The next Celtics Super Star......."Marcus Smart"

[saltlover]

Who is Adam Miller?

Someone who looked up Smart's projection on 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/marcus-smart/p

Hey, saltlover, you may want to remove the "p" from the end of that link - it throws up a 404 error when it's included

Don't know how that p got there, but fixed.

Still broken, you forgot to remove it from the actual link   

Although I think by now there are more than enough CARMELO links to go around

Well, I hope it's working this time all the same.

[kmart12]

The issue with Smart's CARMELO projection, which has not been emphasized enough, is the variance.

That's captured by the gray shaded "confidence interval" region on the projection.

Take a look at Smart's - it's huge:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/marcus-smart/

Smart's confidence interval goes from 0 to 10 WAR. For those counting at home, that's the difference between Nik Stauskas and Kevin Durant.

Now, if you take other players of similar vintage, their ranges are smaller and in many cases much, much smaller

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/dante-exum/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/kelly-olynyk/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jabari-parker/

There are even much more recent draftees with less uncertainty according to these projections:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/brandon-ingram/

Why the difference? I'm not sure, but I would guess that the most of the range for Smart is a function of possible variation in his future offensive capabilities, and in particular whether he becomes a plus 3 pt shooter or remains atrocious.

tl;dr: This tells us nothing we don't know from about 300 different "Will Marcus improve his shooting?" threads.

TP - wonderfully broken down.

[Ed Hollison]

NBA statistics nerds really love Marcus. I think it's because even though he doesn't look good sometimes to the naked eye, there's a lot of statistical evidence that he makes the team better when he's on the floor, including on offense. Note that this is the opposite of Bradley (whom I nonetheless loved).

If you can wrap up Smart going forward at $12-15 per year, you do it. Honestly, my only concern about him is that he's getting heavier over time, and I'm worried this trend might continue. Otherwise: these are the players you need if you want to win championships.

[Boris Badenov]

A lot of people the past couple years have compared him to Dennis Johnson, and if he pretty much just stays at his current level for a decade, that looks like a really good comp.

DJ was a very, very good offensive player though. He made four straight AS games by age 27, was both All-NBA 1st and All-Defense 1st in the same year, and had two straight top-10 MVP finishes.

If Smart stays at this current level there is no way he will do that.

[tankcity!]

The Celtics will need Marcus to step up his game this season if we want to beat Cleveland. He is a very dangerous player if he can make open 3's and he would live up to these projections from Nate Silver. Fingers crossed he finally can shoot this season.

[ETNCeltics]

Unless Marcus steps up big time this season, or something else dramatic happens (like trading multiple players), then this is likely his last year in Boston. Resigning IT and the luxury tax will make it almost impossible to keep him.

[footey]

If Marcus could improve his 3 point shooting to mid 30's percentage, he will get a nice contract. His intangibles and defense are off the chart. His play making is improving, above adequate.

That is the big IF.

[saltlover]

A lot of people the past couple years have compared him to Dennis Johnson, and if he pretty much just stays at his current level for a decade, that looks like a really good comp.

DJ was a very, very good offensive player though. He made four straight AS games by age 27, was both All-NBA 1st and All-Defense 1st in the same year, and had two straight top-10 MVP finishes.

If Smart stays at this current level there is no way he will do that.

It's tough to completely compare the two, of course, because there was no 3-point shot when he started his career, and it certainly wasn't a huge part of NBA offenses during most of his career.  That said, he never became a remotely good 3-point shooter, finishing with a career rate of 17%, which would even embarrass Marcus.

If you just compare their 2-point shooting tho, it's not far off.

DJ
Age 23: 2FG% 41.7%, TS% 48.6%, FT 73.2%, Per-36 Pts 16.8, Asts 3.7
Age 24: 2FG% 43.4%, TS% 49.5%, FT 78.1%, Per-36 Pts 16.8, Asts 3.7 (All-Star)

Smart
Age 22: 2FG% 42.0%, TS% 48.6%, FT 81.2%, Per-36 Pts 12.5, Asts 5.5

So we see the following -- DJ was approximately the same offensively at age 23 and age 24, even tho he was an All-Star in the second of those two years.  We also see that Smart is pretty much right with him -- the shooting percentages are comparable, and while DJ made about two more baskets per 36, Smart got about two more assists, so the total offensive contribution and efficiency is comparable.  (And to defend per-36 for a moment -- DJ played 27 and 34 minutes per game the two seasons, and had essentially identical per-36 numbers despite the minutes increase.  Meanwhile, Smart averaged 30 minutes per game, right in between DJs two totals, so per-36 is a great normalizing tool.)

Smart's biggest problem is that he plays in this era, and not the early 80s, and the 3-point shot is now an important part of the repertoire of centers, much less PGs.  But I would argue that offensively, DJ and Smart are very similar.  And defensively, I think it's ridiculous Smart hasn't been named All-Defense.

[Geo123]

Calling Marcus Smart the next Super Star for the Celtics is a HUGE jump up for him that I just don't see.  He's a complimentary piece and that's all. 

[Boris Badenov]

A lot of people the past couple years have compared him to Dennis Johnson, and if he pretty much just stays at his current level for a decade, that looks like a really good comp.

DJ was a very, very good offensive player though. He made four straight AS games by age 27, was both All-NBA 1st and All-Defense 1st in the same year, and had two straight top-10 MVP finishes.

If Smart stays at this current level there is no way he will do that.

It's tough to completely compare the two, of course, because there was no 3-point shot when he started his career, and it certainly wasn't a huge part of NBA offenses during most of his career.  That said, he never became a remotely good 3-point shooter, finishing with a career rate of 17%, which would even embarrass Marcus.

If you just compare their 2-point shooting tho, it's not far off.

DJ
Age 23: 2FG% 41.7%, TS% 48.6%, FT 73.2%, Per-36 Pts 16.8, Asts 3.7
Age 24: 2FG% 43.4%, TS% 49.5%, FT 78.1%, Per-36 Pts 16.8, Asts 3.7 (All-Star)

Smart
Age 22: 2FG% 42.0%, TS% 48.6%, FT 81.2%, Per-36 Pts 12.5, Asts 5.5


Smart's biggest problem is that he plays in this era, and not the early 80s, and the 3-point shot is now an important part of the repertoire of centers, much less PGs. But I would argue that offensively, DJ and Smart are very similar.  And defensively, I think it's ridiculous Smart hasn't been named All-Defense.

Well, yeah, but that is key. Smart's offensive game is atrocious by today's standards while DJ's was quite good by the standards of his time period. And that is, of course, critically important in terms of whether Smart would ever be considered an All-Star or All-NBA player. If his offense doesn't change, he'll struggle to ever start, much be considered a top player.

I mean, Bob Cousy was a career 37.5% shooter - from exclusively 2 point range - and he was an All-Star 13 straight times and finished in the top 10 for MVP voting 8 times. You have to consider the time period when you think about how someone will be viewed.

[Ed Hollison]

Smart's offensive game is atrocious by today's standards

This is where we commonly get it wrong on Smart. He is an atrocious jump shooter, and I would say he's equally atrocious finishing around the rim. But his offensive advanced statistics are good. The team scores more points when he's on the floor, probably because he's a great passer and capable in the pick & roll.

[Boris Badenov]

Smart's offensive game is atrocious by today's standards

This is where we commonly get it wrong on Smart. He is an atrocious jump shooter, and I would say he's equally atrocious finishing around the rim. But his offensive advanced statistics are good. The team scores more points when he's on the floor, probably because he's a great passer and capable in the pick & roll.

I guess I should have said "scoring game." You are somewhat right about the other stuff. He also creates possessions, by not turning the ball over much and by being pesky on defense, which is an indirect but very valuable way of helping the offense score points.

Edit: this was much more true in 2015-16 than last year, when the Celtics were 3 points worse offensively with him on the floor.

And the team had TS% of .510 with him on the court and .548 with him off the court. Pretty big hit.

[kozlodoev]

Smart's offensive game is atrocious by today's standards

This is where we commonly get it wrong on Smart. He is an atrocious jump shooter, and I would say he's equally atrocious finishing around the rim. But his offensive advanced statistics are good. The team scores more points when he's on the floor, probably because he's a great passer and capable in the pick & roll.

Not really. The team is +2.6 with him on, +2.7 with him off.

http://www.82games.com/1617/1617BOS.HTM

[Boris Badenov]

Smart's offensive game is atrocious by today's standards

This is where we commonly get it wrong on Smart. He is an atrocious jump shooter, and I would say he's equally atrocious finishing around the rim. But his offensive advanced statistics are good. The team scores more points when he's on the floor, probably because he's a great passer and capable in the pick & roll.

Not really. The team is +2.6 with him on, +2.7 with him off.

http://www.82games.com/1617/1617BOS.HTM

I think the bkref numbers are more reliable, and they say -3.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01/on-off/2017

Also your numbers are net, not offense only. The team gives up 3 fewer points with him on the court too.

[saltlover]

Smart's offensive game is atrocious by today's standards

This is where we commonly get it wrong on Smart. He is an atrocious jump shooter, and I would say he's equally atrocious finishing around the rim. But his offensive advanced statistics are good. The team scores more points when he's on the floor, probably because he's a great passer and capable in the pick & roll.

I guess I should have said "scoring game." You are somewhat right about the other stuff. He also creates possessions, by not turning the ball over much and by being pesky on defense, which is an indirect but very valuable way of helping the offense score points.

Edit: this was much more true in 2015-16 than last year, when the Celtics were 3 points worse offensively with him on the floor.

And the team had TS% of .510 with him on the court and .548 with him off the court. Pretty big hit.

Yes, although some of that hit is just due to the fact that a lot of those minutes with Smart on the floor were with IT off the floor, and there was going to be a drop no matter who stepped in.