If you believe Boston + other 2014 lotto teams will make East's top 8...

[saltlover]

There's a significant amount of revisionist history going on here. Pierce didn't really matter much during the regular season; his impact was in the playoffs.

Washington's not falling out of the playoffs because they lost Paul Pierce, of all people. Beal seems to be making a leap this season and Wall's an All-Star, All-NBA point guard. They're a lock as long as those two are healthy.

But staying healthy is anything but guaranteed.  Beal has missed significant time in 2 of his first 3 seasons, and is already hurt again, although the severity is in question.  And if Wall goes down, they've got no prayer, even if Beal is healthy.

It's perfectly reasonable to look at a team and see a lack of depth as a reason they will not succeed over 82 games.  Washington is a team that could easily find themselves going 2-10 over a 12-game stretch due to some injuries, and it's not clear that they're a team capable of going on a corresponding run to make up for it.

I'm of the opinion that one of Miami or Washington will miss due to health reasons.  I'm just not sure which one it will be.  My gut says Washington, but my heart says Miami.

[Lucky17]

Detroit: zero offensive contributions from the bench to be a consistent winner. Could see the team grabbing a road playoff berth in the East, but no higher.

Milwaukee: anemic offensive, doomed by a lack of shooting. Sheer athleticism and defensive effort will keep them relevant, but I think they miss the playoffs.

Cleveland, Atlanta, and Toronto repeat as division winners, although not by the same margin as they did last year.

Bulls, Wizards, and Heat are all relatively deep teams with a mix of steady vets, second-tier superstars, and young athletes. I think they all manage to grind out playoff berths in the East.

That leaves two slots. I definitely think Detroit is in the mix for one of those, but so are Central Division rivals Pacers and Bucks (who eventually fall by the wayside).

Boston and -- dare I say it -- the Knicks will also be in contention thanks to playing in the same division as Philly and Brooklyn.

I think those last two slots will go to the 3rd best team in the Central (I'll pick Detroit) and the 2nd best team in the Atlantic (go Celts).

[Csfan1984]

Playoff 8
Heat, deep has stars and vets.
Cavs, big three
Bulls, vets and loaded bench.
Raptors, medium 3 and chemistry
Wizards, stars driven
Hawks, Vets
Bucks, too much talent to be held back
Knicks/Pacers, Star driven and a few vets

Just missed
Knicks/Pacers
Pistons, Streaky team
C's, deep bench but also streaky
Magic, Growing team

[fairweatherfan]

In defense of Milwaukee missing: never denied they have talent, but it's not an easy fit. I see them missing as they stumble through figuring it out. Doesn't help that Jabari likely won't be in 100% physical shape for a few more months and 100% basketball shape until after the season.

I respect your opinion but I don't necessarily agree with it. I think the talent fits quite well. Giannis is the dynamic, big, athletic guy while Monroe is your rock in the Center (and isn't out of position at PF anymore). Parker is already playing and given the reverse baseline slam on the Knicks the other night (http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/11/6/9686264/jabari-parker-acl-injury-basline-dunk-knicks-bucks) I'd say that he's well along in his rehab. He's not 100% right now but I think he'll be quite effective after the All-Star break. In the meanwhile they also still have Middleton and MCW...that's just too much talent to miss the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (insert injury caveat here).

The Bucks look great on paper, but for some reason -- to me at least -- they aren't passing the eye test and I question whether replacing BKnight with MCW was a good move.

On paper, everyone likes the bigger/younger upside guy coming off the ROY season.  But it does seem they lost some element of leadership when they handed the keys to the young 6ers product.  Their other cornerstone, Monroe, is another whose been groomed on losing NBA basketball.

The other intangible they have drifted away from his spacing.  MCW and Monroe are not nearly as capable to space the floor as Knight and Dudley were last year.  Those two let their 4-out system flourish and we saw the likes of Middleton & Giannis breaking out.  Now that those two have to share the court with Monroe and MCW, they'll certainly see a lot more defenses collapsing around them.  To the extent which, I predict the Bucks struggle to score all year long. 

Who is going to lead this group when the going gets tough? 
Parker or Middleton?  MCW or Monroe? 
They could really use a vet in that rotation, losing Dudley hurt them in that respect.

Agree with all of this, particularly the spacing - with Monroe as a traditional around-the-rim big, their ideal offense surrounds him with a perimeter full of shooters and slashers.  They've got the slashers, but outside of Middleton their shooters tend to be streaky or just plain poor (like MCW).  Right now they're struggling to figure it out and getting clogged up regularly on O.  Knight would've been a good fit with this bunch, but I think Kidd preferred MCW's length and hoped to fix his shot over time.

That said they should make the playoffs, but the chances of missing out are I think higher than people expect.  Remember almost all of their key players have never played on a squad that finished over .500. 

[Lucky17]

It's going to be tough sledding against the rest of the Central Division for the Bucks. Really competitive division. They can't afford to lose games against Detroit or Indiana.

[Evantime34]

Right now I would say

Cleveland
Atlanta
Toronto
Washington
Detroit ( I think they trade for bench players that allow them to keep killing it. Drummond is a 20/20 threat every night)
Chicago
Boston
Miami (I'm expecting more injuries)

The Bucks don't have enough shooting and their point guard play has been really bad.

[Evantime34]

edit double post.

[Endless Paradise]

There's a significant amount of revisionist history going on here. Pierce didn't really matter much during the regular season; his impact was in the playoffs.

Washington's not falling out of the playoffs because they lost Paul Pierce, of all people. Beal seems to be making a leap this season and Wall's an All-Star, All-NBA point guard. They're a lock as long as those two are healthy.

But staying healthy is anything but guaranteed.  Beal has missed significant time in 2 of his first 3 seasons, and is already hurt again, although the severity is in question.  And if Wall goes down, they've got no prayer, even if Beal is healthy.

It's perfectly reasonable to look at a team and see a lack of depth as a reason they will not succeed over 82 games.  Washington is a team that could easily find themselves going 2-10 over a 12-game stretch due to some injuries, and it's not clear that they're a team capable of going on a corresponding run to make up for it.

I'm of the opinion that one of Miami or Washington will miss due to health reasons.  I'm just not sure which one it will be.  My gut says Washington, but my heart says Miami.

Sure, but those weren't the reasons posited in the first two posts.

[slamtheking]

If you're like me and believe the Celts will make the playoffs and 2014 lotto teams like Detroit, Miami, and Indiana will make it (New York, Charlotte and Orlando also deserve a role in this conversation), who falls out of the picture? Here's how I see it:

I think the playoff picture this year is a swap out of the C's and Nets for Miami and Indy.

[DarkAzcura]

I think the Bucks have too much talent to miss the playoffs in the East. Any team in the East that can put Giannis, Monroe, Parker, Khris Middleton and MCW on the court at the same time is simply too good to miss. You could easily argue that Giannis, Monroe and Parker are better than any player on the Celtics' squad.

Nor can I see Detroit being the top squad in the East. There's simply not enough talent. They started off 5-1 but let's not go hog-wild - there's always a team that starts hot and doesn't make the playoffs. The real meat of their schedule seems to come later in the season. As you said, they also play in a very competitive division.

Barring injuries, Cleveland, Atlanta, Toronto, Mil and Chicago should all be shoo-ins (though that Bulls team seems to have no identity at this point). So I see Indy, Detroit, Boston, Miami and Washington fighting for those final three playoff spots. Of that group, I have no idea who will and won't make it. My guess is Washington (due to the loss of PP) and Miami (age, injuries) fall out of that bunch, but it could just as easily be the Celtics who don't get in. I've said all along that Boston could be a better team this year and not make the playoffs and that could easily happen.

As for Brooklyn, I've been one of the biggest "don't trade the [dang] pick" proponents on this forum for the last year. I see nothing thus far that would change my mind. I thought that pick could be a top five choice and that's looking pretty good right now.

You are overrating the Bucks' talent quite a lot. Kinda odd to read back to back paragraphs hyping up the Bucks' talent so much only to say Detroit doesn't have much talent. Doesn't really compute for me, imo. Also, it cannot be easily argued that Parker or Monroe are better than any player on the Celtics. Parker is essentially a rookie coming off an ACL tear. No one knows how good he will be. Way too quick to put him on that pedestal. Monroe is talented offensively but terrible defensively at a position where it is actually super important to play defense. Giannis is their best two way player by a long shot, though. That I will give you.

MCW and "too good" should not be in the same sentence of anything. He can't score, and he isn't a good enough passer to make up for it ala Rondo.

So yeah I'd argue that Drummond and Jackson are better players than anybody on the Bucks, and they actually fit well together unlike the Bucks' roster of poor fits.

[wiley]

If you're like me and believe the Celts will make the playoffs and 2014 lotto teams like Detroit, Miami, and Indiana will make it (New York, Charlotte and Orlando also deserve a role in this conversation), who falls out of the picture? Here's how I see it:

I think the playoff picture this year is a swap out of the C's and Nets for Miami and Indy.

I certainly agree with you that New York doesn't belong in the picture...

Agree that the 7th and 8th spots will taken by two of Boston, Indy, Detroit, and Milwaukee. Edge to Detroit for the 7th spot until they slip up...And edge to Milwaukee for 8th spot.
Washington is very good.  They were good before Pierce got there too.  Orlando is now a good team, just way too inexperienced to be a threat.  They'll be a chief rival of the Celtics as both teams gather steam.

[wiley]

I think the Bucks have too much talent to miss the playoffs in the East. Any team in the East that can put Giannis, Monroe, Parker, Khris Middleton and MCW on the court at the same time is simply too good to miss. You could easily argue that Giannis, Monroe and Parker are better than any player on the Celtics' squad.

Nor can I see Detroit being the top squad in the East. There's simply not enough talent. They started off 5-1 but let's not go hog-wild - there's always a team that starts hot and doesn't make the playoffs. The real meat of their schedule seems to come later in the season. As you said, they also play in a very competitive division.

Barring injuries, Cleveland, Atlanta, Toronto, Mil and Chicago should all be shoo-ins (though that Bulls team seems to have no identity at this point). So I see Indy, Detroit, Boston, Miami and Washington fighting for those final three playoff spots. Of that group, I have no idea who will and won't make it. My guess is Washington (due to the loss of PP) and Miami (age, injuries) fall out of that bunch, but it could just as easily be the Celtics who don't get in. I've said all along that Boston could be a better team this year and not make the playoffs and that could easily happen.

As for Brooklyn, I've been one of the biggest "don't trade the [dang] pick" proponents on this forum for the last year. I see nothing thus far that would change my mind. I thought that pick could be a top five choice and that's looking pretty good right now.

You are overrating the Bucks' talent quite a lot. Kinda odd to read back to back paragraphs hyping up the Bucks' talent so much only to say Detroit doesn't have much talent. Doesn't really compute for me, imo. Also, it cannot be easily argued that Parker or Monroe are better than any player on the Celtics. Parker is essentially a rookie coming off an ACL tear. No one knows how good he will be. Way too quick to put him on that pedestal. Monroe is talented offensively but terrible defensively at a position where it is actually super important to play defense. Giannis is their best two way player by a long shot, though. That I will give you.

MCW and "too good" should not be in the same sentence of anything. He can't score, and he isn't a good enough passer to make up for it ala Rondo.

So yeah I'd argue that Drummond and Jackson are better players than anybody on the Bucks, and they actually fit well together unlike the Bucks' roster of poor fits.

Drummond for sure.  Jackson I don't think so...If he were on the bucks I think he'd fit right in as an equal to Middleton, Monroe and Giannis, with Parker catching up to those three.  The Bucks have some good intangibles going I think.  They're a competitive group.  I'd be surprised if they can't make the 8th seed.  Indy is a wildcard right now.  I can see them being the 7th or 8th seed or missing the playoffs by quite a bit due to lack of production up front.

[Denis998]

From what I have been seeing so far, Chicago coach is terrible, and he rather award veterans with playing time despite their performance; I can see them missing the playoffs.

Terrible is subjective, but Hoiberg's put Noah on the bench for Mirotic and brought McDermott into the core rotation.  I don't think he's just giving minutes to veterans just cuz.  There's a question of whether his strategy fits their personnel well, though.

my issue with him is how bobby portis was a top 5 rookie in the preseason, and he hasn't even gave bobby a chance to earn his mins. Also the whole butler and rose situation has gotten out of hand, no way a coach should let that type of thing between them happen.

[max215]

Detroit passes the eye test so far, and it looks like they have a great young core in Drummond, Jackson, KCP, and Johnson, but their lack of depth worries me this year. With the impending cap explosion they should be able to fortify their bench and solidify their spot as a really good team in the East next year though.

[chambers]

Here are the tiers in the East (to me).
Top 5:
1) Cleveland- will finish with best record in the East.
2) ATL great regular season team. Won't beat Cleveland in playoffs, Heat could beat them too.
3) Miami-even with an injury to Wade or Bosh, they are very deep. A great regular season squad. Dunno about playoffs yet.
4) Toronto- Carroll has made them pretty good, Lowry and DeRozan worked their butts off this summer and it's showing.
5) Chicago- working out their offense. Rose starting look like a solid co-leader next to Butler again. They need Dunleavy and Hinrich back. Mirotic is stinking it up early on which is worrisome, but McDermott looks very good on O, still working on his D.

Teams that will be fighting for 6,7,8 in no particular order: Only three of these teams will make the playoffs so it will be tough but I think we are more likely to be 6th seed than 8th/9th.(maybe even 5th with some good three point shooting).
6) Boston- considering our depth, we could make top 8 at the top of the 2nd tier of teams in the East.
7) Detroit-brutal pick and roll with Drummond/Reggie. Need to shoot well from deep. Should make top 8.
8.) Washington- Wall+Beal should mean playoffs. Porter is getting better and better. Could be worse than expected. Can see them getting torched in playoffs.
9) Milwaulkee- A lot of talent. Can they make it all work together after 50 games? The last 30 games will be huge for them. I question if MCW is the right fit at PG.
10) Indiana- probably not as good as they look, although PG looks better than ever, and he's probably capable of carrying a team to the playoffs on his own, especially with help from Ellis and G Hill. Gonna be very close for them.[/b]


Bottom 5 in order:
11) Charlotte- could fight for 8th seed if they avoid injuries.
12) Knicks
13) Magic-may finish ahead of Knicks. Hope they don't and get a better pick than NY.
14) Brooklyn- if Lopez' foot make him sit 25+ games then they'll be worse than Philly.
15)76ers