Chad Ford's Tier Rankings based on info from GM's & Scouts

[Forza Juventus]

This shows why there may not be much value in trading for the 9th pick. This draft is 8 deep with the drop off beginning at 9.

Many believe players like Myles Turner and Stanley Johnson will be around 10-12. If that is the case then ya I would trade up using one of our players.

#10 is the magic number I think. In my opinion Johnson and Turner belong in Tier 3.

TOP 10 (in any order - point is one will be available at #10)

Towns
Okafor
Russell
Porzingis
Mudiay
Winslow
Hezonga
WCS
Turner
Johnson

I agree with you. Oubre looks good to though.

I think Oubre may have higher upside than a couple of these guys, but also considerably higher risk. Close call, though.

Just for fun, but this is about how I'd rate these guys in terms of their potential (1 = out of league, 2 = deep bench, 3-5 = rotation player, 6-7 = starter, 8 = All-Star, 9 = 1st team All-Star, 10 = MVP+)

Asterisk means I think a player is more likely to hit that extreme that average. So, I see Towns as a real MVP candidate, and Oubre as relatively high risk to end up as a bench player (but still with All-Star potential).

Towns: 7-10*
Okafor: 6-9
Russell: 6-9
Porzingis: 6-9
Mudiay: 5*-9
Winslow: 5-8
Hezonga: 5-8
WCS: 5-8
Turner: 4-8
Johnson: 5-7
--
Oubre: 4*-8
Booker: 4*-7
Kaminsky: 4-6
Payne: 4-7
RJ Hunter: 3-7
B Portis: 4-6
Trey Lyles: 4-7
Dekker: 4-6

Interesting. I definitely agree with most of that. Maybe I'm crazy but for some reason I just don't see many of these guys spectacularly busting and being out of the league. I feel like a lot of these guys have high floors.

[LooseCannon]

So, there have been 7 guys in tier one since 2009 with three of them being added last year.

But there have been 5 other guys since 2009 who pretty clearly became tier one stars in the league.
Harden.
Curry.
Cousins.
Paul George.
Kyrie.

If we leave out last year and this because we haven't had time to judge those draft classes, the experts were right in predicting greatness for the three guys they loved but they missed the greatness in 5 more guys.


Mike

Tier 1 is for the guys who are perceived as can't miss prospects.  That doesn't mean that the guys in lower tiers can't become stars, just that they have flaws that means they have some bust potential.

[celticsfan8591]

Informative post. Thanks.

Surprised Jordan Mickey not even in tier 6.

Ford is an Idiot. Mickey will be better than some guys from tier 5.

Led sec in double doubles , 2nd in rebounds, 1st in bpg. If it was not for an iron deficiency issue ,he would of ended the year on a stronger note. I hope he keeps getting ranked lower by ppl like ford, eddie20 so that the celts have a chance to grab him with a 2nd round pick.

The info is coming from scouts and GM's. You're killing the messenger.

I read somewhere that Chad Ford just does favors for agents he likes and talks those players up but idk if its tru tho.

I've heard this as well.  Ever since he got caught changing his old rankings I haven't put any stock in what he says.  Even the opinions of honest draft "experts" are pretty speculative; why listen to a shady one?

[Cman]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

Tier 2:
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
 

So keep that in mind when getting overhyped about all the guys in the draft this year aside from towns.  I still like a lot of those guys in last year's tier 2.   If mudiay, pozingus, Okafor and Russell are lumped in with those guys, it means they might take some time but they have potential to be big contributors in a few years.

He had Gary Harris, McDermott and stauskas in tier 3. 



So it looks like all the prospects

looks like tier 4 is where you want to be

Sorry, why?

[Denis998]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

Tier 2:
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
 

So keep that in mind when getting overhyped about all the guys in the draft this year aside from towns.  I still like a lot of those guys in last year's tier 2.   If mudiay, pozingus, Okafor and Russell are lumped in with those guys, it means they might take some time but they have potential to be big contributors in a few years.

He had Gary Harris, McDermott and stauskas in tier 3. 



So it looks like all the prospects

looks like tier 4 is where you want to be

Sorry, why?

Just a reference to that both tier two and three had 1 productive player in them, which is Smart. Tier 4 had a handful of serviceable players. So my quote references that there are more usable players in that range rather than lower tiers.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Few questions about the tier system and boom/bust statistics:

How long have these two systems been used? I am interested to look back at previous tier rankings as well as the boom/bust probabilities to see how accurate they have been. I am assuming they have not been implemented for very long though, so that data may not be available?

[PhoSita]

Ford's a bit of a hack, but I do think the tier system has merit.

His listing confirms my suspicion that this is a pretty shallow draft.  Definitely important for the Celtics to get into the top 8-10, or else trade the picks for a player already in the league.

[Celtics18]

I wonder if Jordan Clarkson was like tier 8 or something and maybe back in the day Isaiah Thomas was tier 12

i didn't see Payton or nurkic in either of his top two tiers last season... And those guys were pretty impressive.

Isn't his tier system based on info he gets from teams?  It's not his personal tiers.  That's how scouts see the tiers right now... There are always busts and surprises every season in spite of that.

Nooo?!!!

[Denis998]

Few questions about the tier system and boom/bust statistics:

How long have these two systems been used? I am interested to look back at previous tier rankings as well as the boom/bust probabilities to see how accurate they have been. I am assuming they have not been implemented for very long though, so that data may not be available?

I think that boom/bust stat just got released by ESPN not too long ago. I think this is the first draft that has the numbers.

[Celtics4ever]

Wonder if he will edit these when he gets them wrong as is usual for him.