Could Perkins average 20-10 as a 1st/2nd option on a bad team?

[xmuscularghandix]

As a third option on offense i think he's definitely capable of 15-10. As a major player his minutes would jump up from 28PG to 38+PG and he'd always hit his rebounding numbers, but like you said the scoring wouldn't come as easy because of double teams.

I think the other important thing is if he became a 3rd option, and his scoring went up to about 15 points per game, his shooting percentage would likely plummet as well. 

He's shooting 65%, what would you consider plummeting?

[Chris]

As a third option on offense i think he's definitely capable of 15-10. As a major player his minutes would jump up from 28PG to 38+PG and he'd always hit his rebounding numbers, but like you said the scoring wouldn't come as easy because of double teams.

I think the other important thing is if he became a 3rd option, and his scoring went up to about 15 points per game, his shooting percentage would likely plummet as well. 

He's shooting 65%, what would you consider plummeting?

Down to about 50%.

He would go from being one of the most efficient offensive players in the NBA, to an average shooter for a big man. 

[BballTim]

20-10?  No.

However, I think Perk could be capable of 15/8 or something along those lines.  Also, I also don't think he's a guy that you can count on to be your leading option. 

  His per36 numbers right now are 16/10. Look at his offensive improvement over the last year or two and remember he's only 25. He probably won't do it but it's not as far-fetched as people seem to think.

Per 36 minutes are of limited utility here, because we don't know how Perk would react to being double-teamed, rather than being the guy who is often left open by other teams.

  First of all I'm skeptical that he'd get tons of double-teams. Giving him more shots won't turn him into Shaq. Also Perk isn't really left open by other teams. They don't leave the guy 5 feet from the basket unguarded in order to double PP or KG. He gets open shots when his man has to leave him to stop penetration which happens on other teams as well.

If he is a 20 point scorer, he WILL be facing double and triple teams.  I think you are underestimating how hard it is to average that many points as an interior scorer in the NBA.  There are a ton of guys who can average 12-14 points, if they are only given single coverage, and get 2-3+ wide open dunks per game because of the penetration and dish ability of their teammates.  But to take it to that next level is incredibly difficult, and only truly gifted offensive players are able to do it...and Perk is not a gifted offensive player.

  I think you're getting a little hung up on the numbers. If you just increase Perk's minutes to what you'd expect he'd, right now, be averaging at least 15 a game. Is his scoring another couple of baskets in 36 minutes going to cause defenses to change so drastically that Perk goes from being (supposedly) frequently unguarded to being triple teamed? Is there some magic threshold where, if you score a few points below it, opposing coahes forget about you completely, but if you score above it they make you the focal point of their defense?

[Roy Hobbs]

20-10?  No.

However, I think Perk could be capable of 15/8 or something along those lines.  Also, I also don't think he's a guy that you can count on to be your leading option. 

  His per36 numbers right now are 16/10. Look at his offensive improvement over the last year or two and remember he's only 25. He probably won't do it but it's not as far-fetched as people seem to think.

Per 36 minutes are of limited utility here, because we don't know how Perk would react to being double-teamed, rather than being the guy who is often left open by other teams.

  First of all I'm skeptical that he'd get tons of double-teams. Giving him more shots won't turn him into Shaq. Also Perk isn't really left open by other teams. They don't leave the guy 5 feet from the basket unguarded in order to double PP or KG. He gets open shots when his man has to leave him to stop penetration which happens on other teams as well.

If he is a 20 point scorer, he WILL be facing double and triple teams.  I think you are underestimating how hard it is to average that many points as an interior scorer in the NBA.  There are a ton of guys who can average 12-14 points, if they are only given single coverage, and get 2-3+ wide open dunks per game because of the penetration and dish ability of their teammates.  But to take it to that next level is incredibly difficult, and only truly gifted offensive players are able to do it...and Perk is not a gifted offensive player.

  I think you're getting a little hung up on the numbers. If you just increase Perk's minutes to what you'd expect he'd, right now, be averaging at least 15 a game. Is his scoring another couple of baskets in 36 minutes going to cause defenses to change so drastically that Perk goes from being (supposedly) frequently unguarded to being triple teamed? Is there some magic threshold where, if you score a few points below it, opposing coahes forget about you completely, but if you score above it they make you the focal point of their defense?

Right now, Perk can't really be double-teamed.  In fact, the very reason that he's scoring like he is is because he's in single coverage, or getting easy feeds from the penetration of our star players.

However, if he was the best or second-best player on a team, as this thread supposes, then of course other teams would double him.  If the other three or four starters are less offensively talented than Perk, that means that other teams would gear their defense toward stopping the best player(s) on the floor.

[the_Bird]

I love Perkins as much or more than anyone...  but it he's the first or second option on a team, that team's winning fifteen games.

10 rebounds, no problem.  If he's playing 35-36 minutes, that happens almost automatically.  The points?  15-16 would seem to be a reasonable upper limit, the big men who can consistently score 20-ish PPG even on bad teams have much more of an offensive game.  I mean, Big Al's not even scoring 20PPG this year on a bad team, and we all know how good an offensive player he is.

[BballTim]

20-10?  No.

However, I think Perk could be capable of 15/8 or something along those lines.  Also, I also don't think he's a guy that you can count on to be your leading option. 

  His per36 numbers right now are 16/10. Look at his offensive improvement over the last year or two and remember he's only 25. He probably won't do it but it's not as far-fetched as people seem to think.

Per 36 minutes are of limited utility here, because we don't know how Perk would react to being double-teamed, rather than being the guy who is often left open by other teams.

  First of all I'm skeptical that he'd get tons of double-teams. Giving him more shots won't turn him into Shaq. Also Perk isn't really left open by other teams. They don't leave the guy 5 feet from the basket unguarded in order to double PP or KG. He gets open shots when his man has to leave him to stop penetration which happens on other teams as well.

If he is a 20 point scorer, he WILL be facing double and triple teams.  I think you are underestimating how hard it is to average that many points as an interior scorer in the NBA.  There are a ton of guys who can average 12-14 points, if they are only given single coverage, and get 2-3+ wide open dunks per game because of the penetration and dish ability of their teammates.  But to take it to that next level is incredibly difficult, and only truly gifted offensive players are able to do it...and Perk is not a gifted offensive player.

  I think you're getting a little hung up on the numbers. If you just increase Perk's minutes to what you'd expect he'd, right now, be averaging at least 15 a game. Is his scoring another couple of baskets in 36 minutes going to cause defenses to change so drastically that Perk goes from being (supposedly) frequently unguarded to being triple teamed? Is there some magic threshold where, if you score a few points below it, opposing coahes forget about you completely, but if you score above it they make you the focal point of their defense?

Right now, Perk can't really be double-teamed.  In fact, the very reason that he's scoring like he is is because he's in single coverage, or getting easy feeds from the penetration of our star players.

However, if he was the best or second-best player on a team, as this thread supposes, then of course other teams would double him.  If the other three or four starters are less offensively talented than Perk, that means that other teams would gear their defense toward stopping the best player(s) on the floor.

  Sorry, I wasn't imagining a team where all of the other starters were worse offensive players than Perk. Just that he'd be a bigger part of the offense. I was just assuming that he'd play another 6-8 minutes a game and end up with another 5-6 shots a game. I was thinking kind of like David Lee. I don't think he's more skilled on the offensive end than Perk. I don't think he's as good, where you can give him the ball on the block and count on his beating the opposing center. I don't think that he's the main focus of opposing defenses, seeing tons of double and triple teams. And yet he's a 19 ppg scorer.

[xmuscularghandix]

As a third option on offense i think he's definitely capable of 15-10. As a major player his minutes would jump up from 28PG to 38+PG and he'd always hit his rebounding numbers, but like you said the scoring wouldn't come as easy because of double teams.

I think the other important thing is if he became a 3rd option, and his scoring went up to about 15 points per game, his shooting percentage would likely plummet as well. 

He's shooting 65%, what would you consider plummeting?

Down to about 50%.

He would go from being one of the most efficient offensive players in the NBA, to an average shooter for a big man. 

Agreed.

[Roy Hobbs]

20-10?  No.

However, I think Perk could be capable of 15/8 or something along those lines.  Also, I also don't think he's a guy that you can count on to be your leading option. 

  His per36 numbers right now are 16/10. Look at his offensive improvement over the last year or two and remember he's only 25. He probably won't do it but it's not as far-fetched as people seem to think.

Per 36 minutes are of limited utility here, because we don't know how Perk would react to being double-teamed, rather than being the guy who is often left open by other teams.

  First of all I'm skeptical that he'd get tons of double-teams. Giving him more shots won't turn him into Shaq. Also Perk isn't really left open by other teams. They don't leave the guy 5 feet from the basket unguarded in order to double PP or KG. He gets open shots when his man has to leave him to stop penetration which happens on other teams as well.

If he is a 20 point scorer, he WILL be facing double and triple teams.  I think you are underestimating how hard it is to average that many points as an interior scorer in the NBA.  There are a ton of guys who can average 12-14 points, if they are only given single coverage, and get 2-3+ wide open dunks per game because of the penetration and dish ability of their teammates.  But to take it to that next level is incredibly difficult, and only truly gifted offensive players are able to do it...and Perk is not a gifted offensive player.

  I think you're getting a little hung up on the numbers. If you just increase Perk's minutes to what you'd expect he'd, right now, be averaging at least 15 a game. Is his scoring another couple of baskets in 36 minutes going to cause defenses to change so drastically that Perk goes from being (supposedly) frequently unguarded to being triple teamed? Is there some magic threshold where, if you score a few points below it, opposing coahes forget about you completely, but if you score above it they make you the focal point of their defense?

Right now, Perk can't really be double-teamed.  In fact, the very reason that he's scoring like he is is because he's in single coverage, or getting easy feeds from the penetration of our star players.

However, if he was the best or second-best player on a team, as this thread supposes, then of course other teams would double him.  If the other three or four starters are less offensively talented than Perk, that means that other teams would gear their defense toward stopping the best player(s) on the floor.

  Sorry, I wasn't imagining a team where all of the other starters were worse offensive players than Perk. Just that he'd be a bigger part of the offense. I was just assuming that he'd play another 6-8 minutes a game and end up with another 5-6 shots a game. I was thinking kind of like David Lee. I don't think he's more skilled on the offensive end than Perk. I don't think he's as good, where you can give him the ball on the block and count on his beating the opposing center. I don't think that he's the main focus of opposing defenses, seeing tons of double and triple teams. And yet he's a 19 ppg scorer.

Two things:

1) We were asked to imagine Perk as a 1st or 2nd option.  By definition, I would assume that makes him the most or second most talented offensive player on the squad;

and

2) David Lee has a much more versatile offensive game than Perk.  He's actually a pretty decent shooter, and has much more range than Perk.

[Fafnir]

As a third option on offense i think he's definitely capable of 15-10. As a major player his minutes would jump up from 28PG to 38+PG and he'd always hit his rebounding numbers, but like you said the scoring wouldn't come as easy because of double teams.

I think the other important thing is if he became a 3rd option, and his scoring went up to about 15 points per game, his shooting percentage would likely plummet as well. 

He's shooting 65%, what would you consider plummeting?

Down to about 50%.

He would go from being one of the most efficient offensive players in the NBA, to an average shooter for a big man. 

Agreed.

To be fair Perks shooting well above his career average at this point. He's efficient but he's likely to have his percentage go down as the year progresses.

[BballTim]

20-10?  No.

However, I think Perk could be capable of 15/8 or something along those lines.  Also, I also don't think he's a guy that you can count on to be your leading option. 

  His per36 numbers right now are 16/10. Look at his offensive improvement over the last year or two and remember he's only 25. He probably won't do it but it's not as far-fetched as people seem to think.

Per 36 minutes are of limited utility here, because we don't know how Perk would react to being double-teamed, rather than being the guy who is often left open by other teams.

  First of all I'm skeptical that he'd get tons of double-teams. Giving him more shots won't turn him into Shaq. Also Perk isn't really left open by other teams. They don't leave the guy 5 feet from the basket unguarded in order to double PP or KG. He gets open shots when his man has to leave him to stop penetration which happens on other teams as well.

If he is a 20 point scorer, he WILL be facing double and triple teams.  I think you are underestimating how hard it is to average that many points as an interior scorer in the NBA.  There are a ton of guys who can average 12-14 points, if they are only given single coverage, and get 2-3+ wide open dunks per game because of the penetration and dish ability of their teammates.  But to take it to that next level is incredibly difficult, and only truly gifted offensive players are able to do it...and Perk is not a gifted offensive player.

  I think you're getting a little hung up on the numbers. If you just increase Perk's minutes to what you'd expect he'd, right now, be averaging at least 15 a game. Is his scoring another couple of baskets in 36 minutes going to cause defenses to change so drastically that Perk goes from being (supposedly) frequently unguarded to being triple teamed? Is there some magic threshold where, if you score a few points below it, opposing coahes forget about you completely, but if you score above it they make you the focal point of their defense?

Right now, Perk can't really be double-teamed.  In fact, the very reason that he's scoring like he is is because he's in single coverage, or getting easy feeds from the penetration of our star players.

However, if he was the best or second-best player on a team, as this thread supposes, then of course other teams would double him.  If the other three or four starters are less offensively talented than Perk, that means that other teams would gear their defense toward stopping the best player(s) on the floor.

  Sorry, I wasn't imagining a team where all of the other starters were worse offensive players than Perk. Just that he'd be a bigger part of the offense. I was just assuming that he'd play another 6-8 minutes a game and end up with another 5-6 shots a game. I was thinking kind of like David Lee. I don't think he's more skilled on the offensive end than Perk. I don't think he's as good, where you can give him the ball on the block and count on his beating the opposing center. I don't think that he's the main focus of opposing defenses, seeing tons of double and triple teams. And yet he's a 19 ppg scorer.

Two things:

1) We were asked to imagine Perk as a 1st or 2nd option.  By definition, I would assume that makes him the most or second most talented offensive player on the squad;

and

2) David Lee has a much more versatile offensive game than Perk.  He's actually a pretty decent shooter, and has much more range than Perk.

1) I didn't take it quite that way. I was thinking more shots taken. If you have decent shooters teams won't necessarily double on Perk. If they don't double him then he's very effective.

2) More versatile and better range doesn't necessarily mean mor eeffective. Look at DH, who would be lucky to hit the backboard if he tried some of the shots Perk takes. But regardless, are you saying that Lee is frequently double and triple teamed? That stopping him is the focus of most opposing defenses?

[Overrated]

I don't think there's a team in the league bad enough for Perk to be a first or second option.

If there were a time for Perk to put up big numbers, it would be right now because of the injuries the Celtics have had. He's capable of 15 and 10, but 20 and 10 is a stretch. He really needs to work on not turning the ball over, though. Too many bad picks, dropped passes, etc.

[scoop]

I don't think there's a team in the league bad enough for Perk to be a first or second option.

If there were a time for Perk to put up big numbers, it would be right now because of the injuries the Celtics have had. He's capable of 15 and 10, but 20 and 10 is a stretch. He really needs to work on not turning the ball over, though. Too many bad picks, dropped passes, etc.

Agreed.