Did Rondo's injury ruin Ainge's tank plans?

[LooseCannon]

In the summer of 2012, Danny Ainge was faced with a tough decision: blow up a team that came within a game of another trip to the NBA finals or keep it together for a puncher's shot at another title.

I think Ainge's Plan A was to compete for two years and for 2014-2015 to be a bridge year, with an eye towards clearly cap space and getting a good pick in that draft.  Unlike the 2014 draft, 2015 was projected even then to have some potential franchise centers.  Some even said it was better than 2014.  (More are probably saying that now.)

Look at the contract situation at that point.  Pierce expires in 2014.  Garnett is partly guaranteed for 2014-2015 and was seen as possibly retiring.  Rondo expires in 2015.

Look at the free agency deals.  Ray Allen was offered a two-year deal that would have expired in the summer of 2014.  Bass was re-signed to a contract that expires in 2015.  Jason Terry was brought in on a deal that expires in 2015.  Jeff Green's 2015-2016 player option makes it function like a tradeable expiring contract in the summer of 2015.  Courtney Lee's deal would also be an expiring contract that summer.

The contracts look very much set up to potentially be rid of Garnett/Pierce/Allen after 2014 and to create cap space in 2015.  The length of deals given to the LGBT bloc was probably a function of Ainge seeing the 2015 free agent class as much more desirable than the 2014 free agent class, rather than a stupid overpay bidding against himself.

Ainge left himself for several seasons in a row where he could have expiring contracts to work with: Pierce in 2013,  Garnett's half-guaranteed final year when he might retire and Bass+Terry in 2014, Green+Lee in 2015.  These are the sort of salary slots you need to swing a trade for a big-contract star.

But then Rondo got injured.  With Rondo likely to still be less than 100% during the 2014 playoffs, the Celtics don't even have that long-shot puncher's chance anymore.  If Rondo was going to be back by the start of the season, maybe Ainge finds a way to do a sign-and-trade for Paul Millsap, gets a veteran backup point guard like Beno Udrih, and brings in a solid center to help preserve KG, but the extent of his injury kills that idea.

Maybe Doc Rivers could stomach a quick one-year bridge between windows and would have stayed through a bad 2014-2015 season knowing that he would have the cap space to lure in some great free agents who would want to play for him in 2015, but wasn't willing to sit through two tank-y seasons.  His leaving put a huge dent in the idea of Plan A.  Without Doc, it becomes harder to bring in free agents, so that cap space in 2015 looks less useful. 

And, so we're on Plan B.  Blow up the roster.  Get under the luxury tax.  Stockpile assets.  Wait and see how other teams react to the new CBA.

[slamtheking]

mentioned this concept before the Rondo injury where Danny had set the team up for a 3-year run with those signings with the thought of reloading as the contracts expired for the older players. 

Losing Rondo killed that plan.  If Rondo played last year, not sure how we'd have fared in the playoffs (Jet and Lee were horrible) so I'm not sure if Danny would have looked at the roster coming into this year thinking he needed to change the master plan.

[Boris Badenov]

It's a good question.

I personally also think that Rose's and Horford's injuries may have prolonged our "run it back" strategy. If we'd have gotten bounced in the first round in 2012, how would things have gone differently?

[Cman]

It is an interesting thesis, but I don't think so. I think the offer from Brooklyn was too good to turn down.

[GreenWarrior]

I think it's possible we had a "plan A" that included rondo being moved.

but either way the core of that championship team had exhausted it's run at contention. pierce and KG could maybe have squeezed out a playoff spot this yr. but that's only because of the state of the east.

there was no help coming for this core. even if rondo was healthy enough to trade. we wouldn't have gotten anything in return that would've put us over indy or Miami. ainge blew it up at the right time, the best way we could've hoped. 

anything else would have been a sideways move and delayed the rebuilding process longer. I would have liked to see pierce & KG retire here but we weren't going to be able to get them enough help and i'd rather see them go out contending than limping through the last couple seasons and would have nothing to show for it.

[Donoghus]

I don't know if it "ruined" it per se, but I would say that it certainly altered it. 

If the Celtics make it to the 2nd round or ECF last year with a healthy Rondo, I think things go in a different direction as mentioned in the OP. 

After Rondo's injury & subsequent first round exit, I think Ainge saw more of the writing on the wall and, once the NJ scenario presented itself, Ainge decided to go in a different direction and alter his orginal plan or simply accelerated his original 2015 plan up 2 years.

[Nerf DPOY]

I think to an extent you're right in that Rondo's injury was a factor in ditching the 2-3 year last gasp run. I don't know if I'd say it was the main reason we blew it up though, and I highly doubt the projections on the '15 draft class played much of a part.

After '13's end there was also to consider

1. Some of these guys may not have been quite the supporting cast we had thought they were, notably Lee and Green, and to a lesser extent Bradley

2. Though a year away, the '14 draft class was coming into shape and looking to be strong, especially at the top.

3. Indiana had truly emerged as a powerhouse and another opponent in the East that made reaching the finals again just too much of a fairy tale pipe dream to realistically pursue. Also, Rose was coming back to a solid Bulls team with assets to make themselves one of the elite again (which of course didn't happen).

Personally, I like that Ainge and ownership are willing to do a 180 when they feel it's right.  Ainge traded Walker and brought in different players to build around Pierce. Then brought Walker back, let him go and tried to trade Pierce to rebuild around Chris Paul and Al Jefferson. Then, tried to  tank for Oden or Durant, and finally built around Pierce again. There's little doubt the plan currently in place could change twice before they truly make another significant commitment.

[LarBrd33]

Ainge tried blowing it up well before last summer.  We had already traded Ray for OJ Mayo and it fell apart.  We had tried trading Pierce to the Nets a year earlier.   This was a long-time coming.  IT's amazing he was able to get any sort of value well after KG and Pierce stopped being assets.

[BballTim]

Ainge tried blowing it up well before last summer.  We had already traded Ray for OJ Mayo and it fell apart.  We had tried trading Pierce to the Nets a year earlier.   This was a long-time coming.  IT's amazing he was able to get any sort of value well after KG and Pierce stopped being assets.

  Trading Ray wouldn't really count as blowing things up. Trading Paul may or may not have been depending on the return.

[European NBA fan]

I agree about the basics in the OP. Everything was set up for Pierce and KG retiring as Celtics in 2014 (or 2015). I think it was a mixture of things rather than Rondo's injury alone that ruined the plans.

Rondo's injury might have put a snow ball in motion, though, leading to an early exit and everyone asking if we had enough for one more run.

If Doc and KG had decided to stay, Ainge would probably have had to stick to the original plan.

[timpiker]

I think Danny's had to be very flexible.  Plan A was Chris Paul.  He wouldn't come.  David West not signing hurt a lot.  Then Rondo's injury....  He clearly thought KG and PP would be here this year and next and remain competitive.  Things just didn't work out.  Looking at the FA list the next 2 yes does not look good from an untrained eye like mine.  We need a 2 or 3 like Durant or Pierce or LeBum that can win games at the end and I just do not see anyone.  Maybe Stephenson?  I was hoping for George but he signed.

[Finkelskyhook]

I think Ainge learned the overt tanking lesson in 06-07

[pearljammer10]

I think Rondo's injury hurt our contention plans moreso than our "tank" plans. Rondo's injury doesn't happen, Pierce and KG are both still in Green this year.