The myth about Celtic's post ASG record

[D.o.s.]

As someone who thinks the Celtics overachieved at the end of the year, my suspicion covers and was born out of the 25-12 record they compiled after the All Star Break, not just the last 13 games. It seems peculiar to me that you would pick the last 13 games, and feels rather arbitrary, given that most people talk about the post ASG in total, rather than starting with one game at the end of March.

A larger sample size only helps the OP's argument, not hurts.

I'm not, and wasn't, attacking his argument.

[DarkAzcura]

As someone who thinks the Celtics overachieved at the end of the year, my suspicion covers and was born out of the 25-12 record they compiled after the All Star Break, not just the last 13 games. It seems peculiar to me that you would pick the last 13 games, and feels rather arbitrary, given that most people talk about the post ASG in total, rather than starting with one game at the end of March.

A larger sample size only helps the OP's argument, not hurts.

I'm not, and wasn't, attacking his argument.

Eh didn't really think so, but I thought I'd throw that in there just in case, lol. I wasn't really sure what you were trying to get at.

[D.o.s.]

I feel like if you're looking at the team's record after the ASB you should actually look at the entire record that qualifies, not half of it.

Also worth noting (someone already did earlier in the thread) my numbers are overestimated the C's went 20-11 after the ASB.

[PhoSita]

Honestly, after I went through and looked at the post-All-Star break run game-by-game, I think the biggest reason was that the pre-All-Star break record was pretty difficult and the post-All-Star break record was relatively easy.

The year-end record, 40 wins, seems fairly accurate when you look at it like that, even though the roster makeup changed a lot over the course of the year.

The Celtics also benefited from a good number of East teams that were missing key players (Bosh, George) or that were struggling despite playoff aspirations (Pistons, Hornets, Raptors).



If the East has fewer disappointing teams next year, it could really go the other way.  But, on the other hand, the Celts might do a lot better overall against the opponents that creamed them in the first half of last season when the team was still carrying Rondo and Green.

[max215]

Does anyone know of any other examples of big runs/turn-arounds after the ASG? I'd really like to compare the C's to other similar situations.

Spot-checked a few franchises and here are recent post-AB jumps that I found:
2012-2013 Dallas, 23-29 pre-ASB to 18-12 post-ASB
2007-2008 Philadelphia 23-30 to 17-12
2013-2014 Wizards 25-27 to 19-11

Those are all smaller than the Celtics going from 20-31 to 20-11.

20-31 is on pace for 32 wins, 20-11 is on pace for 53 wins.  I think that the Celtics before the All-Star break were more like a 35- to 40-win team that was underperforming.  I don't think they are really a 53-win team, but I think they were a legitimate over-.500 team.

TP, thanks for the stats. I think your analysis is spot on as well. IMO we're likely to finish with 40-50 wins; my guess would be right around 44 or 45.