Hollinger PER Diem on Celtics

[Ersatz]

I can't read Hollinger's column on the Celtics today because I don't have Insider, but the first two paragraphs tell me what it's is going to be about: the Celtics are on the pace of historically great shooting and eFG percentages. This pace is unsustainable, and in the last part of the season they will have to fall off, which will cause problems because of their narrowing margin of victory. Or something like that.

Excuse me, but blah blah. As much as I am a stat geek and think they reveal important things about the game, this seems like a specious "argument." For one, somebody has to violate historic average at some point. That's the very nature of norms: someone will go amazingly beyond them (just as someone will go amazingly under them). Second, it doesn't look at the equally historic composition of this team: the center has one of the highest career shooting percentages in NBA history; the shooting guard is one of the highest-percentage three-point shooters in NBA history; the point guard shoots over 50% and has for the past two seasons; the power forward gets a lot of open looks and shoots well from several places on the floor; the shooting forward has always had a great midrange game and has steadily increased his long-ball shooting over the years. In other words, though the team is shooting at historic percentages, none of the players is. In fact, they are all at about their career averages.

The only reason they can't continue this is that stat geeks have to be, well, stat geeks. They see an anomaly and have to explain it away, being sure it has to revert back to norm. But it's not like their percentages are outrageously high, and despite their shooting efficiency, they are not overall a hugely efficient offensive team (10th in the league at this point). And the sample size is not that small: a third of the season is a big sample.

This isn't to say the Cs won't fall back some. Garnett's absence might even ensure it. But the basic facts suggest there's no inevitability to it. Writing whole columns as if it were a "concern" is silly and reeks of a writer being short of column ideas rather than a serious analysis of facts.

[gar]

Mentioned this earlier. Every single starter and most of the bench mob were shooting way above their career averages. I was waiting for the bottom to fall out; but then they went on a 12 or 13 game streak - so much for that line of thinking. Yes there will be an adjustment. Other teams are picking up the defensive intensity; but if the C's can keep their ball movement going and keep spreading the love then see no reason they can't continue to all benefit from increased averages.