Where I get to be depressed about Young, Hunter, and Rozier.

[alldaboston]

Terry Rozier

I hated this pick when it was made and since then I've only grown to hate it more. Picking James Young is at least defensible in the sense that Ainge swung for a fences and missed. That's fine: you'll never get Giannis if you don't suffer through a few Fab Melos and James Youngs. Rozier was a projected second-rounder that nobody thought had a particularly high ceiling that we took a reach on based on... God knows what.

What's worse is that he plays a position where we already had massive redundancy, and this is particularly glaring when you consider that there were multiple serviceable players on the board who addressed our biggest need (wing depth.) RHJ is the obvious miss, but i find it hard to believe that Sam Dekker or Justin Anderson wouldn't be taking at least some of the "Jerebko at SF" or "Smart at SF" minutes if we had got them.

To be fair, the fact that he plays the same position as our best player, best prospect, and best sixth man means that he hasn't gotten as much chance to prove himself as Young or Hunter have. I don't think I've ever actually seen him playing non-garbage minutes. But it's concerning to me that he can't even get some Phil Pressey minutes when we consider that even Phil Pressey could get Phil Pressey minutes. Hell, we waived Phil Pressey because this guy was on the roster - in that sense, there's been an actual downgrade. We no longer have a quick-footed third PG who can come on and push the pace for 3~5 minutes when the opposition is tired.

You are so very wrong about Rozier.

I'm going to put this out there right now - Rozier has more upside then Smart.  You're going to say I'm crazy and that I'm living in a dream world, but come back here 2-3 years from now and we will see who is the better player.

Rozier is a two-way guard with elite athleticism who can score in a variety of ways.  He can get to the basket almost at will, he can score from midrange and he can hit the three.  He's an exceptional rebounder for a small guard (think Rondo/Westbrook like) and he's actually a pretty solid ball handler - FAR better than Smart is. 

To add to that he is an exceptional defensive prospect, and was probably one of the top 2 or 3 defensive guards in the draft.

Then to add to all of that, he has a winners mentality and is a hardcore competitor with elite work ethic (much like Smart).

Smart is an exceptional defensive player who has great size, but his quickness is a little bit limiting and he might never develop into an above average offensive player - I can't see him ever averaging more than maybe 14-15 PPG. 

Rozier has the talent to be a 20 PPG scorer in this league. 

Imagine Isaiah Thomas' offensive skillset with Avery Bradley's size and defensive skill set and you basically have Rozier in a nutshell.

His potential is sky high, and he really doesn't have a major weakness to his game - there isn't really any aspect of his game where he isn't at least decent.

* In College Rozier was a 17 PPG scorer in his final year with a +18 net rating (108.3 OffRtg, 89.6 DefRtg). 

* In the D League he is averaging  19.4 points, 8.0 assists, 6.4 rebounds, 1.9 steals

* Today against Toronto he had 7 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists and 0 turnovers in 10 minutes on 3-4 shooting, so he's already starting to show SOME flashes of what he is capable of despite getting barely any opportunity

Brad Stevens has already gone on record saying that Rozier has been playing great in practice and has shown that he is ready to play on the NBA stage.

Don't underestimate this kid, he is going to be a hell of a player.

Edit:  Just noticed your updated post about Rozier

All the other guys you mentioned were so talented at what they do well that they all got plenty of minutes their rookie season. I'll wait a bit longer.

If Rozier is so wonderful, why is he shooting 24% on the season? How much has he shown in his limited minutes if he is shooting 24%? If Smart was better on defense from day one, is 24% Rozier's trump card?

Don't judge guys only after games when their shots drop.

BTW, Smart and Rozier are the exact same age, so if Rozier can improve from 24%, Smart can improve on his offense too.

I don't see how comparing Rozier to IT is defensible. Did you look at IT's rookie season stats before making that claim? Rozier is not in IT's league offensively.

It will be great if Rozier becomes a legitimate NBA player, but you are grossly overstating the case.

Rozier wants it. Smart doesn't seem to want it. At least on offense.

[crimson_stallion]

Edit:  Just noticed your updated post about Rozier

Thanks. I think it's a bit of hyperbole to say that he has more potential than smart over about a half-hour of total play, but he's certainly not as useless as I thought.

On separate topic: you know what, we should just start Hunter, Young, or Clarke at SF. It is at possible at least in theory that they could guard players in the SF position. If they can't, at least they don't completely mess up our tactical structure like these weird permutations of lineups Brad is putting out.

If we start a kid at SF, maybe the starting lineup gets punished a bit against teams with good offensive options at that position. On the other hand, we get to keep the bench rotations the same and aren't forced into the frankenstein's monster lineups that kill our offense completely for three~four minute stretches throughout the game.

And who knows, maybe the minutes make it click for one of them and then we've got a huge windfall on our hands.

To be honest, I've been saying this about Rozier since draft day.  Before I saw him play even a minute in the NBA or D League.
 
When you look at Rozier's college highlights, you can see the potential just dripping off him. 

Things like:

1) Body control and his ability to finish tough shots around the basket
That's such a big thing for an NBA guard these days.  Just a very explosive athlete, and yet he has the physical strength to be able to take a hit, and the physical length (6'8" wingspan from memory) to be able to get his shot off.  So many highlights were you can see him taking hits, distorting his body, and somehow making the shots.  There have been NBA guards who have really excelled as scorers despite not having a good jump shot (e.g. Wade, Rose) based purely on their ability to finish with contact around the basket.  For an NBA guard to be an effective scorer these days, those skills are so important - and it's something Smart doesn't really have.  Combine that with Smart's lack of jumper and it makes it hard to envision him ever becoming more than just an average offensive player.


2) Midrange game
Again, looking at those college highlights I was really impressed by Rozier's ability to his tough midrange jumpers in a variety of scenarios - contested, fadeaways, off the dribble, with contact, pull ups, etc.  He wasn't yet constent enough with those shots in college, but the fact that he has the raw ability to make all of those types of shots is huge because 'where there is smoke, there is fire' as the saying goes - if his has some naturally ability to hit those shots already, then he has the potential to become a great midrange scorer with experience.  This is another aspect of Smart's game that just isn't there, and really never has been.

3) Quickness with the ball
All through college Rozier showed the ability to be explosive with the ball. He's got an extremely quick first step and a solid handle, and is extremely good at changing speeds, changing direction and stopping on a dime.  It's those talents that allow him to be so adept and getting to the basket pretty much at will, and that's another very important talent for a guard in the NBA game.  If you can blow by your defenders on a consistent basis with your dribble and quickness then you can create all kinda of trouble for opposing teams - think: Isaiah Thomas.   Yet another talent that Marcus Smart doesn't have.  He just doesn't have that explosive first step, or the ball handling ability.

4) Three point potential
Rozier has never been an elite three point shooter, but he's been a competent one.  He shot 33% from three over his college career (on over 3 attempts per game) and is shooting 34% from three in the D-League (on over 5 attempts per game), and he shot 40% from three in Summer League (on 3 attempts per game).  He gets good elevation on his shot, he jumps very quickly, and he has pretty solid form based on the eye test.  He hasn't played enough NBA minutes for his NBA stats to mean anything yet, but definitely has the potential to develop into a decent (perhaps even good) three point shooter - something Smart might one day do, but hasn't shown he's capable of just yet.

The above criteria are pretty much ALL you need to become a very dangerous scorer at the NBA level, so Rozier has all the tools. 

I would say his PG skills are slightly better than Smart (better ball handler, about on par as a passer) which is impressive given Smart has almost two full season of experience under his belt now - versus Rozier who has barely played.

Factor in his defensive potential (lateral quickness, length, leaping ability, determination, motor),  and his talent as a rebounder, and you have one very talented kid.

Even on draft day I thought Rozier had slightly higher upside than Smart (but also higher risk).  By now I am extremely confident that Rozier is going to become a significantly better player than Smart.   

I think Rozier has legit star potential.  As I said in my previous post, I see him as a bit of a merger between Isaiah Thomas' offensive skillset and confidence, combined with and Avery Bradley's defensive skill set and determination.  Put all that together and you have one hell of a prospect.

Don't be surprised if Rozier is taking over Bradley's starting spot a year or two from now, and maybe even Thomas' in time.   

[crimson_stallion]

All the other guys you mentioned were so talented at what they do well that they all got plenty of minutes their rookie season. I'll wait a bit longer.

If Rozier is so wonderful, why is he shooting 24% on the season? How much has he shown in his limited minutes if he is shooting 24%? If Smart was better on defense from day one, is 24% Rozier's trump card?

Don't judge guys only after games when their shots drop.

BTW, Smart and Rozier are the exact same age, so if Rozier can improve from 24%, Smart can improve on his offense too.

I don't see how comparing Rozier to IT is defensible. Did you look at IT's rookie season stats before making that claim? Rozier is not in IT's league offensively.

It will be great if Rozier becomes a legitimate NBA player, but you are grossly overstating the case.

Look at what Rozier did in college - he was one of the best scorers in the college game, and was also one of the best defensive guards in college.

Look at the numbers he put up in summer league.

Look at the way he is absolutely dominaint the D league.

Listen to the comments from Ainge regarding WHY he selected Rozier (around his determination and rediculous work ethic). 

Look at his physicals (6'2", 6'8" wingspan, 38" Vertical, explosive quickness).

Look at his skills sets - ability to get to the basket, ability to finish at the basket, ability to score from midrange, ability to hit the three, solid handle. 

He has all the skills and talents to become an excellent NBA player, just needs to refine his skills.  It's pointless judging him based on the numbers he has put up in 158 NBA minutes.  That's not close to a big enough sample size to see what he can do. 

But if you look at his raw skill / talent set and what he has done at every other level so far, the potential is clearly there.

As I said you can call me crazy, that's fine.  Come back in 2 - 3 years, and we will see.

[hwangjini_1]

Edit:  Just noticed your updated post about Rozier

Thanks. I think it's a bit of hyperbole to say that he has more potential than smart over about a half-hour of total play, but he's certainly not as useless as I thought.

On separate topic: you know what, we should just start Hunter, Young, or Clarke at SF. It is at possible at least in theory that they could guard players in the SF position. If they can't, at least they don't completely mess up our tactical structure like these weird permutations of lineups Brad is putting out.

If we start a kid at SF, maybe the starting lineup gets punished a bit against teams with good offensive options at that position. On the other hand, we get to keep the bench rotations the same and aren't forced into the frankenstein's monster lineups that kill our offense completely for three~four minute stretches throughout the game.

And who knows, maybe the minutes make it click for one of them and then we've got a huge windfall on our hands.

To be honest, I've been saying this about Rozier since draft day.  Before I saw him play even a minute in the NBA or D League.
 
When you look at Rozier's college highlights, you can see the potential just dripping off him. 

Things like:

1) Body control and his ability to finish tough shots around the basket
That's such a big thing for an NBA guard these days.  Just a very explosive athlete, and yet he has the physical strength to be able to take a hit, and the physical length (6'8" wingspan from memory) to be able to get his shot off.  So many highlights were you can see him taking hits, distorting his body, and somehow making the shots.  There have been NBA guards who have really excelled as scorers despite not having a good jump shot (e.g. Wade, Rose) based purely on their ability to finish with contact around the basket.  For an NBA guard to be an effective scorer these days, those skills are so important - and it's something Smart doesn't really have.  Combine that with Smart's lack of jumper and it makes it hard to envision him ever becoming more than just an average offensive player.


2) Midrange game
Again, looking at those college highlights I was really impressed by Rozier's ability to his tough midrange jumpers in a variety of scenarios - contested, fadeaways, off the dribble, with contact, pull ups, etc.  He wasn't yet constent enough with those shots in college, but the fact that he has the raw ability to make all of those types of shots is huge because 'where there is smoke, there is fire' as the saying goes - if his has some naturally ability to hit those shots already, then he has the potential to become a great midrange scorer with experience.  This is another aspect of Smart's game that just isn't there, and really never has been.

3) Quickness with the ball
All through college Rozier showed the ability to be explosive with the ball. He's got an extremely quick first step and a solid handle, and is extremely good at changing speeds, changing direction and stopping on a dime.  It's those talents that allow him to be so adept and getting to the basket pretty much at will, and that's another very important talent for a guard in the NBA game.  If you can blow by your defenders on a consistent basis with your dribble and quickness then you can create all kinda of trouble for opposing teams - think: Isaiah Thomas.   Yet another talent that Marcus Smart doesn't have.  He just doesn't have that explosive first step, or the ball handling ability.

4) Three point potential
Rozier has never been an elite three point shooter, but he's been a competent one.  He shot 33% from three over his college career (on over 3 attempts per game) and is shooting 34% from three in the D-League (on over 5 attempts per game), and he shot 40% from three in Summer League (on 3 attempts per game).  He gets good elevation on his shot, he jumps very quickly, and he has pretty solid form based on the eye test.  He hasn't played enough NBA minutes for his NBA stats to mean anything yet, but definitely has the potential to develop into a decent (perhaps even good) three point shooter - something Smart might one day do, but hasn't shown he's capable of just yet.

The above criteria are pretty much ALL you need to become a very dangerous scorer at the NBA level, so Rozier has all the tools. 

I would say his PG skills are slightly better than Smart (better ball handler, about on par as a passer) which is impressive given Smart has almost two full season of experience under his belt now - versus Rozier who has barely played.

Factor in his defensive potential (lateral quickness, length, leaping ability, determination, motor),  and his talent as a rebounder, and you have one very talented kid.

Even on draft day I thought Rozier had slightly higher upside than Smart (but also higher risk).  By now I am extremely confident that Rozier is going to become a significantly better player than Smart.   

I think Rozier has legit star potential.  As I said in my previous post, I see him as a bit of a merger between Isaiah Thomas' offensive skillset and confidence, combined with and Avery Bradley's defensive skill set and determination.  Put all that together and you have one hell of a prospect.

Don't be surprised if Rozier is taking over Bradley's starting spot a year or two from now, and maybe even Thomas' in time.

tp for the simply over the top, exuberant optimism.  i like rozier in the short time i have seen him. i dont know what his ceiling is. maybe CS is right, i dont know. but i think it will be fun to watch him develop.

[oldtype]

Edit:  Just noticed your updated post about Rozier

Thanks. I think it's a bit of hyperbole to say that he has more potential than smart over about a half-hour of total play, but he's certainly not as useless as I thought.

On separate topic: you know what, we should just start Hunter, Young, or Clarke at SF. It is at possible at least in theory that they could guard players in the SF position. If they can't, at least they don't completely mess up our tactical structure like these weird permutations of lineups Brad is putting out.

If we start a kid at SF, maybe the starting lineup gets punished a bit against teams with good offensive options at that position. On the other hand, we get to keep the bench rotations the same and aren't forced into the frankenstein's monster lineups that kill our offense completely for three~four minute stretches throughout the game.

And who knows, maybe the minutes make it click for one of them and then we've got a huge windfall on our hands.

I doubt changing the rotation would cause as many problems as giving a lot of minutes to someone who is horrible.

It's hard to imagine giving a lot of minutes to someone who is horrible would make us any worse than we are right now.