Romeo Langford(merged threads)

[NKY fan]

Thybulle is better than all of the C’s picks. Not sure what DA was thinking.

And we know this because of 2 months worth of games? Wow pretty smart of you.

this off course is too quick of a take but given Danny's drafting tendencies in the last 6-7 years its a fair assessment lol 

[bopna]

Romeo will be a beast in season 2... excellent vision excellent ball handling excellent penetration excellent finishing
. He will improve his shot and he will be fine

I love the enthusiasm...really.

He is no better than Rozier IMO and will probably have a career as a journeyman...he will be lucky in fact if he ever has a career trajectory as Terry...

Looking at himnow he is closer to being a JR Giddens or even a James Young clone...In other words HE IS A BUST.

[ozgod]

Romeo will be a beast in season 2... excellent vision excellent ball handling excellent penetration excellent finishing
. He will improve his shot and he will be fine

I love the enthusiasm...really.

He is no better than Rozier IMO and will probably have a career as a journeyman...he will be lucky in fact if he ever has a career trajectory as Terry...

Looking at himnow he is closer to being a JR Giddens or even a James Young clone...In other words HE IS A BUST.

Very impressive assessment Bopna considering Langford hasn't even played 

[gouki88]

Romeo will be a beast in season 2... excellent vision excellent ball handling excellent penetration excellent finishing
. He will improve his shot and he will be fine

I love the enthusiasm...really.

He is no better than Rozier IMO and will probably have a career as a journeyman...he will be lucky in fact if he ever has a career trajectory as Terry...

Looking at himnow he is closer to being a JR Giddens or even a James Young clone...In other words HE IS A BUST.

You saying this over and over doesn’t make it true. Is Zion a bust?

[RockinRyA]

Thybulle is better than all of the C’s picks. Not sure what DA was thinking.

And we know this because of 2 months worth of games? Wow pretty smart of you.

this off course is too quick of a take but given Danny's drafting tendencies in the last 6-7 years its a fair assessment lol 

You are basing this on your formula that ranks players that didnt even sniff the nba over guys that made the roster. No thanks!

[nickagneta]

Thybulle is better than all of the C’s picks. Not sure what DA was thinking.

And we know this because of 2 months worth of games? Wow pretty smart of you.

this off course is too quick of a take but given Danny's drafting tendencies in the last 6-7 years its a fair assessment lol 

You are basing this on your formula that ranks players that didnt even sniff the nba over guys that made the roster. No thanks!

Is that the same system that quite objectively determined that you were only a good pick in the 10-40 pick area if you were better than Terry Rozier and if you weren't better than Terry Rozier and picked in that range you were a bust? 

[NKY fan]

Thybulle is better than all of the C’s picks. Not sure what DA was thinking.

And we know this because of 2 months worth of games? Wow pretty smart of you.

this off course is too quick of a take but given Danny's drafting tendencies in the last 6-7 years its a fair assessment lol 

You are basing this on your formula that ranks players that didnt even sniff the nba over guys that made the roster. No thanks!

No there were 12 players that didn’t come to the nba out of 360. Since they don’t have statistics to go off I didn’t include them. I can add them as a point mass at 0 percentile in all rankings but that will not change the graphs I shared materially and how Ainge is performing agains his peers.

[NKY fan]

Thybulle is better than all of the C’s picks. Not sure what DA was thinking.

And we know this because of 2 months worth of games? Wow pretty smart of you.

this off course is too quick of a take but given Danny's drafting tendencies in the last 6-7 years its a fair assessment lol 

You are basing this on your formula that ranks players that didnt even sniff the nba over guys that made the roster. No thanks!

Is that the same system that quite objectively determined that you were only a good pick in the 10-40 pick area if you were better than Terry Rozier and if you weren't better than Terry Rozier and picked in that range you were a bust? 

There is no system but just compiling rankings. I’m open to suggestions of how I can improve it. I have some ideas but that will include a bit of programming and data visualization in R or Python and I don’t have to time to do it.

With that said I was thinking of the following:
Create a moving ranking on every pick - for instance compare a player vs players picked in all five spots after him and 2 before him. That will give me 8 players from each draft. Or 160 over 20 drafts etc...

This might be more representable of how the pick performed vs where are you picking.. of course the perfect width of the before and after said draft pick position can be up for discussion. 
For instance Romeo at 14 can be ranked vs the players picked in the 12-19 range in the last 20 drafts. Off course there is no credible experience period on him yet....

however that can probably be done for Terry Rozier who has 5 years in the nba . His cohort for comparison will be players in the 14-21 range from the last X number of drafts.

These are just ideas but can lead to something useful

[NKY fan]

I also have some ideas of how to improve the WS/48 and MPG statistics to be more meaningful but will share them when I do some work on that

[hwangjini_1]

Thybulle is better than all of the C’s picks. Not sure what DA was thinking.

probably what many nba GMs were thinking on draft night - in college thybulle was a bad shooter from outside.

please, if you would, provide us with your opinions on him that you had on draft night. thanks.

[Somebody]

I also have some ideas of how to improve the WS/48 and MPG statistics to be more meaningful but will share them when I do some work on that

Too box based for my liking. Some sort of advanced plus minus (for a 3-5 year stretch) should be included in the stat adjusting for role and noise that comes with plus minus stats.

[Hoopvortex]

I also have some ideas of how to improve the WS/48 and MPG statistics to be more meaningful but will share them when I do some work on that

I look forward to seeing what you do. I’m very interested to know what you mean by ‘more meaningful’, for instance. That sounds worth hearing about.

[Hoopvortex]

I also have some ideas of how to improve the WS/48 and MPG statistics to be more meaningful but will share them when I do some work on that

Too box based for my liking. Some sort of advanced plus minus (for a 3-5 year stretch) should be included in the stat adjusting for role and noise that comes with plus minus stats.

3-5 years of data would be great, especially for getting a better handle on guys who are playing low-rotation minutes but are getting great real plus/minus scores. What gives with them? Is their coach missing something, or is the stat missing something that the coach isn’t? Beyond that, is the stat also measuring how effective the coaching is, since it’s measuring how effective a player is in the role he’s playing?

I think the risk in that much data is that you’re measuring too much. Players get hurt, They miss time or play hurt, someone else gets hurt so their usage increases and they get more or less efficient, their roles change and they have to guard bigger opponents, they get traded and their minutes change, etc.

Having said all that it would be worth a lot to be able to use an RPM app in which you could specify the time-frame of the data.

I think that ESPN’s RPM is an indispensable stat, despite their mediocre presentation (for a start, you cannot search or sort by player or team).

But it has problems. Box score priors are incorporated, but how? How important are the box data? The more important they are, the more the stat is weighted toward players who put a lot in the box score; but if Ojeleye gets a deflection that leads to a 24-second violation, or a bad shot, or a steal that another Celtic gets credit for, the stat is undervaluing him. Perhaps in my RPM app you could dial in the amount of box score data...

[NKY fan]

I also have some ideas of how to improve the WS/48 and MPG statistics to be more meaningful but will share them when I do some work on that

I look forward to seeing what you do. I’m very interested to know what you mean by ‘more meaningful’, for instance. That sounds worth hearing about.

I meant to measure the quality of a draft choice or how would a player ranks against comparable draft picks.
WS/48 (like you just logged in minutes on a winning team and your draft peers didn’t) and MPG (you play for a bad team and the minutes were not earned by you but given to you unlike your peers) ranking may have a lot of noice.
I was thinking of some sort of Gini coefficient that controls for that noise.... like multiply the percentile ranking of two statistics and see how close A player is to 100%... for instance :
If you rank a 15th pick in the range 13-20 draft picks from the last 20 drafts Giannis and Kawhi will be close to 100% in both MPG and WS/48 hence their Gini will also be close to 100%
Players that get less minutes will be all over the 0-100% spectrum - with the average or I should say median at around 25%

And for the hard core data scientists this is not exactly Gini what I’m describing but more of a index^2

Obviously the top picks 1-5 are not easy to measure as a lot of drafting depends on consensus picks, game theory and strategy (trading down)... having a star at the position that the best available player plays etc..

Once you go past pick 10 statistics/rankings can be used and or justified as a measure as consensus means less ,drafting mistakes are less costly and there are a lot of trade downs and up to the point that at the 2019 draft the commentators couldn’t keep up with all the action.

[Somebody]

I also have some ideas of how to improve the WS/48 and MPG statistics to be more meaningful but will share them when I do some work on that

Too box based for my liking. Some sort of advanced plus minus (for a 3-5 year stretch) should be included in the stat adjusting for role and noise that comes with plus minus stats.

3-5 years of data would be great, especially for getting a better handle on guys who are playing low-rotation minutes but are getting great real plus/minus scores. What gives with them? Is their coach missing something, or is the stat missing something that the coach isn’t? Beyond that, is the stat also measuring how effective the coaching is, since it’s measuring how effective a player is in the role he’s playing?

I think the risk in that much data is that you’re measuring too much. Players get hurt, They miss time or play hurt, someone else gets hurt so their usage increases and they get more or less efficient, their roles change and they have to guard bigger opponents, they get traded and their minutes change, etc.

Having said all that it would be worth a lot to be able to use an RPM app in which you could specify the time-frame of the data.

I think that ESPN’s RPM is an indispensable stat, despite their mediocre presentation (for a start, you cannot search or sort by player or team).

But it has problems. Box score priors are incorporated, but how? How important are the box data? The more important they are, the more the stat is weighted toward players who put a lot in the box score; but if Ojeleye gets a deflection that leads to a 24-second violation, or a bad shot, or a steal that another Celtic gets credit for, the stat is undervaluing him. Perhaps in my RPM app you could dial in the amount of box score data...

That's where the adjustments come in. I explicitly stated that his model should incorporate plus-minus statistics while adjusting for team role, injuries, team/opponent strength, etc. These all give you a better idea of why those plus-minus stats look wonky, eg. Will Barton looks like the second coming of Kobe Bryant in stuff like RAPM, but that's because he's killing it in his limited role on a very good team in the Nuggets, as well as the fact that the Nuggets have no one to replace his two way skillset (their wing rotation really falls apart if Barton is out).

And that was exactly my point about box scores, some players put up huge counting stats but ultimately don't affect the scoreboard in their teams' favour all that much (cough cough Moses Malone).