Author Topic: Bob Cousy says he'd rather tank/draft than get stuck in the middle of the pack.  (Read 14593 times)

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Offline tarheelsxxiii

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It's fair to maintain the belief that we could become a more attractive FA destination if we were to be a 4th or 5th seed this year. However, it's fairly easy to argue that that's less likely than not, and even if it does happen, the FA pool is so weak this coming year that it becomes a moot point.

The primary issue I see is how our logjams are going to affect the team, and specifically, the value of our assets. There are so many factors that could royally screw up our ability to most effectively develop our youth, assist in the rebirth of vets to increase their value, and find a home (presumably elsewhere) for many of these guys. Given the above re: the dried up FA pool, and our lack of success in signing FAs in the past, we could very well be looking at a trade-or-nothing situation.

I know I'm not reinventing the wheel here, these sentiments have been shared by others. I have been thinking about this a lot lately, though, and specifically how our current roster is going to be difficult to manage from both GM and coaching standpoints.

-Who plays? PF is a mess. It's easy to suggest you play who shows up, but is it not plausible that Sully has a career (contract) year? What if KO takes another step forward? And if he doesn't, he still has value in a lot of systems around the league, so benching him would only hurt that. Lee and Amir need mins if we wish to get anything back for them, or even keep them.

-Who headlines a big package? Smart? Don't think so... not unless he makes major strides on the offensive end this year. No real reason to anticipate that as of now..

-Who becomes available this year? We have more superteams than I can recall in recent history, and with so many credible contenders, I don't see any breaking up at any point in the near future. And putting all our eggs in the Boogie Basket is less than exciting...
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Offline greece66

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We all know the NBA is super competitive, but we are not doomed either.
'

That's not what I'm saying here.  I'm simply pushing back against the "Why are people so hung up on the draft?  We're already one of the youngest teams in the league!" sentiment that I've seen expressed more than a few times around here.

Just because the Celts are young does not mean they are on an upward trajectory toward being competitive.  One does not follow from the other.

I think the idea is not just that we're one of the youngest teams already...it's that we are one of the youngest teams AND we are a playoff team.

If we manage to make a 5th or 4th seed this year (whether you believe that's possible all not, this is all hypothetical) while also being one of the youngest teams in the league, then that immediately increased your appeal to free agents.

Free agents then see a team who is already a good playoff team, is on the way up (since all the players are young and will only improve in time - even if it's not by a dramatic amount) and so they feel that adding somebody of their talent level could be the one piece needed to push said team over the edge.

This is ultimately what led to Milwaukee picking up Greg Monroe - he saw them as a team who was young, just made the playoffs, and could potentially be one good piece away from being a top 4 playoff team for years to come.

If Milwaukee had tanked (for arguments sake) and never made the playoffs, then I can all but guarantee you Monroe would not have signed there.

People seem to think success doesn't impact on free agent interest - put yourself in the position of a star free agent...would YOU want to sign a multi-year contact for a team that just got the wooden spoon (or near enough to it) for the last 2-3 years? 

How about a team who has been competitive, but has an old and ageing roster that might only have another year or two of competitiveness left in it? 

Or option theree - would you rather sign a milti-year deal for a team that just made the playoffs, has a roster full of young players, and has a ton of assets?

Kevin Love left Minnesota because they couldn't get to the playoffs. Greg Monroe left the Pistons for the same reason.  If the Kings haven't become competitive by the time Cousin's contact expires, I'm sure he'll do the same.   

Star players want to compete - they want to win.  They don't want to waste 4-5 years during their physical peak losing game after game, year after year.

If I'm a free agent looking to sign a long-term deal, then I want to know two main things:

1) Do you have a team that can at least compete for a playoff right now?
2) Do you have the resources /assets to keep the team competitive for the duration of my time here?

If either answer is no, I'd be walking away.

This will especially be true in the next season or two because every team will have cap space, so as a star there is really no incentive to play for a team that looks like it might be in the lottery for the next 2-3 years.
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Offline Celtics4ever

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Who plays? PF is a mess. It's easy to suggest you play who shows up, but is it not plausible that Sully has a career (contract) year? What if KO takes another step forward?

Both those guys have starter level skills with YMCA athletic ability, so yes, it is very unlikely.  They may not even get the majority of minutes this year.

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Who plays? PF is a mess. It's easy to suggest you play who shows up, but is it not plausible that Sully has a career (contract) year? What if KO takes another step forward?

Both those guys have starter level skills with YMCA athletic ability, so yes, it is very unlikely.  They may not even get the majority of minutes this year.

I don't disagree, they're easily 3 and 4 behind Amir and Lee in my book. I do think Sully could surprise this year, though... and trick a team into signing him on a respectable long-term contract. But what does letting them rot on the bench do for their trade value? 
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Offline crimson_stallion

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It's fair to maintain the belief that we could become a more attractive FA destination if we were to be a 4th or 5th seed this year. However, it's fairly easy to argue that that's less likely than not, and even if it does happen, the FA pool is so weak this coming year that it becomes a moot point.

The primary issue I see is how our logjams are going to affect the team, and specifically, the value of our assets. There are so many factors that could royally screw up our ability to most effectively develop our youth, assist in the rebirth of vets to increase their value, and find a home (presumably elsewhere) for many of these guys. Given the above re: the dried up FA pool, and our lack of success in signing FAs in the past, we could very well be looking at a trade-or-nothing situation.

I know I'm not reinventing the wheel here, these sentiments have been shared by others. I have been thinking about this a lot lately, though, and specifically how our current roster is going to be difficult to manage from both GM and coaching standpoints.

-Who plays? PF is a mess. It's easy to suggest you play who shows up, but is it not plausible that Sully has a career (contract) year? What if KO takes another step forward? And if he doesn't, he still has value in a lot of systems around the league, so benching him would only hurt that. Lee and Amir need mins if we wish to get anything back for them, or even keep them.

-Who headlines a big package? Smart? Don't think so... not unless he makes major strides on the offensive end this year. No real reason to anticipate that as of now..

-Who becomes available this year? We have more superteams than I can recall in recent history, and with so many credible contenders, I don't see any breaking up at any point in the near future. And putting all our eggs in the Boogie Basket is less than exciting...

Honestly, I think the whole concept of 'showcasing' players for the sake of raising trade value is a bit of a myth. 

This is the NBA - every team has talent scouts that are paid millions of dollars, to do their job, which is to understand the strengths/weaknesses/abilities of every player out there.

I don't think NBA GM's look at players the same way we do - in terms of PPG and RPG.  I think they look at players in terms of what skills they have, what they can do, and how those skills/capabilities fit in with their team needs.

Kelly Olynyk doesn't need to play 30 MPG for opposing teams to know what his skill set is - every body knows that he's a good shooter, a good passer, a passable rebounder, and a good ball handler for his size...with some defensive limitations.  If you have a need for a stretch four you can run the offense through and you have a good rim protector, then you have interest in a guy like Kelly.

The only real exception to this I think is with Rookies, because you don't really know what they are going to be capable of until you see them play actual NBA minutes against actual NBA competition.  Even sending guys to the D-League isn't the same, because many players dominate that league only to royally suck on the real NBA court.

This is why at the end of the day, I believe that Brad Stevens is going to play the guys who he feels:

1) Offer skills that make sense in the context of what he is trying to achieve
2) Bring the right mentality and work ethic every day

For example if Sully doesn't keep his body in check over the court of the season, and continues his insubordination (missing practices, etc) and in the meantime all of the other bigs work hard and play well...then I can see Sully dropping slowly out of the rotation and eventually being traded.

I do agree that this approach to team building his it's downsides - everybody looks a little big better when they are playing good minutes and putting up good numbers, and I'd like to see our rookies get at least SOME time (even if it's just 5 minutes) on a nightly basis.

But, Danny is an opportunist who always takes talent over need, so if he has the ability to collect talent at a bargain price he's always going to do it.  If you have too many talented players at one position, well that's the best type of problem to have - it's certainly better than not having enough talent. 

Having so many disposable players only means that Danny has more versatility when negotiating trades because there's so much variety in the assets he possesses that he will almost always have an asset somebody wants. 

Is it the PERFECT situation?  Certainly not, but it's MUCH better than the position we were in in 2013/14.  At least I think so.

Offline PhoSita

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I think the idea is not just that we're one of the youngest teams already...it's that we are one of the youngest teams AND we are a playoff team.

If we manage to make a 5th or 4th seed this year (whether you believe that's possible all not, this is all hypothetical) while also being one of the youngest teams in the league, then that immediately increased your appeal to free agents.

. . . .


This is ultimately what led to Milwaukee picking up Greg Monroe - he saw them as a team who was young, just made the playoffs, and could potentially be one good piece away from being a top 4 playoff team for years to come.



I think the missing part of your formula is having at least one star, or a player perceived as a star-to-be, already in place.

That's a big part of the equation.  A free agent like Greg Monroe looks at Milwaukee and sees not just a young playoff team, but a young playoff team with Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo only just beginning to tap the full extent of their talent and ability.
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Offline tarheelsxxiii

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It's fair to maintain the belief that we could become a more attractive FA destination if we were to be a 4th or 5th seed this year. However, it's fairly easy to argue that that's less likely than not, and even if it does happen, the FA pool is so weak this coming year that it becomes a moot point.

The primary issue I see is how our logjams are going to affect the team, and specifically, the value of our assets. There are so many factors that could royally screw up our ability to most effectively develop our youth, assist in the rebirth of vets to increase their value, and find a home (presumably elsewhere) for many of these guys. Given the above re: the dried up FA pool, and our lack of success in signing FAs in the past, we could very well be looking at a trade-or-nothing situation.

I know I'm not reinventing the wheel here, these sentiments have been shared by others. I have been thinking about this a lot lately, though, and specifically how our current roster is going to be difficult to manage from both GM and coaching standpoints.

-Who plays? PF is a mess. It's easy to suggest you play who shows up, but is it not plausible that Sully has a career (contract) year? What if KO takes another step forward? And if he doesn't, he still has value in a lot of systems around the league, so benching him would only hurt that. Lee and Amir need mins if we wish to get anything back for them, or even keep them.

-Who headlines a big package? Smart? Don't think so... not unless he makes major strides on the offensive end this year. No real reason to anticipate that as of now..

-Who becomes available this year? We have more superteams than I can recall in recent history, and with so many credible contenders, I don't see any breaking up at any point in the near future. And putting all our eggs in the Boogie Basket is less than exciting...

Honestly, I think the whole concept of 'showcasing' players for the sake of raising trade value is a bit of a myth. 

This is the NBA - every team has talent scouts that are paid millions of dollars, to do their job, which is to understand the strengths/weaknesses/abilities of every player out there.

I don't think NBA GM's look at players the same way we do - in terms of PPG and RPG.  I think they look at players in terms of what skills they have, what they can do, and how those skills/capabilities fit in with their team needs.

Kelly Olynyk doesn't need to play 30 MPG for opposing teams to know what his skill set is - every body knows that he's a good shooter, a good passer, a passable rebounder, and a good ball handler for his size...with some defensive limitations.  If you have a need for a stretch four you can run the offense through and you have a good rim protector, then you have interest in a guy like Kelly.

The only real exception to this I think is with Rookies, because you don't really know what they are going to be capable of until you see them play actual NBA minutes against actual NBA competition.  Even sending guys to the D-League isn't the same, because many players dominate that league only to royally suck on the real NBA court.

This is why at the end of the day, I believe that Brad Stevens is going to play the guys who he feels:

1) Offer skills that make sense in the context of what he is trying to achieve
2) Bring the right mentality and work ethic every day

For example if Sully doesn't keep his body in check over the court of the season, and continues his insubordination (missing practices, etc) and in the meantime all of the other bigs work hard and play well...then I can see Sully dropping slowly out of the rotation and eventually being traded.

I do agree that this approach to team building his it's downsides - everybody looks a little big better when they are playing good minutes and putting up good numbers, and I'd like to see our rookies get at least SOME time (even if it's just 5 minutes) on a nightly basis.

But, Danny is an opportunist who always takes talent over need, so if he has the ability to collect talent at a bargain price he's always going to do it.  If you have too many talented players at one position, well that's the best type of problem to have - it's certainly better than not having enough talent. 

Having so many disposable players only means that Danny has more versatility when negotiating trades because there's so much variety in the assets he possesses that he will almost always have an asset somebody wants. 

Is it the PERFECT situation?  Certainly not, but it's MUCH better than the position we were in in 2013/14.  At least I think so.

I'm with you on your initial point, I'm sure scouts and GMs are able to judge talent without seeing extended minutes and the stats we rely on as fans.

I also agree that having so many talented players, especially at PF, is an advantage in some respects for Ainge when he looks to make moves.

But, what about Lee, in particular? His value seems to be entirely up in the air right now. If he doesn't get minutes and lacks the opportunity to prove he can still play at a high level (erroneously or not) - which I assume is the reason he has come to Boston - then we could miss out on an opportunity to flip someone to a contender for nice value.

I suppose the same could be said for Amir. Given the structure of his contract, wouldn't you imagine he could well be gone? And if so, wouldn't you like to get something back for him? My gut says the two of them could actually end up being our two most valuable assets if (big if) a disgruntled star hit the trading block. They, on top of Sully, would be my biggest concerns on this front. Situation is just leaving me with an itch I can't scratch...
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Offline Celtics18

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Ahem my fellow Celtic. You eliminated the part where he said a number of our guys.

He clearly did not have Phil in his mind when wrote that. Strawman fallacy  ;D

Perhaps, but I mention Phil Pressey (who I was glad to see catch on with another NBA team after he was waived) as an example.

I think the same holds true for Bradley, Turner, Crowder, Zeller, Olynyk, Amir, and Jerebko.  The rooks are impossible to judge yet because they haven't even played (though who knows when they'll get to play for the Celts). 

Smart has a chance, I think.  Thomas could perhaps get in if the team decided to play him 36+ minutes a night just to watch him put up 25 points a game.  Sullinger is a long shot but in theory if he completely turned himself around physically it's plausible.


The key takeaway here is that while the Celts have a number of decent role players who are young enough to play in this league for another 8-10 years if not more, only one or two of them probably has what it takes to ever be a top difference maker at his position, and even then it's iffy. 

That limits how much we can expect to get from this group, even with optimal improvement.

The one player I disagree on is Olynyk.  Sure, right now he may appear to be a long-shot to ever make an All Star game.  The thing that threatens his chance of ever reaching his full potential the most seems to be his mentality. 

I agree that currently it is hard to see him as a guy who has the kind of cockiness or mean streak that it takes to become a star.   In my opinion, though, if he can toughen up and learn to see himself as a guy capable of taking over games, he absolutely has the talent to be a top level starter on a contender. 

Of course we also have the rookies and our future draft picks.  Who knows what those will turn into?
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PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Offline Celtics4ever

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But what does letting them rot on the bench do for their trade value?

I think CBS doesn't care about their trade value, he wants to win, and does not try to raise trade value.   He is going to play who is playing well.   That may go directly against what Ainge wants.

Offline Hemingway

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The "log jam" at PF will work itself out. CBS can play Amir, Lee, Sully, Zeller and KO about 20 minutes each until one of them gets hurt or traded.