What numbers do you expect a healthy and slimmer Sullinger to put up?

[Csfan1984]

Taking that to the next level, then: do you feel comfortable paying Sullinger for what you think he could do in 30+ minutes if he's only managing 22 this season?

You have to come in based 22mpg. Offer pay on that. His Agent will come back at 36mpg. You hit them with the injuries and conditioning history. Both come to 28mpg max projection. Paying based on that should be fair.

[PutItInTheAir]

really depends on his minutes per game, so ill go by per 36 min and say 20, 11, and 3.5

[crimson_stallion]

To be completely honest, I have no problems with his current Per-36 production of 18/10/3.  Those are nice numbers and borderline All-Star numbers if he can continue to produce at that rate while playing 32-34 MPG. 

The numbers I do expect improvement in are his shooting percentages and free throw rate. 

I don't care what the excuses are - I don't want to hear  them.  I don't want to hear "but BS wants me to take more threes" or "but I was injured" or "but my conditioning".  I just don't care.   

A career Field Goal Percentage of 44% and Free Throw Rate of 21% are utterly laughable for a starting NBA PF who's entire reputation is based on his outstanding talent for scoring in the post/paint.    Even his FG% inside 3 feet (62%) is not especially impressive considering the type of player he is.

For comparison purposes Kelly Olynyk has a career Field Goal Percentage of 47%, a career Free Throw Rate of 25% and a career average of 67% FG inside 3 feet - and he is a stretch 4/5 by nature.

Likewise Josh Smith (who has played just as much at SF as he has at the PF and is known for his poor efficiency) has a career Field Goal Percentage of 45.5%, a career Free Throw Rate of 34%, and a career average of 67% FG inside 3 feet.

If Sully wants to be taken seriously as a legit starting caliber NBA PF (and one worthy of a substantial contract extension) then he needs to improve those numbers in a huge way.

It's not unreasonable to expect this, because we already know he's very capable of it.  In his rookie season (under Doc Rivers) he finished with a Field Goal Percentage of 49%, a free throw rate of 28% and an average of 67% FG inside 3 feet.

For Sully to convince me that he is worthy of a contact extension, he'll need to put up numbers on par with (or at least very close to) those from his rookie season.

I honestly don't care too much about his mediocre 3PT% or his decent-but-not-great FT%.  If he improves those it's just a bonus. 

If I'm Danny / Brad right now, I'm looking VERY closely at Sully and Olynyk this year to decide which of those guys I'm going to offer an extension within the next 12 months.  At this point in time, Kelly Olynyk is way ahead of that race and is making an absolute mockery of Sully.

So in summary, what I expect of Sully is:

1. Shoot at least 47% from the field
2. A free throw rate of at least 25%
3. Shoot at least 65% inside 3 feet
4. Per 36 minute averages of at least 16 / 9 / 2.5
5. More consistent effort on defense and offense (less taking plays off)

So that should translate realistically to anywhere between about 12.5 / 7 / 1.9 (if he plays 28 MPG) to about 15 / 8.5 / 2.3 (if he plays 34 MPG).

I understand we have a logjam in the front court so I don't expect him to play 36 MPG regardless of his conditioning, so if he can put up those numbers along with 47% FG overall, 65% FG inside 3 feet and a 25% free throw rate...then that's enough for me to feel he has earned an extension.

If he improves his conditioning (as he claims to be doing) and plays motivated, then I think those are very fair (and actually pretty modest) expectations to be honest.

 

[Granath]

So in summary, what I expect of Sully is:

1. Shoot at least 47% from the field
2. A free throw rate of at least 25%
3. Shoot at least 65% inside 3 feet
4. Per minute averages of at least 16 / 9 / 2
5. More consistent effort on defense and offense (less taking plays off)

So that should translate realistically to anywhere between about 12.5 / 7 / 1.6 (if he plays 28 MPG) to about 15 / 8.5 / 1.8 (if he plays 34 MPG).

I like your post but I question your numbers. Sully already averages 13/7.5/2.3 in 27 mpg. His 36 minute numbers are 18/10/3. Why would his stats drop if he improves per your numbers?

I think Sully will have a very good year (caveat: he stays healthy). Guys who go to John Lucas' camp tend to do pretty well after it.

I agree he needs to improve his shooting and he should be able to. After all, he's more than respectable from the free throw line (76%). So the problem isn't his stroke. I don't think he has any business firing up 3 pointers though because it's not his game. I want him under the basket shooting those 65% 3 foot shots and grabbing rebounds. I want him to develop a 10 foot jumper as well - something he's fully capable of given his free throw percentage.

Of course, I also want to see him bang more on defense. He's actually gotten slightly better over the years and I just want to see progress. By no means is he good (or even average), but a lighter, quicker Sullinger could do some decent things on the defensive end. Hopefully he picks up a few tips from Amir.

I also have no desire to see Sully play Center again. Too many times last year he was forced to do so. It's not his game. In terms of minutes, 3 of his 7 most frequent lineups had Sully as a Center. It simply doesn't work. His PER versus his opponent is positive as a PF. It's negative as a Center. So that's on Brad not to put him out there in that position.
 

[The Oracle]

So in summary, what I expect of Sully is:

1. Shoot at least 47% from the field
2. A free throw rate of at least 25%
3. Shoot at least 65% inside 3 feet
4. Per minute averages of at least 16 / 9 / 2
5. More consistent effort on defense and offense (less taking plays off)

So that should translate realistically to anywhere between about 12.5 / 7 / 1.6 (if he plays 28 MPG) to about 15 / 8.5 / 1.8 (if he plays 34 MPG).

I like your post but I question your numbers. Sully already averages 13/7.5/2.3 in 27 mpg. His 36 minute numbers are 18/10/3. Why would his stats drop if he improves per your numbers?

I think Sully will have a very good year (caveat: he stays healthy). Guys who go to John Lucas' camp tend to do pretty well after it.

I agree he needs to improve his shooting and he should be able to. After all, he's more than respectable from the free throw line (76%). So the problem isn't his stroke. I don't think he has any business firing up 3 pointers though because it's not his game. I want him under the basket shooting those 65% 3 foot shots and grabbing rebounds. I want him to develop a 10 foot jumper as well - something he's fully capable of given his free throw percentage.

Of course, I also want to see him bang more on defense. He's actually gotten slightly better over the years and I just want to see progress. By no means is he good (or even average), but a lighter, quicker Sullinger could do some decent things on the defensive end. Hopefully he picks up a few tips from Amir.

I also have no desire to see Sully play Center again. Too many times last year he was forced to do so. It's not his game. In terms of minutes, 3 of his 7 most frequent lineups had Sully as a Center. It simply doesn't work. His PER versus his opponent is positive as a PF. It's negative as a Center. So that's on Brad not to put him out there in that position.
 

Sully actually had the most success last year when playing the center position!  Using opponent PER is a big mistake as it doesn't tell you what you think it does.  82 games makes assumptions as to who is guarding who.  Their data is completely bogus and should not be used especially for Opp. PER!

[crimson_stallion]

So in summary, what I expect of Sully is:

1. Shoot at least 47% from the field
2. A free throw rate of at least 25%
3. Shoot at least 65% inside 3 feet
4. Per minute averages of at least 16 / 9 / 2
5. More consistent effort on defense and offense (less taking plays off)

So that should translate realistically to anywhere between about 12.5 / 7 / 1.6 (if he plays 28 MPG) to about 15 / 8.5 / 1.8 (if he plays 34 MPG).

I like your post but I question your numbers. Sully already averages 13/7.5/2.3 in 27 mpg. His 36 minute numbers are 18/10/3. Why would his stats drop if he improves per your numbers?

I think Sully will have a very good year (caveat: he stays healthy). Guys who go to John Lucas' camp tend to do pretty well after it.

I agree he needs to improve his shooting and he should be able to. After all, he's more than respectable from the free throw line (76%). So the problem isn't his stroke. I don't think he has any business firing up 3 pointers though because it's not his game. I want him under the basket shooting those 65% 3 foot shots and grabbing rebounds. I want him to develop a 10 foot jumper as well - something he's fully capable of given his free throw percentage.

Of course, I also want to see him bang more on defense. He's actually gotten slightly better over the years and I just want to see progress. By no means is he good (or even average), but a lighter, quicker Sullinger could do some decent things on the defensive end. Hopefully he picks up a few tips from Amir.

I also have no desire to see Sully play Center again. Too many times last year he was forced to do so. It's not his game. In terms of minutes, 3 of his 7 most frequent lineups had Sully as a Center. It simply doesn't work. His PER versus his opponent is positive as a PF. It's negative as a Center. So that's on Brad not to put him out there in that position.

Because I feel like one extra point / rebound Per-36 is less valuable to us than all of the improvements I mentioned (FTR, FG%, inside FG%) so I'd be happy to see him improve those numbers even if it means a small reduction in his outright scoring / rebounding numbers.

Also we have a lot more depth in the front-court this year (with Lee, Amir and Mickey added) and also more scoring (with Lee + Thomas) so I don't necessarily expect his role in the offense to be as big as it was last year.

Ultimately I would LIKE to see him maintain that 18/10/3 Per 36 rate, but I'm not sure if asking for that (plus the other things I listed) is too much considering he doesn't seem to have a naturally great motor / work ethic.

[chambers]

So in summary, what I expect of Sully is:

1. Shoot at least 47% from the field
2. A free throw rate of at least 25%
3. Shoot at least 65% inside 3 feet
4. Per minute averages of at least 16 / 9 / 2
5. More consistent effort on defense and offense (less taking plays off)

So that should translate realistically to anywhere between about 12.5 / 7 / 1.6 (if he plays 28 MPG) to about 15 / 8.5 / 1.8 (if he plays 34 MPG).

I like your post but I question your numbers. Sully already averages 13/7.5/2.3 in 27 mpg. His 36 minute numbers are 18/10/3. Why would his stats drop if he improves per your numbers?

I think Sully will have a very good year (caveat: he stays healthy). Guys who go to John Lucas' camp tend to do pretty well after it.

I agree he needs to improve his shooting and he should be able to. After all, he's more than respectable from the free throw line (76%). So the problem isn't his stroke. I don't think he has any business firing up 3 pointers though because it's not his game. I want him under the basket shooting those 65% 3 foot shots and grabbing rebounds. I want him to develop a 10 foot jumper as well - something he's fully capable of given his free throw percentage.

Of course, I also want to see him bang more on defense. He's actually gotten slightly better over the years and I just want to see progress. By no means is he good (or even average), but a lighter, quicker Sullinger could do some decent things on the defensive end. Hopefully he picks up a few tips from Amir.

I also have no desire to see Sully play Center again. Too many times last year he was forced to do so. It's not his game. In terms of minutes, 3 of his 7 most frequent lineups had Sully as a Center. It simply doesn't work. His PER versus his opponent is positive as a PF. It's negative as a Center. So that's on Brad not to put him out there in that position.

Sully's already a great jumpshooter actually. He's top an elite shooter from 16ft+ in the entire NBA.
He shot 35%+ from three for exactly half the games he played. Shooting regressed as season went on..which could be related to stamina/grind and his terrible body.

[DarkAzcura]

So in summary, what I expect of Sully is:

1. Shoot at least 47% from the field
2. A free throw rate of at least 25%
3. Shoot at least 65% inside 3 feet
4. Per minute averages of at least 16 / 9 / 2
5. More consistent effort on defense and offense (less taking plays off)

So that should translate realistically to anywhere between about 12.5 / 7 / 1.6 (if he plays 28 MPG) to about 15 / 8.5 / 1.8 (if he plays 34 MPG).

I like your post but I question your numbers. Sully already averages 13/7.5/2.3 in 27 mpg. His 36 minute numbers are 18/10/3. Why would his stats drop if he improves per your numbers?

I think Sully will have a very good year (caveat: he stays healthy). Guys who go to John Lucas' camp tend to do pretty well after it.

I agree he needs to improve his shooting and he should be able to. After all, he's more than respectable from the free throw line (76%). So the problem isn't his stroke. I don't think he has any business firing up 3 pointers though because it's not his game. I want him under the basket shooting those 65% 3 foot shots and grabbing rebounds. I want him to develop a 10 foot jumper as well - something he's fully capable of given his free throw percentage.

Of course, I also want to see him bang more on defense. He's actually gotten slightly better over the years and I just want to see progress. By no means is he good (or even average), but a lighter, quicker Sullinger could do some decent things on the defensive end. Hopefully he picks up a few tips from Amir.

I also have no desire to see Sully play Center again. Too many times last year he was forced to do so. It's not his game. In terms of minutes, 3 of his 7 most frequent lineups had Sully as a Center. It simply doesn't work. His PER versus his opponent is positive as a PF. It's negative as a Center. So that's on Brad not to put him out there in that position.

Sully's already a great jumpshooter actually. He's top an elite shooter from 16ft+ in the entire NBA.
He shot 35%+ from three for exactly half the games he played. Shooting regressed as season went on..which could be related to stamina/grind and his terrible body.

Yeah, I know a lot of people are down on his 3PT shooting, but imo, it's the only way he'll be deserving of a starting position in this league. His defense isn't good enough to mitigate his lack of offensive game in the post (which is overrated, imo) and for him not to have a solid 3PT shot. He needs that shot, or he needs to greatly improve on his foul drawing ability in the post.

I'll be interested to see if a better conditioned Sully can actually keep up that 35% 3PT he had for half the season. Better conditioning + consistent 3PT shot is what is going to make him a staple in starting lineups unless he has some kind of epiphany on defense. Otherwise I can't see him becoming a legit starter on a contender.

[Celtics4ever]

Yeah, I know a lot of people are down on his 3PT shooting, but imo, it's the only way he'll be deserving of a starting position in this league. His defense isn't good enough to mitigate his lack of offensive game in the post (which is overrated, imo) and for him not to have a solid 3PT shot. He needs that shot, or he needs to greatly improve on his foul drawing ability in the post.

I'll be interested to see if a better conditioned Sully can actually keep up that 35% 3PT he had for half the season. Better conditioning + consistent 3PT shot is what is going to make him a staple in starting lineups unless he has some kind of epiphany on defense. Otherwise I can't see him becoming a legit starter on a contender.

When has weight ever affected a shot though?   Bill Laimbeer could bomb threes and he was a little pudgy.   We have all seen guys in rec leagues or at the park who can shoot and were over weight.

I weighed between 175 in high school and 260 playing for the Army Post team.   Most of this was going from a scrawny kid to a man.   My shot did get slightly better when I playing for living as my job on the Army team.  But not much, I was always a good shooter but when your practicing 4 hours a day it helps anyone's shot.   I shot the college three at 50%, I am too old and too tall to have shot in High School as they did not have a three point line.   My point is that once I developed my shot, even gained muscle via weigh lifting and filling out, my weight did not effect my shot a whole lot.

Shooting is a skill, it is all about mechanics, form and touch.  It can improved but I do not think weight plays as big as a factor as most do in the shot.  Glen Davis can shoot about the same and he is heavier than ever.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3200/glen-davis

We can hope, but only time will tell.

[crimson_stallion]

I wouldn't say that Sully's post game is overrated.  I actually think he's very good in the post - he has a nice set of moves and a soft touch, finishes pretty well through contact, etc. 

Every year since his rookie year Sully's three point attempts have gone up (from 2% ->  23% ->  26%).  Subsequently, his shot attempts inside the paint have dropped proportionately (45% -> 31% -> 27%). 

Many people excuse this and say it's purely because Brad has pushed him to shoot more three's - if that's the reason then fine, and it explains the change.

He also had a respectable 28% Free throw rate in his rookie year, which indicates to me that defenses were respecting his post game - this has since dropped to 18%. 

Again this makes sense, because jump-shooters tend to not get fouled that often so that can all come down to Brad's insistence that he shoot more threes.

BUT

What it doesn't explain is why his actual FG% inside the paint (not only his number of attempts) has also dropped significantly.  He shot a very nice 67% inside 3 ft in his rookie year, but only shot a pretty 'meh' 60% and 62% in the following two years. 

Why??

I find it hard to believe that he's simply lost his touch in the post, so I don't know how to explain this.

All I can conclude is that all of this is a result of conditioning.  Guy gets tired, doesn't have the energy to bang in the post and absorb contact anymore, so misses more inside shots - decides to preserve energy by stepping out on the perimeter more and taking more jumpers instead of attacking the basket.

As a big guy myself, I tend to find this I get stuck in this same pattern when I play.  At first I'm hitting shots, driving inside, etc. After a few times up and down the court I start getting tired, my legs start getting weak, etc.  First thing that happens is I become less aggressive running back on D.  Next thing is I start moving less on offense - I drive and post up less, tend to start settling to open jumpers when I get them.  Finally the last thing that happens is my legs get weak so I am not getting the usual lift, and I start missing jumpers.

This all sounds very much like what seems to happen with Sully, so I'm wondering if all of this is just a result of conditioning.

[GetLucky]

I wouldn't say that Sully's post game is overrated.  I actually think he's very good in the post - he has a nice set of moves and a soft touch, finishes pretty well through contact, etc. 

Every year since his rookie year Sully's three point attempts have gone up (from 2% ->  23% ->  26%).  Subsequently, his shot attempts inside the paint have dropped proportionately (45% -> 31% -> 27%). 

Many people excuse this and say it's purely because Brad has pushed him to shoot more three's - if that's the reason then fine, and it explains the change.

He also had a respectable 28% Free throw rate in his rookie year, which indicates to me that defenses were respecting his post game - this has since dropped to 18%. 

Again this makes sense, because jump-shooters tend to not get fouled that often so that can all come down to Brad's insistence that he shoot more threes.

BUT

What it doesn't explain is why his actual FG% inside the paint (not only his number of attempts) has also dropped significantly.  He shot a very nice 67% inside 3 ft in his rookie year, but only shot a pretty 'meh' 60% and 62% in the following two years. 

Why??

I find it hard to believe that he's simply lost his touch in the post, so I don't know how to explain this.

All I can conclude is that all of this is a result of conditioning.  Guy gets tired, doesn't have the energy to bang in the post and absorb contact anymore, so misses more inside shots - decides to preserve energy by stepping out on the perimeter more and taking more jumpers instead of attacking the basket.

As a big guy myself, I tend to find this I get stuck in this same pattern when I play.  At first I'm hitting shots, driving inside, etc. After a few times up and down the court I start getting tired, my legs start getting weak, etc.  First thing that happens is I become less aggressive running back on D.  Next thing is I start moving less on offense - I drive and post up less, tend to start settling to open jumpers when I get them.  Finally the last thing that happens is my legs get weak so I am not getting the usual lift, and I start missing jumpers.

This all sounds very much like what seems to happen with Sully, so I'm wondering if all of this is just a result of conditioning.

I think it's a combination of conditioning and having to do more on offense and defense. Sully's rookie year, he only played about a quarter and a half (with minutes somewhere in the teens, iirc.), often with KG. This helped cover for his mistakes on defense, required less energy/conditioning (obviously due to less minutes, and we all know how much Rondo was able to slack off with KG in the paint), while simultaneously getting him better looks in the paint (because KG drew more attention and is a good big-to-big passer). So I think it's exactly what you're saying in addition the fact that the team dynamic (team is worse, requirinng more minutes and offensive shots taken from Sully) is a cause.

[Celtics4ever]

As a big guy myself, I tend to find this I get stuck in this same pattern when I play.  At first I'm hitting shots, driving inside, etc. After a few times up and down the court I start getting tired, my legs start getting weak, etc.  First thing that happens is I become less aggressive running back on D.  Next thing is I start moving less on offense - I drive and post up less, tend to start settling to open jumpers when I get them.  Finally the last thing that happens is my legs get weak so I am not getting the usual lift, and I start missing jumpers.

I always tried to run big guys into the ground when I played them with a lot of motion for this very reason.   This always tired them out if they had extra weight.  I also drove a lot because they were more likely to foul because they had trouble sliding laterally and staying in front and I tried to never let them feel me or make contact because they were adept at using their bulk.  I have also seen a lot of big guys rely on their jumper when they get tired.

Now in the post above, I with my weight, I think I should have pointed out that I am 6-8.5" with shoes on.

But the thing with the weak legs, is that some games he was hot and hit them all the time and others he was not.   I have also seen him miss threes early in the game.   I think what you say is feasible.   But I do think we should justify his faults because in this case they are not applicable always on his shot.

It is time for him either to do well or falter.   He is at a critical juncture of his career.  Our words will not matter in a week but his play will.