If KD really has torn his achilles

[jpotter33]

I don't think this affects Kyrie's decision at all, as I don't think Kyrie was ever really seriously considering the Knicks and I don't think Durant was ever considering the Nets at all.  Before the KD injury, from my outsider's view of the tea leaves, I'd put Irving at 75% to Nets, 22% to stay, 2% to Lakers, 1% to Knicks, and I don't think KD's injury changes that at all.  Someone like Kemba Walker though has to be more strongly be considering to stay in Charlotte rather than join KD in NY (if that is where KD ends up).

Not sure how you could say this. This leaves 1 free agent for Kyrie to pair up with (Butler). If he doesn't want to leave Philly or if he wants to go to LA, Kyrie really doesn't have many options left other than signing with a mediocre ball club (Nets) by himself just to run away from Boston. I can't say for certain what the guy is thinking, but at some point you'd have to assume that he's going to step back and look at the stacked Celtics roster, the extra year of contract after multiple knee surgeries, their ability to get AD fairly easily, and say "What am I doing?" Or maybe he just doesn't care, doesn't like the city, or doesn't like Stevens and just walks. Who knows. On paper, though, it looks like he either convinces Butler to join him in Brooklyn to lose in the 2nd round, or stay and win a title next year. With KD out next season, Celtics with him and AD have got to be the favorites...

TP

They'd be lucky to get out of the first round with that roster.

The Raps, Bucks, Pacers, and Celtics will likely all be very good next year. The Sixers could feasibly lose Butler and Harris, but they should be good as well. Which of those teams does Brooklyn beat in the first round?

Kyrie going to Brooklyn would be suicidal. IMO he's not going to attract a top FA on his own, and their current roster is nowhere near talented enough to compete for a title.

Hard for me to believe he wants mediocrity for the rest of his career.

You’d think. But Kyrie is a strange cat, and regardless of what he says I don’t think that the basketball part is necessarily always his first priority in these decisions.

[celticsclay]

I don't think this affects Kyrie's decision at all, as I don't think Kyrie was ever really seriously considering the Knicks and I don't think Durant was ever considering the Nets at all.  Before the KD injury, from my outsider's view of the tea leaves, I'd put Irving at 75% to Nets, 22% to stay, 2% to Lakers, 1% to Knicks, and I don't think KD's injury changes that at all.  Someone like Kemba Walker though has to be more strongly be considering to stay in Charlotte rather than join KD in NY (if that is where KD ends up).

How can you say this with a straight face? Literally everyone that covers the NBA has commented on the ripple effect this has on NBA free agency and often frequently mentioning Irving. For the better part of the year the hottest free agency rumor was those two suiting up together. It got as ridiculous as people filming them together in a ball way at the all star game. Now kd gets injured and will miss all of next year and you think it has no impact at all? Very strange man

[Moranis]

I don't think this affects Kyrie's decision at all, as I don't think Kyrie was ever really seriously considering the Knicks and I don't think Durant was ever considering the Nets at all.  Before the KD injury, from my outsider's view of the tea leaves, I'd put Irving at 75% to Nets, 22% to stay, 2% to Lakers, 1% to Knicks, and I don't think KD's injury changes that at all.  Someone like Kemba Walker though has to be more strongly be considering to stay in Charlotte rather than join KD in NY (if that is where KD ends up).

Not sure how you could say this. This leaves 1 free agent for Kyrie to pair up with (Butler). If he doesn't want to leave Philly or if he wants to go to LA, Kyrie really doesn't have many options left other than signing with a mediocre ball club (Nets) by himself just to run away from Boston. I can't say for certain what the guy is thinking, but at some point you'd have to assume that he's going to step back and look at the stacked Celtics roster, the extra year of contract after multiple knee surgeries, their ability to get AD fairly easily, and say "What am I doing?" Or maybe he just doesn't care, doesn't like the city, or doesn't like Stevens and just walks. Who knows. On paper, though, it looks like he either convinces Butler to join him in Brooklyn to lose in the 2nd round, or stay and win a title next year. With KD out next season, Celtics with him and AD have got to be the favorites...

TP

They'd be lucky to get out of the first round with that roster.

The Raps, Bucks, Pacers, and Celtics will likely all be very good next year. The Sixers could feasibly lose Butler and Harris, but they should be good as well. Which of those teams does Brooklyn beat in the first round?

Kyrie going to Brooklyn would be suicidal. IMO he's not going to attract a top FA on his own, and their current roster is nowhere near talented enough to compete for a title.

Hard for me to believe he wants mediocrity for the rest of his career.

The Celtics without Irving are not going to be better than the Nets with Irving unless Davis is still acquired.  The Raptors could easily lose Leonard which puts them worse than the Nets with Irving.  The Nets with Irving are better than the Pacers.  If Butler and Harris leave Philly they aren't better either.  Even the Bucks have a lot of free agency uncertainty though I would expect them to be mostly back and a monster (though a monster that is an ill timed Giannis injury away from being crap). 

The East has so much uncertainty that Irving simply joining the 42 win Nets might realistically put them in play for at least the ECF. 

[timpiker]

The first thing I thought of after the KD injury is that players will more likely quit doing 1 and 1 contracts and do more long term deals.

[celticinorlando]

I would take thew 31 million player option, stay in GS and rehab for a year. If someone signs him to a 5 year deal for the max they are nuts. Players that have this injury at his age do not return to their previous form.

[celticsclay]

If somebody offers him a 4-year max contract, I suspect he’d take it. I also think multiple teams will make that gamble.

Yeah, this is where I'm at with it. I think New York is desperate enough to maybe still offer him a 4 year

If it is an Achilles, I doubt any team will offer him a 4 year Max (over 170M) without any protections based on his playing time and performance.  At a minimum that 4th year would be a team option.  The Knicks can go after other FAs and can try to trade for AD.   

Yes a lot of people seem to think this is a full year missed and then a full year of playing not as good. He would be 33 at that point and you are paying max for very old seasons. I think the only team that might give him full max is golden state

[Moranis]

I don't think this affects Kyrie's decision at all, as I don't think Kyrie was ever really seriously considering the Knicks and I don't think Durant was ever considering the Nets at all.  Before the KD injury, from my outsider's view of the tea leaves, I'd put Irving at 75% to Nets, 22% to stay, 2% to Lakers, 1% to Knicks, and I don't think KD's injury changes that at all.  Someone like Kemba Walker though has to be more strongly be considering to stay in Charlotte rather than join KD in NY (if that is where KD ends up).

How can you say this with a straight face? Literally everyone that covers the NBA has commented on the ripple effect this has on NBA free agency and often frequently mentioning Irving. For the better part of the year the hottest free agency rumor was those two suiting up together. It got as ridiculous as people filming them together in a ball way at the all star game. Now kd gets injured and will miss all of next year and you think it has no impact at all? Very strange man

The last month the Irving to Nets stories have been all over the place.  There is so much smoke and fire with Irving going to Brooklyn that it is hard to deny.  Do you know what hasn't been all over the place the last month, Durant going to the Nets because quite simply Durant isn't going to the Nets and never was going to? 

Durant's injury absolutely affects free agency and creates a huge domino effect, I just don't think it affects Irving's decision all that much because Irving is either going to Brooklyn or staying in Boston and neither of those places was going to land Durant.

[jambr380]

The new hot rumor seems to be that BKN will use Russell in a S&T for AD, but this seems to be far from a given. First, Russell would have to agree to go to NOP - and with so many teams having cap space, it seems he may have other suitors and he could choose his destination. And, of course, if the Nets matched, he isn't going anywhere.

And, second, this also assumes that the Pelicans would prefer Russell to Tatum, which seems far from a certainty.

I don't see it as 'impossible', but it falls right in line with all of the other Terry Rozier S&Ts we see here. They just don't occur very often.

[jambr380]

If somebody offers him a 4-year max contract, I suspect he’d take it. I also think multiple teams will make that gamble.

Yeah, this is where I'm at with it. I think New York is desperate enough to maybe still offer him a 4 year

If it is an Achilles, I doubt any team will offer him a 4 year Max (over 170M) without any protections based on his playing time and performance.  At a minimum that 4th year would be a team option.  The Knicks can go after other FAs and can try to trade for AD.   

Yes a lot of people seem to think this is a full year missed and then a full year of playing not as good. He would be 33 at that point and you are paying max for very old seasons. I think the only team that might give him full max is golden state

Why in the world would GSW give him the full max, though? They are already a great team and have the pieces in place to contend for several years to come. If they give KD a 5 year max for $221M, that would be taking a humongous risk and tie up so much money for a player who may never return to his former glory. They would basically be doing it to be nice.

The smart thing to do would be to cut bait with Durant, let him sign in NYK, and thank their lucky stars they were able to win several championships with Durant in his prime. The return on the investment so far has been killer; the same can't be said if they decide to sign him to a max contract.

[celticsclay]

I don't think this affects Kyrie's decision at all, as I don't think Kyrie was ever really seriously considering the Knicks and I don't think Durant was ever considering the Nets at all.  Before the KD injury, from my outsider's view of the tea leaves, I'd put Irving at 75% to Nets, 22% to stay, 2% to Lakers, 1% to Knicks, and I don't think KD's injury changes that at all.  Someone like Kemba Walker though has to be more strongly be considering to stay in Charlotte rather than join KD in NY (if that is where KD ends up).

How can you say this with a straight face? Literally everyone that covers the NBA has commented on the ripple effect this has on NBA free agency and often frequently mentioning Irving. For the better part of the year the hottest free agency rumor was those two suiting up together. It got as ridiculous as people filming them together in a ball way at the all star game. Now kd gets injured and will miss all of next year and you think it has no impact at all? Very strange man

The last month the Irving to Nets stories have been all over the place.  There is so much smoke and fire with Irving going to Brooklyn that it is hard to deny.  Do you know what hasn't been all over the place the last month, Durant going to the Nets because quite simply Durant isn't going to the Nets and never was going to? 

Durant's injury absolutely affects free agency and creates a huge domino effect, I just don't think it affects Irving's decision all that much because Irving is either going to Brooklyn or staying in Boston and neither of those places was going to land Durant.

There hasn’t really been any chatter about where Durant is going because his team has been on a playoff run and the charter has been about whether he would play. The chatter on Irving obviously picked up a ton after our season ended. Would expect the same for Durant. Strange to think that means Durant was not considering Brooklyn or was considering somewhere else. I would also have to go back and listen to some of the free agency podcast I have listed to (been listening to windhkrst, Simmons, Lowe’s, jac mac etc) but I seem to recall some of them did actually discuss Durant to Brooklyn.

[Fafnir]

The new hot rumor seems to be that BKN will use Russell in a S&T for AD, but this seems to be far from a given. First, Russell would have to agree to go to NOP - and with so many teams having cap space, it seems he may have other suitors and he could choose his destination. And, of course, if the Nets matched, he isn't going anywhere.

And, second, this also assumes that the Pelicans would prefer Russell to Tatum, which seems far from a certainty.

I don't see it as 'impossible', but it falls right in line with all of the other Terry Rozier S&Ts we see here. They just don't occur very often.

I'm sure BKN is trying very hard to make that happen, just depends on if Russell wants to play with Zion for NOP I guess. He will have max offer sheets to sign.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I still think you see GS offer him the full five year max, and I think it’s become likelier now that he seriously considers it.

Like I said, the Warriors should be doing this from the get go.

With the sacrifices that Kevin Durant took to join this team and win them two championships, whether it's him taking an image hit, to the amount of money he didn't take as a discount, to now literally putting his body on the line, this is one of, if not the only way for the Dubs to make up for all that.

[jambr380]

I still think you see GS offer him the full five year max, and I think it’s become likelier now that he seriously considers it.

Like I said, the Warriors should be doing this from the get go.

With the sacrifices that Kevin Durant took to join this team and win them two championships, whether it's him taking an image hit, to the amount of money he didn't take as a discount, to now literally putting his body on the line, this is one of, if not the only way for the Dubs to make up for all that.

Good front offices don't pay you for what you have done, but for what you will do in the future. GSW giving Durant $221M as a goodwill gesture just doesn't make any sense. Now if they are absolutely confident he will get back to pre-injury Durant, then sure, but that is far from a given.

[celticsclay]

Silly efforts to build up some meh young players like Levert, Harris and Allen aside, I don't really see why Kyrie would go to Brooklyn unless some other star is joining him. Maybe that star was supposed to be Durant. Also do people realize Levert turns 25 this summer and has had two serious leg injuries already? He certainly could develop and looked good before his last one, but I can't think that he is a particularly appealing player for a free agent that wants to compete.

[celticsclay]

I still think you see GS offer him the full five year max, and I think it’s become likelier now that he seriously considers it.

Like I said, the Warriors should be doing this from the get go.

With the sacrifices that Kevin Durant took to join this team and win them two championships, whether it's him taking an image hit, to the amount of money he didn't take as a discount, to now literally putting his body on the line, this is one of, if not the only way for the Dubs to make up for all that.

Good front offices don't pay you for what you have done, but for what you will do in the future. GSW giving Durant $221M as a goodwill gesture just doesn't make any sense. Now if they are absolutely confident he will get back to pre-injury Durant, then sure, but that is far from a given.

It can get a bit more complicated than that. He may improve their marketability for sponsors. A move like this could help their reputation with players and agents around th eleague and help them get players down the road. I am not saying they should sign him for these reasons if he is going to be absolutely horrible, but if they are overpaying him by 10 or 20 million over 4 years there are some ways to make up that money potential in indirect benefits.