One Of These Is Marcus

[PhoSita]

I feel like we are talking about nothing really. Marcus was picked at 6 because he is a blue chip athlete based on potential and a strong defensive player and leader. What were people expecting?

I didn't know what to expect when he first came into the league.

After last season, I was expecting something like 10-12 points, 4-5 assists, 4-5 rebounds, and a couple steals.  I thought he'd manage close to 40 / 30 / 70 shooting, at least, with a couple trips to the line a game.

Yes, he's a work in progress offensively, but for a guy who's been given lots of opportunities to take a large role in the offense, I don't think those were unreasonable hopes / expectations to have for him.  My hopes are fading fast.

[jpotter33]

By the way guys, I should say, I like Smart.  I was optimistic about him having a good season this year.  I've been disappointed so far.

I went into this hoping to find some encouraging comparisons.  Guys who struggled to start their career but went on to success in much bigger roles.  For the most part, I was not able to find them.  I didn't cherry pick to ensure that the comparisons would all be underwhelming.  That's just how it turned out.

Again, if somebody wants to point out how the filters I used to create the original sample were so misleading, aside from suggesting that we should ignore Smart's offense entirely, I'm interested to hear it.

I mean, the thing is, can we really be that disappointed with how Smart has played this year? The kid has actually improved quite a bit on several things, but in his worst categories, i.e. shooting and finishing, he hasn't improved at all, which seems to cloud the real improvements he has made. Here's a rather crude breakdown (not comprehensive) of the improvements and non-improvements that I've observed of him so far:

Shooting - Bad, possibly even worse than last year, though I think his mid-range shot has actually improved (never uses it).

Finishing - Bad, possibly even worse than last year.

Penetration - Improving, he's shown that he can do it though he still doesn't do it often enough.

Ball-Handling - Improving, he's actually got much better handling the ball leading to fewer TO's.

Passing/Court Vision - Much improved, he's looked outstanding with his passing and court vision compared to last year.

Rebounding - Much improved, especially his offensive rebounding.

Individual Defense - Static, he was excellent last year and still is, though I've seen him been beat more this year than last year, which very well could be due to coming back from injuries.

Team Defense - Improving, he was good last year, but early in the year and even now he can completely dominate a game through his team defense leading to turnovers and stops.

I think this is a pretty fair evaluation of how he's looked this year, and I think his shooting and finishing woes have really overshadowed how well he's played in the rest of his game. The thing is, given all of his injuries and the fact that shooting and finishing were his worst areas previously, it's not surprising that in an injury-riddled campaign he's not got better, or even regressed, in those areas. Yes, his shooting and finishing are pretty bad right now, but to say he's overall been a disappointment is short-sighted since he's actually improved his game quite a bit.

That's how I feel anyways.

[jpotter33]

He is a very different offensive player but nothing so far says he's a worse offensive player in the middle of his second year than Payton was.

A selection of Gary Payton's performances in January of his second year in the league. (all games between 1/13 - 1/25)


15 points, 8 assists, 3 rebounds, 6-10 FG 3-4 FT

12 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 6-15 FG

19 points, 3 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 9-16 FG 1-1 FT

20 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 7-18 FG 6-6 FT

14 points, 10 assists, 1 rebounds, 1 steal, 6-12 FG 2-2 FT

17 points, 7 assists, 8 rebounds, 3 steals, 8-12 FG, 1-2 FT

19 points, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 9-13 FG, 1-1 FT


All I did there was turn to the game log for Payton's sophomore season and look at a stretch of games from the same point in the calendar.

Payton wasn't very consistent at that point in his career, of course.  If you look at a stretch of games right before that, he was putting up lines more like 8 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, that sort of thing.  But the point is, he was showing that star potential for weeks at a time.

Do you think Smart is capable of putting up a stretch of games like that right now?  I don't.  So I disagree, there's a large difference between where they were offensively at a similar point in their careers.

Yeah, I think he definitely could given the right context, role, and team.

I think people really don't understand how underwhelming Smart's offensive role in this team is, and it's not necessarily because he can't score. He's only averaging 7.4 attempts per game for his career right now, and those numbers that GP put up all averaged nearly 14 attempts per game!

[littleteapot]

He is a very different offensive player but nothing so far says he's a worse offensive player in the middle of his second year than Payton was.

A selection of Gary Payton's performances in January of his second year in the league. (all games between 1/13 - 1/25)


15 points, 8 assists, 3 rebounds, 6-10 FG 3-4 FT

12 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 6-15 FG

19 points, 3 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 9-16 FG 1-1 FT

20 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 7-18 FG 6-6 FT

14 points, 10 assists, 1 rebounds, 1 steal, 6-12 FG 2-2 FT

17 points, 7 assists, 8 rebounds, 3 steals, 8-12 FG, 1-2 FT

19 points, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 9-13 FG, 1-1 FT


All I did there was turn to the game log for Payton's sophomore season and look at a stretch of games from the same point in the calendar.

Payton wasn't very consistent at that point in his career, of course.  If you look at a stretch of games right before that, he was putting up lines more like 8 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, that sort of thing.  But the point is, he was showing that star potential for weeks at a time.

Do you think Smart is capable of putting up a stretch of games like that right now?  I don't.  So I disagree, there's a large difference between where they were offensively at a similar point in their careers.

So you're saying that Payton was streakier? Not sure why that's relevant. If you want to say he had more talent (which I would agree with) you would have to look at how they played and what they did, which would put Smart as a less talented offensive player than Payton and more than any of the statistical comps who flamed out.

[PhoSita]

I think this is a pretty fair evaluation of how he's looked this year, and I think his shooting and finishing woes have really overshadowed how well he's played in the rest of his game. The thing is, given all of his injuries and the fact that shooting and finishing were his worst areas previously, it's not surprising that in an injury-riddled campaign he's not got better, or even regressed, in those areas. Yes, his shooting and finishing are pretty bad right now, but to say he's overall been a disappointment is short-sighted since he's actually improved his game quite a bit.

That's how I feel anyways.

Good points.  Maybe this will all look like an overreaction in retrospect.  Maybe it's just injuries and he'll put together a nice second half of the season that makes this post look even sillier than it already does.

I really want that, I do. 

As I think you noted in another thread, though, staying healthy is part of this equation.  Can he do that?

[PhoSita]

So you're saying that Payton was streakier?

Oh my goodness, that's really what you got out of that?

[walker834]

Stevens even said he was nba ready defensively but his offense was going to take time.  I just don't see where the  big lie is. It more seems like people are lying to themselves.

[jpotter33]

I think this is a pretty fair evaluation of how he's looked this year, and I think his shooting and finishing woes have really overshadowed how well he's played in the rest of his game. The thing is, given all of his injuries and the fact that shooting and finishing were his worst areas previously, it's not surprising that in an injury-riddled campaign he's not got better, or even regressed, in those areas. Yes, his shooting and finishing are pretty bad right now, but to say he's overall been a disappointment is short-sighted since he's actually improved his game quite a bit.

That's how I feel anyways.

Good points.  Maybe this will all look like an overreaction in retrospect.  Maybe it's just injuries and he'll put together a nice second half of the season that makes this post look even sillier than it already does.

I really want that, I do. 

As I think you noted in another thread, though, staying healthy is part of this equation.  Can he do that?

That's the ultimate question. But the hope is by that point he would have bettered his offensive and shooting game to compensate for the missed time/reps. He's still developing, which is why injuries could be so influential in his game this year as compared to later years.

I think one of the main reasons why I am a heavy supporter of Smart's potential and him ultimately being more than a defensive role player is due to his BBIQ, work ethic, and motor. I mean, watching him play defense out there is mind-blowing at times, because you can physically see him being steps in front of the person he's guarding.

In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Rondo, because you can tell at least defensively, though Smart's passing is starting to get there, too, that he's just operating much faster and at a different level than other guys. Both Rondo and Smart have/had that quality (in different ways, obviously), and it's hard to think that someone like that won't eventually reach All-Star status, at least for several years.

[tomrod]

Hey, I did something similar. Without looking previously at your filters, I actually looked for guards and forwards, cause I had a feeling that because of his build he may compare fairly to good forwards. It came to be that Draymond Green was there leading the group in Win shares, with Smart coming second. The rest were the same (I think) mediocre players.

The point is not that Smart compares favorably to Green, cause this skillset as a Forward is more valuable (although the comparison is a positive spin), but that Green is also in bad company here (forwards like Bass, Babbit and Singleton are the best of the rest), so you can probably do this with a lot of players, there's always exceptions to the rule when you look for comparisons for players that are yet to establish themselves in the league.

My favorite stats are Win Shares and real plus minus, that seem to tell the full story. In real plus minus Smart was 12th last season in PG's, we'll see how he ends up this year. In Win shares he is top 3 in his draft class.