How much will Marcus Smart get in new contract?

[fairweatherfan]

The 65th best player in the league?  $20 million+ a year for sure 


Honestly the market's been hard to predict, especially for RFAs. Teams have been extremely reluctant to tie up their cap space signing guys to offer sheets and cap space will be limited, reducing bidding wars.  In our case though they may realize Danny is going to be reluctant to match a big dollar deal and take a shot. Maybe $12-15 mill per, possibly higher for a short year deal.

[action781]

I think you guys so far are hugely underestimating what Smart will get from somewhere.

Marcus is averaging 30 min per game and his per36 averages are 12.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists.  He's an elite defender and can play 3 positions.  He was the #6 overall pick of his draft.  He is thought of pretty highly around the league based on the ESPN Top 100 rankings.  Let's look at the free agents this offseason who were most similar to Marcus.

Otto Porter Jr just got 4 years, $104. 
Andre Roberson just got 3 years, $30. 
James Johnson got 4 years, $60. 
Olynyk got 4 years, $50.
Dion Waiters got 4 years, $52.
Tim Hardaway Jr got 4 years, $72.
Tony Snell got 4 years, $46.
KCP got 1 year, $18.
Patty Mills got 4 years, $50.
Jeff Teague and George Hill each got 3 years, $57.
Jrue Holiday got 5 years, $125.

Everybody's opinions vary, but I'd say out of Marcus + those 12 guys, that Marcus probably ranks somewhere around 4th-5th.

I'd expect him to get signed to a RFA offer sheet somewhere around 4 years, $70 mil (+/- $10 mil) if we do not reach an agreement with him.

I think this is a mistake a lot of people seem to be making.  All those deals signed under 2016 and 2017 can't be repeated.  Players aren't going to get those contracts again.  Those dollars are gone.  Teams don't have cap room anymore, especially not for non-superstar players.  Here's an article from ESPN talking about it.

Summer of 2016: 27 teams were under the cap, 60 players signed with cap space.
Summer of 2017: 14 teams were under the cap, 22 players signed with cap space.
Summer of 2018: 9 teams will be under the cap per ESPN, (though other sources predict even less, Real GM says only 5 for example).

"Nuclear winter," or summer, is probably a bit apocalyptic. Nevertheless, the consensus among several team executives was that the market correction would continue into next offseason. In particular, they projected the market to be tighter for the NBA's middle class in a star-studded free-agency crop.

"Free agents will get squeezed," a general manager said.

"What I see all the time is players not understanding why, 'This player got this, but I get that?' They want it to make sense and it just doesn't make sense. I think you'll see a lot of agents get fired.

"The top guys will always feed first and then the year of the cap spike, there was a lot left for everybody else to feed. Next year, the top players will still get theirs, and then there will be not much left."

Some agents, projecting plenty of frustrated clients in the near future, are second-guessing the union for creating this situation by not working with the NBA on cap smoothing.

"It forced teams to spend all their money and gave free agents false hope of what's to come," one agent said.

"If you weren't a free agent last summer, those deals aren't ever going to come again. ... They f---ed everybody. They f---ed the teams and f---ed the players."

I don't know who Kevin P Smith is who wrote that realgm article, but his assumption of 5 is based on teams resigning their RFAs.  Sure, that's very possible, but if that happens it also takes a lot of free agents off the market which pushes Marcus closer to the top of available players.  The projections have Cleveland, OKC, Houston, Detroit, Milwaukee and Utah way over the cap which means he must project Lebron, PG13, CP3, Bradley, Jabari, Favors and Hood all resigning there.  So based on those projections, Marcus is going to be competing against guys like Brook Lopez, KCP, D-Wade, JJ Redick, and Greg Monroe for the remaining projected cap space.  So it may be true that spending is reigned in this offseason, but regarding Marcus specifically, he might be the best available free agent left in the class for those 5 teams to bid on if all those RFAs do stay put like that author projects.

Also in that realgm article, he projects for Boston to be $26.5 million over the cap, when our current contracts only have us at $5.4 million over.  Where is that $21.1 million gap coming from?  Likely mostly to Marcus since we don't have any other quality bird rights free agents this offseason and I can't imagine he'd put the LAL draft pick salary in there since its more unlikely than likely to convey.

[Celtics4ever]

Let the wild overestimations begin!

Some past estimations:
Sullinger 10 million a year
KO 20 Million a year


If he can shoot this year 15 million, if he can't 9 million.  He is going to have a chance to produce and help himself.   He did lose some weight but I think it will depend on his shooting ability.