Jimmy Butler

[Boris Badenov]

Pekovic wasn't going to come over if he was a first round pick (If he was a really high one he would have I guess), salary issues. He had to be a second round pick.

I did not remember that.

I that case the next two choices after Giddens would be Walter Sharpe and Joey Dorsey. Dorsey was a scrub, but he hung around for another year and played in a few more games than Giddens. Unfortunately I think you could pick about anyone taken in the 15 picks after Giddens and it would still be a "miss."

What subbing Dorsey for Pekovic does do, I think, is highlight that Danny's picks all together are just so much better in terms of their overall value as NBA players than the other two groups

JR Giddens          Walter Sharpe            Joey Dorsey
Bill Walker           Malik Hairston          Richard Hendrix
Semih Erden        n/a                           n/a
Lester Hudson     Chinemelu Elonu      Robert Dozier
Avery Bradley      James Anderson       Craig Brackins
Luke Harangody  Pape Sy                    Willie Warren
Jujuan Johnson    Norris Cole              Cory Joseph
E'Twuan Moore    Chuk.. Maduabum   Targuy Ngombo

I'm no GM, but I'm pretty sure that most GMs would take that first list as a group over the other two.

None of the three choices are great, of course, but that is my point. Choosing in those draft positions is very, very tough.

[ManUp]

The last four drafts have not been good for Ainge.  Ever since the draft rules were changed, he hasn't all that good. Bradley's been okay, he's had one bad year, one decent and one pretty good year.  Sullinger was a calculated risk and too good to pass up.  If he can overcome his back issue, he'll be a big draft hit but it's worrisome that the prognosis of his back was right on the mark.  With Melo, I look fondly at his BPG number in the D-League and think it should translate in the NBA, giving him value but when I watch him play, I see a poor athlete and potential bust. Right now a big like Ezeli who could've provided strong defense this season looks like the better player.

I'd like to see Ainge adjust his draft strategy a bit.  He goes for too many home runs in the first round. JaJuan Johnson and Giddens were fantastic athletes who've busted for a variety of reasons.  Gerald Green was a similar bust to Giddens with a low basketball IQ and terrible ballhandling skills.  I'm not sure why Ainge doesn't value ballhandling skills in his perimeter players but from Gerald and Tony to Delonte, Bradley and Giddens (all not busts obviously) he's drafted some of the worst ballhandling perimeter players who've entered the league the past ten years.

Ainge has done a pretty poor job since the 2008 off season.

I think Danny has done his worst when drafting for positional needs in stead of BPA. JR Giddens and Bill Walker were supposed to be Posey replacements. Lester Hudson was the 58th pick in the draft. Avery Bradley was BPA and Harangody was a 52 pick.  JuJuan Johnson was the shot blocking big the team was missing. Sullinger was BPA, Fab Melo was a shot blocking center something the team was sorely lacking, Joseph is a 51 pick .

Out of our last 5 1st round picks only Bradley and Sullinger were considered BPA. Giddens(and Walker) was supposed to help backup the wing by committee. Johnson was drafted because all we had no talented size outside of Garnett at the time. Melo was picked because we needed a center.

Hopefully Danny realizes drafting for need doesn't work, at least not when he does it.

I'm not sure I understand how you can label players as "need" or "BPA" so concretely, unless you have an insight into Danny's mind that no one else on this board does.

Why was Johnson a "need" at PF while Sully at PF the next year was "BPA"? Didn't we have a "need" for a perimeter defender when we drafted AB? Did Danny specifically mention Walker as a replacement for Posey? Etc.

Just by observations and my interpretation of Danny's reasoning. Off the top of my head, correct me if I'm wrong. Johnson was drafted when Davis was up for a new contract and the only guys that were guaranteed on our roster were Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and Jermaine O'neal. It's the year Garnett was forced to play Center due to our complete lack of size. Size was a major need for us that off-season after losing Perkins and Shaq.

When we failed to get a replacement for Posey a lot of the talk was backup by commitee. We still had house to backup Rondo, TA for Ray, Garnett had Davis and Powe, Perkins was covered by Garnett or Davis. Tony was our only dependable backup wing.

AB wasn't a need pick because prior to the draft we had Nate Robinson, Rondo, TA, Ray, Giddens, and Walker on the perimeter. Also Bradley's stock was soaring after workouts and he was considered a potential late lottery pick around that time. By the time pick 19 came he was widely considered BPA.

Sullinger was a top 5-10 guy who was only dropping because of red flags. He was a no-brainer at 21. Melo was a fringe first round guy in a loaded draft with a bunch of better players who were sliding. 
 
I'm just looking at what seems to be a pattern.