Are NBA games pre-determined?

[LilRip]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

To me, it proves that there's a loud minority that looks externally when things get tough. The Celtics 100% lost that game (down 30 going into the 4th), and yet people want to focus on the bad officiating (no argument coming from me- the refs sucked).

Yup. "The refs sucked" and "the bad reffing didn't matter" can both be true for a given game.

I agree with this. Overall, the officiating doesn't impact the outcome. Basketball players determine the outcome. Sure, there have been horrible calls that have affected outcomes. I just don't believe that Silver is sitting there picking winners and losers, and subsequently, picking crews to support this mission.

Same boat except I’d like to qualify the impact of officiating and the outcome. In a close game, one or two bad calls could’ve absolutely decided that game. However, for the most part, bad officiating is only another “negative stat” that needs to get overcome. Its like turnovers.

I think GSW got a favorable whistle in Gm2 and collectively, maybe “3 turnovers” worth or something. But C’s already had 18 and so having 21 vs GSW’s 10? That level of adversity is almost insurmountable.

It's a bit more nuanced than you guys make it out to be. If Green gets correctly called for his tackle of Grant, he could get less physical. If Brown isn't called for a foul where he didn't touch a shooter, Brown could have stayed in the game and stayed hot. If Green is correctly called for a 2nd tech and kicked out of the game before the half, the entire third quarter could have been different.

It's not just, look the # fouls were the same at games end. It's not just the refs were bad. It's they were bad in such a way as to change the course of the game at certain times.

That matters. Of course, that can be all blamed on incompetence rather than pre-determinism, but it sure seems fishy, especially when the refs stop the game to review a technical foul they call and reverse it(which is the very 1st time I have ever seen that in my 40+ years watching basketball) and then a former ref and goes on TV and admits deferential treatment for players(and by extension, teams).

While I don’t disagree with you, because those were all terrible calls with no compensation, I don’t think those calls were a 30-point swing. Now, if C’s lost by 3-5? Then I would think the refs robbed the C’s.

As an aside: I don’t think they ever called the double T and then afterwards reversed it. They blew the whistles to de escalate, reviewed the play and decided no punishments. It was Jordan Poole’s rescinded T which was extremely suspect (and which also stopped the C’s fast break). Absolutely inexcusable whistle by Zarba

[slamtheking]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

To me, it proves that there's a loud minority that looks externally when things get tough. The Celtics 100% lost that game (down 30 going into the 4th), and yet people want to focus on the bad officiating (no argument coming from me- the refs sucked).

Yup. "The refs sucked" and "the bad reffing didn't matter" can both be true for a given game.

I agree with this. Overall, the officiating doesn't impact the outcome. Basketball players determine the outcome. Sure, there have been horrible calls that have affected outcomes. I just don't believe that Silver is sitting there picking winners and losers, and subsequently, picking crews to support this mission.

Same boat except I’d like to qualify the impact of officiating and the outcome. In a close game, one or two bad calls could’ve absolutely decided that game. However, for the most part, bad officiating is only another “negative stat” that needs to get overcome. Its like turnovers.

I think GSW got a favorable whistle in Gm2 and collectively, maybe “3 turnovers” worth or something. But C’s already had 18 and so having 21 vs GSW’s 10? That level of adversity is almost insurmountable.

It's a bit more nuanced than you guys make it out to be. If Green gets correctly called for his tackle of Grant, he could get less physical. If Brown isn't called for a foul where he didn't touch a shooter, Brown could have stayed in the game and stayed hot. If Green is correctly called for a 2nd tech and kicked out of the game before the half, the entire third quarter could have been different.

It's not just, look the # fouls were the same at games end. It's not just the refs were bad. It's they were bad in such a way as to change the course of the game at certain times.

That matters. Of course, that can be all blamed on incompetence rather than pre-determinism, but it sure seems fishy, especially when the refs stop the game to review a technical foul they call and reverse it(which is the very 1st time I have ever seen that in my 40+ years watching basketball) and then a former ref and goes on TV and admits deferential treatment for players(and by extension, teams).

While I don’t disagree with you, because those were all terrible calls with no compensation, I don’t think those calls were a 30-point swing. Now, if C’s lost by 3-5? Then I would think the refs robbed the C’s.

As an aside: I don’t think they ever called the double T and then afterwards reversed it. They blew the whistles to de escalate, reviewed the play and decided no punishments. It was Jordan Poole’s rescinded T which was extremely suspect (and which also stopped the C’s fast break). Absolutely inexcusable whistle by Zarba

need to look at it not in terms of the final result but in terms of the game situation at the time of those officiating issues.  If the game were called better (at least more accurately or fairly), at a minimum Jaylen doesn't pick up a second foul to get knocked out when he's carrying the offense, Green doesn't get away with bowling over Grant to give a foul to Grant and Green also picks up his second tech thus knocking him out of the rest of the game in the first half.  That changes the complexion of the game immensely such that it's reasonable to think that the C's carry a much bigger lead into the half and GSW's D isn't as overwhelming as it was in the third quarter to drive the C's into that massive hole.  Now I'm not saying the C's would also play smarter ball and not throw the ball away with TOs or take/make better shots but it wouldn't be a stretch to believe they'd have played better without Green or the rest of GSW manhandling them that quarter.

looking at the final score to say the refs didn't hand the game to GSW is missing a lot of obvious changes that would have occurred in the game that would have made things better for the C's and worse for GSW during the course of the game such that a huge deficit wouldn't have occurred for the C's.  it's no guarantee the C's would have won but the refs made it as difficult as possible.

[Goldstar88]

So this was a must win game for the Warriors. They lose and the series is over. The refs called more fouls on Golden State than they did on the C’s. So maybe it’s not rigged? 

[angryguy77]

So this was a must win game for the Warriors. They lose and the series is over. The refs called more fouls on Golden State than they did on the C’s. So maybe it’s not rigged? 

Is the series over if they lost game 4 or would they have to play one more in gs?

[Goldstar88]

So this was a must win game for the Warriors. They lose and the series is over. The refs called more fouls on Golden State than they did on the C’s. So maybe it’s not rigged? 

Is the series over if they lost game 4 or would they have to play one more in gs?

There have been 271 series where a team has been down 3-1 and only 13 were able to overcome the deficit. So less than a 5% chance? I’d say the series was over for them with an L last night. Wouldn’t you?

[angryguy77]

So this was a must win game for the Warriors. They lose and the series is over. The refs called more fouls on Golden State than they did on the C’s. So maybe it’s not rigged? 

Is the series over if they lost game 4 or would they have to play one more in gs?

There have been 271 series where a team has been down 3-1 and only 13 were able to overcome the deficit. So less than a 5% chance? I’d say the series was over for them with an L last night. Wouldn’t you?

Moat posts that I've seen isn't about helping a team win the series but to stretch it out.