Pelicans (8-31) at Celtics (27-11) Game #39 1/12/25

[keevsnick]

I'd really like to know how many "potential assists" Tatum has every night that are not actually counted as assists due to guys missing open shots. He just got KP and Jrue two wide open threes on two of the last three possessions, and they bricked them both.

Feels like a running theme during this slump - lots of missed opportunities due to the shooting slump, leading to it being much easier to load up on JT.

NBA.com has Tatum with 5.5 assists per game and 11.3 potential assists. So double the amount.

Not too different for other players. Jaylen has 4.7 assists and 8.7 potential assists. D White 4.4 assists and 8.1 potential assists. Jrue 3.9 assists and 7.4 potential assists. So nearly double but slightly less for all those guys. Pritchard 3.3 assists and 6.3 potential assists.

Looking at some of the top guys across the league.

Trae = 12 assists 21 potential assists
Jokic = 10 assists 16.7 potential assists
Cade = 9.3 assists 15.7 potential assists
Haliburton = 8.7 assists 14.9 potential assists
LeBron = 8.8 assists 16.1 potential assists

Harden = 7.9 assists 13.2 potential assists
Luka = 7.8 assists 12.9 potential assists
Morant = 7.7 assists 13 potential assists

No guys getting double potential assists against assists.

I will go further down to see guys with lower assist numbers.

S Barnes = 6.5 assists 13 potential assists
Fox = 6.2 assists 11.9 potential assists
Giannis = 6.1 assists 11.3 potential assists

A lot of guys around 6 assists / 10 potential assists.

Schroder = 5.9 assists 12 potential assists
Shai = 5.9 assists 12.4 potential assists

F Wagner = 5.7 assists 11.2 potential assists
Draymond = 5.6 assists 10.4 potential assists
Sengun = 5.0 assists 10.1 potential assists

Franz almost identical to Tatum.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=0&dir=D&sort=AST

The C's take, by far, the most three pointers in the league. Since three pointers are a lower percentage shot you will naturally convert a lower percentage of your potential assists on a team that shoots a ton of threes. Meanwhile guys like Jokic or Young likely generate a lot more of their assists getting guys buckets at the rim, which are higher percentage shots.

[Who]

I'd really like to know how many "potential assists" Tatum has every night that are not actually counted as assists due to guys missing open shots. He just got KP and Jrue two wide open threes on two of the last three possessions, and they bricked them both.

Feels like a running theme during this slump - lots of missed opportunities due to the shooting slump, leading to it being much easier to load up on JT.

NBA.com has Tatum with 5.5 assists per game and 11.3 potential assists. So double the amount.

Not too different for other players. Jaylen has 4.7 assists and 8.7 potential assists. D White 4.4 assists and 8.1 potential assists. Jrue 3.9 assists and 7.4 potential assists. So nearly double but slightly less for all those guys. Pritchard 3.3 assists and 6.3 potential assists.

Looking at some of the top guys across the league.

Trae = 12 assists 21 potential assists
Jokic = 10 assists 16.7 potential assists
Cade = 9.3 assists 15.7 potential assists
Haliburton = 8.7 assists 14.9 potential assists
LeBron = 8.8 assists 16.1 potential assists

Harden = 7.9 assists 13.2 potential assists
Luka = 7.8 assists 12.9 potential assists
Morant = 7.7 assists 13 potential assists

No guys getting double potential assists against assists.

I will go further down to see guys with lower assist numbers.

S Barnes = 6.5 assists 13 potential assists
Fox = 6.2 assists 11.9 potential assists
Giannis = 6.1 assists 11.3 potential assists

A lot of guys around 6 assists / 10 potential assists.

Schroder = 5.9 assists 12 potential assists
Shai = 5.9 assists 12.4 potential assists

F Wagner = 5.7 assists 11.2 potential assists
Draymond = 5.6 assists 10.4 potential assists
Sengun = 5.0 assists 10.1 potential assists

Franz almost identical to Tatum.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=0&dir=D&sort=AST

The C's take, by far, the most three pointers in the league. Since three pointers are a lower percentage shot you will naturally convert a lower percentage of your potential assists on a team that shoots a ton of threes. Meanwhile guys like Jokic or Young likely generate a lot more of their assists getting guys buckets at the rim, which are higher percentage shots.

That is an interesting explanation. Makes sense.

[Vermont Green]

Another way to look at it, the Celtics missed 57 shots, NOP missed 46 shots.  We had 12 more ORebs.  TOVs were 12 BOS vs. 10 NOP but they got 17 pts off turnovers, we got 4.  We made up for that with 2nd chance points (23 to 10).

Another thing that stood out to me, Horford and Kornet together were +13 in 14 minutes, Horford and Porzingis together were -12 in 9 minutes.  Last season, Porzingis seems to cause a spark every time he was on the floor.  This season, very much the opposite.  Almost every player had a worse +/- with Porzingis than without him in this game (the exception was Holiday who was +3 in 31 minutes with Porzingis).  Another specific example is Tatum was -9 in 32 min with Porzingis and 0 in 4 minutes without him.  These are awkward sample sizes  so only go so far, but still telling I think.

[Kuberski33]

The Celtics are in a tough spot. They are a first time defending champion trying to plod their way through the regular season and the playoffs are no where in site at present. Their defense has been off for too long, though they can still turn it on for stretches when they need to - an example being how they defended the final play of the game.

I think its just focus and the team having trouble getting up for a lot of these seemingly routine games.  Porzingis has been poor lately and for the most part they've gotten nothing out of Houser.  Maybe Holliday is starting to show his age as well.

Regarding that, Joe seems to be recognizing it. PP is getting more and more key minutes - however he remains a defensive liability vs good teams because he can be attacked in ways that White and Holiday cannot.  JB as many have noted has been a little off.

It's not panic time yet - too early in the season. But Porzingis needs to play better.  Scal made what I thought was a decent point that in the effort to establish Porzingis, Jaylen seems to be less aggressive. With KP right now, I'm starting to see more of the guy I didn't particularly like as a player pre-Washington. Plus every time he tries to play with any force you're afraid he'll get hurt again.

I am also a bit concerned about Hauser. He doesn't offer enough to make up for nights his shot isn't falling and there seems to be more and more those this season.

[keevsnick]

I'd really like to know how many "potential assists" Tatum has every night that are not actually counted as assists due to guys missing open shots. He just got KP and Jrue two wide open threes on two of the last three possessions, and they bricked them both.

Feels like a running theme during this slump - lots of missed opportunities due to the shooting slump, leading to it being much easier to load up on JT.

NBA.com has Tatum with 5.5 assists per game and 11.3 potential assists. So double the amount.

Not too different for other players. Jaylen has 4.7 assists and 8.7 potential assists. D White 4.4 assists and 8.1 potential assists. Jrue 3.9 assists and 7.4 potential assists. So nearly double but slightly less for all those guys. Pritchard 3.3 assists and 6.3 potential assists.

Looking at some of the top guys across the league.

Trae = 12 assists 21 potential assists
Jokic = 10 assists 16.7 potential assists
Cade = 9.3 assists 15.7 potential assists
Haliburton = 8.7 assists 14.9 potential assists
LeBron = 8.8 assists 16.1 potential assists

Harden = 7.9 assists 13.2 potential assists
Luka = 7.8 assists 12.9 potential assists
Morant = 7.7 assists 13 potential assists

No guys getting double potential assists against assists.

I will go further down to see guys with lower assist numbers.

S Barnes = 6.5 assists 13 potential assists
Fox = 6.2 assists 11.9 potential assists
Giannis = 6.1 assists 11.3 potential assists

A lot of guys around 6 assists / 10 potential assists.

Schroder = 5.9 assists 12 potential assists
Shai = 5.9 assists 12.4 potential assists

F Wagner = 5.7 assists 11.2 potential assists
Draymond = 5.6 assists 10.4 potential assists
Sengun = 5.0 assists 10.1 potential assists

Franz almost identical to Tatum.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=0&dir=D&sort=AST

The C's take, by far, the most three pointers in the league. Since three pointers are a lower percentage shot you will naturally convert a lower percentage of your potential assists on a team that shoots a ton of threes. Meanwhile guys like Jokic or Young likely generate a lot more of their assists getting guys buckets at the rim, which are higher percentage shots.

That is an interesting explanation. Makes sense.

To be clear I don't KNOW that is the right explanation, it's just my best guess. To my memory you don't see Tatum throwing a bunch of alley oops out of the pick and roll or dropping the ball off inside to a cutting player for a dunk the way Trae or Jokic do. Most of his potential assists come off kick out on drives for threes, because most everyone he plays with (other than Jaylen), is a three-point heavy shooter.

But he's probably also been a been a bit unlucky as well.

[Phantom255x]

I remember Tatum had A TON of potential assists in the OKC game too, but only finished with 1 because most of the team especially in the 2nd half were just bricking shots

[Phantom255x]

I forgot we had a game tonight when I saw no GDT

Is there no GDT tonight? Hope all is well with FLCeltsFan (it says she was last active 3+ days ago so idk)