Nylon Calculus Projected Wins-Sweet!!

[Moranis]

  Teague, DeMarre Carrol, Sefolosha and Dennis Schroder weren't anything to write home about as young players.  Heck, Carrol was a total scrub until he turned 27 and Kyle Korver could barely get on the court as a rookie.

I agree that the Celts have a lot of guys who could "pop" like the ones you mentioned if they found themselves in the right situation.

Having two All-Stars in the frontcourt has a tendency to allow that to happen.  I think Teague was a bit of a late bloomer, too, though he always had the core prototype point guard skills to make a leap.  Kyle Korver, as a pure shooter with below average athleticism, is a classic late bloomer, as well, though I don't think anybody expected him to shoot dang near 50% on a very high volume of three pointers for an entire season.

Teague has gotten better every year and he didn't have a massive jump this past season.  He was a bit more efficient but that is about the only change from the prior year. 

Korver has been one of the best shooters for awhile.  Heck he shot 53.6% his last year in Utah. 

Even Carroll who definitely shot the ball at a higher percentage last year, but otherwise was basically the same player from the prior year. 

This notion that all of the Hawks all of a sudden became awesome is just silly.  The 2 younger starters continually improved until the whole team came together last year.  Good teams definitely help with efficiency, but that is pretty much what it was.  Al Horford being healthy was the real difference between the 38 win team and the 60 win team.  I think losing Carroll will hurt them a bit, but I don't expect this massive drop off either.  The Hawks should still be a 50 win team as long as Horford, Millsap, and Teague are relatively healthy.

I just don't see that in Boston because I don't see as much progression or progression from a point that would dictate that guy could be a star (except for possibly Smart).  I mean Olynyk looks better, but nothing about him says star.  Sullinger hasn't improved much at all.  He may already be at his peak.  Crowder's efficiency actually got a great deal worse after he came over from Dallas, though that may be expected with the increased minutes.  Bradley got worse last year and appears to be at his peak.  Thomas is who he is.  Smart is the only guy you can look at and say, well he may someday be as good as Horford, or he may not, but that day is certainly not today.  Zeller is a backup center not much else.  Johnson and Lee are nice players, but they aren't Horford and Millsap.  They don't have the all around games or the versatility of those two.

[littleteapot]

I think part of the Hawks success is that they had the guts to start Korver every game and leave him on the floor regardless of who he had to guard. I wonder how good the Bulls could have been if they had done this.

[LooseCannon]

That is the flaw that I see in this projection.  But we shall see.  I actually don't care if we make the playoffs this year or not.  Clearly it will be a little more interesting if we do win more games but whether we do or not, we still have some team building to do.

The Celts have gone all in for the 5th seed for this season, albeit without leveraging future assets, so I want them to do as well as possible.  I'll be bummed if they give lots of minutes to guys with no future here like David Lee and Amir Johnson only to end up missing the playoffs, or getting swept in the 1st round again.

So long as we get a lottery pick or two from the Nets / Mavs, I'm just fine with the Celts pushing hard for the middle.

Johnson and Lee aren't necessarily guys with no future here.  I consider Johnson to be a better bet than Sullinger to provide close to the same level of value as Millsap, albeit in different ways.

[PhoSita]

That is the flaw that I see in this projection.  But we shall see.  I actually don't care if we make the playoffs this year or not.  Clearly it will be a little more interesting if we do win more games but whether we do or not, we still have some team building to do.

The Celts have gone all in for the 5th seed for this season, albeit without leveraging future assets, so I want them to do as well as possible.  I'll be bummed if they give lots of minutes to guys with no future here like David Lee and Amir Johnson only to end up missing the playoffs, or getting swept in the 1st round again.

So long as we get a lottery pick or two from the Nets / Mavs, I'm just fine with the Celts pushing hard for the middle.

Johnson and Lee aren't necessarily guys with no future here.  I consider Johnson to be a better bet than Sullinger to provide close to the same level of value as Millsap, albeit in different ways.

I'll be surprised if Lee or Amir is here next season, and even more surprised if either is here two years from now.

I think both of those guys are in Boston this year to pump up their value and then cash in big time next summer when everybody has cap space.  I could see Amir sticking around for the second year of his deal if the Celts can't find a better use for their cap space next summer and he's happy to be in Boston for another season.

For the Celts, having Lee and Amir on board gives them a shot at more meaningful playoff experience for some of the younger guys who might have a future here.

Getting that experience doesn't carry the same kind of cost it might otherwise (e.g. Justise Winslow) because the Celts are relying on the Nets and Mavs to be bad enough to supply the juicy lottery picks.

[Moranis]

I think part of the Hawks success is that they had the guts to start Korver every game and leave him on the floor regardless of who he had to guard. I wonder how good the Bulls could have been if they had done this.

The Hawks are also a regular season team and not built for the playoffs.  They don't have that go to end of the game scorer you so often need come crunch time in the playoffs.  They lucked out that Wall was injured or they probably would have lost that series.  I just don't see that as the model to follow.  You need at least 1 MVP level player to have any real shot at winning a NBA championship.  The Hawks don't have that and Boston certainly does not.  I don't want to see Boston get stuck in Hawks land where Boston has a real nice team that could win a playoff series (or two if it gets the breaks), but never be a real threat to a top level team.  I'd almost rather see 25 wins than 50 for that reason, though I do expect Boston to be an upper 30 lower 40 win team and what might eventually amount to another lost year depending on free agency and the draft.

[Ilikesports17]

I think part of the Hawks success is that they had the guts to start Korver every game and leave him on the floor regardless of who he had to guard. I wonder how good the Bulls could have been if they had done this.

The Hawks are also a regular season team and not built for the playoffs.  They don't have that go to end of the game scorer you so often need come crunch time in the playoffs.  They lucked out that Wall was injured or they probably would have lost that series.  I just don't see that as the model to follow.  You need at least 1 MVP level player to have any real shot at winning a NBA championship.  The Hawks don't have that and Boston certainly does not.  I don't want to see Boston get stuck in Hawks land where Boston has a real nice team that could win a playoff series (or two if it gets the breaks), but never be a real threat to a top level team.  I'd almost rather see 25 wins than 50 for that reason, though I do expect Boston to be an upper 30 lower 40 win team and what might eventually amount to another lost year depending on free agency and the draft.

The Hawks battled some injuries too, so I think it might be a bit unfair to deem them an unsuccessful playoff model.

That being said, I agree.

I actually think we could have a really good record in a really unfortunate way.

I mean is it at all unlikely for the following to happen:

David Lee and Amir are our two best bigs. ET continues to be a primary ball handler and with an improved shot is even more effective than down the stretch last year. Sully is a beast off the bench grabbing boards and scoring in the low block. The genius of Brad keeps team chemistry high and everyone playing their best. His incredible amount of depth allows him to gameplane for every team and allows him to play a fresh player nearly all the time. The depth also makes the C's more or less impervious to injuries, so during the drudgery of the deep winter when other teams begin to see wear and tear the C's accelerate cruising to a 50 win season. I think its possible. But that would be regular season success I think we could see that team get handled in the playoffs due to a lack of high level talent and then turn around and lose 3 or 4 of their most important guys.

The thing with us and the Hawks is that people compare the two because neither have stars. However the Hawks have a high level starting lineup.

Teague, Korver, Carroll, Horford, Millsapp are good starters then Schroeder and a few of the bench guys are also good. The Hawks have 6+ 3-5th options The Celtics on the other hand have 10+ 4-7th options and I think the difference is actually pretty substantial.

[Ilikesports17]

I think part of the Hawks success is that they had the guts to start Korver every game and leave him on the floor regardless of who he had to guard. I wonder how good the Bulls could have been if they had done this.

The Hawks are also a regular season team and not built for the playoffs.  They don't have that go to end of the game scorer you so often need come crunch time in the playoffs.  They lucked out that Wall was injured or they probably would have lost that series.  I just don't see that as the model to follow.  You need at least 1 MVP level player to have any real shot at winning a NBA championship.  The Hawks don't have that and Boston certainly does not.  I don't want to see Boston get stuck in Hawks land where Boston has a real nice team that could win a playoff series (or two if it gets the breaks), but never be a real threat to a top level team.  I'd almost rather see 25 wins than 50 for that reason, though I do expect Boston to be an upper 30 lower 40 win team and what might eventually amount to another lost year depending on free agency and the draft.

The Hawks battled some injuries too, so I think it might be a bit unfair to deem them an unsuccessful playoff model.

That being said, I agree.

I actually think we could have a really good record in a really unfortunate way.

I mean is it at all unlikely for the following to happen:

David Lee and Amir are our two best bigs. ET continues to be a primary ball handler and with an improved shot is even more effective than down the stretch last year. Sully is a beast off the bench grabbing boards and scoring in the low block. The genius of Brad keeps team chemistry high and everyone playing their best. His incredible amount of depth allows him to gameplane for every team and allows him to play a fresh player nearly all the time. The depth also makes the C's more or less impervious to injuries, so during the drudgery of the deep winter when other teams begin to see wear and tear the C's accelerate cruising to a 50 win season. I think its possible. But that would be regular season success I think we could see that team get handled in the playoffs due to a lack of high level talent and then turn around and lose 3 or 4 of their most important guys.

The thing with us and the Hawks is that people compare the two because neither have stars. However the Hawks have a high level starting lineup.

Teague, Korver, Carroll, Horford, Millsapp are good starters then Schroeder and a few of the bench guys are also good. The Hawks have 6+ 3-5th options The Celtics on the other hand have 10+ 4-7th options and I think the difference is actually pretty substantial.

Now let me also say it could be even more said and that scenario could unfold except insteado f 50 wins we get 40 or 35.

It could also be much happier as I could envision a world where AB makes the small improvements he talked about(gets back to great D, back door cuts and also turns those deep 2s into 3s and shoots ~40%) I could see Crowder upping that 3pt% to 34% and turning in great D on opposing wings. Most importantly I could see Marcus Smart getting to the line way more, and showing signs of a franchise pg. Then I could see Lee, a Brooklyn pick, Young , Hunter whatever it may be getting shipped off to add a big piece, then that team could cruise to a much happier 50 win season