http://basketball.realgm.com/article/219177/The_Art_Of_The_Managed_Blow_UpJeff mentioned (and provided a link to) this article by Elrod Enchilada on the front page, but I figured I would make a forum post highlighting the article because I believe it is very astute and well-written.
In particular, I thought this was gold:
The Celtics had a terrible interregnum from the early 1990s to 2007. That is the status quo for many NBA teams, and something along those lines will likely be the Celtics future unless the team gets lucky. Danny Ainge’s job is to put the team in the best possible position to get lucky.
. . . .
There are three iron laws for putting yourself in position to get lucky.
First, accumulate No. 1 picks.
Second, do not waste capspace.
Third, do not fear being very bad for as long as it takes. No. 3 has the added advantage of making the No. 1 draft pick much higher than it might be otherwise. It has nothing to do with “tanking.” Guys are playing as hard as they can; they just aren’t that good, because the team’s focus is on the future, not the present.
The downside to all of this is that even a team that scrupulously follows these rules may never succeed. That can be a career-ending recipe for a GM as fans tire of a very bad team with no apparent future after a few seasons. It takes courage, vision and a degree of luck. And it takes fans with vision and an understanding of the process. The Celtics have such fans, if they sense the management knows what it is doing. See the tremendous fan support the Celtics lottery teams of 2006 and 2007 received; fans sensed the team was building to something and they were paid off royally.
Those three rules for rebuilding are so good and fundamental they ought to be written on stone tablets.
He also had this to say to people who would say we ought to stay the course, and even attempt to remain competitive with this core group for as long as they're able to play (allowing them to retire as Celtics):
Ainge is certainly NOT going to squander capspace and draft picks on short-term fixes to make Garnett and Allen happy so the team can finish 43-39 and get the eighth seed in 2013.
Then what happens if the Cs enter 2012-13 with Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, a bunch of kids and a handful of Dooling-type journeymen to round out the roster? It will be a team certainly headed to the lottery, but with a grumpy disposition. Paul will be 35; he does not want to go through yet another rebuild. He wants to win and win now. The karma around the team will be sour and there will be pressure on Danny to get some veterans so we can make the 8th seed again and have the much-vaunted “puncher’s chance.” Danny will be doing Paul Pierce and the Cs no favors by keeping him around just to provide a memory of better times. It could become a nightmare.
All it will do, to be blunt, is postpone and make more difficult the rebuilding process. It is hard enough to build a legitimate contender under the best of circumstances. There is no reason to increase the odds. Best to start it right now, assuming deals along the lines I suggest are indeed plausible.
Topic: The Art of the Managed Blow-Up (Read 795 times)