SI - 5 Buyer Beware Free Agents (Smart is the first one)

[saltlover]

Not sure where else to put this info, but Pelton did an article on ESPN estimating how much 1 WARP would cost this summer, compared to other summers:

"As a group, my projections for this summer's free agents show them providing around 240 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2018-19. After factoring in the amount needed to fill out rosters with replacement-level players at the minimum salary, that leaves teams with about $1.75 million per WARP at the high end of projected spending, down to $1.15 million at the low end.

Naturally, this is a big change from recent seasons. Last summer, my projected cost of a win ranged from $2.7 million to $3.2 million and the actual figure ended up being $2.8 million. In the halcyon days of 2016, I projected a range between $3.3 million and $5 million per WARP before teams actually spent $3.8 million per WARP."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23940071/nba-free-agency-all-big-signings-wins

Pelton's system projects Smart's WARP at 18.3 over the next 3 years (total).

That means that Smart's contract would be projected to be 21-32 million over 3 years.

That means that his contract would be anywhere from 7-9 million a year for 3 years, or about the MLE.

Your math is slightly off.  That’d be $7-11 million a year.

Oops. Thanks for the correction.

Still an extremely manageable number.

Yes, although Pelton values wins linearly, which is simply wrong.  Wins should have an increasing marginal cost.  You can’t play 50 single win players in a season for 50 wins above repayment.  I don’t know where Smart falls in terms of median or mean projected WARP for free agents this year to be able to say whether he should be valued higher or lower, but I get really annoyed with all wins being valued the same in these methodologies.  It’s a completely flawed premise, and someone who’s got the resources to get it right, as Pelton does, should do so.

[SHAQATTACK]

That’s right, Sports Illustrated.  Scare away the competition!

TP !

[SHAQATTACK]

Seriously...

Who does he want to sign with

Pacers ......yeah right ....you want to staynon top not go down a rung.

Even if pay more ...it will have to be ALOT more , stupid amount Lakers like more

He is  right at the cusp of playing  for atitle and he jumps ship to join a crew that will never get that far ..   He would have to be incredibly mad like Kyrie was at Cavs to jump off the title boat to a sinking no where club.

he has a chance to MAKE history or go to the Pacers and FADE into history .

He is a Celtic at least this year .....Bank it.

[Beat LA]

Only good thing SI has released in a while. Thanks, keep bringing down his value.

Even the Swimsuit Issue?

[mmmmm]

Not sure where else to put this info, but Pelton did an article on ESPN estimating how much 1 WARP would cost this summer, compared to other summers:

"As a group, my projections for this summer's free agents show them providing around 240 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2018-19. After factoring in the amount needed to fill out rosters with replacement-level players at the minimum salary, that leaves teams with about $1.75 million per WARP at the high end of projected spending, down to $1.15 million at the low end.

Naturally, this is a big change from recent seasons. Last summer, my projected cost of a win ranged from $2.7 million to $3.2 million and the actual figure ended up being $2.8 million. In the halcyon days of 2016, I projected a range between $3.3 million and $5 million per WARP before teams actually spent $3.8 million per WARP."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23940071/nba-free-agency-all-big-signings-wins

Pelton's system projects Smart's WARP at 18.3 over the next 3 years (total).

That means that Smart's contract would be projected to be 21-32 million over 3 years.

That means that his contract would be anywhere from 7-9 million a year for 3 years, or about the MLE.

Your math is slightly off.  That’d be $7-11 million a year.

LOL!  Of course the numbers would be right in that range.   Because, if I figure right regarding Baynes' contract, isn't it that we have right around 7.9M of space left below the luxury tax?

So, basically, if Smart gets an offer below that, then matching it is a no-brainer.   But anything above it .. even just a few dollahs ... becomes a potential tax trigger.   Which is a very expensive situation down the road because it starts the repeater clock.

Can another team call the C's matching bluff with as low as a measly 9M offer sheet?

Is Smart really and truly best off playing on the 6M QO?

[ManUp]

Number 1 on the list is exactly where Marcus belongs.

His value is hard to quantify, but I've never seen someone so offensively deficient seem so valuable.

Defense and hustle guards usually don't make much money(by league standards) in the NBA.

[nickagneta]

Not sure where else to put this info, but Pelton did an article on ESPN estimating how much 1 WARP would cost this summer, compared to other summers:

"As a group, my projections for this summer's free agents show them providing around 240 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2018-19. After factoring in the amount needed to fill out rosters with replacement-level players at the minimum salary, that leaves teams with about $1.75 million per WARP at the high end of projected spending, down to $1.15 million at the low end.

Naturally, this is a big change from recent seasons. Last summer, my projected cost of a win ranged from $2.7 million to $3.2 million and the actual figure ended up being $2.8 million. In the halcyon days of 2016, I projected a range between $3.3 million and $5 million per WARP before teams actually spent $3.8 million per WARP."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23940071/nba-free-agency-all-big-signings-wins

Pelton's system projects Smart's WARP at 18.3 over the next 3 years (total).

That means that Smart's contract would be projected to be 21-32 million over 3 years.

That means that his contract would be anywhere from 7-9 million a year for 3 years, or about the MLE.

Your math is slightly off.  That’d be $7-11 million a year.

His math was a little off but I still think DWC nailed Smart's value on the nose at $7-9 million. I can't help but wonder if someone like Indy decides to get silly and offer Smart a 4 year $60+ million contract, does Smart become a victim of needing to stay under the luxury tax this year and limiting the penalty down the line? Where is that line where Danny says...okay best of luck. Bye. Does he overpay for Smart and instead dump Morris for a pick to offset the money? Should be interesting and...I am guessing....taking a long while to come to a conclusion.

[The Oracle]

538's Carmelo player projections have Smart with a 5 year value of $134.2 million.  Using WARP to evaluate a defensive specialist like Marcus is just an awful idea, it can't even begin to value him correctly.  Carmelo somehow evaluates him on the extreme other end at like $26.8 million per year.  All these metrics are painfully flawed.

[mmmmm]

538's Carmelo player projections have Smart with a 5 year value of $134.2 million.  Using WARP to evaluate a defensive specialist like Marcus is just an awful idea, it can't even begin to value him correctly.  Carmelo somehow evaluates him on the extreme other end at like $26.8 million per year.  All these metrics are painfully flawed.

Carmelo has massively over-projected Smart's value in each of his first 4 seasons.

I wouldn't trust their model for Smart at all.  It clearly just doesn't work for him.

[Big333223]

Basically it's the Evan Turner effect. Stevens used Turner perfectly and he played the best ball of his career. Since he left his numbers aren't THAT different. Everything is trending down but they are pretty similar. But check the VORP(Value Over Replacement Player). In Boston it was 0.6 in 2015 and 0.8 in 2016. With Portland it has been 0.1 and -0.3 the last two years. His entire career was also pretty much in the negative other than two seasons in Boston.

Look at Smart's VORPs under Stevens. 1.4, 1.1, 1.0, 0.6. The fear is that Smart will simply not be as effective a player away from Stevens even if he puts up similar or better numbers. That is why he is a total buyer beware for any other team.

The belief in Stevens around the league is so great for the Celtics come free agency. It makes good players want to come play here to maximize their potential and it also scares other teams from poaching good players thinking those players might not be as good on their teams.