Author Topic: All these mediocre teams signing mediocre free agents=Celtics 2014 lottery gold.  (Read 23498 times)

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Offline rondoallaturca

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1. Yogi, did you complete forget that in addition to +/-, I also provided the defensive rating of the Celtics with KG on/off the court? Not to mention that in my very last post, I specifically stressed that "I have concrete numbers that show QUITE a significant difference between KG on/off the court". So yes, not only is KG a great defensive player, but we certainly are a much worse defensive team without KG. I won't go to great lengths and say it's TERRIBLE, but it will definitely see a severe decline.

2. They can make him go left for once? They can have a quicker weak side help defender rotate over? Maybe put Lebron on him full time rather than every five possessions? Keep in mind that this is the same Miami Heat that failed to make many proper adjustments against Dallas a few Finals back. Also, let me tell you that there would be a ton more excitement on these boards about Green if he truly could score no matter what adjustments a team like Miami made.

3. Okay, I'll give you that. Especially in the East, it's especially easy to sneak into the back end of the playoffs without having the best defense. Question is, will there be enough overall talent to overcome a poor defense? As for Olynyk, even if you disregard the "lazy" reporters, it still doesn't address the fact that he's never played in a NBA game before. The fact that you need to use him as a main selling point is a huge red flag for the strength of your argument.

4. Not only are you going back to arguments I have already refuted, but how the heck is observing him play more on the perimeter equivalent to me saying he should take less jump shots? Of course you think I'm wrong when you are in fact putting words in my mouth.

5. If I'm interpreting it incorrectly, that means you are, too. A few posts back, you clearly used WS/48 to approximate how many wins a player added to a team. Now I'm doing the SAME thing you are, and all of a sudden it becomes useless? If you're going to criticize my lack of ability of interpreting information correctly, you're only criticizing yourself.

Offline Yogi

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1. You see, I actually provided numbers on the lineups similar to ones we will see next year.  You are talking about a cumulative non KG lineups that include everyone from Barbosa and Crawford to Williams and DJ White.  You have not provided any evidence that lineups of Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger and (Lee, Bass, Wallace, Olynyk, Humphries) will necessarily be bad defensively. 

2. a.  Wow, you should be the Miami coach.  They didn't think to try and make him go left?
b.  Are you talking about the team that played Dallas in the NBA FINALS?!  That have won two titles since then?  The team that is 11-1 in playoff series over the last three years?  The one with the best record in the league?  The one that was in the middle of a historic winning streak when the game was played?  That team that can't make adjustments?

3. Rondo is the only all star among Philly, Orlando, Detroit, Milwaukee, Toronto, Washington and Charlotte.  Jeff Green is close to that level.  Wallace was an all-star 3 years ago.  Yeah I'm going to go ahead and say we have more than enough talent to make the playoffs in the east.   

4. Your claim is Wallace played more in the perimeter and attacked the basket less based on a theory of declining athleticism and your interpretation of highlight videos.  The reality is he was passing up shots in the perimeter.  I am not sure where your confusion lies. 

Here is how Wallace finished his season according to his season review.  "But then, just when it looked like Wallace was a lost cause for the remainder of the season, things completely changed in the playoffs. Although it was a small sample size, Wallace was very good for the Nets in Brooklyn’s seven-game loss to the Bulls in the first round, averaging 12 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting and 37.9 percent shooting from 3-point range, taking full advantage of the fact that the Bulls left him alone on offense – certainly not an unsurprising strategy, given how poorly he played at that end of the floor over the final two months of the year.
Wallace, in fact, was arguably the best player on the floor for the Nets in their disappointing Game 7 loss to the depleted Bulls, scoring 19 points on 8-for-16 shooting – including going 3-for-8 from 3-point range – in 40 minutes in what eventually became a 99-93 loss."  Sounds like an elite player off the bench, no?

5. I used WS/48 to predict what kind of impact Olynyk could have.  I compared him to a player with similar style (High IQ, High skills, limited athleticism etc.)  You were using it to compare Green and Wilcox who not only have different styles, played for different teams, are at different stages of their career, and played significantly different minutes.  One of us is misusing the statistics. 
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Offline rondoallaturca

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1. Yeah, numbers of lineups that were together for what... 10, 20 minutes? It's an incredibly weak argument to extrapolate such a small sample size that comes with many conditions I already glossed over earlier. Meanwhile, I have come up with concrete indisputable numbers to support my side of the story. And note how you described the defensive rating numbers as "cumulative". So you can argue all you want that it included players that are no longer relevant to next year, because it also includes the players that are. Again, I never said that we are 100% going to be a terrible defense. I never said that we're headed towards an abysmal 104.6 defensive rating. But there's no way in hell we approach our numbers with KG.

2. Miami's biggest weakness the past few years is being disengaged. With so much talent, you can't blame them. This is the same team that dug themselves into a 20+ point deficit against Cleveland of all teams, and then came back. After the game, Lebron said that they allowed Cleveland whatever they wanted in the first half, and didn't make the proper adjustments until the second half. Why is it so hard to believe that they simply didn't make the right adjustments that night against the Celtics? Honestly, don't give me any more bull about Miami making adjustments but Green doing well regardless. Just watch the video. Green was able to go right in all four quarters. You have no argument here whatsoever.

3. Again, having one star alone isn't going to make you better than teams without one. Bringing up Deron's Nets for the 612th time, in his first full season with the Nets, he was only able to will his Nets to the 5th worst record in the league, and this was in a lockout season. Go ahead and be optimistic, but realistically, Boston is not looking like a playoff contender even in the East right now. And judging by the general sentiment on the boards, a lot of people seem to agree.

4. How am I confused? You're still not answering my question. Word for word, you said "They were asking him to take MORE jump shots.  Quite the opposite of what you claim here." I asked what claim I made that would be opposite of that statement. To this point, you have not showed me that "claim" you believe I made. Do you know why? It's because I didn't make one. Saying he stayed on the perimeter more does not equate to saying he should take less jump shots. And honestly, 19 points, 5 assists, and 3 three's with little else is not that impressive when it took 40 minutes to do so. Looking at his postseason as a whole, in 34.7 minutes, he managed 12/4/2.4 on .463/.550. No, that doesn't sound like an elite player off the bench.

5. Honestly, you should stop pushing this point, because each time you reply, you're helping my argument. Right now, you just said that it's incorrect to compare the win shares of Green and Wilcox because they "have different styles, played for different teams, are at different stages of their career". Then why are you comparing Olynyk's with Sullinger's? High IQ, high skills (the generality of this is mind-blowing), and limited athleticism can definitely characterize NBA players, but how the heck do they translate to their play style? Rondo has extremely high IQ and that translates into making great, timely passes. Kobe has high basketball IQ and is able to identify and take advantage of holes in the opponent's defense to score. Both are displaying good basketball IQ, but the execution of their style is completely different. Olynyk and Sullinger do NOT have a similar style. Olynyk has greater range and a more diverse offensive arsenal. Ainge pegs him as a stretch-4. Sullinger is not a stretch-4. He has significantly less range and prefers to stay down low where rebounding and battling for advantageous positions are his strengths. Furthermore, going back to the argument where you discount Wilcox's .181 win share because he doesn't play much, but he played 830 minutes on the season. Sullinger played 892. Yet you're using Sullinger's win shares to approximate what kind of impact a completely different styled player will make. Congratulations, you've single-handedly demolished your own argument.

Offline BballTim

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1. That's because lineups without KG generally face the other team's weaker second unit. The C's were -130 when KG was off the court, and posted an awful 104.6 defensive rating. The C's were +112 when KG was on the court, and their defensive rating skyrocketed to 96.2.

  The thing to realize about those numbers is how they changed as the season went on. The defense without KG was terrible for the first part of the season. At one point the difference in defensive rating with and without KG was close to 20 points. The reason the total for the year was less than half of that was because the defense from January on wasn't that much worse when KG was on the bench.

Offline rondoallaturca

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1. That's because lineups without KG generally face the other team's weaker second unit. The C's were -130 when KG was off the court, and posted an awful 104.6 defensive rating. The C's were +112 when KG was on the court, and their defensive rating skyrocketed to 96.2.

  The thing to realize about those numbers is how they changed as the season went on. The defense without KG was terrible for the first part of the season. At one point the difference in defensive rating with and without KG was close to 20 points. The reason the total for the year was less than half of that was because the defense from January on wasn't that much worse when KG was on the bench.

Quote from: rondoallaturca
Again, I never said that we are 100% going to be a terrible defense. I never said that we're headed towards an abysmal 104.6 defensive rating. But there's no way in hell we approach our numbers with KG.

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Full steam ahead 

RAMMING SPEED

TANK it to the bottom ...bayyy Beeee ;D

Time for all those TANK SQUADS ...Bobcats , Cavs , Wizzards to pony up and buy some FA's and make a run  ....they need to spend a little money and go for a banner , now they have had a dozen first round picks each for years.

Let the C's reboot the program for change