

[footey]

I agree.

Just posted why Adams the better choice (4 years younger, shorter term commitment, better defensive player).

[Phantom255x]

Yeah I like Vucevic BUT I really don't understand people clamoring to sign him to a near max or even max deal. If he was 3-4 years younger, then sure, but otherwise I'm not a fan of it. I'd still love him if we could sign him to a modest 2-3 year deal, but I feel if that were his price, ORL would have no trouble beating it and keeping him.

[BitterJim]

I agree. I don't have a problem with him being older (like Horford was), but a big/long term deal just doesn't work with th Jaylen/Jayson timeline UNLESS that player is good enough that it doesn't matter (like a KD, Kawhi, etc., I'd even throw in the Klay Thompson tier of perennial-all-star-but-not-a-superstar would be good enough).

Vucevic is a very good player, but very good (on a long-term, market-value deal) isn't really what we need right now

[dreamgreen]

1. teams need veterans
2. you can't have guys all on the same time line contract wise that's a bad plan, need to have expiring contracts in time to resign young guys going forward until the NBA changes the worse salary cap in sports!
3. he's a stretch 5 which Brad covets in his style of play
4. center is not the easiest position to replace there are very few real centers right now in the league and stretch 5's is the current trend

[nickagneta]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

[tazzmaniac]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

What's the goal to be a playoff team that gets bounced in the 1st round every year?  I don't think we can be a contender if we're giving bick bucks to Vucevic.  I also think he'll be difficult to move with a big contract if an opportunity to get a star presents itself. 

[rondofan1255]

I agree.

Just posted why Adams the better choice (4 years younger, shorter term commitment, better defensive player).

This. If they are going to choose between those two, I prefer Adams too.

Also, Vucevic comes with the injury-prone label that was often used against Kyrie

[keevsnick]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

I will grant you that not being the same age as the rest of our guys isnt itself a reason not to sign Vuc. It's more that the age factor, in conjunction with everything else is the problem. He did not show he is still improving by having a big year in a contract year on a team that really needed him. He has has average between 13-20 point ever year since his rookie one, but there no real trend line to indicate last year wasn't an aberration. You aren't paying for a guaranteed 20ppg. And if you aren't competing during the first two years of the contract, and the last two years prevent you from acquiring a superior player then it's probably a bad idea.
 

[nickagneta]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

What's the goal to be a playoff team that gets bounced in the 1st round every year?  I don't think we can be a contender if we're giving bick bucks to Vucevic.  I also think he'll be difficult to move with a big contract if an opportunity to get a star presents itself.

Whether it's for Vucevic or someone else, adding a 28 year old All-Star, to a core that has ages 21-29 isn't screwing up a timeline. That is my point.

Just because your future hinges on a 21 and 22 year old doesn't mean you only surround them with players their age. And Vucevic being only 28 isn't so much older to think he wouldn't be a great contributor to the team for a good 6-7 years.

I find the whole "he isn't on this team's timeline" a recent media manufactured excuse to not add certain players extremely flawed. Teams bring youth into older teams all the time. Are they not supposed to bring youth into older teams because the timelines don't match? Of course not, that would be absurd. And the opposite holds true as well.

What did Philly add to their young core to take the next step forward? 29 year old All-Star Jimmy Butler. But, OMG, he didn't fit Simmons and Embiid's timeline. Heck, old man Amir Johnson has been on that team a couple years. Clearly, he didn't fit the timeline. Or maybe, just maybe, the timeline argument is complete bunk and a team needs players that are great players that could be great fits for the team, regardless of age.

Now is Vucevic a great fit for this team? I think an argument can be made both ways. Would Vucevic still be as effective in his age 32 year? I think an argument can be made both ways. Those are great things to talk about when bringing him in. His age of 28, to me, should be a non-factor. He isn't 34 or 35 and asking for a 4 year deal. He is 28 and younger than Hayward.

[GetLucky]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

I will grant you that not being the same age as the rest of our guys isnt itself a reason not to sign Vuc. It's more that the age factor, in conjunction with everything else is the problem. He did not show he is still improving by having a big year in a contract year on a team that really needed him. He has has average between 13-20 point ever year since his rookie one, but there no real trend line to indicate last year wasn't an aberration. You aren't paying for a guaranteed 20ppg. And if you aren't competing during the first two years of the contract, and the last two years prevent you from acquiring a superior player then it's probably a bad idea.

The Celtics won't have any cap space next year, regardless. Hayward opting in and Brown's extension will make sure of that.

[keevsnick]

1. teams need veterans
2. you can't have guys all on the same time line contract wise that's a bad plan, need to have expiring contracts in time to resign young guys going forward until the NBA changes the worse salary cap in sports!
3. he's a stretch 5 which Brad covets in his style of play
4. center is not the easiest position to replace there are very few real centers right now in the league and stretch 5's is the current trend

Point 4 is just wrong. Sure, there aren't many great centers. But that's not the point. The point is you can get a guy who will give you like 80% of what Vuc could (when you factor in defense especially) at probably less than half the price. Dedmon for example would be a far better value at around the mid-level. This general value disparity means paying a center is bad.

Also to point 3, Brad also coveys defense in his center's. So not Vuc.

To point 2. Nobody is saying everyone should be on the same timeline. I'm saying there is a higher upside path that involves shorter contracts that signing vuc makes more difficult.

Point one. Teams do not need vets, teams need chemistry. Having vets didnt help us last year. But we have smart, Hayward anyway so it's a moot point.

[keevsnick]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

I will grant you that not being the same age as the rest of our guys isnt itself a reason not to sign Vuc. It's more that the age factor, in conjunction with everything else is the problem. He did not show he is still improving by having a big year in a contract year on a team that really needed him. He has has average between 13-20 point ever year since his rookie one, but there no real trend line to indicate last year wasn't an aberration. You aren't paying for a guaranteed 20ppg. And if you aren't competing during the first two years of the contract, and the last two years prevent you from acquiring a superior player then it's probably a bad idea.

The Celtics won't have any cap space next year, regardless. Hayward opting in and Brown's extension will make sure of that.

Read my post. I'm not talking about next year. Next year is a garbage free agency year.

[nickagneta]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

I will grant you that not being the same age as the rest of our guys isnt itself a reason not to sign Vuc. It's more that the age factor, in conjunction with everything else is the problem. He did not show he is still improving by having a big year in a contract year on a team that really needed him. He has has average between 13-20 point ever year since his rookie one, but there no real trend line to indicate last year wasn't an aberration. You aren't paying for a guaranteed 20ppg. And if you aren't competing during the first two years of the contract, and the last two years prevent you from acquiring a superior player then it's probably a bad idea.

He clearly improved last year, I am not sure that is debatable. He increased his shooting percentages the last three years:

FG%
2017: 46.8%
2018: 47.5%
2019: 51.8%

2 point %
2017: 48.1%
2018: 52.7%
2019: 54.9%

3 point %
2017: 30.7%
2018: 31.4%
2019: 36.4%

TS%
2017: 49.8%
2018: 53.3%
2019: 57.3%

So he shot better each of the last three years. All while shooting more and more each year:

FGA
2017: 13.7
2018: 14.7
2019: 16.9

This has increased his per minute scoring every year:

Per36 PPG
2017: 18.2
2018: 20.1
2019: 23.9

And his passing has gotten better:

Per36 APG
2017: 3.5
2018: 4.1
2019: 4.4

Assist %
2017: 16.9%
2018: 19.9%
2019: 21.9%

That's all steady growth for 2 straight years with other stats showing similar growth during that time. And his advanced defensive numbers took a big jump forward last year

I am sorry but I just don't see how someone can say he didn't improve not only last year, but the year before. His game could grow once again. It's not uncommon for big men to continue to develop even in their low 30's. It takes longer for those guys.

[Pvictor11]

People really need to stop with the whole "not on our timeline" stuff. Teams need veterans and great players can be found at any age and added to a team long term. Vucevic is just 28 and our young core is

Brown 22
Tatum 21
Rozier 25
Smart 25
Hayward 29.

Vucevic showed at 28 years old he is still improving. His years here would be in his prime from 29 to 32. He would be a great addition. He doesn't have to be 23 years old to be a key component of this young team.

I will grant you that not being the same age as the rest of our guys isnt itself a reason not to sign Vuc. It's more that the age factor, in conjunction with everything else is the problem. He did not show he is still improving by having a big year in a contract year on a team that really needed him. He has has average between 13-20 point ever year since his rookie one, but there no real trend line to indicate last year wasn't an aberration. You aren't paying for a guaranteed 20ppg. And if you aren't competing during the first two years of the contract, and the last two years prevent you from acquiring a superior player then it's probably a bad idea.

He clearly improved last year, I am not sure that is debatable. He increased his shooting percentages the last three years:

FG%
2017: 46.8%
2018: 47.5%
2019: 51.8%

2 point %
2017: 48.1%
2018: 52.7%
2019: 54.9%

3 point %
2017: 30.7%
2018: 31.4%
2019: 36.4%

TS%
2017: 49.8%
2018: 53.3%
2019: 57.3%

So he shot better each of the last three years. All while shooting more and more each year:

FGA
2017: 13.7
2018: 14.7
2019: 16.9

This has increased his per minute scoring every year:

Per36 PPG
2017: 18.2
2018: 20.1
2019: 23.9

And his passing has gotten better:

Per36 APG
2017: 3.5
2018: 4.1
2019: 4.4

Assist %
2017: 16.9%
2018: 19.9%
2019: 21.9%

That's all steady growth for 2 straight years with other stats showing similar growth during that time. And his advanced defensive numbers took a big jump forward last year

I am sorry but I just don't see how someone can say he didn't improve not only last year, but the year before. His game could grow once again. It's not uncommon for big men to continue to develop even in their low 30's. It takes longer for those guys.

I don't think the main point is that Vucevic is a bad player. He is a very good player.
The question for me is: if he is our highest paid players for the next 4 years, we'll probably not be good enough.
The skill set he posesses is valuable and would be a great fit here. But I think he would need a good number of touches to be productive and right now I would rather give as much touches as possible to Jaylen and Jayson to see what they can do as main options for a whole season.
This is not a center league anymore.
Embiid is a great center, a lot better than Vucevic and couldn't get past Toronto, even with 2 "all stars" by his side.