Smart makes All-Rookie Second Team

[Ilikesports17]

My most positive way to look at it is that the whole list contains 3 players from playoff teams.
Nikola Mirotic - 24 years old, has played professionally since 2008
Marcus Smart - 21 years old, first professional season
Bojan Bogdanovich - 26 years old has played professionally since 2004

Also, I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder.

And double also, these are based on rookie year performance, not whos the best prospect. I think nearly everyone would prefer Smart to Clarkson long term, and I personally think he will have better careers than everyone but Wiggins and Noel assuming this year wasnt an I play in Philly mirage.

Worth noting Parker, exum, randle, Gordon are complete question marks right now.

Parker has at least shown something before he got hurt. I would say Exum and Gordon were certainly underwhelming in their rookie campaigns. I am not even convinced that Clarkson will have a lengthy NBA career. There are many players that have put up good scoring numbers for terrible teams in the past and found themselves out of the league a few years later. Gerald Green would be one such example (although obviously he made it back to the league)

Good point, I think I included Parker in that list because he was not included on the teams. However, he looked very good in his limited play.

Let me revise:
Embiid and Randle are still question marks however, Embiid was a far superior prospect pre-injury to Smart so Id give him the edge even without him playing a game. that being said, he is still an unknown.

Exum, Gordon, and Vonleh are all relative dissapointments, but they are so young and raw I dont think its fair to project their futures so Id say they too go in the question mark category.

[celticsclay]

My most positive way to look at it is that the whole list contains 3 players from playoff teams.
Nikola Mirotic - 24 years old, has played professionally since 2008
Marcus Smart - 21 years old, first professional season
Bojan Bogdanovich - 26 years old has played professionally since 2004

Also, I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder.

And double also, these are based on rookie year performance, not whos the best prospect. I think nearly everyone would prefer Smart to Clarkson long term, and I personally think he will have better careers than everyone but Wiggins and Noel assuming this year wasnt an I play in Philly mirage.

Worth noting Parker, exum, randle, Gordon are complete question marks right now.

Parker has at least shown something before he got hurt. I would say Exum and Gordon were certainly underwhelming in their rookie campaigns. I am not even convinced that Clarkson will have a lengthy NBA career. There are many players that have put up good scoring numbers for terrible teams in the past and found themselves out of the league a few years later. Gerald Green would be one such example (although obviously he made it back to the league)

Good point, I think I included Parker in that list because he was not included on the teams. However, he looked very good in his limited play.

Let me revise:
Embiid and Randle are still question marks however, Embiid was a far superior prospect pre-injury to Smart so Id give him the edge even without him playing a game. that being said, he is still an unknown.

Exum, Gordon, and Vonleh are all relative dissapointments, but they are so young and raw I dont think its fair to project their futures so Id say they too go in the question mark category.

I am the least optimistic on Gordon although I didn't see him very much. He just seems like more of an athlete than a basketball player. They have a lot of talent in orlando though, they may not even need him to work out.

[Rondo9]

Clarkson beats him out. If we went for Randle or Gordon i was hoping the Celts grab Clarkson next.

Smart didnt do enough, was not consistent on the offensive end

Kind of hard to remain consistent if you're the 4th or 5th option on offense. Do you believe that Clarkson would have the same performance on the Celtics?

[Celtics4ever]

Surprising that he did not get that many first team votes?  Thoughts?

I think the list is decent.

[Ilikesports17]

My most positive way to look at it is that the whole list contains 3 players from playoff teams.
Nikola Mirotic - 24 years old, has played professionally since 2008
Marcus Smart - 21 years old, first professional season
Bojan Bogdanovich - 26 years old has played professionally since 2004

Also, I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder.

And double also, these are based on rookie year performance, not whos the best prospect. I think nearly everyone would prefer Smart to Clarkson long term, and I personally think he will have better careers than everyone but Wiggins and Noel assuming this year wasnt an I play in Philly mirage.

Worth noting Parker, exum, randle, Gordon are complete question marks right now.

Parker has at least shown something before he got hurt. I would say Exum and Gordon were certainly underwhelming in their rookie campaigns. I am not even convinced that Clarkson will have a lengthy NBA career. There are many players that have put up good scoring numbers for terrible teams in the past and found themselves out of the league a few years later. Gerald Green would be one such example (although obviously he made it back to the league)

Good point, I think I included Parker in that list because he was not included on the teams. However, he looked very good in his limited play.

Let me revise:
Embiid and Randle are still question marks however, Embiid was a far superior prospect pre-injury to Smart so Id give him the edge even without him playing a game. that being said, he is still an unknown.

Exum, Gordon, and Vonleh are all relative dissapointments, but they are so young and raw I dont think its fair to project their futures so Id say they too go in the question mark category.

I am the least optimistic on Gordon although I didn't see him very much. He just seems like more of an athlete than a basketball player. They have a lot of talent in orlando though, they may not even need him to work out.

Yup I agree.
I honestly dont expect much from Exum or Gordon (I expect less from Gordon)

I think Vonleh and Randle will have very good careers and I think Parker and Embiid will be studs but once again thats reliant on staying healthy.

[crimson_stallion]

Honestly, I'm a bit disappointed that Payton made the 1st team over Smart.  Especially that he made it by such a significant margin.

I mean sure, looking at their Per 36 stats it looks lie Payton had the better overall season, beating Smart by a significant margin in Assists, Rebounds and FG%:

Payton
10.6 points, 7.7 assists, 5 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 0.3 blocks, 2.9 turnovers, 2.4 fouls, 42.5% FG, 26.2% 3PT, 55.1% FT

Smart
10.4 points, 4.1 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1.8 turnovers, 2.6 fouls, 36.7% FG, 33.5% 3PT, 64.6% FT

But it's not completely one sided.  Smart shot significantly better from three and from the foul line (where Payton's numbers, for a PG, were almost historically bad) and I was also impressed by Smart's low turnover rate, which is a rare (and very impressive) feat for a rookie PG - especially one who wasn't really recognised as a great passer or ball handler.

Smart also had the slightly better Real Plus-Minus stat, though it was close enough that you may as well call it even.

But none of those individual stats are the ones that swing it for me.   The thing that surprises me about this selection is that Smart started at PG for a 7th seed playoffs team.  Not only did he start for a playoff team,  but there is plenty of evidence out (both by eye test and statistical) to indicate that Smart had a LOT to do with his team making the playoffs.

In games where Marcus Smart played 30 minutes or more, the Celtics were 17-11 (60.7%) which is the equivalent of the 4th spot in the East. 

In games where Smart played less than 30 MPG the Celtics were  23 - 31 (42.6%) which is the equivalent of the 11th (or 5th last) seed in the east - just above the Hornets.

Some simple calculations can then tell you that we won the equivalent of 18 extra games (on a per 82 game basis) when we have had Smart playing 30+ minutes.

Honestly, I think it's pretty unheard of for a Rookie PG to have that type of impact on his team's success outside of superstar players like Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Tim Duncan, etc.   

Now you can look at those stats and say it's a small sample size, or there are too many variables, and that's fair enough.  But I think that no matter how you look at it, it's pretty hard to argue that Marcus Smart had a very significant contribution to this team making the playoffs,

If I'm voting for those spots, all of the above is far more important to me than an extra 0.6 rebounds per 36 minutes and an extra 0.2 assists per turnover.

But that's just me!

[loco_91]

How would you guys rank it? I'd go:

Noel (a defensive FORCE)
Wiggins (looked like a very good player, but not a budding superstar)
Payton (Smart has a better future, but Payton had a bigger role this year)
Smart (already one of the league's best defensive guards)
Mirotic (disappointing .316 3pt%)
Nurkic
Clarkson

[Ilikesports17]

Honestly, I'm a bit disappointed that Payton made the 1st team over Smart.  Especially that he made it by such a significant margin.

I mean sure, looking at their Per 36 stats it looks lie Payton had the better overall season, beating Smart by a significant margin in Assists, Rebounds and FG%:

Payton
10.6 points, 7.7 assists, 5 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 0.3 blocks, 2.9 turnovers, 2.4 fouls, 42.5% FG, 26.2% 3PT, 55.1% FT

Smart
10.4 points, 4.1 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1.8 turnovers, 2.6 fouls, 36.7% FG, 33.5% 3PT, 64.6% FT

But it's not completely one sided.  Smart shot significantly better from three and from the foul line (where Payton's numbers, for a PG, were almost historically bad) and I was also impressed by Smart's low turnover rate, which is a rare (and very impressive) feat for a rookie PG - especially one who wasn't really recognised as a great passer or ball handler.

Smart also had the slightly better Real Plus-Minus stat, though it was close enough that you may as well call it even.

But none of those individual stats are the ones that swing it for me.   The thing that surprises me about this selection is that Smart started at PG for a 7th seed playoffs team.  Not only did he start for a playoff team,  but there is plenty of evidence out (both by eye test and statistical) to indicate that Smart had a LOT to do with his team making the playoffs.

In games where Marcus Smart played 30 minutes or more, the Celtics were 17-11 (60.7%) which is the equivalent of the 4th spot in the East. 

In games where Smart played less than 30 MPG the Celtics were  23 - 31 (42.6%) which is the equivalent of the 11th (or 5th last) seed in the east - just above the Hornets.

Some simple calculations can then tell you that we won the equivalent of 18 extra games (on a per 82 game basis) when we have had Smart playing 30+ minutes.

Honestly, I think it's pretty unheard of for a Rookie PG to have that type of impact on his team's success outside of superstar players like Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Tim Duncan, etc.   

Now you can look at those stats and say it's a small sample size, or there are too many variables, and that's fair enough.  But I think that no matter how you look at it, it's pretty hard to argue that Marcus Smart had a very significant contribution to this team making the playoffs,

If I'm voting for those spots, all of the above is far more important to me than an extra 0.6 rebounds per 36 minutes and an extra 0.2 assists per turnover.

But that's just me!

The turnover and assist stuff is probably a product of usage rates. Payton had the ball more and made more tough passes, where Smart played a much more contained roll. This limited his scoring and assists but drove down his turnover rate too.

I think the big thing is his net effect on the team. He was the only first year pro to make an impact on a playoff team and I know its just the eye test, but when Marcus got involved we were a far far better team.

When he was out of the game, or when he was frozen out of the game by basically covering off the ball and then standing in a corner on O we were terrible.

We made a lot of big charges in games this year and almost invariably Marcus Smart was in the thick of it.

[crimson_stallion]

Let me revise:
Embiid and Randle are still question marks however, Embiid was a far superior prospect pre-injury to Smart so Id give him the edge even without him playing a game. that being said, he is still an unknown.

Exum, Gordon, and Vonleh are all relative dissapointments, but they are so young and raw I dont think its fair to project their futures so Id say they too go in the question mark category.

Exum and Gordon both looked pretty bad - I predict that Exum will have a pretty decent career though.  I think worst-case for him is Shaun Livingston, with best case being somewhere in between Penny Hardaway and Tyreke Evans.   I think he could make himself a career as a starter if he works hard.

Gordon I think will be a 2nd or 3rd string guy who eventually drops out of rotations.  His  absolute best case is Gerald Wallace, and his worst case...maybe Darius Miles?  His skill set is not versatile enough IMO for him to ever be a long-term starter in the league, while he doesn't specialist well enough in any one skill to build a career as a highly focused role player.   He couldn't even become a Josh Smith calibre player, because he lacks Josh Smiths passing, ball handling and inside scoring talents.

Vonleh I think will be a stud.  He hasn't shown much statistically this season, but he hasn't played much either - he missed a lot of games also due to injury. But in the small (25 game) sample size he's played in, he's averaged Per-36 numbers of:

11.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.3 blocks, 1.5 turnovers, 2.8 fouls

While his FG% has struggled (39.5%) he has already shown promise from three (38.5%) and from the line (69.2%). 

It's pretty rare to find a 19 year old big man who can average a double-double Per-36 while also demonstrating an ability to block shots, shoot the three, hit free throws, and minimise both turnovers and fouls.

Clearly he's not going to break any assist records, but then neither has Dwight Howard.  I think this kid is going to be one of the top 5 players from this draft, and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up better than Embiid, Randle and Parker when all is said and done.

[greece66]

TP
Nice thread.

There is an interesting trend in these votings for players who get a lot of first votes not to get second ones, and vice versa.

As far as this is a representation of how these players did in their first NBA year (and not a projection of their future) this feels about right.
The only thing that surprises me is that Mirotic was so close to Wiggins. Mirotic  is 24 yo and he has been playing professional bball for several years. Sure, he deserved to be in the top 5, but second? Come on...

[clover]

TP
Nice thread.

There is an interesting trend in these votings for players who get a lot of first votes not to get second ones, and vice versa.

As far as this is a representation of how these players did in their first NBA year (and not a projection of their future) this feels about right.
The only thing that surprises me is that Mirotic was so close to Wiggins. Mirotic  is 24 yo and he has been playing professional bball for several years. Sure, he deserved to be in the top 5, but second? Come on...

So you'd deduct points for experience and years playing?

[Celtics18]

behind Jordan Clarkson and Elfrid Payton?... I guess that settles the debate about how Smart is viewed nationally in comparison to Jordan Clarkson. 

FWIW, Clarkson was pretty good during the second half.  16.7 points, 5.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 1 steal, 48%/31%/84% in 32.6mpg


Smart:  9.1 points, 2.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 36%/31%/62% in 30.2mpg

Using traditional stats, it's kinda a no-contest.

I'll definitely take fourth best rookie season of anyone from the 2014 draft class, a draft class that was once upon a time reputed to have seven possible franchise players. 

Well done, Marcus.

yeah.. not bad for a 6th pick... though I think it's safe to say that Embiid and Jabari will have better careers.  So 6th best player with the 6th pick... could be worse.   Jury is out on whether Julius Randle would have been a better pick.  Exum is still an intriguing long-term prospect, but Smart won Round 1 against him.

I definitely give Marcus a fighting chance long-term against a couple of the guys who finished ahead of him in the all rookie voting. 

To borrow your metaphor, Clarkson and Payton won the first round, but Marcus could end up beating out both of them by the time their careers are all said and done.

I'm not convinced about Randle.  I wasn't coming out of college.  It remains to be seen if Embiid can live up to his promise. 

It's going to be interesting following this draft class, though.  It was extremely hyped and it's the first draft in a long time where we had a pick this high.

I like Marcus' chances at playing a starring role in the story of the 2014 draft class. 

[Vermont Green]

Tough to read much into this when a couple of the rookies (Mirotic and Bagdanovich) were stashes and 3 of the top real rookies (Parker, Randle, Gordon) suffered significant injuries.

I remain high on Smart.  I like him better than Clarkson or Payton.

[Hemingway]

Agree with what most everyone has said. No big deal, Smart will have a better career than some of the guys above him. Also, for stretches this season Smart shot the ball terribly. I think there was a certain level of jitters that are not representative of him in general- I think he'll shoot better next season and that was a real legit knock on him this year. Point guard is a really hard position, as long as we don't go nuts with out expectations I think we will be happy with Smart in Boston for years.     

[Gainesville Celtic]

How does Jordan Clarkson make the first team and not Marcus Smart?

I'm pretty sure most of the voters just look at scoring.

I thought that too... but if you look at the votes some people who i really respect for their basketball thinking voted Clarkson > Smart, including:

Zach Lowe, Marc Spears, David Aldridge, Ernie Johnson (and too a lesser extent... Ron Tillery, Kevin Arnovitz, Brian Windhorst).

So perhaps reasonable people can reasonably disagree on this one...



Of course Sean Grande, Cedric Maxwell, Bill Simmons voted for Smart > Clarkson.

The folks who i respect (or at least get something out of reading/listening talk about basketball) that voted Smart > Clarkson were:  Marc Stein, Dorris Burke, Ric Bucher

Full voting results here. (There seem to be significantly fewer folks who voted on the all-rookie teams than for, say, Coach of the Year.