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Should the C's keep or trade the #17 pick?

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Author Topic: Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (32-33, 17th pick - Season Suspended)  (Read 41520 times)

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Offline MichiganAdam

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I think 12-14 is where the pick ends up.

Would be nice to see a bit of a miracle and see the pick hit in the lottery and have the pick convey next season. Of course, I am not expecting it but I would love for it to happen.

We haven't learned our lesson yet?  They get another lottery pick and next year our "unprotected" pick falls in the 20's.  Take the pick ASAP.

Offline nickagneta

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I think 12-14 is where the pick ends up.

Would be nice to see a bit of a miracle and see the pick hit in the lottery and have the pick convey next season. Of course, I am not expecting it but I would love for it to happen.

We haven't learned our lesson yet?  They get another lottery pick and next year our "unprotected" pick falls in the 20's.  Take the pick ASAP.
Next year's Memphis pick would once again be in the lottery or just out, like 15th or 16th. A pick in the 12-16 range next year will be much better than a pick at say 12 this year. There's that much of a difference in talent between the two years. Also, punting the pick down the road a year will help in attempting to stay under the luxury tax level. Even a couple to three million dollars will help.

Offline bdm860

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I think 12-14 is where the pick ends up.

Would be nice to see a bit of a miracle and see the pick hit in the lottery and have the pick convey next season. Of course, I am not expecting it but I would love for it to happen.

We haven't learned our lesson yet?  They get another lottery pick and next year our "unprotected" pick falls in the 20's.  Take the pick ASAP.

Teams don't only trend in one direction.

Everyone thought the Kings had taken a leap after last year, only to fall backwards this year.

Everyone thought the TWolves would only be getting better with Towns (even after losing Butler), and now they're bottom 3.

Seems like every year the Suns and Booker are supposed to take a leap, still waiting on that one.

I think it's more likely Portland/Golden State/New Orleans all leapfrog the Grizz next year, with only OKC potentially dropping.  I'm happy rolling the dice on the pick again next year.  And not that you want to wish for injuries, but you never know when a key player can go down, derailing a franchise.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Offline Sophomore

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Anyone else thinking Memphis could kind of drop like a rock with Jackson out? They were not competitive at all last night. I think they will at best win one of their next three against Houston, Sac and Lakers.

I thought Memphis would drop like a rock even with Jackson, so for certain I think they will with him out.  Their schedule is a beast, they traded away solid vets in their rotation, and they’ll probably start sitting Morant to preserve him for the future if they fall out of the running by the end of March.  I thought they’d go 5-23 post-break.

If this happens where are you projecting the pick?

Between 9-11.  They’d fall behind at least four of POR, NO, SA, SAC, and PHX in the West, probably all 5.  Outside chance Washington catches up too.

Dream on, SL. They aren't dropping down that far!! Someone spiked your green Koolaid!
Perhaps, but 14 of their last 25 are against teams with winning records, which is significant when you consider that only 13 of 30 NBA teams have a winning record. Combined with injuries, that's probably not enough to get us to 9th, but it might get it to 11th or 12th.

14 of NOP's last 15 games are against teams with a losing record. They only have 6 more games against winning teams. Given how Zion is playing, I'd be shocked if NOP doesn't overtake them. Portland only has 9 such games.

Before the break, they finished 22-10. The schedule wasn’t all that hard, but they did have wins against the Heat, Nuggets, Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Mavericks, Blazers in that stretch. Based on that, and two of their games that I watched, they seemed to be a team that plays hard, plays the right way, and has a good mix of young talent and vets.

Losing JJJ to injury and the vets they traded is going to sting; I can’t say how much. 5-23 seems pretty pessimistic, especially because they have some games against tanking teams. It doesn’t seem like a team that is just going to go belly up.

Does seem likely that one of the teams that’s only 3 or 4 back could catch them, given the schedule disparity. Of course those other teams could have their own health issues

I feel bad for the Grizz, tho also good for us.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 08:41:09 PM by Sophomore »

Offline Sophomore

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More bad news for the Grizz - Brandon Clarke has an injury that will have him out at least a couple weeks.


Offline MichiganAdam

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I think 12-14 is where the pick ends up.

Would be nice to see a bit of a miracle and see the pick hit in the lottery and have the pick convey next season. Of course, I am not expecting it but I would love for it to happen.

We haven't learned our lesson yet?  They get another lottery pick and next year our "unprotected" pick falls in the 20's.  Take the pick ASAP.
Next year's Memphis pick would once again be in the lottery or just out, like 15th or 16th. A pick in the 12-16 range next year will be much better than a pick at say 12 this year. There's that much of a difference in talent between the two years. Also, punting the pick down the road a year will help in attempting to stay under the luxury tax level. Even a couple to three million dollars will help.


We have been saying that every year.  We get slapped in the face every year.  Talent wins, as long as fit is reasonably decent.  Even last years C's team won with bad culture/fit.  I am firmly in the belief we want the pick, and we want to "consolidate" talent by trading young players and picks to add another Key player, either a dead eye shooter or Big, if not one player who can do both.  Waiting on a gamble with low chance of occurring is simply a poor gamble.

Offline RockinRyA

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I think 12-14 is where the pick ends up.

Would be nice to see a bit of a miracle and see the pick hit in the lottery and have the pick convey next season. Of course, I am not expecting it but I would love for it to happen.

We haven't learned our lesson yet?  They get another lottery pick and next year our "unprotected" pick falls in the 20's.  Take the pick ASAP.
Next year's Memphis pick would once again be in the lottery or just out, like 15th or 16th. A pick in the 12-16 range next year will be much better than a pick at say 12 this year. There's that much of a difference in talent between the two years. Also, punting the pick down the road a year will help in attempting to stay under the luxury tax level. Even a couple to three million dollars will help.


We have been saying that every year.  We get slapped in the face every year.  Talent wins, as long as fit is reasonably decent.  Even last years C's team won with bad culture/fit.  I am firmly in the belief we want the pick, and we want to "consolidate" talent by trading young players and picks to add another Key player, either a dead eye shooter or Big, if not one player who can do both.  Waiting on a gamble with low chance of occurring is simply a poor gamble.

Its not a gamble. The Celtics aren't putting anything on the line by wishing for a better outcome. A gamble that has no cost is not really a gamble.

Also luxury tax and roster spots - these are two things that average fans tend to ignore when deciding on roster moves. There's a reason Ainge and other GMs has traded current picks for future picks in the past even if the current picks are higher.

Offline MichiganAdam

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The cost is a year of less talent, and a strong possibility, I would say likely outcome, of the pick being worse.  If the league thinks these 1st round picks years away or heavily protected for currently poor teams are so valuable then we should trade them as soon as we get them for a king's ransome.  I am of a personal belief that heavy protections on picks diminish their value TREMENDOUSLY, especially when these teams have plenty of incentive to do what it takes to make the pick not convey in the short term.  Going forward I would much rather give up future draft capital with protections as additional compensation to make the picks I am getting back unprotected.  As an example, I am negotiating a trade of player X to team Y for a 1st round pick in the next draft.  Team Y will only do if top 10 protected.  I add a 1st back to them in a draft 2 or 3 years away with top 10 protections in exchange for the protections on the pick I'm getting to be dropped.  Get the pick as unprotected as possible.  It is worth ALOT more.  I don't mind top 2-3 protected as much, as it is hard to guarantee your team is that bad to get a top 3 pick with all of the competition as to who can tank the worse.

Offline Sophomore

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Man. If the Pellies sneak into the 8 seed, that’s a pretty competitive 1-8 matchup for the Lakers to have to deal with. And we get to see LBJ vs Zion!
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 10:42:54 AM by Sophomore »

Offline RockinRyA

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The cost is a year of less talent, and a strong possibility, I would say likely outcome, of the pick being worse.  If the league thinks these 1st round picks years away or heavily protected for currently poor teams are so valuable then we should trade them as soon as we get them for a king's ransome.  I am of a personal belief that heavy protections on picks diminish their value TREMENDOUSLY, especially when these teams have plenty of incentive to do what it takes to make the pick not convey in the short term.  Going forward I would much rather give up future draft capital with protections as additional compensation to make the picks I am getting back unprotected.  As an example, I am negotiating a trade of player X to team Y for a 1st round pick in the next draft.  Team Y will only do if top 10 protected.  I add a 1st back to them in a draft 2 or 3 years away with top 10 protections in exchange for the protections on the pick I'm getting to be dropped.  Get the pick as unprotected as possible.  It is worth ALOT more.  I don't mind top 2-3 protected as much, as it is hard to guarantee your team is that bad to get a top 3 pick with all of the competition as to who can tank the worse.

1 year of less talent? Whoever you draft at that spot most likely isn't going to play a lot. Lots of DNPs and Maine appearances. After next year we have more expirings and we also know a lot more about our current rookies so we will have more roster flexibility and the ability to carry rookies in the lineup. Ainge has said we are carrying too much young guys. One reason why we cannot add any buyout player is because of roster spots and guaranteed money. This is why second round draft picks, esp early ones are valuable.  Roster flexibility is very very important. This year's draft class is also inferior to the next one. Remember, no more one and dones after next year. You dont want to be paying more money to a higher draftee whos worse than a lower one the next year.

Offline MichiganAdam

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All you have to do is look at the past.  Many many times teams value these "potential top three" picks and they rarely are.  The teams that give up those picks are no longer looking to tank, and others teams are looking to tank to get the high pick(Golden state for instance) because they own it, and the pick ends up not top 3.  Teams have to be historically bad to end up top 3 despite not tanking in the current NBA, or get unlikely with the injury bug.  Add to that that the lottery now being even more generous to those teams not in the top 4 and we have a bad bet to gamble on the future pick being better than the current pick.  We also have a tight window to add to the core to bump them into the Bucks level of contender...the favorite.  Add a 6th core player to our top 5 now and we would be favorites every year.  I'm even for trading one of the core 5 with young players and/or draft capital to exchange a Jaylen brown or Marcus smart for a anthony davis type All NBA type.  Who is that player...Durant, Jokic, KP, I don't know...someone. 

Offline RockinRyA

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Quote
All you have to do is look at the past.  Many many times teams value these "potential top three" picks and they rarely are.  The teams that give up those picks are no longer looking to tank, and others teams are looking to tank to get the high pick(Golden state for instance) because they own it, and the pick ends up not top 3. 

Eh, that is clearly not what I meant at all. I meant that teams are willing to trade a HIGHER (not high, but high as in relatively) current pick for future picks. Example 2020 15th pick for 2022 18th pick. Why do teams do this? Like I said, 1) roster spots 2) strength of the draft. Its the reason in the first place why we got this Memphis pick. We had full roster spots so he looked to stash players and traded Deyonta Davis for future picks.

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Teams have to be historically bad to end up top 3 despite not tanking in the current NBA, or get unlikely with the injury bug. Add to that that the lottery now being even more generous to those teams not in the top 4 and we have a bad bet to gamble on the future pick being better than the current pick.
Its very reasonable to think the future pick might be better than next. 1) Next year's draft is weaker 2) The draft after that will have high schoolers available. Bigger pool to choose from. Like nick said, an 16th pick from 2021 beats the 12th pick probably, due to this. I dunno how you are completely ignoring this.

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We also have a tight window to add to the core to bump them into the Bucks level of contender...the favorite.  Add a 6th core player to our top 5 now and we would be favorites every year.

Good luck with that. You won't get a gamechanger from the 14th pick in a weak draft, especially at year 1 and 2. History will tell you that.

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I'm even for trading one of the core 5 with young players and/or draft capital to exchange a Jaylen brown or Marcus smart for a anthony davis type All NBA type.  Who is that player...Durant, Jokic, KP, I don't know...someone.

No way that is happening unless there is a disgruntled superstar or an injury risk. And in this case, a draft pick is a better trading chip than a rookie.


Offline MichiganAdam

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Quote

    We also have a tight window to add to the core to bump them into the Bucks level of contender...the favorite.  Add a 6th core player to our top 5 now and we would be favorites every year.


Good luck with that. You won't get a gamechanger from the 14th pick in a weak draft, especially at year 1 and 2. History will tell you that.

I never said just for the 14th pick.  We have more capital, it is easier to move up.  Package picks/young players and move up a few spots.  Maybe 8th-10, depending on if a player is added. 

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    I'm even for trading one of the core 5 with young players and/or draft capital to exchange a Jaylen brown or Marcus smart for a anthony davis type All NBA type.  Who is that player...Durant, Jokic, KP, I don't know...someone.


No way that is happening unless there is a disgruntled superstar or an injury risk. And in this case, a draft pick is a better trading chip than a rookie.

Again, if we are using a core 5 player it is packaging it with picks and/or young players.  This is a blockbuster type trade and yes it does happen.  The lakers got AD for a trade like this.  It does happen.  Yes he wanted out, but many others just need the team to decide it is time to reboot before they lose their star for nothing.  Maybe Toronto learns that Siakam will not be reupping.  Who knows.

Offline No Nickname

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All these teams have a great opportunity to gain a game on Memphis tonight as they play the dregs of the league (except Sacto of course).

28-30 Memphis (vs Sacramento)
26-31 Brooklyn (@ Atlanta)
26-32 Orlando (vs Minnesota)
24-34 Sacramento (@ Memphis)
25-33 New Orleans (vs Cleveland)
24-35 Phoenix (vs Detroit)

If things go right you could have four of those teams within two games of Memphis in the loss column after tonight.  And Phoenix only four back.

I think Brooklyn is going to continue to play hard just to show Kyrie that they don't necessarily need him in order to be good.



Offline footey

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All these teams have a great opportunity to gain a game on Memphis tonight as they play the dregs of the league (except Sacto of course).

28-30 Memphis (vs Sacramento)
26-31 Brooklyn (@ Atlanta)
26-32 Orlando (vs Minnesota)
24-34 Sacramento (@ Memphis)
25-33 New Orleans (vs Cleveland)
24-35 Phoenix (vs Detroit)

If things go right you could have four of those teams within two games of Memphis in the loss column after tonight.  And Phoenix only four back.

I think Brooklyn is going to continue to play hard just to show Kyrie that they don't necessarily need him in order to be good.

Sacto win would be huge.