Salary implications this year and next.

[nickagneta]

I think you shouldn't assume that Daniels will sign for two years at the LLE. At most, a player option, but he will play this year and try to get paid next year... depending on how he plays this year, he'll probably take the bulk of the MLE next year.

I assumed he's signing for two years. Whether the second year is his option or the teams is irrelevant to me. I doubt the team would go through the trouble of trying to do a sign and trade to get him more money and years and then not give him two years. The logic there just makes no sense to me.

The option year should be very relevant, particularly if you're trying to analyze how next year's offseason is going to play out. It's not about the team not offering a second year, it's about Daniels wanting to sign a 2 million contract per for two years, which his highly unlikely. He'll have a player option just in case he gets injured or something, but his situation will be quite similar to that of James Posey. We'll have to use the MLE to keep him next year, and that should be quite relevant to your interest as far as I'm concerned.

I agree. I think it's an under 5% chance that he is back with us at LLE money next year.

I think you are both grossly over evaluating his open market value. It's just not there for much more than what he would get here at $1.99 million per.

Considering that Ainge was trying to sign and trade him in order to give him MORE money and years says to me that you're underestimating how much Daniels is worth in the open market.

No it says that Danny was trying like hell to get rid of someone on this team and wanted to lock him up longer than 2 years. Is $500000 more per year for maybe a three year deal really all that different in value? I don't think so. It's not like he was trying to sign him for 5 years and $30 million.

The proposed trades we've been hearing all summer was of TA + Pruitt + Walker/Giddens. That's hardly $500,000 more, especially when you consider the possibility of year to year raises.

Where exactly have you been listening to these rumors?

Indiana had one spot open on their roster and then none. The only way that more than one player was going to I ndiana was the pure speculation of people outside of the negotiations that speculated that Pruitt might go and then get cut before his contract got guaranteed. But those inside knew that wasn't happeing because Bird had free agent dealings going on with Hollis and Watson. The only player ever really being mentioned with any certainty going to Indiana was Allen in a one on one trade and that became impossible because Bird didn't want him. Daniels pricetag was never, ever, ever reaching higher than $2.5 million per year or so, about the same Tony Allen was making.

Anything you are reading into that or speculated on that has Daniels numbers higher than that is thoroughly off.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think you shouldn't assume that Daniels will sign for two years at the LLE. At most, a player option, but he will play this year and try to get paid next year... depending on how he plays this year, he'll probably take the bulk of the MLE next year.

I assumed he's signing for two years. Whether the second year is his option or the teams is irrelevant to me. I doubt the team would go through the trouble of trying to do a sign and trade to get him more money and years and then not give him two years. The logic there just makes no sense to me.

The option year should be very relevant, particularly if you're trying to analyze how next year's offseason is going to play out. It's not about the team not offering a second year, it's about Daniels wanting to sign a 2 million contract per for two years, which his highly unlikely. He'll have a player option just in case he gets injured or something, but his situation will be quite similar to that of James Posey. We'll have to use the MLE to keep him next year, and that should be quite relevant to your interest as far as I'm concerned.

I agree. I think it's an under 5% chance that he is back with us at LLE money next year.

I think you are both grossly over evaluating his open market value. It's just not there for much more than what he would get here at $1.99 million per.

Considering that Ainge was trying to sign and trade him in order to give him MORE money and years says to me that you're underestimating how much Daniels is worth in the open market.

No it says that Danny was trying like hell to get rid of someone on this team and wanted to lock him up longer than 2 years. Is $500000 more per year for maybe a three year deal really all that different in value? I don't think so. It's not like he was trying to sign him for 5 years and $30 million.

The proposed trades we've been hearing all summer was of TA + Pruitt + Walker/Giddens. That's hardly $500,000 more, especially when you consider the possibility of year to year raises.

Where exactly have you been listening to these rumors?

Linked quite a few times here on Celticsblog front page. I think the Boston Herald and Chad Ford made mention of it in some shape or another. Who knows who else... I think some rumors came from some Indiana sources too.

Indiana had one spot open on their roster and then none. The only way that more than one player was going to I ndiana was the pure speculation of people outside of the negotiations that speculated that Pruitt might go and then get cut before his contract got guaranteed.

Agree that it's pure speculation (most rumors we read are), how's that different than what you're doing? Rumors of TA + Pruitt and/or Walker went on for quite a bit.

That aside, the 15 player restrinction at this point is inconsequential. Players have to be cut by the start of the season. The Celts could've easily sent some cash over to help if needed be.

But those inside knew that wasn't happeing because Bird had free agent dealings going on with Hollis and Watson. The only player ever really being mentioned with any certainty going to Indiana was Allen in a one on one trade and that became impossible because Bird didn't want him. Daniels pricetag was never, ever, ever reaching higher than $2.5 million per year or so, about the same Tony Allen was making.

If we could've had Tony for a one on one deal with Daniels of course we would've done it. Who wouldn't? The important part of the above rumors/speculations was about Ainge willingness to go above that if needed be. TA alone was never going to get it done, Ainge knows that, everyone knows that.

Anything you are reading into that or speculated on that has Daniels numbers higher than that is thoroughly off.

That just a bit absurd. A dude that has been making about 5 million a year, coming off his best season scoring 14 points a game, of decent age and you think he can't get more than than 2.5 million? We just gave Baby 3 million a year for a lesser role.

Maybe particularly this year he wouldn't reach that target (I still think he could've find a suitor in the 3-4 million range), but that doesn't mean that's his value. He's certainly not a 2 million dollar player. Teams were unwilling to spend this year, and the ones willing to spend have limited resources... and the biggest influence on that was teams looking forward to 2010.

And in conclusion, that's what important to our discussion. Not what Daniels would make this year, but what he's worth going forward, if you think that Daniels will lock himself making 2 million a year for the next two years, then you have to think that Daniels is way more generous than I would ever belive him to be.

Can I assume then that Ainge wouldn't have traded TA + Pruitt for Daniels accoring to what your pricetag for Daniels is?

[mgent]

I think you shouldn't assume that Daniels will sign for two years at the LLE. At most, a player option, but he will play this year and try to get paid next year... depending on how he plays this year, he'll probably take the bulk of the MLE next year.

I assumed he's signing for two years. Whether the second year is his option or the teams is irrelevant to me. I doubt the team would go through the trouble of trying to do a sign and trade to get him more money and years and then not give him two years. The logic there just makes no sense to me.

The option year should be very relevant, particularly if you're trying to analyze how next year's offseason is going to play out. It's not about the team not offering a second year, it's about Daniels wanting to sign a 2 million contract per for two years, which his highly unlikely. He'll have a player option just in case he gets injured or something, but his situation will be quite similar to that of James Posey.

How? I just don't see that as he is much younger than Posey, has no championship experience to fall back on and will probably never be in the same demand as Posey. He isn't nearly the talent Posey is. How is his situation going to be similar.

Also, because we are use the LLE that means we don't get one next year. I doubt the Celtics allow him the opportunity to walk this year while not having the LLE next year to use to replace him. For that they just may as well throw him a vet minimum contract as the difference in Daniels pocket is just not that much.

To me its irrelevant. If he's here he's here 2 years. I'm confident that's the way Danny has arranged it. Besides, if he didn't, big deal, it's not like we have cap room next year or are going to have any more options of replacing him other than the MLE and vet mins and trades.

Let's see. More efficient scorer. Can play 3 positions. Taking a pay cut to play with the Celtics this year. In playing about 4 minutes per game less for his career, he's scored more per game than Posey. He's arguably coming off his best season, scoring almost 14 points per game in 31 minutes of play.

Yes, Posey has skills that Daniels doesn't have, like 3point shooting, and a much better defender (we'll see how Posey's legs keep holding up). Just the same, Daniels is a much better ball handler and slasher.

So let's not sell Daniels short, he's been making good money since entering the league. And him being younger than Posey is not to be looked at as a negative.

The reason I brought up Posey was because he took less money to play with us one year with a player option, and in order to keep him the next we needed to use the MLE to do it. Daniels will be the similar in that regard. I could've used House as an example just as well, but Daniel's value is closer to that of Posey.

I don't think ball handling and slashing cancels out skills like good team and 1 on 1 defense and good 3pt shooting.
Not only is Posey more talented, but I think he fits into our team way better than Daniels ever will.  The SG position is already clogged, and I just can't see Daniels backing up Paul like Posey did.
I also don't agree that Daniels is much more versatile than Posey.  Posey can naturally play the 3 or the 2.  Daniels is a 2 who can sometimes play the 3 (undersized) and happens to be able to handle the ball.  I wouldn't say he can easily backup all 3 positions.
Daniels could be a 3-4 million dollar player, but not 6 like Posey.

[nickagneta]

Budweiser, you are reading way too much into an inefficient scoring average that blossomed during a contract year. Way too much. His true shooting percentage was not good. His assists per 40 were way lower. His defense is still mediocre at best. he still is a lousy three point shooter and even bad outside shooter as a whole.

He scored more because he passed less and shot a bunch more(almost 5 shots more per game) on a really bad team. Take away his 13.9 PPG and make it his averge before that which was closer to 9 PPG and you have Tony Allen who last year got.....$2.5 million per year for two years. And that was BEFORE the economy tanked.

Jamario Moon, a similar and much, much better player signed for $2.75 million this year on a 3 year/$8.9 million contract.

Anthony Parker, another similar but better player, signed for less than Moon.

Matt Barnes, another similar and better player, signed for 2 years at $1.6 million per year.

You are just not in the right ballpark as to where Daniels value lies. He will be here 2 years for the LLE. And that will be much more than fair compensation in a league with dwindling profits and salary caps.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Budweiser, you are reading way too much into an inefficient scoring average that blossomed during a contract year. Way too much. His true shooting percentage was not good. His assists per 40 were way lower. His defense is still mediocre at best. he still is a lousy three point shooter and even bad outside shooter as a whole.

He scored more because he passed less and shot a bunch more(almost 5 shots more per game) on a really bad team. Take away his 13.9 PPG and make it his averge before that which was closer to 9 PPG and you have Tony Allen who last year got.....$2.5 million per year for two years. And that was BEFORE the economy tanked.

Jamario Moon, a similar and much, much better player signed for $2.75 million this year on a 3 year/$8.9 million contract.

Anthony Parker, another similar but better player, signed for less than Moon.

Matt Barnes, another similar and better player, signed for 2 years at $1.6 million per year.

You are just not in the right ballpark as to where Daniels value lies. He will be here 2 years for the LLE. And that will be much more than fair compensation in a league with dwindling profits and salary caps.

I disagree completely in your assesment of your comparables. I think Anthony Parker is a complete steal for the money he got though.

Something that is being ignored here is not the effect of the economy as much as teams preparing themselves for 2010 and not willing ot give out multi-year contracts. And someone like Jamario, who was restricted, that's the only type of offer he can get.

Matt Barnes a better player? Come on.

Jamario Moon? I can see why someone might think he's better, but Jamario is not fooling me.

All of these guys would've made better money next year, once teams realize that all their cap positioning for next year trying to land LeBron and Wade was for nothing.

As for comparing them to each other, the players are quite different. All of the ones you mentioned have become more of jumpshooters and do little of the ballhandling responsibilities. Marquis Daniels is an on-ball player and slasher.

As far a true shooting percentage goes, I really don't care much for that stat. All that it tells me is if someone is a better shooter than another. To me, a missed shot usually leads to a waste of a possession, and FG% tells me that.

Among SGs, Daniels was 12th in the league in FG%... although he might not be the most productive in all the shots he takes, at least he's not wasting possessions by missing shots after shots.

Daniels' other great year came with Dallas... and it was NOT in a contract year. Actually, that's really his best year. As for 5 more shots? How about playing 11 more minutes per game?

[nickagneta]

Budweiser, you are reading way too much into an inefficient scoring average that blossomed during a contract year. Way too much. His true shooting percentage was not good. His assists per 40 were way lower. His defense is still mediocre at best. he still is a lousy three point shooter and even bad outside shooter as a whole.

He scored more because he passed less and shot a bunch more(almost 5 shots more per game) on a really bad team. Take away his 13.9 PPG and make it his averge before that which was closer to 9 PPG and you have Tony Allen who last year got.....$2.5 million per year for two years. And that was BEFORE the economy tanked.

Jamario Moon, a similar and much, much better player signed for $2.75 million this year on a 3 year/$8.9 million contract.

Anthony Parker, another similar but better player, signed for less than Moon.

Matt Barnes, another similar and better player, signed for 2 years at $1.6 million per year.

You are just not in the right ballpark as to where Daniels value lies. He will be here 2 years for the LLE. And that will be much more than fair compensation in a league with dwindling profits and salary caps.

I disagree completely in your assesment of your comparables. I think Anthony Parker is a complete steal for the money he got though.

Something that is being ignored here is not the effect of the economy as much as teams preparing themselves for 2010 and not willing ot give out multi-year contracts. And someone like Jamario, who was restricted, that's the only type of offer he can get.

Matt Barnes a better player? Come on.

Jamario Moon? I can see why someone might think he's better, but Jamario is not fooling me.

All of these guys would've made better money next year, once teams realize that all their cap positioning for next year trying to land LeBron and Wade was for nothing.

As for comparing them to each other, the players are quite different. All of the ones you mentioned have become more of jumpshooters and do little of the ballhandling responsibilities. Marquis Daniels is an on-ball player and slasher.

As far a true shooting percentage goes, I really don't care much for that stat. All that it tells me is if someone is a better shooter than another. To me, a missed shot usually leads to a waste of a possession, and FG% tells me that.

Among SGs, Daniels was 12th in the league in FG%... although he might not be the most productive in all the shots he takes, at least he's not wasting possessions by missing shots after shots.

Daniels' other great year came with Dallas... and it was NOT in a contract year. Actually, that's really his best year. As for 5 more shots? How about playing 11 more minutes per game?

He played 50% more minutes and took 80% more shots.  He shot almost 15% more often than he did the year before. That's a lot more shots in NBA terms.

Also, TS% is important because it incorporate FT% and 3PTFG% all in one. It gives you an accurate idea of just how good and efficient a scorer and shooter a player is. Daniels is neither.

Also, it doesn't matter what Daniels is worth next year it matters what someone will pay him now to play next year. You are worth what someone is willing to offer you and what you are willing to accept. I guess will will see exactly what Daniels is worth.
 

[BudweiserCeltic]

Oh yeah, we will see MARK MY WORDS!!!! lol