I really like Jamal Murray, and I'd like to compare him with two fellow one-and-done shooting guards out of Kentucky, Devin Booker and James Young. I'm also going to throw in Nik Stauskas. Obviously, one of these comparisons is much more flattering than the others, as Booker looks like a future all-star, and Young and Stauskas look like... well, anyway.
Tools – These guys have pretty similar physical profiles, as Murray is 6'5 207lb, Booker was 6'6 206lb, Young was 6'6 215, and Stauskas was 6'6 205. None of these guys is a plus athlete, but Young had a great wingspan at 7'0, much longer than Stauskas (6' 8 ), Booker (6' 8 ), or Murray (6'7). Of the four, I'd say that Stauskas and Booker were the least athletic; Young and Murray cover a bit more ground with their strides, Young has the best frame, and Murray is the quickest of the four at least on offense (though his poor defensive stance really limits his ability to slide on D). That said, he is probably the weakest of the four, with a below-average frame (freshman-year Stauskas was even scrawnier, but he transformed his body before his sophomore year).
Scoring – Murray has been a really effective shooter + scorer for Kentucky, putting up 22.7pts/40 on a .590TS% and 22.7 PER (coincidence). He is shooting 41% on 3's on a .515 3PAr (ie half of his shot attempts are 3's). On 2's, he shoots 50%. He shot 78% on Fts. Booker was a slightly less prolific and more efficient scorer: 18.7pts/40 on a .600TS% and 19.4PER, .411 from 3 on a .4913PAr, 83% on Fts. The most significant difference is that Booker played much fewer minutes than Murray, at 21.5 per game compared with 35.5. Young was a less proficient and less efficient scorer than both, at 17.7pts/40 on a 16.6 PER/.536TS%, and .706FT%. Stauskas scored 14.5 and 19.7 pts/40 in his freshman and sophomore seasons, on awesome efficiency (.634/.642TS%, 17.6.6/22.7 PER, .441 3P%, .832FT%). Overall, Murray was the most prolific scorer of the bunch, and his efficiency was on par with Booker, better than Young, and worse than Stauskas.
AST/TOV – Murray had a solid 2.5 assists and a slightly-high 2.7 turnovers per 40. Booker 2.1 and 1.8, Young had 2.1 and 2.3, and Stauskas had 2.7 and 2.3 his freshman year before playing as more of a lead guard his sophomore year and collecting 5.9/3.3. Murray allegedly has some potential to play PG, but playing next to Tyler Ulis he didn't get much of a chance to prove it, and I think he's better playing off the ball and guarding SG's.
Steals + blocks – None of these guys is much of a defensive prospect, but Murray had the least-bad defensive stats of the four. Murray had a 1.6 stl% and a 0.9 blk%; Booker: 1.3%, 0.3%; Young: 1.4%, 0.6%; Stauskas: 1.1%, 0.9% career. There's no reason to think that Murray will be a good defender, but his stats don't paint him as a hopeless defender either. His defensive stance (hunched over, knees not bent) is a huge issue, but it seems easily fixable.
Skillset and role – All these guys got most of their offense behind the arc. Stauskas and Murray were the best ball handlers, in either the PnR or isolation, but Stauskas was definitely the better ballhandler of the two, and he played more on-ball. Booker was more of a guy who ran off screens than a guy who created off the bounce. Young didn't excel at getting open either as a ball handler or off screens, but he got shots off using his length. Murray seems to combine some of Stauskas's handles with Booker's awesome ability to use off-ball screens to get open, and it's the latter ability that is most exciting; his ability to run the PnR is gravy. Booker was probably under-utilized in college with 21mpg and only a 22.8USG%, whereas Murray had a much bigger role, with 35mpg and a 27.1USG%.
Outlook - It seems likely to me that if Booker had earned more trust from Calipari, he would have had an eerily similar season as Murray did, and this comparison makes me think that Murray deserves a hard look at #3 overall. Except for age, there is no category in which Murray is clearly worse than Booker. It's clear that Murray is a better prospect than James Young, whose production and efficiency were not on the level of the other three guys. Stauskas is a bit of a cautionary tale, but he was also 1.5 years older for his draft class than Murray is, and he got his offense in different ways. Booker and Young were both ~0.5 years younger for their draft class than Murray is, which might make Murray's superior production look slightly less impressive. Another concern is that playing alongside Tyler Ulis might have helped his stats, as he wasn't always defended by the other team's best perimeter defender and Ulis created a lot of good looks for him. Still, it's not as though Booker and Young had to play with scrubs. After bouncing Murray arround between #4 and #7 on my mental ranking all year, I now have him solidly inked in at the #4 slot behind Simmons, Ingram and Bender.
Topic: Murray vs Booker and Young (Read 2371 times)