Are NBA games pre-determined?

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I can't claim that all NBA games are completely fixed as far as outcome, but based on things such as Tim Donaghy, the 2002 Kings-Lakers series, and the fourth quarter of Game 7 of the 2010 Finals, I think it's obvious that there are 1) certain outcomes the league prefers, and 2) some biases at work that exceed the "normal" amount of human bias.

For example, we all know that officials see things differently based on where they're standing on the court—maybe there wasn't a foul, but from one official's angle it looked like a foul. That's normal; that's understandable. We're all human, right? We all have limitations.

But another aspect of being human is that we are prone to grudges, even unconscious ones, so I have no problem believing, for example, that Official X has it out for Player X.

And I don't know where the idea of "superstars get more calls" originated—has the league sent a private memo to all officials to call things differently for superstars? Or do officials just presume that the league wants preferential treatment for superstars? Or is it something else?—but whatever the origin, I think it's undeniable that officials routinely practice that concept.

Maybe some officials try to balance things out with "makeup" calls, but I also know that the final foul count for any game doesn't always tell the whole story—that is, just because each team was called for 20 fouls doesn't mean that the game was fairly officiated. What if one team deserved all 20 of its fouls but the other team deserved only 10? Or what if one team deserved all 20 but really should've been called for 40?

This is a topic where we can really get in the weeds, but generally speaking, I think it's true that officials often have more influence on the outcome of a game or series than they should.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

and there it is

“The NBA is like something between wrestling and a Ponzi scheme.”

-Bill Burr, doing a Red Sox broadcast

https://twitter.com/tcparker8/status/1533995677692338177?t=nLYKnZ9sqiSlly5dqRY_XQ&s=19

[kraidstar]

I'm embarrassed this thread exists.  Shameful.  Anyone voting yes should adjust their tin foil hat because it is clearly malfunctioning. 

And just remember, the Celtics have won the most titles, what does that say if the league fixes games?

Just totally disgusted that this exists.  This is why people hate New England sports fans.  Crap like this.

New England sports fans don't complain much about the officiating in other sports. There is a reason this league gets singled out the way it does.

This has to be satire. If it's not, I've got a deflated football (or, in another universe, a helmet that caught a football) NFT to sell you.

I thought we were talking about officiating here.

Do Pats fans think the refs are against us? Sox fans? Bruins? Yes there is griping but that pales in comparison to the NBA. Just like other fanbases in this league. You should see the Laker forums from the 2009 Finals when Bennett Salvatore and Scott Foster tried to hand game 4 to an overmatched Magic squad. Or ask the 2002 Kings fans (Dick Bavetta) or the 2005 Mavs (Mauer). Or the 2013 Bulls/Nets game 4 (Tony Brothers, bulls trying to go up 3-1), probably tbe worst-reffed hame I've ever seen.

As for the Pats, the NFL deflategate conspiracy theories were silly, but goodell did come down on us ridiculously hard for an equipment violation for a small amount of PSI being let out of the balls (and yes, the Pats did it). If the league just issues a hefty fine and a 1-game suspension for Brady it doesn't get as ugly as it did. And part of that is on Brady too for not coming clean.

Meanwhile Peyton Manning gets caught with HGH at his house, says its  for his wife (lol), and there are zero repercussions,  and the media downplays/buries the story. Or when the Chargers were putting stickum on their gloves and refused to cooperate with the officials when they got caught.

It is the discrepancies that drive fans nuts. You think the NBA would ever release evidence if they caught LeBron taking PEDs? I don't. They pick and choose based on hype, storylines, and advertising revenue/TV contracts.

[kraidstar]

Credit to those that are willing to admit we’re watching fiction. Some are trying to hedge their bets by saying something about slanted whistles. Maybe they don’t want to acknowledge the Celtics inadequacies, but are too self conscious to back up their accusations when given the chance to answer a yes/no question in plain language. I don’t get this. Why clamor about refs in a game thread on repeat, then decline the opportunity to vote accordingly? It’s really not a nuanced take- either Silver is handpicking refs to determine an outcome or not.

I think we should clarify the words and what they mean when they are used. I'm guilty of this and so are others, and while I can't speak for everyone, I'd think they would agree with the following I'm going to say. When "fixed" "rigged" etc are thrown around, I don't mean in the literally sense. As I noted earlier, Silver isn't calling the coaches and telling them to play poorly to lose a game. It' means the league is doing what it can without being too obvious(although after last game I wonder if they even care about appearance) to get an outcome they want. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes teams just overcome adversity or some scenarios don't happen which make it harder for a whistle to be blown.

No one that subscribes to this doesn't also think Boston didn't contribute to the lose on their own. Yes, sometimes they play in bad officiated games while compounding it with poor play. In this last game for instance, with the blatant way they allowed Green to act like a lunatic, I don't think they win unless they play way above their norm on a good night. I'm beating a dead horse I know, but those antics where not missed, they were allowed. It would be one thing if we had smart getting away with that same stuff but it didn't happen.

You wonder why many of us stick around despite believing the league is crooked. It's because many of us became fans before we had this realization. Many of us grew up in an era when you didn't have instance video evidence of what Green did or players talking about how they have special treatment. This team is part of our lives, so even though you may not respect the league, you hope your team can rise about the handicap the league will put on them depending on how the series is going. To be clear, I don't believe it's a matter of the front office having it our for certain teams, but a matter of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

TP. well said.

The NBA is by far the most corrupted league based on officiating easily. i mean donaghy told us about the league mandates on certain teams and players at certain times. steve javie just backed that up last game on air!  we have seen it since 2002. 

THe NFL is trash as well and also caters to new and or big market teams. see rams in 2018 in NFCCG against the saints and the no call on them when they blatantly did not call DPI and a PF on same play which robbed the saints of winning. they also stopped calling roughing passer after that on brees. They wanted LA there. LA had a new stadium. new NFL WEST headquarters are in LA right by SOFI stadium!.  LA lost in SB but got back this year and won. LA has had trouble keeping teams there and keeping fans. $$$$$$.  I mean the NFL admits it is NOT a competitive sport. They claim they are ENTERTAINMENT! WWE is entertainment also.

worst to best officiating:

1) NBA- pure trash. corrupt. proven by donaghy, bavetta, foster, crawford, etc and seen with your own eyes for two decades. javie admitted this other night. scary.


2) NFL- trash but not quite as smelly albeit they have agendas also.

3) NHL- have gotten much better over the years, used to be pretty bad at times

4) MLB-best calls in sports overall. nothing else comes close.

TP. Agree with the ranking at the end too. Theoretically in baseball an ump could fix every single ball/strike. But there is minimal complaint from the fans cause it's usually pretty consistent.  Same with contact in the NHL.

[kraidstar]

I will say this; you can generally see the between adjustments the refs make game to game.

zarba is a puppet and a shill. last two games he did with us he killed momentum any time we had it. that miami game was basically egregious.

True. I also thought we got a really good whistle in game 3, but, embarrassingly, could not convert the win. So very frustrating.

It goes both ways, but the general theme is the league likes to extend series and to have its biggest stars on the court as much as possible.

[kraidstar]

Double post

[droopdog7]

Predetermined no but they absolutely control the flow.  Team A is about to blow out team B.  The NBA doesn't want that to happen so call a few fouls.  Stop the momentum and change the flow.  The refs in the NBA hold more power over any other sport.  It's sickening how much they control.

While I believe this may happen, it's not for the reason you say.  I think it's human nature to give the teams in a deficit somewhat of break.

[cman88]

They aren't predetermined but they put their finger on the scale somewhat to hope for a desired result. Then once the result is in hand you give the losing team a bunch of fouls so it looks even at the end of the game.

I mean there is no other sport where you look at who is reffing and pretty much can tell how the game is going to go.

I mean how was game 1 so evenly called and then game 2 you aren't allowed to play that same way?

[Neurotic Guy]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

To me, it proves that there's a loud minority that looks externally when things get tough. The Celtics 100% lost that game (down 30 going into the 4th), and yet people want to focus on the bad officiating (no argument coming from me- the refs sucked).

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

To me, it proves that there's a loud minority that looks externally when things get tough. The Celtics 100% lost that game (down 30 going into the 4th), and yet people want to focus on the bad officiating (no argument coming from me- the refs sucked).

Yup. "The refs sucked" and "the bad reffing didn't matter" can both be true for a given game.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

To me, it proves that there's a loud minority that looks externally when things get tough. The Celtics 100% lost that game (down 30 going into the 4th), and yet people want to focus on the bad officiating (no argument coming from me- the refs sucked).

Yup. "The refs sucked" and "the bad reffing didn't matter" can both be true for a given game.

I agree with this. Overall, the officiating doesn't impact the outcome. Basketball players determine the outcome. Sure, there have been horrible calls that have affected outcomes. I just don't believe that Silver is sitting there picking winners and losers, and subsequently, picking crews to support this mission.

[indeedproceed]

I mean if the man upstairs is truly all knowing and all-powerful, isn't everything kind of running on script? We'll know we deserve to win if our score is more after 4 quarters. Huge indicator He favors us.

[LilRip]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

To me, it proves that there's a loud minority that looks externally when things get tough. The Celtics 100% lost that game (down 30 going into the 4th), and yet people want to focus on the bad officiating (no argument coming from me- the refs sucked).

Yup. "The refs sucked" and "the bad reffing didn't matter" can both be true for a given game.

I agree with this. Overall, the officiating doesn't impact the outcome. Basketball players determine the outcome. Sure, there have been horrible calls that have affected outcomes. I just don't believe that Silver is sitting there picking winners and losers, and subsequently, picking crews to support this mission.

Same boat except I’d like to qualify the impact of officiating and the outcome. In a close game, one or two bad calls could’ve absolutely decided that game. However, for the most part, bad officiating is only another “negative stat” that needs to get overcome. Its like turnovers.

I think GSW got a favorable whistle in Gm2 and collectively, maybe “3 turnovers” worth or something. But C’s already had 18 and so having 21 vs GSW’s 10? That level of adversity is almost insurmountable.

[nickagneta]

i don't think it's rigged at all but it is frustrating that some games are called tight and others players are given more leeway.  I'd like more consistency among the refs, and if not, at least consistency within each game.  I do think it's a tough game to call - lots of calls that could go either way and lots of acting.   

I found it interesting during the Miami series that there were games that both fanbases were up in arms about the refs -- both sides thinking that the game was rigged in favor of the other team.  Interesting to see that happening -- doesn't really prove anything but does suggest that we see things through our own lenses.

To me, it proves that there's a loud minority that looks externally when things get tough. The Celtics 100% lost that game (down 30 going into the 4th), and yet people want to focus on the bad officiating (no argument coming from me- the refs sucked).

Yup. "The refs sucked" and "the bad reffing didn't matter" can both be true for a given game.

I agree with this. Overall, the officiating doesn't impact the outcome. Basketball players determine the outcome. Sure, there have been horrible calls that have affected outcomes. I just don't believe that Silver is sitting there picking winners and losers, and subsequently, picking crews to support this mission.

Same boat except I’d like to qualify the impact of officiating and the outcome. In a close game, one or two bad calls could’ve absolutely decided that game. However, for the most part, bad officiating is only another “negative stat” that needs to get overcome. Its like turnovers.

I think GSW got a favorable whistle in Gm2 and collectively, maybe “3 turnovers” worth or something. But C’s already had 18 and so having 21 vs GSW’s 10? That level of adversity is almost insurmountable.

It's a bit more nuanced than you guys make it out to be. If Green gets correctly called for his tackle of Grant, he could get less physical. If Brown isn't called for a foul where he didn't touch a shooter, Brown could have stayed in the game and stayed hot. If Green is correctly called for a 2nd tech and kicked out of the game before the half, the entire third quarter could have been different.

It's not just, look the # fouls were the same at games end. It's not just the refs were bad. It's they were bad in such a way as to change the course of the game at certain times.

That matters. Of course, that can be all blamed on incompetence rather than pre-determinism, but it sure seems fishy, especially when the refs stop the game to review a technical foul they call and reverse it(which is the very 1st time I have ever seen that in my 40+ years watching basketball) and then a former ref and goes on TV and admits deferential treatment for players(and by extension, teams).