Author Topic: How Many Games Would This Team Win?  (Read 4007 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2013, 07:26:17 AM »

Online Who

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 53080
  • Tommy Points: 2574
Take a look at the following depth chart:

John Wall - Brian Roberts
Tony Allen - Thabo Sefolosha
Luol Deng - Stephen Jackson
Dante Cunningham - Charlie Villanueva
JJ Hickson - Tyler Hansbrough

I would drop Dante Cunningham from the starting lineup and shift Deng to PF with Thabo Sefolosha taking over at SF.

The bench is a horror show. Brian Roberts is a nobody. Jackson is the best bench player and he is only slightly above average (SF). Hansbrough average. Villanueva will be one of the worst backup bigs in the league. Cunningham a top notch string combo forward to below average but serviceable backup combo forward. That bench will be one of the worst in the league and probably cost the team around 10 wins by itself.

I would think a 30-32 win team.

If they could upgrade JJ Hickson to a D.Jordan type, I think that team could make a push for the playoffs. Or if they greatly improve the bench, especially backup C and PG, that team could make a playoff push.

Rondo - Pressey
Bradley - Lee - Bogans - Brooks - Crawford
Green - Wallace
Bass - KO - Faverani
Humphries - Sullinger - Melo


Is the above roster really any better than the hypothetical one?  I'd argue that it's probably worse, especially when you account for Rondo and Sullinger coming back from major injuries.


If you start G-Wallace at PF and Deng at PF on the other team, I think the starting lineups are comparable.

I think Boston's bench is a lot better though. Real backup big men in Sullinger (powerful body at big forward), Brandon Bass (good backup PF), Faverani (legit center with size + physicality) and (hopefully) Olynyk versus Hansbrough, a dodgy shooting big in Villanueva (worst case Olynyk rookie year? Possible) and a third string combo forward. The other team has a real lightweight frontline even more so than this Boston Celtics team. It drags them back.

Both Sullinger and Courtney Lee figure to be better than anyone on the other team's bench. Pressey is a nobody like Roberts and is a fair bet to do more damage to his team than Roberts does given Pressey's turnover and scoring efficiency problems in college. Keith Bogans is a slightly below average but solid backup SG/SF. Gerald Wallace is a top backup SF if on the bench.

So I would say the superior bench gets Boston a few more games than the other team.

Or Boston can go big with it's starting unit, with Sully and Humphries, creating an advantage there versus the other team's starting lineup with D.Cunningham in there. Plus they still have a considerably stronger bench with C.Lee, G-Wallace, Bass and Faverani (with Olynyk, Pressey, Bogans). Again, I would expect the team to win a few more games than the other one listed above.

I think the main difference between the two teams is that the other one has more weak points that will be exploited than Boston's does (mostly due to the bench, also D.Cunningham at PF). Boston has more solid role players to round out it's rotation.

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2013, 08:25:49 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19003
  • Tommy Points: 1833
Our team is better. Better defensively, better offensively, better passing, better ball handling, and better rebounding. So not sure what your point in all of this is.

Sorry, but this is homerism, and blatant at that. 


You definitely couldn't avoid letting your familiarity get in the way.

Nope, not homerism... tell me exactly which of my claims is wrong. To say nothing of your depth chart that is a bit out of whack.

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2013, 08:52:54 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Take a look at the following depth chart:

John Wall - Brian Roberts
Tony Allen - Thabo Sefolosha
Luol Deng - Stephen Jackson
Dante Cunningham - Charlie Villanueva
JJ Hickson - Tyler Hansbrough

I would drop Dante Cunningham from the starting lineup and shift Deng to PF with Thabo Sefolosha taking over at SF.

The bench is a horror show. Brian Roberts is a nobody. Jackson is the best bench player and he is only slightly above average (SF). Hansbrough average. Villanueva will be one of the worst backup bigs in the league. Cunningham a top notch string combo forward to below average but serviceable backup combo forward. That bench will be one of the worst in the league and probably cost the team around 10 wins by itself.

I would think a 30-32 win team.

If they could upgrade JJ Hickson to a D.Jordan type, I think that team could make a push for the playoffs. Or if they greatly improve the bench, especially backup C and PG, that team could make a playoff push.

Rondo - Pressey
Bradley - Lee - Bogans - Brooks - Crawford
Green - Wallace
Bass - KO - Faverani
Humphries - Sullinger - Melo


Is the above roster really any better than the hypothetical one?  I'd argue that it's probably worse, especially when you account for Rondo and Sullinger coming back from major injuries.


If you start G-Wallace at PF and Deng at PF on the other team, I think the starting lineups are comparable.

I think Boston's bench is a lot better though. Real backup big men in Sullinger (powerful body at big forward), Brandon Bass (good backup PF), Faverani (legit center with size + physicality) and (hopefully) Olynyk versus Hansbrough, a dodgy shooting big in Villanueva (worst case Olynyk rookie year? Possible) and a third string combo forward. The other team has a real lightweight frontline even more so than this Boston Celtics team. It drags them back.

Both Sullinger and Courtney Lee figure to be better than anyone on the other team's bench. Pressey is a nobody like Roberts and is a fair bet to do more damage to his team than Roberts does given Pressey's turnover and scoring efficiency problems in college. Keith Bogans is a slightly below average but solid backup SG/SF. Gerald Wallace is a top backup SF if on the bench.

So I would say the superior bench gets Boston a few more games than the other team.

Or Boston can go big with it's starting unit, with Sully and Humphries, creating an advantage there versus the other team's starting lineup with D.Cunningham in there. Plus they still have a considerably stronger bench with C.Lee, G-Wallace, Bass and Faverani (with Olynyk, Pressey, Bogans). Again, I would expect the team to win a few more games than the other one listed above.

I think the main difference between the two teams is that the other one has more weak points that will be exploited than Boston's does (mostly due to the bench, also D.Cunningham at PF). Boston has more solid role players to round out it's rotation.


I think you make a compelling case that our team may be better than this other team . . . yet I still am not convinced that either team is close to playoff caliber.  I just don't believe you can be a competitive team with very little in the way of reliable outside shooting and not a single starting caliber center, not to mention a complete lack of legitimate primary scoring options.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2013, 08:58:28 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19003
  • Tommy Points: 1833
Take a look at the following depth chart:

John Wall - Brian Roberts
Tony Allen - Thabo Sefolosha
Luol Deng - Stephen Jackson
Dante Cunningham - Charlie Villanueva
JJ Hickson - Tyler Hansbrough

I would drop Dante Cunningham from the starting lineup and shift Deng to PF with Thabo Sefolosha taking over at SF.

The bench is a horror show. Brian Roberts is a nobody. Jackson is the best bench player and he is only slightly above average (SF). Hansbrough average. Villanueva will be one of the worst backup bigs in the league. Cunningham a top notch string combo forward to below average but serviceable backup combo forward. That bench will be one of the worst in the league and probably cost the team around 10 wins by itself.

I would think a 30-32 win team.

If they could upgrade JJ Hickson to a D.Jordan type, I think that team could make a push for the playoffs. Or if they greatly improve the bench, especially backup C and PG, that team could make a playoff push.

Rondo - Pressey
Bradley - Lee - Bogans - Brooks - Crawford
Green - Wallace
Bass - KO - Faverani
Humphries - Sullinger - Melo


Is the above roster really any better than the hypothetical one?  I'd argue that it's probably worse, especially when you account for Rondo and Sullinger coming back from major injuries.


If you start G-Wallace at PF and Deng at PF on the other team, I think the starting lineups are comparable.

I think Boston's bench is a lot better though. Real backup big men in Sullinger (powerful body at big forward), Brandon Bass (good backup PF), Faverani (legit center with size + physicality) and (hopefully) Olynyk versus Hansbrough, a dodgy shooting big in Villanueva (worst case Olynyk rookie year? Possible) and a third string combo forward. The other team has a real lightweight frontline even more so than this Boston Celtics team. It drags them back.

Both Sullinger and Courtney Lee figure to be better than anyone on the other team's bench. Pressey is a nobody like Roberts and is a fair bet to do more damage to his team than Roberts does given Pressey's turnover and scoring efficiency problems in college. Keith Bogans is a slightly below average but solid backup SG/SF. Gerald Wallace is a top backup SF if on the bench.

So I would say the superior bench gets Boston a few more games than the other team.

Or Boston can go big with it's starting unit, with Sully and Humphries, creating an advantage there versus the other team's starting lineup with D.Cunningham in there. Plus they still have a considerably stronger bench with C.Lee, G-Wallace, Bass and Faverani (with Olynyk, Pressey, Bogans). Again, I would expect the team to win a few more games than the other one listed above.

I think the main difference between the two teams is that the other one has more weak points that will be exploited than Boston's does (mostly due to the bench, also D.Cunningham at PF). Boston has more solid role players to round out it's rotation.


I think you make a compelling case that our team may be better than this other team . . . yet I still am not convinced that either team is close to playoff caliber.  I just don't believe you can be a competitive team with very little in the way of reliable outside shooting and not a single starting caliber center, not to mention a complete lack of legitimate primary scoring options.

You realize though that the Celtics made the playoffs last year while being 25th in the league in 3 points made last year right, 15th in FG%?

Chicago, Denver, Indiana, and Memphis were poor outside shooting teams. Heck, Chicago and Memphis were dead last in 3pts made per game while having very poor shooting percentages.

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2013, 09:04:13 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Our team is better. Better defensively, better offensively, better passing, better ball handling, and better rebounding. So not sure what your point in all of this is.

Sorry, but this is homerism, and blatant at that. 


You definitely couldn't avoid letting your familiarity get in the way.

Nope, not homerism... tell me exactly which of my claims is wrong. To say nothing of your depth chart that is a bit out of whack.

Alright then, here we go.

Better defensively:

Rondo better than Wall?  Skeptical.  Wall is significantly bigger and more athletic.  Plus he cares more on a regular basis.

Bradley better than TA?  It's relatively close, but TA's size, health, and experience give him the edge.

Green over Deng?  I don't think so.  Deng has been a great wing defender for the best defensive team in the league the past few seasons.

In the frontcourt, neither team has a center who can defend the rim, or even break into the rotation.  Bass vs Cunningham is a wash, Sullinger vs Hansbrough depends on matchups, Olynyk vs Villanueva remains to be seen, Hickson vs Humphries is a wash.

The rest of the bench is a wash.  Thabo is better than Lee; Wallace is better than Jackson; Pressey and Roberts both stink.


Better offensively:

Wall averages more points for his career so far than Rondo ever has for a single season.  Last season he had an ample sample size of games in which he averaged over 20 points a game.

TA is a much better slasher / finisher than Bradley, though he has no jumpshot whereas Bradley has a streaky one.  It's a wash, at best.

When Green is having a good game, he's better than Deng.  But Deng has been much more consistent over his career.

The frontcourt again is pretty much a wash.  Villanueva, for all his drawbacks, is a scorer.  Cunningham is primarily a jumpshooter and finisher of open looks.  Humphries and Hickson have the same skillset.  Hansbrough might be a better scorer than Sullinger; it's hard to tell.

Rest of the bench is, again, a wash, though I suppose Lee is a better scorer than Thabo.


Better passing / ball handling:

I think you're selling John Wall short on the handles part of this equation.  The guy was a consensus top pick in large part because he has a nice crossover and an amazing first step.

As far as passing goes, Rondo does have the edge, but I think Wall is much closer than you probably give him credit for here, too.  Wall has never had the teammates to finish his passes than Rondo has had.  Wall could easily average double digit assists once he gets some finishers.


Better rebounding:

I don't see it.  The hypothetical team is bigger at most of the positions.  Rondo rebounds nicely for his size, but Wall does, too.  TA is a better rebounder than Bradley.  Deng is definitely a better rebounder than Green.  Wallace won't play enough for the difference between him and Jackson to matter.  Bass is not a good rebounder and neither is Cunningham.  Hickson and Humphries are a wash.  Sullinger is probably a bit better than Hansbrough.  Olynyk and Villanueva are probably similarly lightweights on the boards due to their perimeter oriented games.


Overall, I think you can argue these points but to flatly dismiss the hypo team as being, across the board, inferior, suggests a serious bias.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2013, 09:06:05 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182


You realize though that the Celtics made the playoffs last year while being 25th in the league in 3 points made last year right, 15th in FG%?

Chicago, Denver, Indiana, and Memphis were poor outside shooting teams. Heck, Chicago and Memphis were dead last in 3pts made per game while having very poor shooting percentages.

I do realize that.  Our team barely managed a .500 record last season because they had a passable defense which was anchored by an all-time great.  KG is not walking through that door.  The offense this season will be even worse without Paul Pierce around, and the defense will fall off a cliff without KG to anchor it.

A lot of these guys who have looked good in the past couple of seasons playing next to KG will be exposed without him to back them up.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2013, 09:13:48 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
JJ Hickson is indeed a terrible defender.  However, there isn't a single big man on our roster currently who can be even an average defensive player at the center position at this point in time.  Humphries is probably the starting center at the beginning of the season, and I think he and Hickson are very comparable.

JJ Hickson is a sufficiently terrible defender that one can be a below-average defensive player and still be a significant defensive upgrade.

There are different circles of hell and varying degrees of bad.

You might be inclined to think that a difference of a couple of percentage points on shooting percentage is not that big of a deal.  The Celtics as a team had a 46.5% shooting percentage, good for 6th overall.  A team with a 44.5% shooting percentage would have been between the 20th- and 21st-best teams (Toronto and Memphis).  If you put out hypothetical Team A and Team B composed of similar-looking players, but Team B's players have shooting percentages that are generally 1-3 percent higher, that's not two teams that are shooting practically the same, that's two teams with a meaningful difference on one aspect of offense.  All other things (such as defense) being equal, that slightly better shooting could be worth five more wins, perhaps more.  If there's also a seemingly slight but real difference on defense as well, then you could be looking at two teams that look alike but might have a difference of ten wins.


Your points are well taken, but here's the basic point I'm trying to make.


Reliable outside shooters for either team:

Deng, Thabo.

Green, Lee.

You can't count on Olynyk / Villanueva; the former is a rookie and will need to adjust to the NBA 3 (and didn't take very many 3s in college) and the latter is just streaky.  You can't count on Roberts / Pressey because those guys are scrubs.  You can't count on Wallace / Jackson because they are washed up and aren't great shooters anyway (especially Wallace).

Even the guys I listed are hardly go-to shooters.  I wouldn't run a screen play for those guys.  They're mostly just spot-up shooters.


Guys who can anchor a defense / defend the rim on either team:

. . . . .


There's nobody.  Nobody on either team is really a shot-blocking presence, either.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2013, 11:02:48 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19003
  • Tommy Points: 1833
Let's begin with your starting premise of our rotation is a worst case scenario on a healthy roster... it has Bass starting.

Our starting unit should be:

Rondo
Bradley
Green
Sullinger
Humphries.

Our team is better. Better defensively, better offensively, better passing, better ball handling, and better rebounding. So not sure what your point in all of this is.

Sorry, but this is homerism, and blatant at that. 


You definitely couldn't avoid letting your familiarity get in the way.

Nope, not homerism... tell me exactly which of my claims is wrong. To say nothing of your depth chart that is a bit out of whack.

Alright then, here we go.

Better defensively:

Rondo better than Wall?  Skeptical.  Wall is significantly bigger and more athletic.  Plus he cares more on a regular basis.

Bradley better than TA?  It's relatively close, but TA's size, health, and experience give him the edge.

Green over Deng?  I don't think so.  Deng has been a great wing defender for the best defensive team in the league the past few seasons.

In the frontcourt, neither team has a center who can defend the rim, or even break into the rotation.  Bass vs Cunningham is a wash, Sullinger vs Hansbrough depends on matchups, Olynyk vs Villanueva remains to be seen, Hickson vs Humphries is a wash.

The rest of the bench is a wash.  Thabo is better than Lee; Wallace is better than Jackson; Pressey and Roberts both stink.

First of all you're putting too much emphasis physical attributes than on how players actually defend.

I've been very critical of Rondo's defense, but there's no way that Wall is currently a better defender than Rondo. There's no reason to be skeptical, Rondo simply is.

Bradley is indeed better than TA. Tony's advantage really comes from his ability to guard 3 positions, but from an overall impact on the game and on their respective assignments, Bradley is better. Bradley's usual assignment is to guard the PG full court press which completely disrupts the opponents offensive ability, unless there's a legit scorer at the SG position, which then that becomes his assignment like Wade.

That said, regardless of the individual attributes, Rondo and Bradley together have formed one of the most dynamic and dominant defensive combinations I've witnessed in some time, and when Lee gets together with Bradley it continues, if it not improves.

Green is currently a better defender than Deng. Deng has history on his side, but you're, along with the rest of the NBA media, underrating just how dominant defensively Green became last year. Can he do it again? Who knows, I just know where he's at currently.

The rest can't really comment on because it breaks from the premise of how I envision our rotation and starting units. I'll say this, Humphries is not a wash defensively with Hickson, he's a better defender and Sullinger was on his way to become a very good defender last year... not shot blocking, but he was rotating perfectly and being quite disruptive with his hands and physicality.

I also don't know how Pressey will be, particularly since I'm skeptical of him getting any playing time, but he's shown to be quite good defensively, but since he's short I'd be worried about being abused for it, but he's active and disruptive, great foot speed and great hands.

And of course you have Wallace coming off the bench.

That said, our perimeter defense looks to be quite spectacular in my opinion. Seriously, find me a team with a better defensive rotation than Rondo-Bradley-Green with Lee and Wallace as subs. I'm not seeing it anywhere.

It's for this reason that I don't think we'll miss shot blocking and KG all that much because of how good I envision our perimeter defense being, if it wasn't, then we'd be on in serious trouble. But just like a good defensive center can make up for a porous perimeter, a very good collective perimeter can make up for the lack of shot blocking center. But while we lack shot blocking, we have a unit filled with speed and capable of good defensive rotations and help.



Quote
Better offensively:

Wall averages more points for his career so far than Rondo ever has for a single season.  Last season he had an ample sample size of games in which he averaged over 20 points a game.

TA is a much better slasher / finisher than Bradley, though he has no jumpshot whereas Bradley has a streaky one.  It's a wash, at best.

When Green is having a good game, he's better than Deng.  But Deng has been much more consistent over his career.

The frontcourt again is pretty much a wash.  Villanueva, for all his drawbacks, is a scorer.  Cunningham is primarily a jumpshooter and finisher of open looks.  Humphries and Hickson have the same skillset.  Hansbrough might be a better scorer than Sullinger; it's hard to tell.

Rest of the bench is, again, a wash, though I suppose Lee is a better scorer than Thabo.

While Wall averages more points, it's also true that he shoots more a game. With Pierce and Garnett out, you can expect Rondo to shoot more... so far he's also been more efficient than Wall, but we'll have to wait and see on how Rondo does without them. And you can't divorce the fact that Rondo is a better passer from the offensive skillset.

TA and Bradley is quite tricky, I'm personally confident that Bradley will be much better this year. Don't forget that prior to his surgery, Bradley had a season of 50% FG and 41% from 3s. Can he get to that form? Not sure, but I think he can get close to it with a fully healthy summer to work on his game for the first time in his career and training camp. Bradley is a very good cutter though, and him combined with Rondo and his passing can do more damage than the combination of Wall and TA in my opinion. They've shown to be very good together.

Green is superior to Deng, there's really little to no discussion to be made here. Green has been better throughout his career, so consistency is really not that much of an argument for you, but last year he was vastly superior. He's a better shot creator too.

I don't see how you can make the front court a wash... Villanueva sucks, one of the most inefficient frontcourt players in the game currently. Really, there's no comparison here, the offense in our frontcourt is much better. Not only is it more efficient, it's also more versatile and productive, to say nothing of their capability to grab offensive rebounds.

Our bench is more balanced.


Quote
Better passing / ball handling:

I think you're selling John Wall short on the handles part of this equation.  The guy was a consensus top pick in large part because he has a nice crossover and an amazing first step.

As far as passing goes, Rondo does have the edge, but I think Wall is much closer than you probably give him credit for here, too.  Wall has never had the teammates to finish his passes than Rondo has had.  Wall could easily average double digit assists once he gets some finishers.

The problem here is that you're taking "better passing" and "ball handling" to mean Rondo vs. Wall. Though there's some of that, as Rondo is a better passer and distributor, it's a qualification of the whole team, not just 2 individuals.

The fact is that 1-5 our team has better passing and ball handling than your proposed team.

Quote
Better rebounding:

I don't see it.  The hypothetical team is bigger at most of the positions.  Rondo rebounds nicely for his size, but Wall does, too.  TA is a better rebounder than Bradley.  Deng is definitely a better rebounder than Green.  Wallace won't play enough for the difference between him and Jackson to matter.  Bass is not a good rebounder and neither is Cunningham.  Hickson and Humphries are a wash.  Sullinger is probably a bit better than Hansbrough.  Olynyk and Villanueva are probably similarly lightweights on the boards due to their perimeter oriented games.

You're not seeing it because you're underrating Humphries as a rebounder and you're sticking Bass in the starting unit. Sullinger should be our starter over Bass.

Quote
Overall, I think you can argue these points but to flatly dismiss the hypo team as being, across the board, inferior, suggests a serious bias.

Na', I stand by my statements. The team you've constructed is flawed beyond believe. Our team has less weaknesses, is more efficient, and simply put better defensively. There's really little comparison, and the problem with your proposal begins with Bass being in our starting unit because if he is, Stevens should be fired.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2013, 11:49:38 AM by BudweiserCeltic »

Re: How Many Games Would This Team Win?
« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2013, 12:20:39 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182

Na', I stand by my statements. The team you've constructed is flawed beyond believe. Our team has less weaknesses, is more efficient, and simply put better defensively. There's really little comparison, and the problem with your proposal begins with Bass being in our starting unit because if he is, Stevens should be fired.

Whether or not Bass starts or comes off the bench, both the hypo team and our real life team have a four man big rotation comprised of players who ideally should not be starting.  I think they'll all average 20-30 minutes a night depending on matchups.


In any case, I think it's pretty clear that you see reality much differently than I do.  We are looking through drastically different lenses.  As such, there's not much point in trying to have a discussion about it.

Suffice to say, if what you say is true this team will be challenging for home court in the playoffs and might have a chance at making the second round.

If what I say is true, this team will struggle to get over 30 wins and due to injuries might end up closer to 25.

At the end of the day, I think the final result will be closer to my view of things, but I guess we'll see.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain