Recency Bias and Why the Last 23 (15-8) Games Have Been More Important than the

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Recency Bias and Why the Last 23 (15-8) Games Have Been More Important than the First 18 (16-2) for the Celtics

The Celtics have had more drama this season than an entire season of The Walking Dead.

...They lost their best two-way player 5 minutes into the season.
...They went on a 16 game winning streak that included electrifying comebacks and elite defense.
...Irving broke his face.
...Rookie Jayson Tatum led the league in 3 point percentage for over a month, forcing talking-heads to start asking questions about his ROY candidacy.
...2nd Year player Jaylen Brown lost his best friend (RIP) and came back to propel the Celtics to a huge win over the Warriors. Brown had multiple important baskets, a blocked shot against Durant, a blocked shot against Thompson, and a steal from Curry.
...The Celtics have played 4 games more than anyone in the NBA.
...The Celtics have rotated through 6 rookies this season.
...The IT vs. Ainge and Irving saga offers ongoing drama building anticipation of the Eastern Conference Finals.
...The ongoing whispers of trading for Anthony Davis (or another big name) give a constant low current buzz around the Celtics.

Although the Celtics started 16-2, its actually been the last 23 games (15-8) that will prove to be the most important stretch of the season for the Celtics. [/li][/list]

Why? Because of player development. Because new players continue to get comfortable in the Celtic system.

Terry Rozier

Terry Rozier is a prime example of this. The Celtics have relied on Rozier to learn how to score off the bench. He's been wildly inconsistent all season, but Brad Stevens has committed to force-feeding Rozier in the second unit.

Rozier is averaging 10 points per game on 45-43-76 shooting splits over the last 23 games. Also, his turnovers are down, his rebounds remain high, and he is figuring out how to create for others.

Marcus Smart

Smart's shooting splits 27-26-78 through the 16-2 stretch were terrible, but he has 40-33-63 shooting splits over the last 23 games. That doesn't make him a shooter, but it does make him respectable. Combine that with Smart's increasing mastery of the pick-and-roll game and upper-tier defense, and Smart is a key cog to to move the Celtics into title contention.

Jaylen Brown

Brown has learned how to pick his spots on the court better as well. Brown is shooting 49% from the floor overall and 41% from three over the last 23 games. Although he has struggled more with foul trouble and his free throw shooting in that stretch, his offensive efficiency has taken a step forward.

Kyrie Irving

But it's not just young guys. It's also veterans who are improving their comfort within the Celtic system. In the last 23 games, Kyrie Irving has averaged 27 points per game with 50-43-90 shooting splits.

Conclusion

Horford's assists are up over that stretch. Theis' fouls are down. Baynes' efficiency is up. Yabusele is getting good minutes. Semi is working out his shooting jitters. Larkin has figured out how to be a timely scoring punch off the bench. Even Nader has played an important role as an energy guy.

The only players whose numbers are essentially the same are Jayson Tatum (rookie) and Marcus Morris (injuries make it a small sample size).

The Celtics are the sixth youngest team in the NBA this year. Four of the top five are not playoff teams. The other one is the about-to-be-blown-up Blazers (19-18). Meanwhile, the Celtics have a .76 winning percentage, which is 2nd in the NBA.

There are other reasons why the Celtics have struggled over the last 23 games, but one unexplored possibility is that Brad Stevens is force-feeding development. That's always painful because it costs wins (just ask the Wolves, Sixers, and Suns), but it's also necessary to win in the long run.

If the Celtics can get the same level of production from their team over the last 23 games (15-8), while figuring out how to leverage that production into wins, then they can compete with anyone in the playoffs.

https://treytalkssports.com/2018/01/04/recency-bias-and-why-the-last-23-15-8-games-have-been-more-important-than-the-first-18-16-2-for-the-celtics/

[Evantime34]

Good post!

My only retort to the past 23 games being more important than the previous 18 is that duriing the 23 game stretch the Celtics didn't get much rest in between games. Their record is much better when they get more rest. I think the first 18 might be more representative of the talent on the team because the rest they got in between games was more similar to the playoffs than the 23 game stretch.

I also don't agree that Brad force fed young players minutes, I think it was more of a he was forced to go to those guys due to injury type situation. During the 23 game stretch, Kyrie, Al, Jaylen, Morris, Semi, and Larkin all missed games.

[gift]

Very good points. Important to keep in mind that Brad has always preferred to tinker during the regular season, so that any stretch of games is not going to necessarily demonstrate the team at its peak. Remember IT getting mad about that? He thought they could have won more games had the coaching staff stuck with heavy minutes for the known rotations. But Brad always wants to find out what he has in different lineups.

[cman88]

it was important for the C's to weather the storm of the schedule. they were the first team to play 41 games this season I think.

Now that means more rest and time off the remainder of the season which should benefit them greatly.

[mctyson]

I wrote a post after the Jazz game that I thought they might be broken, but I am willing to consider that the schedule and not having Morris was a much larger detriment that I thought.

When they are fully healthy as they are now they bring a different defensive energy.

[gift]

I wrote a post after the Jazz game that I thought they might be broken, but I am willing to consider that the schedule and not having Morris was a much larger detriment that I thought.

When they are fully healthy as they are now they bring a different defensive energy.

They are definitely a different team when rested. More than most teams that I can remember.

[Big333223]

Obviously a 16-2 start could not be indicative of this team's record going forward. So I do think, at the halfway point, looking at their record in the 23 games after is a better representation of who this team is.

And the news is still good. 15-8 is a 53 win pace. If they keep that up in the second half of the year, we're looking at a 57-25 record which would be absolutely phenomenal after losing Hayward on opening night. I think my preseason prediction was 56 wins, so the prospect of meeting or even exceeding that without Hayward would leave me very satisfied.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I'm really curious to hear what some of you think are the reasons for the better numbers for many Celtic players over the 15-8 stretch?

[Vermont Green]

I'm really curious to hear what some of you think are the reasons for the better numbers for many Celtic players over the 15-8 stretch?

I don't agree with the premise of your question.  I don't think there are "many" Celtic players that are playing better.  I would say that Smart is shooting better and Rozier is better overall but I think Horford for example is coming down some (no one expected him to keep shooting 3s that well), Brown has dealt with some injuries, Tatum is leveling off, and I can't say that I think Irving is playing better.  When you get to players like Baynes, Theis, Ojeleye, they don't make enough of an impact that it matters much even if they are playing a little better or not.

But as someone else said, 15-8 pace without Hayward and in spite of a very tough schedule is really good.  I think Morris is a underappreciated X-factor.  If we can keep him on the court, he is going to help in a number of ways.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I'm really curious to hear what some of you think are the reasons for the better numbers for many Celtic players over the 15-8 stretch?

I don't agree with the premise of your question.  I don't think there are "many" Celtic players that are playing better.  I would say that Smart is shooting better and Rozier is better overall but I think Horford for example is coming down some (no one expected him to keep shooting 3s that well), Brown has dealt with some injuries, Tatum is leveling off, and I can't say that I think Irving is playing better.  When you get to players like Baynes, Theis, Ojeleye, they don't make enough of an impact that it matters much even if they are playing a little better or not.

But as someone else said, 15-8 pace without Hayward and in spite of a very tough schedule is really good.  I think Morris is a underappreciated X-factor.  If we can keep him on the court, he is going to help in a number of ways.

Just curious, did you read the OP?

[Vermont Green]

I'm really curious to hear what some of you think are the reasons for the better numbers for many Celtic players over the 15-8 stretch?

I don't agree with the premise of your question.  I don't think there are "many" Celtic players that are playing better.  I would say that Smart is shooting better and Rozier is better overall but I think Horford for example is coming down some (no one expected him to keep shooting 3s that well), Brown has dealt with some injuries, Tatum is leveling off, and I can't say that I think Irving is playing better.  When you get to players like Baynes, Theis, Ojeleye, they don't make enough of an impact that it matters much even if they are playing a little better or not.

But as someone else said, 15-8 pace without Hayward and in spite of a very tough schedule is really good.  I think Morris is a underappreciated X-factor.  If we can keep him on the court, he is going to help in a number of ways.

Just curious, did you read the OP?

You seem to be very curious today.

Yes I did.  I just didn't agree with much of it.  For example, you quote Irving's shooting stats but based on watching the games, I felt Irving was playing better earlier in the season by getting other players involved more and recording more assists vs. points.  I don't think Horford is playing better.  Horford was shooting other-worldly to start the season.  Those are our two most impactful players.  Changes in their contribution have the largest impact on the results of the team.  I don't even understand what the underlying point you are trying to make is.  You are suggesting that "many" of the players are playing better but the team is winning fewer games.  This seems to be a curious assertion. 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I'm really curious to hear what some of you think are the reasons for the better numbers for many Celtic players over the 15-8 stretch?

I don't agree with the premise of your question.  I don't think there are "many" Celtic players that are playing better.  I would say that Smart is shooting better and Rozier is better overall but I think Horford for example is coming down some (no one expected him to keep shooting 3s that well), Brown has dealt with some injuries, Tatum is leveling off, and I can't say that I think Irving is playing better.  When you get to players like Baynes, Theis, Ojeleye, they don't make enough of an impact that it matters much even if they are playing a little better or not.

But as someone else said, 15-8 pace without Hayward and in spite of a very tough schedule is really good.  I think Morris is a underappreciated X-factor.  If we can keep him on the court, he is going to help in a number of ways.

Just curious, did you read the OP?

You seem to be very curious today.

Yes I did.  I just didn't agree with much of it.  For example, you quote Irving's shooting stats but based on watching the games, I felt Irving was playing better earlier in the season by getting other players involved more and recording more assists vs. points.  I don't think Horford is playing better.  Horford was shooting other-worldly to start the season.  Those are our two most impactful players.  Changes in their contribution have the largest impact on the results of the team.  I don't even understand what the underlying point you are trying to make is.  You are suggesting that "many" of the players are playing better but the team is winning fewer games.  This seems to be a curious assertion.

Just curious 

Kyrie has been more efficient as a scorer and has a much better rhythm in the Celtic offense, but I agree that he hasn't distributed as well.

Though Horford isn't shooting as well, he has been a better distributor. As much as Irving's assists are down, Horford's are up.

They've flipped. In some ways they are playing better now and in some ways they played better before.

The primary point made in the OP is that "Brad Stevens is force-feeding development. That's always painful because it costs wins (just ask the Wolves, Sixers, and Suns), but it's also necessary to win in the long run."

In other words, the production is better in many cases with the Celtic players, but it didn't leverage into wins. Hopefully moving forward it will. My argument is that CBS was focused on development over that stretch, which led to less wins but better production across the board from the 6th youngest team in the league, and that in the playoffs it will pay off.

[bellerephon]

It's just the ups and downs of an NBA schedule. It was wildly unlikely that they would continue to win at the early season pace, especially when you consider that they were games in that stretch that they probably should have lost but managed to win anyways. It should be expected that they don't win at the same pace, it's not due to anything that Brad is trying to do, it's just the way the season goes.

[vjcsmoke]

It's just the ups and downs of an NBA schedule. It was wildly unlikely that they would continue to win at the early season pace, especially when you consider that they were games in that stretch that they probably should have lost but managed to win anyways. It should be expected that they don't win at the same pace, it's not due to anything that Brad is trying to do, it's just the way the season goes.

The really nice thing about that 16 game win streak is that the Celtics knocked off a LOT of good teams that nobody else nationwide expected them to beat.  This gives them the confidence going forward that they can beat the top teams who will be contenders in the playoffs.  I mean look at their record against the likes of Golden State, San Antonio, Houston, Cleveland, etc. this year and you will see that not only are they holding their own, they are winning the majority of these tete a tetes.

Nobody else in the country believes the Celtics stand a chance against the Cavs.  But the Celtics believe they can beat these guys now.  They believe they can beat anybody, and for the most part they have done just that.  As a team they have a confidence based on experience now to take with them and execute down the stretch.