Zach Lowe Predictions (Merged)

[KeepRondo]

It’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.

I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.

But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face.

Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.

I'm not sure I buy that logic.  Why trade Young just to trade him?  You would think long term Young has more value than some unknown, presumably late 1st round pick (the only team that would trade a 1st for Young is a team that is good and thinks Young might help them get over the top and thus the pick would be a later 1st).  I mean it is one thing if you can unload Young for multiple assets, but why get rid of a goodish relatively young player for a late 1st round pick.  It just doesn't make sense especially since getting worse doesn't help them where their own pick is concerned.

I do agree that I don't think they trade Johnson for lesser players on longer contracts (though wouldn't be surprised if they moved him in some sort of trade) and that they might move Lopez if they get a strong enough offer.  Those moves or non-moves make some sense given where they currently are, but it would have to be a darn good offer for Lopez, something with multiple 1sts and/or relatively high level prospects and I'm not sure that offer exists.

I think it does make sense to trade Young with say Dallas's draft pick to move up a few spots in the draft. But that's a long way from now.

Thad Young

Oh. Well I guess I can understand the Nets wanting to trade him to get a younger player in the draft but it seems like they like him there.

[Smartacus]

It’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.

I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.

But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face.

Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.

I'm not sure I buy that logic.  Why trade Young just to trade him?  You would think long term Young has more value than some unknown, presumably late 1st round pick (the only team that would trade a 1st for Young is a team that is good and thinks Young might help them get over the top and thus the pick would be a later 1st).  I mean it is one thing if you can unload Young for multiple assets, but why get rid of a goodish relatively young player for a late 1st round pick.  It just doesn't make sense especially since getting worse doesn't help them where their own pick is concerned.

I do agree that I don't think they trade Johnson for lesser players on longer contracts (though wouldn't be surprised if they moved him in some sort of trade) and that they might move Lopez if they get a strong enough offer.  Those moves or non-moves make some sense given where they currently are, but it would have to be a darn good offer for Lopez, something with multiple 1sts and/or relatively high level prospects and I'm not sure that offer exists.

I think it does make sense to trade Young with say Dallas's draft pick to move up a few spots in the draft. But that's a long way from now.

Thad Young

I'm not banking on Lopez having another season ending injury but at this point you do have to consider it. If that's the case, Young becomes a good deal more expendable. Maybe Thomas Robinson finally develops and a fringe contender throws up a good offer for Johnson and/or Young kind of like Memphis did with Jeff Green last year.

I'm still sticking to my original projection that the pick will fall in the 9-13 range, but I'm starting to entertain the idea that Brooklyn tears it down and starts over as more than wishful Boston fan thinking.

[Lucky17]

What about Indiana as a buyer for Sully/Young?

[sofutomygaha]

What about Indiana as a buyer for Sully/Young?

They could definitely use both players. What do you see them offering, though, and are we really going to help them when they are competing with us for a playoff spot?

[KeepRondo]

What about Indiana as a buyer for Sully/Young?

Yep. Sully would be a good fit there.

[Lucky17]

What about Indiana as a buyer for Sully/Young?

They could definitely use both players. What do you see them offering, though, and are we really going to help them when they are competing with us for a playoff spot?

Yeah, those are the questions. Although I do think that both Indiana and Boston should make the playoffs.

If you could get a single 1st rounder in the 15-20 range, plus expiring contracts, would that be an acceptable return for both Sully and Young?

[KeepRondo]

What about Indiana as a buyer for Sully/Young?

They could definitely use both players. What do you see them offering, though, and are we really going to help them when they are competing with us for a playoff spot?

A future first round pick.

[slamtheking]

It’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.

I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.

But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face.

Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.

I'm not sure I buy that logic.  Why trade Young just to trade him?  You would think long term Young has more value than some unknown, presumably late 1st round pick (the only team that would trade a 1st for Young is a team that is good and thinks Young might help them get over the top and thus the pick would be a later 1st).  I mean it is one thing if you can unload Young for multiple assets, but why get rid of a goodish relatively young player for a late 1st round pick.  It just doesn't make sense especially since getting worse doesn't help them where their own pick is concerned.

I do agree that I don't think they trade Johnson for lesser players on longer contracts (though wouldn't be surprised if they moved him in some sort of trade) and that they might move Lopez if they get a strong enough offer.  Those moves or non-moves make some sense given where they currently are, but it would have to be a darn good offer for Lopez, something with multiple 1sts and/or relatively high level prospects and I'm not sure that offer exists.

I think it does make sense to trade Young with say Dallas's draft pick to move up a few spots in the draft. But that's a long way from now.

Thad Young

I don't think it's that farfetched.  Thad is a solid player but not a star by any means.  Nets have got to rebuild at some point and their own picks the next few years are not an option for them.  Using the 3 notable players they have now to bring in young players with upside and some first rounders would not be a bad move for them.  standing pat with what they have will just continue to make them worse with no immediate hope of improving.  Free agency will be thin the next couple of years in terms of stars and if the recent trend of players going to better teams (instead of basing their decisions on market-size) continues, Nets won't be attracting anyone any time soon

[sofutomygaha]

What about Indiana as a buyer for Sully/Young?

They could definitely use both players. What do you see them offering, though, and are we really going to help them when they are competing with us for a playoff spot?

A future first round pick.

I don't hate this.

[mef730]

It’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.

I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.

But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face.

Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.

Lowe's logic is very sound. Of course, that rarely transfers over. I don't see the team going nuclear, even though that would likely be the best option for them now. what looked like a promising free agent class got very weak, with all the recent re-signings, so we know that they won't be signing two superstars next year and could, in fact, end up overpaying for FAs. Best long-term bet is to forget 2016 and try to assemble a few good draft picks for the 2017 draft and save money for that FA class. The question is whether they are ready to accept the enormity of their mistake and start again.

Conceptually, I understand the desire to keep BLopez and hope that he will eventually attract FAs, but does he have that kind of cache? If you get two superstars together and they decide to look for a team with a third player that will make them contenders, I can't imagine he ranks high on that list.

Mike

[Moranis]

It’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.

I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.

But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face.

Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.

I'm not sure I buy that logic.  Why trade Young just to trade him?  You would think long term Young has more value than some unknown, presumably late 1st round pick (the only team that would trade a 1st for Young is a team that is good and thinks Young might help them get over the top and thus the pick would be a later 1st).  I mean it is one thing if you can unload Young for multiple assets, but why get rid of a goodish relatively young player for a late 1st round pick.  It just doesn't make sense especially since getting worse doesn't help them where their own pick is concerned.

I do agree that I don't think they trade Johnson for lesser players on longer contracts (though wouldn't be surprised if they moved him in some sort of trade) and that they might move Lopez if they get a strong enough offer.  Those moves or non-moves make some sense given where they currently are, but it would have to be a darn good offer for Lopez, something with multiple 1sts and/or relatively high level prospects and I'm not sure that offer exists.

I think it does make sense to trade Young with say Dallas's draft pick to move up a few spots in the draft. But that's a long way from now.

Thad Young

I don't think it's that farfetched.  Thad is a solid player but not a star by any means.  Nets have got to rebuild at some point and their own picks the next few years are not an option for them.  Using the 3 notable players they have now to bring in young players with upside and some first rounders would not be a bad move for them.  standing pat with what they have will just continue to make them worse with no immediate hope of improving.  Free agency will be thin the next couple of years in terms of stars and if the recent trend of players going to better teams (instead of basing their decisions on market-size) continues, Nets won't be attracting anyone any time soon

He was basically saying trade Young for a 1st round pick.  The only teams that would give up a 1st round pick for Young are good teams (and that may be a stretch).  The odds of a player drafted at the end of the 1st round ever being better than Young are pretty darn small and certainly not any time soon.  Since Brooklyn doesn't own their own picks for the life of Young's contract, there is absolutely no reason to trade Young for a late 1st round pick.  Now if they can get multiple 1sts and/or multiple assets, maybe that is something to consider, but trading Young just to trade him doesn't make sense given his age, contract particulars, and Brooklyn's situation.

[Jarrin John]

… The odds of a player drafted at the end of the 1st round ever being better than Young are pretty darn small and certainly not any time soon …

I'll take the two we drafted late this year over Young, today and going forward.

[Big333223]

16. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk Will Be Boston’s Best Big-Man Combo

For purposes of this prediction, we’re counting on-court/off-court plus-minus splits for two-man combinations among Johnson, Olynyk, Tyler Zeller, David Lee, and Jared Sullinger.2 The Zeller-Lee combo seems to be Brad Stevens’s preferred starting lineup choice, but Johnson is going to play a ton — I bet he starts at some point during the season — and his game meshes well with Olynyk’s on both ends.

This is an interesting one to me, because if it turns out to be workable defensively, the C's could put out a lineup with five 3-point shooters.

17. Dallas Makes a Run at Keeping Its Pick, Falls Short

I’m worried about the Mavs and poor Dirk. They could be set up for a fascinating internal debate between Mark Cuban, a shark who knows when to strike, and Rick Carlisle, a coach who once lambasted the Warriors in a competition committee meeting for their late-season tankery in 2012, per league sources.

Parsons and Wesley Matthews will play at some point, probably soon, but it may take them months to start humming after major offseason surgeries. It’s unclear how the Mavs will defend the basket with Samuel Dalembert, always late and out of shape, as their only rim protector. A full-on Deron Williams resurrection seems like a lot to ask after years of leg and ankle issues.

The Mavs owe a top-seven-protected first-rounder to Boston, and if things go badly enough early, you could see them spiraling toward one of the league’s seven worst records. Shut down the recovering wings, clean up one of Dirk’s joints, and stink all spring.

But list the league’s worst teams and you’ll discover it’d be pretty hard for the Mavs to finish in the bottom seven unless they tank early. And they’re not going to do that. [Cut to Danny Ainge rubbing his hands together.]

This would be great. I love reading it from someone who writes nationally because I've been thinking it for a while but worried that it was homerism. But Man, it would be great to make the playoffs and still have 2 lottery picks.

[Drucci]

Zach Lowe posted his "35 crazy predictions" for the 2015-2016 season, among which he predicts that both Sullinger and Young will get traded (although he doesn't goes as far as predicting who we would get in return) :

Danny Ainge loves both of these guys, league sources say, but Sullinger is last in a long line of big men — and he’s a David Falk client due a new contract after this season. Sullinger alone may not fetch much on the open market; he’s a defensive liability with conditioning issues and a 3-pointer that never quite materialized. There are teams that could use another big man, but it’s hard to see Boston getting a quality asset for Sullinger.

Add Young, and you might get something. Young is just 20, so it’s understandable that he’s behind so many guards on this 15-deep roster. But it’s unclear if he’ll play in Year 2, and after that, teams already have to start thinking about contract extensions. The Celtics could have 13 players back next season, plus three first-round picks — taking them one player over the 15-man limit. They have to do something at some point.

They could stand pat, of course. Ainge is saving his best ammo for a star. But it’s hard to find the next youngish star, beyond DeMarcus Cousins (and maybe Kevin Love), that could hit the trade market in the next 18 months.

With that in mind, here’s a random bonus prediction: Some team will make a big trade offer for a young sub-star who just signed a new contract or a player about to become a restricted free agent. Tobias Harris comes to mind as a candidate for this kind of deal. (Channing Frye is also available, by the way.) A team in Orlando’s position has no real reason to deal Harris; with the cap rising, almost every contract is somewhere between good and acceptable.

But that same logic could motivate a suitor to overpay for a good but flawed young or midcareer player — especially if that suitor concludes that no superstar is likely to become available soon.

He also predicts that Amir Johnson and Olynyk will be Boston's best big duo.