The myth about Celtic's post ASG record

[Ilikesports17]

For my money, the way things went in the playoffs was much more indicative of where this team is at from a competitive standpoint.

Despite getting the swept, the Celtics looked like a team that belonged in the playoffs.  Agree or disagree?

Disagree.

They never looked like they had a real chance of winning a game in that series.  I don't think they fared much better than any of a handful of teams behind them in the standings would have done.  I think the Nets were a more competitive post-season team than the Celts.

The nets were somewhat competitive against a hawks team that got beaten just as handily as the Celtics by the Cavs.

The Cavs steamrolled the East. We were the only team to play them at full strength. We were somewhat competitive in each series. With Kyrie and Love Cleveland would have had a chance to run away with the title.

[D.o.s.]

For my money, the way things went in the playoffs was much more indicative of where this team is at from a competitive standpoint.

Despite getting the swept, the Celtics looked like a team that belonged in the playoffs.  Agree or disagree?

Disagree.

They never looked like they had a real chance of winning a game in that series.  I don't think they fared much better than any of a handful of teams behind them in the standings would have done.  I think the Nets were a more competitive post-season team than the Celts.

The nets were somewhat competitive against a hawks team that got beaten just as handily as the Celtics by the Cavs.

The Cavs steamrolled the East. We were the only team to play them at full strength. We were somewhat competitive in each series. With Kyrie and Love Cleveland would have had a chance to run away with the title.

So basically the Dubs should have given Olynyk the Finals MVP award.

[incoherent]

As someone who thinks the Celtics overachieved at the end of the year, my suspicion covers and was born out of the 25-12 record they compiled after the All Star Break, not just the last 13 games. It seems peculiar to me that you would pick the last 13 games, and feels rather arbitrary, given that most people talk about the post ASG in total, rather than starting with one game at the end of March.

Feel free to do a similar analysis of all the post-ASB games if you think that was cherry-picking.

Sure, I can go back and subjectively analyze games and whether or not the other team was "really trying." Seems like a good use of my time.

You're right, its much easier and quicker to just toss around narratives without trying to form them from logic and reason.

[aingeforthree]

Throw out wins/losses if you have to. We were flat out playing better ball after the trade for IT4 went down.  I felt like we could beat any team on any given night, and we gave the world champs a run for their money to boot.

No myth about it.  We played playoff basketball after IT4 came to town.

[dreamgreen]

I think we will be a better team this year by far but still will get beat by the top 6 or so teams and when we meet those teams in the playoffs it will be obvious.

As far as after the ASG last year we were much improved IMO the record was a little inflated but as others have mentioned the first half was not as bad as on paper. If we brought back that same team I predicted 37 wins, current roster mid 40's.

[D.o.s.]

As someone who thinks the Celtics overachieved at the end of the year, my suspicion covers and was born out of the 25-12 record they compiled after the All Star Break, not just the last 13 games. It seems peculiar to me that you would pick the last 13 games, and feels rather arbitrary, given that most people talk about the post ASG in total, rather than starting with one game at the end of March.

Feel free to do a similar analysis of all the post-ASB games if you think that was cherry-picking.

Sure, I can go back and subjectively analyze games and whether or not the other team was "really trying." Seems like a good use of my time.

You're right, its much easier and quicker to just toss around narratives without trying to form them from logic and reason.

I asked you about your sample size and you ignored it. Feel free to reply to my question whenever you want.

Also worth noting: in the OP you listed two games that the Celtics won that were "tanked" but only said we won one of those games in your (helpfully bolded) conclusion.

[PhoSita]

Here, I went ahead and parsed all of the post-All-Star games


2/20 vs SAC - Loss versus a bad team in disarray
2/22 vs LAL - Overtime loss to a terrible Lakers team
2/23 vs PHX - Win versus a decent team in disarray
2/25 vs NYK - Win versus a horrible team
2/27 vs CHO - Win versus a crappy Hornets squad
3/1 vs GSW - Beaten by a great team
3/3 vs CLE - Destroyed by LeBron (preview of the playoffs)
3/4 vs UTA - Close win versus a quality up-and-coming Utah team
3/6 vs NOP - Win versus Anthony Davis and his terrible supporting cast
3/8 vs ORL - Loss to a bad but talented Magic team
3/9 vs MIA - Win against an injury-battered team missing its best player
3/11 vs MEM - Win against a contender
3/13 vs ORL - Win against a bad but talented Magic team
3/14 vs IND - Win against a crappy Pacers squad missing its best player
3/16 vs PHI - Win against a tanking team
3/18 vs OKC - Beaten by Russell Westbrook
3/20 vs SAS - Beaten handily by the Spurs machine
3/22 vs Detroit - Overtime loss against a crappy but bigger Pistons squad
3/23 vs BRK - Blowout win against a mediocre Nets team
3/25 vs MIA - Loss against injury-riddled Heat team
3/27 vs NYK - Win against a tanking team
3/29 vs LAC - Blowout loss against a contender
3/30 vs CHO - Double digit win against mediocre Hornets team
4/1 vs IND - Double digit win against mediocre Pacers team
4/3 vs MIL - Loss against upstart Bucks team
4/4 vs TOR - Overtime win against reeling Toronto team
4/8 vs DET - Double digit win against mediocre Pistons team
4/10 vs CLE - Win against CLE team taking it easy before the playoffs
4/12 vs CLE - Blowout win against CLE team resting its stars
4/14 vs TOR - Close win against reeling Toronto team
4/15 vs MIL - Close win against young Bucks team



A lot of wins against mediocre teams in the Eastern Conference.  A couple of quality wins in there, too.  A win against the Grizzlies at home is the one that stands out.

[GzUP617]

  Didn't we have the hardest opponents before the All Star Game and easiest opponents after it was over.

Could just be a combination of certain teams tanking, easy schedule after the break, oh and key injuries to certain markets.   

[incoherent]

As someone who thinks the Celtics overachieved at the end of the year, my suspicion covers and was born out of the 25-12 record they compiled after the All Star Break, not just the last 13 games. It seems peculiar to me that you would pick the last 13 games, and feels rather arbitrary, given that most people talk about the post ASG in total, rather than starting with one game at the end of March.

Feel free to do a similar analysis of all the post-ASB games if you think that was cherry-picking.

Sure, I can go back and subjectively analyze games and whether or not the other team was "really trying." Seems like a good use of my time.

You're right, its much easier and quicker to just toss around narratives without trying to form them from logic and reason.

I asked you about your sample size and you ignored it. Feel free to reply to my question whenever you want.

Also worth noting: in the OP you listed two games that the Celtics won that were "tanked" but only said we won one of those games in your (helpfully bolded) conclusion.

The Knicks is a scheduled W for everyone in the league.  Why should the Celtics beating them be used against them? The Pistons/Pacers/Hornets/Nets/Heat who we all just barely beat out were also getting W's vs the Knicks. It's irrelevant IMO.  The only truly tanked game was that one Cavs game.

I picked the final 13 because we won 10 of them and I wanted to talk about our wins and if we deserved them. I didnt have time to do every game post ASG, but you can easily look at the game logs and see for yourself that overall teams were not tanking against us. Just glance at it, Philly tanked but they are just like the Knicks, free wins for everyone and it shouldn't be held against the Celtics because everyone else was getting wins from them also.

[D.o.s.]

You don't think teams were looking at the Celtics as a scheduled W and played down to that expectation, particularly after our abysmal start and trading away our two best players?

This seems like a curious double standard to me -- that you're acknowledging the existence of "easy win" games while arguing against the fact that the 2014 Celtics were a great candidate for being "trap games" for other teams around the league.

[PhoSita]

You don't think teams were looking at the Celtics as a scheduled W and played down to that expectation, particularly after our abysmal start and trading away our two best players?

[incoherent]

Here, I went ahead and parsed all of the post-All-Star games


2/20 vs SAC - Loss versus a bad team in disarray
2/22 vs LAL - Overtime loss to a terrible Lakers team
2/23 vs PHX - Win versus a decent team in disarray
2/25 vs NYK - Win versus a horrible team
2/27 vs CHO - Win versus a crappy Hornets squad
3/1 vs GSW - Beaten by a great team
3/3 vs CLE - Destroyed by LeBron (preview of the playoffs)
3/4 vs UTA - Close win versus a quality up-and-coming Utah team
3/6 vs NOP - Win versus Anthony Davis and his terrible supporting cast
3/8 vs ORL - Loss to a bad but talented Magic team
3/9 vs MIA - Win against an injury-battered team missing its best player
3/11 vs MEM - Win against a contender
3/13 vs ORL - Win against a bad but talented Magic team
3/14 vs IND - Win against a crappy Pacers squad missing its best player
3/16 vs PHI - Win against a tanking team
3/18 vs OKC - Beaten by Russell Westbrook
3/20 vs SAS - Beaten handily by the Spurs machine
3/22 vs Detroit - Overtime loss against a crappy but bigger Pistons squad
3/23 vs BRK - Blowout win against a mediocre Nets team
3/25 vs MIA - Loss against injury-riddled Heat team
3/27 vs NYK - Win against a tanking team
3/29 vs LAC - Blowout loss against a contender
3/30 vs CHO - Double digit win against mediocre Hornets team
4/1 vs IND - Double digit win against mediocre Pacers team
4/3 vs MIL - Loss against upstart Bucks team
4/4 vs TOR - Overtime win against reeling Toronto team
4/8 vs DET - Double digit win against mediocre Pistons team
4/10 vs CLE - Win against CLE team taking it easy before the playoffs
4/12 vs CLE - Blowout win against CLE team resting its stars
4/14 vs TOR - Close win against reeling Toronto team
4/15 vs MIL - Close win against young Bucks team



A lot of wins against mediocre teams in the Eastern Conference.  A couple of quality wins in there, too.  A win against the Grizzlies at home is the one that stands out.

I would like to point out that my claim was that teams didn't tank against us.

You say our win against the Hornets here "2/27 vs CHO - Win versus a crappy Hornets squad"

Maybe you didn't notice that during that game the Celtics and Hornets were both 23-33 and fighting for playoffs. 

You calling the Hornets crappy but we were in the same exact spot as them, we were also crappy!!! And we get penalized in the minds of the fans because you label the other team crappy and of course we should have won, right?

[incoherent]

You don't think teams were looking at the Celtics as a scheduled W and played down to that expectation, particularly after our abysmal start and trading away our two best players?

This seems like a curious double standard to me -- that you're acknowledging the existence of "easy win" games while arguing against the fact that the 2014 Celtics were a great candidate for being "trap games" for other teams around the league.

I'm not arguing that the Celtics weren't a trap game. We caught teams off guard and capitalized. That's not the same as teams resting their starters and hoping for a loss.

[D.o.s.]

I agree with that, but I'm not sure that anyone on here is/was actually saying what you're arguing against.

Which is basically what Pho said on the first page.

[Boris Badenov]

"The only reason we did good at the end of last season (or the only reason we got into the playoffs) was because teams tanked against us"

This is something I hear A LOT on this forum, repeated so much that people seem to really believe it and not challenge it.

I remember the Cavs tanking a game against us, one game they played Lebron and KLove 30min each... that is not tanking, considering that most of our own players dont even play more then 30 min.  But surely, according to this narrative, more teams then that one Cavs game tanked against us and let us win, otherwise we wouldnt ever have made the playoffs, right?

Lets look, the Celtics won 10 of their final 13 games to secure a playoff spot... was it just given us to collectively by the league?

Celtics beat Brooklyn 110-91: Nets play all their starters heavy minutes and were also fighting us for a playoff spot.... No Tanking

Celtics beat the Knicks 96-92: TANKED

Celtics beat the Hornets 116-104: Hornets play all of their starters and even play Walker 40 mins as this was a must win for them... No Tanking

Celtics beat the Pacers 100-87: Pacers play all their starters and was a must win game for them... No Tanking

Celtics beat the Raptors 117-116 in OT: Raptors played Derozan 43 mins... No Tanking (Marcus Smart hit game winner)

Celtics beat the Pistons 113-103: Pistons played all their starters, their loss to the C's ended their playoff hopes mathematically... No Tanking

Celtics beat Cavs 99-90: Lebron and Love both played 30 mins and both played well, none of our starters played more then 34 minutes... I do not consider this a tank job by the Cavs, how can it be when the best player in the world is on the court... No Tanking

Celtics beat Cavs 117-78: Cavs rest all starters TANKED

After this 2nd Cavs game, the Celtics officially clinched their playoff spot and went on to win their final 2 games.

Of the all these Final 10 wins only the Cavs and Knicks tanked.  The Knicks tanked versus everyone in the league all season, so I honestly don't see how that can be a knock on us.  We got all of 1 win due to teams actually tanking that could have beat us. 

I find the narrative that we only got into the playoffs because of tanking teams to be completely false.

TP for the research and analysis. Some other context given the discussion above: our record after the All-Star break was 20-11. Seventeen of those 31 games, or 55%, were against playoff teams. We were 9-7 against playoff teams. Based on a quick look I'd say one of those wins was against a team clearly resting its best players (the Cavs game you list).