Top five, near locks to make playoffs:
Miami
Brooklyn
Chicago
New York
Indiana
Next five, any three could be a playoff team:
Detroit
Boston
Washington
Cleveland
Toronto
Bottom five, unlikely to make playoffs:
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Orlando
Charlotte
Philadelphia
How is it that Atlanta is 'unlikely to make the playoffs' when they were pretty decent last season and exchanged Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia for Paul Millsap and Elton Brand?
I think one could easily make the case that the Hawks may have improved this offseason.
You could argue that Josh Smith and Paul Millsap are equals individually as players, but I still think the loss of Smith hurts them more than the addition of Millsap will help them.
Smith's versatility was very valuable to them. They were able to play some big, yet athletic lineups with him at the three. This was helpful considering that they have an undersized center in Horford.
Now, their frontline is, although talented, very undersized. Millsap can really only play the four. This means that when they want their best lineup out there, they have to play Millsap and Horford together up front. They've lost their best asset which was that versatility that Smith gave them.
It also seems like they really lack elite level talent at the 1 through 3 positions. On paper, it looks like their backcourt and wing starters could be Jeff Teague, John Jenkins, and Kyle Korver. Two of those guys shouldn't be NBA starters, and while I believe that Teague is a starting level NBA point guard, he's definitely in the bottom tier.
That said, I like their rooks--Schroeder and Noguiera. They probably won't be difference makers just yet, though.
My guess is that the Hawks miss the playoffs this year.