The Celtics Could Be a Contender in 2014-2015

[LooseCannon]

Not will, but could, with a bit of luck.  If you think it's possible to build a contender without getting lucky along the way, you're a fool.

Using the estimated team salary from Hoopsworld

The Celtics payroll in 2014-2015 seems likely to include:
Rondo 12,909,090
Wallace 10,105,055
Green 9,445,000
Bass 6,900,000
Lee 5,450,000
Olynyk 2,075,760
Sullinger team option 1,424,520

Bradley qualifying offer of 3,581,302
Bogans unguaranteed 5,058,138
Crawford qualifying offer of 3,206,867
Melo team option 1,367,640
Brooks team option 2,179,354

Colton Iverson and any other player signed to fill out the roster seems likely to not have any guaranteed money for 2014-2015.

That's 48,309425 in salary, treading Sullinger's option as an automatic.  Let's say Bradley is worth at most the $5m/year that Tony Allen got (if Bradley plays a full healthy season shooting 40% on threes and 45-47% on long twos while deservedly being named first team All-Defensive, how much is he worth?).  His cap hold would be $6,278,580, so it would make sense for the Celtics to sign him before trying to use cap space.

Plus you have a cap hold for a couple of first round picks.  If the Celtics have a top ten pick, the hold will probably be anywhere from $2m to $4.5m, although the player will probably sign for 120% of that figure.  A 2014 pick from the Nets if they (or the Hawks, since Atlanta can swap picks with Brooklyn) are a playoff team will have a hold of $1-1.5m.

Depending on what the salary cap ends up being, counting holds for Bradley and the first-round picks, the Celtics start out a few million under the cap.  As the Golden State-Utah trade shows, it is possible to dump salary even if the picks look like late first-rounders.  So, Bass and Lee should be moveable.  It should also be cheaper to move them since they make less money than Biedrins or Jefferson while also being more useful.  The Celtics could be able to clear enough salary to offer a free agent $12m with cap space, maybe as much as $15m.  Maybe you would like it if the Celtics could see a roster core of Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger, Olynyk, a top five 2014 draft pick (if the Celtics get lucky), and a free agent center that could be Pau Gasol or Andrew Bogut (not my ideal choices) or a younger big like Demarcus Cousins or Larry Sanders if their teams don't lock them up long-term.

But wait, you say, no free agents will sign with Boston?  Well, the Celtics can still do a trade.  The expiring contract of Brandon Bass plus the non-guaranteed contract of Keith Bogans (hopefully the guarantee date is after the July moratorium) provide perfectly acceptable salary filler that can be combined with draft picks and maybe something from the group of the Celtics 2014 pick or one of Sullinger/Olynyk.  Maybe Carmelo opts out and goes to the Lakers and the Knicks will trade Tyson Chandler and his expiring contract to whoever will give them picks.  Maybe Hollinger drives Memphis nuts and they decide they need to dump Marc Gasol because he's about to turn 30.  Maybe Derrick Rose comes back as a completely timid player no longer worth even half his salary and the Bulls decide they need to blow it up and dump salary, making Joachim Noah available before he is completely run into the ground by Tom Thibodeau.

If you don't believe in Bradley as a starting SG the way I do, then maybe you try to use him as a trade asset and seek to acquire an All-Star shooting guard and a role-playing center such as Marcin Gortat or Omer Asik, or maybe that 2014 first-round pick ends up being the Celtics starting center of the future.

I'm not saying the Celtics will be a contender in 2014-2015.  I'm just saying it could happen.  It may take some luck, but Danny Ainge has put this team in a position to get lucky if the opportunity comes along.  Sure Rondo can return as a shell of his former shelf, Jeff Green's stint as a starter can be a fluke, and Olynyk could be a total bust, but the exact opposite of all those things can happen to.

I'm not asking anyone to believe this team absolutely, positively will be a contender after a quick one-year rebuild, just to accept the possibility that it could happen and let yourself feel some optimism that the team isn't necessarily doomed for years to come.