AInge says Rondo will miss first 20- 30 games. What's our win record now?

[Celtics18]

I'm thinking the schedule is so brutal in November with 18 games in 30 days that he ain't playing any of them.
If he comes back half way through December or 'eases' his way in from the beginning of December then I think missing 5 games into December is reasonable. Then he misses another 5 to 10 throughout the season due to niggling injuries like his plantar and finger, or his knee just flares up a bit. That's an easy 35 games he sits right there. They add up fast.

We just have such a bad defensive big man line up and such a bad shooting line up I can't see us scoring well and I can't see us defending the paint well. Perimeter D will be nice but that only does so much.

If Rondo sits 35 games and we go 1 of 4 in each of those games, that's 8.5 wins. If he plays the remaining 47 and we win 1 in 3 that's 15.6 wins

8.5+
15.6
=24.1

Now if he were out longer or Wallace or Green went down then...

If we go 1 win for every 5 games while he's out that's 7 wins, and 1 in 4 when he's back, that's 11.75 which is ...
18.75 wins
lol.
And that's barring no other injuries. I don't think people realize how easily we could be a sub 20 win team. Things would have to go against us but they always seem to go against us with injuries. I mean basically if Avery, Green or Sully goes down then how many more losses does that mean?

Well, if I assume our entire starting lineup and half our bench gets injured and misses the entire season then we probably don't win any games.

How useful of a prediction is that?

Well, we have one player who is missing games due to an injury last season. I don't think it's going overboard to say that if we miss another player for an extended time- say 15-25 games, we'll be dancing with the bottom of the barrel.
That would be one reasonable injury to any player in 82 games played this season.
ie: last season Rondo went down, and Sully went down after him.

Is it unreasonable to assume that other teams will also, on occasion, miss one or two key players?

Or will all of the other teams stay healthy throughout?

of course. I don't know how much other teams would be effected losing their best or second best player compared to us. I mean without Rondo we are probably a 25-30 win team if everything went well.

Our talent depth is a little worrisome at the 4/5 and SG/PG spots.
Avery hasn't played a full season and appears to be injury prone.

Anyway, it is up in the air to an extent.
I'll ask you what record you'd put money on if you had to make the best/wisest gamble.
what are the bookies saying?

I just did a quick google search, and I couldn't see any sites where bookies are prediction individual team records, but this site: http://www.betvega.com/odds-to-win-nba-championship/ looks like it has the Celtics tied with the Hawks and the Wizards for eighth longest odds out of the East to win a title.  That's better odds, according to them, than Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Charlotte, and in a dogfight with the Hawks and the Wizards for the last playoff spot.

 

[chambers]

I'm thinking the schedule is so brutal in November with 18 games in 30 days that he ain't playing any of them.
If he comes back half way through December or 'eases' his way in from the beginning of December then I think missing 5 games into December is reasonable. Then he misses another 5 to 10 throughout the season due to niggling injuries like his plantar and finger, or his knee just flares up a bit. That's an easy 35 games he sits right there. They add up fast.

We just have such a bad defensive big man line up and such a bad shooting line up I can't see us scoring well and I can't see us defending the paint well. Perimeter D will be nice but that only does so much.

If Rondo sits 35 games and we go 1 of 4 in each of those games, that's 8.5 wins. If he plays the remaining 47 and we win 1 in 3 that's 15.6 wins

8.5+
15.6
=24.1

Now if he were out longer or Wallace or Green went down then...

If we go 1 win for every 5 games while he's out that's 7 wins, and 1 in 4 when he's back, that's 11.75 which is ...
18.75 wins
lol.
And that's barring no other injuries. I don't think people realize how easily we could be a sub 20 win team. Things would have to go against us but they always seem to go against us with injuries. I mean basically if Avery, Green or Sully goes down then how many more losses does that mean?

Well, if I assume our entire starting lineup and half our bench gets injured and misses the entire season then we probably don't win any games.

How useful of a prediction is that?

Well, we have one player who is missing games due to an injury last season. I don't think it's going overboard to say that if we miss another player for an extended time- say 15-25 games, we'll be dancing with the bottom of the barrel.
That would be one reasonable injury to any player in 82 games played this season.
ie: last season Rondo went down, and Sully went down after him.

Is it unreasonable to assume that other teams will also, on occasion, miss one or two key players?

Or will all of the other teams stay healthy throughout?

of course. I don't know how much other teams would be effected losing their best or second best player compared to us. I mean without Rondo we are probably a 25-30 win team if everything went well.

Our talent depth is a little worrisome at the 4/5 and SG/PG spots.
Avery hasn't played a full season and appears to be injury prone.

Anyway, it is up in the air to an extent.
I'll ask you what record you'd put money on if you had to make the best/wisest gamble.
what are the bookies saying?

I just did a quick google search, and I couldn't see any sites where bookies are prediction individual team records, but this site: http://www.betvega.com/odds-to-win-nba-championship/ looks like it has the Celtics tied with the Hawks and the Wizards for eighth longest odds out of the East to win a title.  That's better odds, according to them, than Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Charlotte, and in a dogfight with the Hawks and the Wizards for the last playoff spot.

 

I'll also add that the bookies are also considering mid season trades in their numbers. So they factor in what would happen if Aldridge or Love was traded and joined Rondo- and how likely such a trade would be for each team.

They aren't basing their odds just on the current roster so it can be deceiving. I'd say you'll get a clearer picture on Vegas betting around All Star weekend and Draft night when action happens.

[Celtics18]

I'm thinking the schedule is so brutal in November with 18 games in 30 days that he ain't playing any of them.
If he comes back half way through December or 'eases' his way in from the beginning of December then I think missing 5 games into December is reasonable. Then he misses another 5 to 10 throughout the season due to niggling injuries like his plantar and finger, or his knee just flares up a bit. That's an easy 35 games he sits right there. They add up fast.

We just have such a bad defensive big man line up and such a bad shooting line up I can't see us scoring well and I can't see us defending the paint well. Perimeter D will be nice but that only does so much.

If Rondo sits 35 games and we go 1 of 4 in each of those games, that's 8.5 wins. If he plays the remaining 47 and we win 1 in 3 that's 15.6 wins

8.5+
15.6
=24.1

Now if he were out longer or Wallace or Green went down then...

If we go 1 win for every 5 games while he's out that's 7 wins, and 1 in 4 when he's back, that's 11.75 which is ...
18.75 wins
lol.
And that's barring no other injuries. I don't think people realize how easily we could be a sub 20 win team. Things would have to go against us but they always seem to go against us with injuries. I mean basically if Avery, Green or Sully goes down then how many more losses does that mean?

Well, if I assume our entire starting lineup and half our bench gets injured and misses the entire season then we probably don't win any games.

How useful of a prediction is that?

Well, we have one player who is missing games due to an injury last season. I don't think it's going overboard to say that if we miss another player for an extended time- say 15-25 games, we'll be dancing with the bottom of the barrel.
That would be one reasonable injury to any player in 82 games played this season.
ie: last season Rondo went down, and Sully went down after him.

Is it unreasonable to assume that other teams will also, on occasion, miss one or two key players?

Or will all of the other teams stay healthy throughout?

of course. I don't know how much other teams would be effected losing their best or second best player compared to us. I mean without Rondo we are probably a 25-30 win team if everything went well.

Our talent depth is a little worrisome at the 4/5 and SG/PG spots.
Avery hasn't played a full season and appears to be injury prone.

Anyway, it is up in the air to an extent.
I'll ask you what record you'd put money on if you had to make the best/wisest gamble.
what are the bookies saying?

I just did a quick google search, and I couldn't see any sites where bookies are prediction individual team records, but this site: http://www.betvega.com/odds-to-win-nba-championship/ looks like it has the Celtics tied with the Hawks and the Wizards for eighth longest odds out of the East to win a title.  That's better odds, according to them, than Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Charlotte, and in a dogfight with the Hawks and the Wizards for the last playoff spot.

 

I'll also add that the bookies are also considering mid season trades in their numbers. So they factor in what would happen if Aldridge or Love was traded and joined Rondo- and how likely such a trade would be for each team.

They aren't basing their odds just on the current roster so it can be deceiving. I'd say you'll get a clearer picture on Vegas betting around All Star weekend and Draft night when action happens.

Oh, well then, it's nice to hear that the bookies think Aldridge or Love are going to get traded to the Celtics to play alongside Rondo before the trade deadline. 

I hope they're right.

[fantankerous]

I'm thinking the schedule is so brutal in November with 18 games in 30 days that he ain't playing any of them.
If he comes back half way through December or 'eases' his way in from the beginning of December then I think missing 5 games into December is reasonable. Then he misses another 5 to 10 throughout the season due to niggling injuries like his plantar and finger, or his knee just flares up a bit. That's an easy 35 games he sits right there. They add up fast.

We just have such a bad defensive big man line up and such a bad shooting line up I can't see us scoring well and I can't see us defending the paint well. Perimeter D will be nice but that only does so much.

If Rondo sits 35 games and we go 1 of 4 in each of those games, that's 8.5 wins. If he plays the remaining 47 and we win 1 in 3 that's 15.6 wins

8.5+
15.6
=24.1

Now if he were out longer or Wallace or Green went down then...

If we go 1 win for every 5 games while he's out that's 7 wins, and 1 in 4 when he's back, that's 11.75 which is ...
18.75 wins
lol.
And that's barring no other injuries. I don't think people realize how easily we could be a sub 20 win team. Things would have to go against us but they always seem to go against us with injuries. I mean basically if Avery, Green or Sully goes down then how many more losses does that mean?

Well, if I assume our entire starting lineup and half our bench gets injured and misses the entire season then we probably don't win any games.

How useful of a prediction is that?

Well, we have one player who is missing games due to an injury last season. I don't think it's going overboard to say that if we miss another player for an extended time- say 15-25 games, we'll be dancing with the bottom of the barrel.
That would be one reasonable injury to any player in 82 games played this season.
ie: last season Rondo went down, and Sully went down after him.

Is it unreasonable to assume that other teams will also, on occasion, miss one or two key players?

Or will all of the other teams stay healthy throughout?

of course. I don't know how much other teams would be effected losing their best or second best player compared to us. I mean without Rondo we are probably a 25-30 win team if everything went well.

Our talent depth is a little worrisome at the 4/5 and SG/PG spots.
Avery hasn't played a full season and appears to be injury prone.

Anyway, it is up in the air to an extent.
I'll ask you what record you'd put money on if you had to make the best/wisest gamble.
what are the bookies saying?

I just did a quick google search, and I couldn't see any sites where bookies are prediction individual team records, but this site: http://www.betvega.com/odds-to-win-nba-championship/ looks like it has the Celtics tied with the Hawks and the Wizards for eighth longest odds out of the East to win a title.  That's better odds, according to them, than Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Charlotte, and in a dogfight with the Hawks and the Wizards for the last playoff spot.

 

The bookies, much like this blog, don't know what to make of the Celtics.  The C's line has been erratic all summer, ranging from a bottom 10 team to a fringe playoff team.  It should also be noted that the betvega line linked above was set on 9/15, prior to the news that Rondo will miss November.  This will undoubtedly affect our futures odds.

[Celtics18]

I'm thinking the schedule is so brutal in November with 18 games in 30 days that he ain't playing any of them.
If he comes back half way through December or 'eases' his way in from the beginning of December then I think missing 5 games into December is reasonable. Then he misses another 5 to 10 throughout the season due to niggling injuries like his plantar and finger, or his knee just flares up a bit. That's an easy 35 games he sits right there. They add up fast.

We just have such a bad defensive big man line up and such a bad shooting line up I can't see us scoring well and I can't see us defending the paint well. Perimeter D will be nice but that only does so much.

If Rondo sits 35 games and we go 1 of 4 in each of those games, that's 8.5 wins. If he plays the remaining 47 and we win 1 in 3 that's 15.6 wins

8.5+
15.6
=24.1

Now if he were out longer or Wallace or Green went down then...

If we go 1 win for every 5 games while he's out that's 7 wins, and 1 in 4 when he's back, that's 11.75 which is ...
18.75 wins
lol.
And that's barring no other injuries. I don't think people realize how easily we could be a sub 20 win team. Things would have to go against us but they always seem to go against us with injuries. I mean basically if Avery, Green or Sully goes down then how many more losses does that mean?

Well, if I assume our entire starting lineup and half our bench gets injured and misses the entire season then we probably don't win any games.

How useful of a prediction is that?

Well, we have one player who is missing games due to an injury last season. I don't think it's going overboard to say that if we miss another player for an extended time- say 15-25 games, we'll be dancing with the bottom of the barrel.
That would be one reasonable injury to any player in 82 games played this season.
ie: last season Rondo went down, and Sully went down after him.

Is it unreasonable to assume that other teams will also, on occasion, miss one or two key players?

Or will all of the other teams stay healthy throughout?

of course. I don't know how much other teams would be effected losing their best or second best player compared to us. I mean without Rondo we are probably a 25-30 win team if everything went well.

Our talent depth is a little worrisome at the 4/5 and SG/PG spots.
Avery hasn't played a full season and appears to be injury prone.

Anyway, it is up in the air to an extent.
I'll ask you what record you'd put money on if you had to make the best/wisest gamble.
what are the bookies saying?

I just did a quick google search, and I couldn't see any sites where bookies are prediction individual team records, but this site: http://www.betvega.com/odds-to-win-nba-championship/ looks like it has the Celtics tied with the Hawks and the Wizards for eighth longest odds out of the East to win a title.  That's better odds, according to them, than Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Charlotte, and in a dogfight with the Hawks and the Wizards for the last playoff spot.

 

The bookies, much like this blog, don't know what to make of the Celtics.  The C's line has been erratic all summer, ranging from a bottom 10 team to a fringe playoff team.  It should also be noted that the betvega line linked above was set on 9/15, prior to the news that Rondo will miss November.  This will undoubtedly affect our futures odds.

I get the erraticism that is inherently involved in trying to get a handle on the Celtics team.  I've never said that we are a shoo-in to be a playoff team.  What I have been saying is that I believe that with a little bit of good fortune, we can be. 

I honestly don't think Ainge's latest quotes regarding Rondo's potential return time changes things all that much.  He was very vague, and most people were already expecting Rondo to miss the first month of the season, anyway. 

[mmmmm]

I'm thinking the schedule is so brutal in November with 18 games in 30 days that he ain't playing any of them.
If he comes back half way through December or 'eases' his way in from the beginning of December then I think missing 5 games into December is reasonable. Then he misses another 5 to 10 throughout the season due to niggling injuries like his plantar and finger, or his knee just flares up a bit. That's an easy 35 games he sits right there. They add up fast.

We just have such a bad defensive big man line up and such a bad shooting line up I can't see us scoring well and I can't see us defending the paint well. Perimeter D will be nice but that only does so much.

If Rondo sits 35 games and we go 1 of 4 in each of those games, that's 8.5 wins. If he plays the remaining 47 and we win 1 in 3 that's 15.6 wins

8.5+
15.6
=24.1

Now if he were out longer or Wallace or Green went down then...

If we go 1 win for every 5 games while he's out that's 7 wins, and 1 in 4 when he's back, that's 11.75 which is ...
18.75 wins
lol.
And that's barring no other injuries. I don't think people realize how easily we could be a sub 20 win team. Things would have to go against us but they always seem to go against us with injuries. I mean basically if Avery, Green or Sully goes down then how many more losses does that mean?

Well, if I assume our entire starting lineup and half our bench gets injured and misses the entire season then we probably don't win any games.

How useful of a prediction is that?

Well, we have one player who is missing games due to an injury last season. I don't think it's going overboard to say that if we miss another player for an extended time- say 15-25 games, we'll be dancing with the bottom of the barrel.
That would be one reasonable injury to any player in 82 games played this season.
ie: last season Rondo went down, and Sully went down after him.

Is it unreasonable to assume that other teams will also, on occasion, miss one or two key players?

Or will all of the other teams stay healthy throughout?

of course. I don't know how much other teams would be effected losing their best or second best player compared to us. I mean without Rondo we are probably a 25-30 win team if everything went well.

Our talent depth is a little worrisome at the 4/5 and SG/PG spots.
Avery hasn't played a full season and appears to be injury prone.

Anyway, it is up in the air to an extent.
I'll ask you what record you'd put money on if you had to make the best/wisest gamble.
what are the bookies saying?

I already went through the schedule in detail earlier in this thread, looking at each month.  I made the assumption that Rondo returns after November and made a prediction for each month.   I do not predict that we will have any more or less other injuries than any other teams.

My 'best guess' based on that analysis is about 36 wins but I would not put money on any number because, as I said in that analysis, I can easily see us winning less than 30 or more than 40.     A lot of things can and will happen over any 82 game season so I do not make those sorts of bets.