Greg Oden may get a 4 year, $40 million offer from the Blazers

[GreenEnvy]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/213422/Oden_Looks_At_Free_Agency_As_His_Move

Greg Oden will be a restricted free agent during this offseason and the Blazers are almost certain to extend the qualifying offer.

But there are also reports that the Blazers may make a four-year, $40 million offer.

"The way I look at it," he said, "is that it's not their move. It's my move. Everyone says it's their move. I think it's my move."

There is inherent risk in offering long-term money, but it could prove to be a below market contract if Oden remains healthy.

As one Eastern Conference executive put it on Friday, "If you know Oden is a 1-in-20 shot to come back and be a factor, you have to take it. Because not signing him, you have a 0-in-20 shot of being there if he does.

"Still, $40 mil makes you think."

I know, most of you probably don't care at this point, but I found this to be pretty insane, considering the fact that he hasn't played hardly at all. $40 million for a 1 out of 20 potential??

And how much do you wanna bet that the Eastern Conference exec that they discussed the matter with was none other than our very own Danny Ainge? Seems like the type of contract gamble he'd take.

Please list the long-term, big-money contracts he gambled on.

'Sheed and JO are about the closest you could come, and those were three- and two-year deals for the MLE. Not long term, and not exactly big money. One was risky because of age and motivation, the other because of injury. And it is looking like both come up big when we need them.

He passed on Posey, TA, and probably would have let Perk go if he wanted too much. He got KG, Ray AND Pierce to take big paycuts. Got Rondo on a very good contract.

If anything, Ainge takes risks with trades. IMO, he's thrifty when it comes to doling out contracts.

[Who]

And Yao is getting $100 mill


April Fools!!!!!!

I am thinking two years $25 million for Yao.

[manbehindtheman]

This would be ridiculous. No wonder there's the strong threat of a lockout: $10 million -- TEN ... MILLION!! ... DOLLARS -- for a guy who's averaged 9.4 points and may never be fully healthy?? And who wasn't a lock for NBA success to begin with?? I wouldn't give him more than the MLE, but I'd prefer the vet min.

i agree with this sentiment.  I wouldn't mind seeing a lockout.  I want to see a reset here. I want ticket prices to be affordable for a family and with these player contracts the size that they are, that can't happen.  I don't know who it is that bring a family of 5 to a game, but I'm not going to shell out nearly 300 dollars door to door for 2.5 hours of enjoyment.

[screwedupmaniac]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/213422/Oden_Looks_At_Free_Agency_As_His_Move

Greg Oden will be a restricted free agent during this offseason and the Blazers are almost certain to extend the qualifying offer.

But there are also reports that the Blazers may make a four-year, $40 million offer.

"The way I look at it," he said, "is that it's not their move. It's my move. Everyone says it's their move. I think it's my move."

There is inherent risk in offering long-term money, but it could prove to be a below market contract if Oden remains healthy.

As one Eastern Conference executive put it on Friday, "If you know Oden is a 1-in-20 shot to come back and be a factor, you have to take it. Because not signing him, you have a 0-in-20 shot of being there if he does.

"Still, $40 mil makes you think."

I know, most of you probably don't care at this point, but I found this to be pretty insane, considering the fact that he hasn't played hardly at all. $40 million for a 1 out of 20 potential??

And how much do you wanna bet that the Eastern Conference exec that they discussed the matter with was none other than our very own Danny Ainge? Seems like the type of contract gamble he'd take.

Please list the long-term, big-money contracts he gambled on.

'Sheed and JO are about the closest you could come, and those were three- and two-year deals for the MLE. Not long term, and not exactly big money. One was risky because of age and motivation, the other because of injury. And it is looking like both come up big when we need them.

He passed on Posey, TA, and probably would have let Perk go if he wanted too much. He got KG, Ray AND Pierce to take big paycuts. Got Rondo on a very good contract.

If anything, Ainge takes risks with trades. IMO, he's thrifty when it comes to doling out contracts.

Do Raef LaFrenz and Mark Blount ring any bells?

[jaybahs]

Hollinger has proven over the years to be nothing but a celtics hater ... This guy literally lets his dislike of the Celtics organization/team cloud his writing every time. I don't care what anybody on this blog says ... If we were playing the Toronto Raptors in the second round ... This guy would probably waste his life away trying to find some "statistical evidence" of why and how we were going to lose the series. It wouldn't matter if this team won 70+ ... This guy would write some baloney about rondo's jumpshot and how it would be the reason the team was ousted ... Hollinger is a BUM.

[GreenEnvy]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/213422/Oden_Looks_At_Free_Agency_As_His_Move

Greg Oden will be a restricted free agent during this offseason and the Blazers are almost certain to extend the qualifying offer.

But there are also reports that the Blazers may make a four-year, $40 million offer.

"The way I look at it," he said, "is that it's not their move. It's my move. Everyone says it's their move. I think it's my move."

There is inherent risk in offering long-term money, but it could prove to be a below market contract if Oden remains healthy.

As one Eastern Conference executive put it on Friday, "If you know Oden is a 1-in-20 shot to come back and be a factor, you have to take it. Because not signing him, you have a 0-in-20 shot of being there if he does.

"Still, $40 mil makes you think."

I know, most of you probably don't care at this point, but I found this to be pretty insane, considering the fact that he hasn't played hardly at all. $40 million for a 1 out of 20 potential??

And how much do you wanna bet that the Eastern Conference exec that they discussed the matter with was none other than our very own Danny Ainge? Seems like the type of contract gamble he'd take.

Please list the long-term, big-money contracts he gambled on.

'Sheed and JO are about the closest you could come, and those were three- and two-year deals for the MLE. Not long term, and not exactly big money. One was risky because of age and motivation, the other because of injury. And it is looking like both come up big when we need them.

He passed on Posey, TA, and probably would have let Perk go if he wanted too much. He got KG, Ray AND Pierce to take big paycuts. Got Rondo on a very good contract.

If anything, Ainge takes risks with trades. IMO, he's thrifty when it comes to doling out contracts.

Do Raef LaFrenz and Mark Blount ring any bells?

Eh, no denying Blount was a bad contract, but Raef was in a trade. He was a pretty good player in his day, especially in Denver. He was probably never really worth that, but still, Danny didn't hand him that contract. DA wanted 'Toine gone, so he took back a bad contract that netted him some decent value (DWest I think).

Both were a long time ago, and he rectified both anyway.

[LancerQ]

I saw  some vids of him on YouTube, blocking Andrew Bynum, he's really good - I was shocked that neither of them got injured on the play...

[BudweiserCeltic]

Portland is already tied-up with long contracts with Roy and Aldridge, and them being contenders I doubt they'll play the free-agent game until those two contracts expire, as such paying Oden for four years is low risk as buying power of free-agent goes, and high reward potential if he returns and plays well and as trade asset when he expires. I don't see how you pass on the opportunity, unless owners are worried about paying that amount of money for an injured player, though I guess some insurance relief will be in place regardless.

So it all comes down the strategy of the team, if they plan to set themselves up short term to be players in free-agency, then certainly this might not make much sense, but I don't see them doing so, vs. long term value.

[bdm860]

Just think what you could get for him in a trade in the last year of that contract.  Gotta be smart and think ahead fellas   

[action781]

4 years 40 million though?  Man... not TOO ridiculous, but that's right on the boundary of being just barely too much.  The question is why?  To prevent him from becoming an UFA next year?

Two main reasons:

(1) Like you said, to stop Oden from becoming an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

There is a fear that Oden will need all of next season to play himself back into shape / form ... and that he will only be at full fitness the following year ... that Portland will have spent all of that time and money to get Oden back in top basketball shape (and will have succeeded) ... only to see another team reap the benefits of all of their hard work.  

Side Note: Greg Oden isn't expected to be ready for the start of next season. Expected to miss the whole of training camp and return sometime early in the regular season. Before the new year. This is after Oden has spent the last two years sitting on the sideline and who knows where his game is at that point or how long it'll take him to fully recover once he returns to the court.

(2) To stop another team from offering Oden an even larger offer sheet ... and putting Portland in an even more difficult situation in the process.

What if a team offers him $45 million or a five year $50 million deal?

Your response to #1 is exactly what I was thinking.  Makes pretty good fiscal sense.  $40 mil is RIGHT in that $5 mil or so range of the border between OK to sign and too much.  I think if another team offers him $45-50 mil in restricted free agency, you let them take him.  That is a high risk, high reward gamble where I believe the risk outweighs the reward and you just got a team to take on a bad contract.

Still hurts to let a potentially very good player walk away without having cap space to get a replacement though...