explain this to me

[chambers]

unfortunately, Rondo is too good for this team now.
They are holding him back and the sooner we inject some new blood to help him out, the better.
 
This happens by either blowing it up and rebuilding around him, or trying a similar route we took in the fashion of acquiring all stars/superstars like Ray Allen and KG. The only thing is that this time, we get them through free agency and not trades or draft picks ( unless we can move those guys for top 15 draft picks, which is unlikely).

This way, we can take advantage of Rondo has he enters his prime. If we choose the draft/development route we will probably lose 3-4 years of Rondo in his prime, so it won't surprise me if Danny goes after particular pieces next year, and the year after, to make another 2-3 year run. I say this because he sounds like he really doesn't want to trade Rondo, as much as his haters here would love it to be the case.

As I said at the start of this post, Rondo is just too good for this old team now and they are holding him back.

[cman88]

I guess I just don't see deron as a huge upgrade...he's not exactly leading thenets anywhere is shooting 41% from the field and would likely bail if we aren't a contender right away

Cp3 on the. Other hand is a different story

[European NBA fan]

No one has answered the elephant in the room though...d.will costs $20mill vs rondos $10mill...is he THAT much of an improvement? Or would rondo and a solid wing player for$10mill be just as good?  

First, the gap isn't that big.  It's about $6 million per year, so the analysis is really "Deron or Rondo + MLE-level player?"

In my mind, superstars win; the gap between Deron and Rondo is bigger than an MLE player.  

So you are saying that Deron is not opting out to get a max contract next year? I will see that, before I believe it.

Furthermore the real difference is: With Deron you can sign Howard and a good role player, with Rondo you can sign Howard and an all star caliber player.

[Roy H.]

I guess I just don't see deron as a huge upgrade...he's not exactly leading thenets anywhere is shooting 41% from the field and would likely bail if we aren't a contender right away

The only reason any team should trade for Deron right now is to pair him with Howard in the off-season.  Otherwise, you're correct, he's likely to bolt.

[Roy H.]

No one has answered the elephant in the room though...d.will costs $20mill vs rondos $10mill...is he THAT much of an improvement? Or would rondo and a solid wing player for$10mill be just as good? 

First, the gap isn't that big.  It's about $6 million per year, so the analysis is really "Deron or Rondo + MLE-level player?"

In my mind, superstars win; the gap between Deron and Rondo is bigger than an MLE player. 

So you are saying that Deron is not opting out to get a max contract next year? I will see that, before I believe it.

Where did I say that?

Whether he opts out or not, Deron's contract is likely to be right around $18 million next year.  Rondo is at $11 million, so next year the gap will be about $7 million.  That still lands you a pretty mediocre player in the grand scheme of things.

[indeedproceed]

Some people want to upgrade the PG position because 1) even if your PG is going to be your 2nd option, it's best to have that 2nd option be as good as possible; and 2) they see Deron (or CP3 or whomever) as being a bigger drawing card to attract free agents than Rondo.

Nailed it. Consider this 'explained'.

[BballTim]

   Shoot first PG's rarely win NBA titles.  Pass first PG's have won the vast majority of NBA titles throughout NBA history.

I think sometimes people look too much at labels.  Is Deron a "shoot first" or "pass first" PG?  He scores a lot, but he also puts up a lot of assists.

Yeah the labeling is getting ridiculous; you're either a good player (someone who can both contribute and get other involved and make good decisions) or you are not.  The reason why people on these boards had to start using labels is because Rondo is not a complete player.  So to pretend he is elite they have to cover his flaws and label him as being the best in category x y z, yet he is horrible in  t u v.  And then they argue well I'd rather have x y z than t u v in my point guard.  You know what I'll make thing simple; just give me Rose, Westbrook, CP3, D-Will (because they are all better players overall), and let someone else have Rondo.

  Maybe it's not because Rondo isn't a "complete player", but because many of the other players aren't complete players either and a lot of the people here don't realize that. The Rondo has a bigger positive impact on the Celts offense than Westbrook has on the Thunder's, just like he did last year. Some people decide who's a better player by just looking at t u v, some people decide who's better by judging someone's overall impact on a game, which means looking at x y z as well as t u v.

[Moranis]

No one has answered the elephant in the room though...d.will costs $20mill vs rondos $10mill...is he THAT much of an improvement? Or would rondo and a solid wing player for$10mill be just as good? 

First, the gap isn't that big.  It's about $6 million per year, so the analysis is really "Deron or Rondo + MLE-level player?"

In my mind, superstars win; the gap between Deron and Rondo is bigger than an MLE player. 

That's my thinking as well.  I also think Deron is much more likely to attract other big name free agents.  Whether it is Dwight next year or someone else down the line. 

I also posted a thread the other day asking if Rondo and Williams could play together (sort of like Paul and Billups) because I really think that is a route Boston should explore this summer. 

[BballTim]

   Shoot first PG's rarely win NBA titles.  Pass first PG's have won the vast majority of NBA titles throughout NBA history.

This isn't true at all.  I posted something on this some time in the last week.  Scoring PG's are far more likely to win a championship than Passing PG's.  Even if you look at the all time great PG's that were a first or second option on title teams (Magic is the clear exception not the rule).  Just look back to the Isiah (scoring) title teams and work forward: Isiah (scoring), Paxson (scoring), Cassell (scoring), Harper (scoring), A. Johnson (passing), Fisher/Harper x5 (scoring), Parker x3 (scoring), Billups (scoring), Payton/Williams (scoring), Rondo (passing), Kidd (passing).

  Many of those guys were afterthoughts in their offenses, it doesn't matter if they were passing or scoring point guards. Also, Isiah certainly fits into the passing point guard category, he's top 5 all time in assists/game. The players on your list that were somewhat major parts of their offenses that weren't really great at distributing/running their offense were probably Billups, Parker and Cassell.

Zeke was the leading scorer on the Pistons both years they won the title.  That is a scoring PG.  Stephon Marbury is 16th in APG, is he a pass-first PG?  What about Kevin Johnson (9th)?  Tim Hardaway (11th)?   Baron Davis (21st)? Tiny Archibald (20th)?  And there are plenty of others in the top 30 or so all time.  

Of the PG's that were arguably a top 3 player on a championship team all time and even giving you Isiah as a hybrid - you have Kidd (passing), Parker (scoring), Billups (scoring), Zeke (hybrid), Magic (passing), Frazier (scoring), Tiny (scoring), JoJO White (scoring), Goodrich (scoring), Dandridge (scoring), Cousy (hybrid).  

The reality is, scoring trumps passing.  

  Thomas was known at least as much for his point guard skills as his scoring. The reality is that you can win a title with any of pass first, shoot first or hybrid point guards. If you could come up with a reason why scoring point guards or passing point guards or shooting guards or small forwards make it more likely to win a title then your numbers would be usefulto back up your point. All you have is statistical totals that may or may not correlate to anything.

[Marcus13]

Deron Williams is an obvious upgrade of Rondo - but with that max contract versus Rondo's, I dont know if you really want to make that deal.

I wouldnt want Westbrook on my team.  Can't win in the playoffs with guys like him

[Moranis]

   Shoot first PG's rarely win NBA titles.  Pass first PG's have won the vast majority of NBA titles throughout NBA history.

This isn't true at all.  I posted something on this some time in the last week.  Scoring PG's are far more likely to win a championship than Passing PG's.  Even if you look at the all time great PG's that were a first or second option on title teams (Magic is the clear exception not the rule).  Just look back to the Isiah (scoring) title teams and work forward: Isiah (scoring), Paxson (scoring), Cassell (scoring), Harper (scoring), A. Johnson (passing), Fisher/Harper x5 (scoring), Parker x3 (scoring), Billups (scoring), Payton/Williams (scoring), Rondo (passing), Kidd (passing).

  Many of those guys were afterthoughts in their offenses, it doesn't matter if they were passing or scoring point guards. Also, Isiah certainly fits into the passing point guard category, he's top 5 all time in assists/game. The players on your list that were somewhat major parts of their offenses that weren't really great at distributing/running their offense were probably Billups, Parker and Cassell.

Zeke was the leading scorer on the Pistons both years they won the title.  That is a scoring PG.  Stephon Marbury is 16th in APG, is he a pass-first PG?  What about Kevin Johnson (9th)?  Tim Hardaway (11th)?   Baron Davis (21st)? Tiny Archibald (20th)?  And there are plenty of others in the top 30 or so all time.  

Of the PG's that were arguably a top 3 player on a championship team all time and even giving you Isiah as a hybrid - you have Kidd (passing), Parker (scoring), Billups (scoring), Zeke (hybrid), Magic (passing), Frazier (scoring), Tiny (scoring), JoJO White (scoring), Goodrich (scoring), Dandridge (scoring), Cousy (hybrid).  

The reality is, scoring trumps passing.  

  Thomas was known at least as much for his point guard skills as his scoring. The reality is that you can win a title with any of pass first, shoot first or hybrid point guards. If you could come up with a reason why scoring point guards or passing point guards or shooting guards or small forwards make it more likely to win a title then your numbers would be usefulto back up your point. All you have is statistical totals that may or may not correlate to anything.

because scoring wins titles, not passing.  Especially in the playoffs.  The player that can create his own shot is incredibly valuable down the stretch of close games.  The teams that have that player with the ball in his hand that creates the shot for himself (position doesn't matter) do far better than the team that rely on the PG to set up others.  Even when Boston won its most recent title, Pierce was the player with the ball in his hand down the stretch.  A PG is essentially worthless offensively down the stretch in close playoff games unless he can score the ball himself and do so consistently.  

[mgent]

   Shoot first PG's rarely win NBA titles.  Pass first PG's have won the vast majority of NBA titles throughout NBA history.

I think sometimes people look too much at labels.  Is Deron a "shoot first" or "pass first" PG?  He scores a lot, but he also puts up a lot of assists.

For that matter, was Bob Cousy a pass first or shoot first PG?  He averaged 17.8 FGA per game for his career, as opposed to 7.5 assists.  While it's not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison between Cousy and today's point guards, a guy like Deron has averaged 13.6 FGA per game over his career, and has averaged 9.2 assists.

Cousy was the ideal PG:  he was a very good scorer and a great passer.  In an ideal world, that's the type of player we'd have running our team; it doesn't have to be either pass or score, but rather, both.

With such a subjective label I don't think stats are very helpful in identifying.  Rather it's almost purely an eye test.  I think there's a fine line between running an offense and creating offense (even though running the offense often results in creation).

I did not have the honor of giving Cousy the eye test, but from what I have seen it looks like he cared much more about getting his teammates involved than involving himself.  The biggest criteria of a pass-first PG is they are the only players allowed to pass up open buckets.  Cousy was a common offender seeing as his sky hook was probably better than any of the bigs in today's game.  There's not many of these left and outside of Rondo, Nash, and Calderon none of them are really worth mentioning (actually I'll give Andre Miller a nod after his game last night).  They always consider their own shot as "settling."

I personally rank Deron as neither.  When I look at it I very clearly see 3 categories.  Deron and CP3 get a lot of assists but the majority come as a result of their own scoring.  Whether it's double teams, the way guys play them in the pick and roll, or their bigs beating the other bigs down the court.  They're always looking for others but the second they see daylight they're doing it themselves.  This level of unpredictability causes defenses to make the most difficult decisions.  Their idea of running an offense is to look for their own shot and that threat alone will make good things happen.

Score-first is a little more self-explanatory.  Guys like Rose, Westbrook, and Monta also get a lot of assists, but that doesn't make them true points.  They are capable passers but that's not how they think they can help their team best.  They forget their responsibility to look for their teammates and instead go straight to the basket where they'll find a way to get open or collapse the defense for a much easier assist.