Rondo's ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars

[Sixth Man]

No Bad Tony threads on MEM forums I bet.

I thought to myself, "There have to be bad tony threads", but I looked on grizzly bear blues and 3shades of blue (the two biggest Griz blogs), and didn't find any posts. Maybe its there in the comments, but there really aren't any trick or treat tony threads.

Maybe if Rondo left he'll finally find the respect he's been lacking on this site. 

And maybe that is what Rondo is planning to do at season's end...if he did indeed make that decision, all of the wrangling on this board would have been for naught.  That would be most amusing, indeed. 

  It would be fairly typical, like the hundreds of posts about whether we could win the title without Posey before KG blew out his knee in 2009 or whether we'd have won if we kept Perk that came before Rondo's elbow injury.

Fair point, Tim...

[SHAQATTACK]

Rondo is not going to kill himself to win 35 games ......when common sense says the team gets a better pick at 12 wins .

I think Rondo is gauging his output based on where he thinks this team will land at seasons end.

[TheFlex]

Rondo is not going to kill himself to win 35 games ......when common sense says the team gets a better pick at 12 wins .

I think Rondo is gauging his output based on where he thinks this team will land at seasons end.

I doubt it. Rondo is one of the toughest competitors in the game. He'd have requested a trade by now if the team asked him to tank.

[inverselock]

09-10 won 50 games.  55 the following.

Their top players and coach were still developing.

Durant 4th year.
Westbrook 3rd year.
Harden 2nd year.
Ibaka 2nd year.

Brooks 3rd year.

I think it was a lot more the Perkins. 

They didn't play LA 10-11.

Good catch...I was off by a year.

OKC beat LA (and their tall trees Gasol and Bynum) in 11-12.

It was imperative that OKC got Perk, being that he and Serge held those two to a pedestrian average and kept them from dominating.

OKC was simply not beating Kobe-Pau-Bynum without Perk. Back then, if you neutralized those twin towers you'd beat LA - and they did.

And then OKC (And Westbrook) got promptly dismissed by LeBron's Heat....the same team that BOS dismissed TWICE - in 07-08 AND in 09-10.

Who was at PG for BOS?



I know I tend to gloss over Rondo's faults, and he does have some. But he is a winner, has a TON of heart, and is supremely talented. And is quietly making this team better.

And I don't believe he gets the recognition he deserves on here.

Lebron joined the Heat in 10-11.  We never got past a Lebron Heat.

PP, KG, RA were very good in 07-08, 09-10.

[Eddie20]

Rondo is not going to kill himself to win 35 games ......when common sense says the team gets a better pick at 12 wins .

I think Rondo is gauging his output based on where he thinks this team will land at seasons end.

That's nonsense. I would be willing to bet Rondo cares much more about money, something that his ragged play is sure to cost him, than he does about the C's drafting some 19 year-old kid that he might never play with, since there is no guarantee he's back next summer.

[Rondo9]

Rondo is not going to kill himself to win 35 games ......when common sense says the team gets a better pick at 12 wins .

I think Rondo is gauging his output based on where he thinks this team will land at seasons end.

That's nonsense. I would be willing to bet Rondo cares much more about money, something that his ragged play is sure to cost him, than he does about the C's drafting some 19 year-old kid that he might never play with, since there is no guarantee he's back next summer.

I think he cares both money and winning. If Anige promises both, then I believe will be back next summer.

[TheFlex]

Rondo is not going to kill himself to win 35 games ......when common sense says the team gets a better pick at 12 wins .

I think Rondo is gauging his output based on where he thinks this team will land at seasons end.

That's nonsense. I would be willing to bet Rondo cares much more about money, something that his ragged play is sure to cost him, than he does about the C's drafting some 19 year-old kid that he might never play with, since there is no guarantee he's back next summer.

I think he cares both money and winning. If Anige promises both, then I believe will be back next summer.

This is the point of the thread, and of our earlier discussion in the game thread. After some research I don't believe Rondo is worth matching some of the financial offers he'll receive this summer. Ainge hasn't done much to make this roster attractive to someone nearing 30 such as Rondo. I don't think he'll be back.

[KeepRondo]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.

I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.

Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.

  It seems like your argument is based mainly on WS/48, which is probably dependent on how much players shoot/score much like PER is. And you're probably right that Rondo's style of play isn't suitable for a franchise player on your typical nba club. but it does seem suited to strong postseason play. It's true that Rondo's somewhat less effective without good scorers around him than better scoring star players are (duh) but he's also better at maximizing the talents of others.

Not to mention that Rondo has been struggling with his jumper this year. I think most of us would have expected a healthy Rondo to average at least 14 points a game. IMO he's still getting his open looks but he's either bricking or passing up on them. If he was scoring like he was before these win share stats would be higher.

I think the original poster over analyzes everything with these stats when the answer is pretty simple. This is why I hate advanced stats. It gets old seeing post after post wrongly trying to place value or remove value from a player from these stats.

I would understand if Rondo couldn't get any open looks from lack of floor spacing but we have enough and he's getting his open looks. He was never the best shooter but he was never this bad. He's just in a terrible shooting funk and I'm starting to wonder if he'll break out of it.

[TheFlex]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.

I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.

Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.

  It seems like your argument is based mainly on WS/48, which is probably dependent on how much players shoot/score much like PER is. And you're probably right that Rondo's style of play isn't suitable for a franchise player on your typical nba club. but it does seem suited to strong postseason play. It's true that Rondo's somewhat less effective without good scorers around him than better scoring star players are (duh) but he's also better at maximizing the talents of others.

Not to mention that Rondo has been struggling with his jumper this year. I think most of us would have expected a healthy Rondo to average at least 14 points a game. IMO he's still getting his open looks but he's either bricking or passing up on them. If he was scoring like he was before these win share stats would be higher.

I think the original poster over analyzes everything with these stats when the answer is pretty simple. This is why I hate advanced stats. It gets old seeing post after post wrongly trying to place value or remove value from a player from these stat.

I would understand if Rondo couldn't get any open looks from lack of floor spacing but we have enough and he's getting his open looks. He was never the best shooter but he was never this bad. He's just in a terrible shooting funk and I'm starting to wonder if he'll break out of it.

Since 2010-11, Rondo has averaged 38%, 37%, 41%, 40% and 36% (this year) shooting from 10 ft to the three point line. Even including his two seasons cut short or delayed by injury (41%, 40%) this slightly down year from an area on the court in which he typically shoots 20-25% of his total field goals would not explain why he is having such difficulty scoring.

Rondo is simply taking fewer shots than average and is not converting around the basket as efficiently as he once was prior to his injury. I subscribe to the theory that he is so unconfident about his free throw shooting ability that he has shied away from any shot that isn't wide open for fear of being fouled. Around the rim it seems like he is distorting his shot motion and doing things like pulling up short on floaters to avoid contact.

I'm not "overanalyzing" anything. I'm using rather simple analysis to determine whether or not Rondo is a max player. Just because I use stats does not make any of this particularly advanced, though I guess if your definition of "simple analysis" is naked eye observations, this would seem sophisticated.

[KeepRondo]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.

I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.

Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.

  It seems like your argument is based mainly on WS/48, which is probably dependent on how much players shoot/score much like PER is. And you're probably right that Rondo's style of play isn't suitable for a franchise player on your typical nba club. but it does seem suited to strong postseason play. It's true that Rondo's somewhat less effective without good scorers around him than better scoring star players are (duh) but he's also better at maximizing the talents of others.

Not to mention that Rondo has been struggling with his jumper this year. I think most of us would have expected a healthy Rondo to average at least 14 points a game. IMO he's still getting his open looks but he's either bricking or passing up on them. If he was scoring like he was before these win share stats would be higher.

I think the original poster over analyzes everything with these stats when the answer is pretty simple. This is why I hate advanced stats. It gets old seeing post after post wrongly trying to place value or remove value from a player from these stat.

I would understand if Rondo couldn't get any open looks from lack of floor spacing but we have enough and he's getting his open looks. He was never the best shooter but he was never this bad. He's just in a terrible shooting funk and I'm starting to wonder if he'll break out of it.

Since 2010-11, Rondo has averaged 38%, 37%, 41%, 40% and 36% (this year) shooting from 10 ft to the three point line. Even including his two seasons cut short or delayed by injury (41%, 40%) this slightly down year from an area on the court in which he typically shoots 20-25% of his total field goals would not explain why he is having such difficulty scoring.

Rondo is simply taking fewer shots than average and is not converting around the basket as efficiently as he once was prior to his injury. I subscribe to the theory that he is so unconfident about his free throw shooting ability that he has shied away from any shot that isn't wide open for fear of being fouled. Around the rim it seems like he is distorting his shot motion and doing things like pulling up short on floaters to avoid contact.

I'm not "overanalyzing" anything. I'm using rather simple analysis to determine whether or not Rondo is a max player. Just because I use stats does not make any of this particularly advanced, though I guess if your definition of "simple analysis" is naked eye observations, this would seem sophisticated.

This is another reason I dislike advanced stats. You use whatever stats back up your claims and dismiss the rest.

Let's look at Rondo's shooting percentage from 16 feet to inside the three point line.

2014 - 34%
2013 - 40%
2012 - 50%
2011 - 39%
2010 - 42%
2009 - 35%
2008 - 44%
2007 - 45%

Except for the one year, he's well behind statistically from his normal averages. But I really don't need these stats to know this. The last few games other then the game he posted only a few shots, he finally hit a few jumpers and looked good. But it's obvious. Rondo is struggling with his shooting form. It looks awkward and the ball is rolling off his palms to his fingers.

So go ahead and find some more stats to support your wrong theories.

[TheFlex]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.

I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.

Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.

  It seems like your argument is based mainly on WS/48, which is probably dependent on how much players shoot/score much like PER is. And you're probably right that Rondo's style of play isn't suitable for a franchise player on your typical nba club. but it does seem suited to strong postseason play. It's true that Rondo's somewhat less effective without good scorers around him than better scoring star players are (duh) but he's also better at maximizing the talents of others.

Not to mention that Rondo has been struggling with his jumper this year. I think most of us would have expected a healthy Rondo to average at least 14 points a game. IMO he's still getting his open looks but he's either bricking or passing up on them. If he was scoring like he was before these win share stats would be higher.

I think the original poster over analyzes everything with these stats when the answer is pretty simple. This is why I hate advanced stats. It gets old seeing post after post wrongly trying to place value or remove value from a player from these stat.

I would understand if Rondo couldn't get any open looks from lack of floor spacing but we have enough and he's getting his open looks. He was never the best shooter but he was never this bad. He's just in a terrible shooting funk and I'm starting to wonder if he'll break out of it.

Since 2010-11, Rondo has averaged 38%, 37%, 41%, 40% and 36% (this year) shooting from 10 ft to the three point line. Even including his two seasons cut short or delayed by injury (41%, 40%) this slightly down year from an area on the court in which he typically shoots 20-25% of his total field goals would not explain why he is having such difficulty scoring.

Rondo is simply taking fewer shots than average and is not converting around the basket as efficiently as he once was prior to his injury. I subscribe to the theory that he is so unconfident about his free throw shooting ability that he has shied away from any shot that isn't wide open for fear of being fouled. Around the rim it seems like he is distorting his shot motion and doing things like pulling up short on floaters to avoid contact.

I'm not "overanalyzing" anything. I'm using rather simple analysis to determine whether or not Rondo is a max player. Just because I use stats does not make any of this particularly advanced, though I guess if your definition of "simple analysis" is naked eye observations, this would seem sophisticated.

This is another reason I dislike advanced stats. You use whatever stats back up your claims and dismiss the rest.

Let's look at Rondo's shooting percentage from 16 feet to inside the three point line.

2014 - 34%
2013 - 40%
2012 - 50%
2011 - 39%
2010 - 42%
2009 - 35%
2008 - 44%
2007 - 45%

Except for the one year, he's well behind statistically from his normal averages. But I really don't need these stats to know this. The last few games other then the game he posted only a few shots, he finally hit a few jumpers and looked good. But it's obvious. Rondo is struggling with his shooting form. It looks awkward and the ball is rolling off his palms to his fingers.

So go ahead and find some more stats to support your wrong theories.

Lol, I literally didn't use a single stat in my last reply that you didn't just use. Tell me again how much you hate "advanced" stats?

Rondo's shooting from midrange has nothing to do with my argument. It has to do with your argument, which I refute. You claim Rondo's struggles have to do with shooting efficiency from one area on the court. In December, Rondo has shot better from that one area than he did in November (40% in December up from 25% in November). How, then, do you explain Rondo's decreased PPG in December (6.1 PPG in December down from 9 PPG in November) and dreadful offensive rating in December (87 in December down from 98 in November) despite playing a lower overall level of competition in December? The only reason Rondo is on the positive side of total +/- for the month is because he has played exceptional defense (98 defensive rating in December vs. 110 in November).

As I originally said, Rondo is shying away from contact at the rim and driving less and less aggressively. Rondo has been taking a higher percentage of his shots from beyond the three-point arc and a lesser percentage of his shots at the rim since he has returned from ACL surgery. In December thus far he has taken 12 threes while only 14 shots within three feet of the rim. He has only made one of these three-pointers. His FG% within three feet of the rim so far this year is the third-lowest of his career, outside of his rookie year and last year (post-injury).

For Rondo to return to his level of stardom pre-2012 he must drive more aggressively towards the basket and find a way to convert a higher percentage of close-range shots. Even then, Rondo is not a scorer and thus a player you can neither call a franchise player nor give a max contract.

[KeepRondo]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.

I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.

Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.

  It seems like your argument is based mainly on WS/48, which is probably dependent on how much players shoot/score much like PER is. And you're probably right that Rondo's style of play isn't suitable for a franchise player on your typical nba club. but it does seem suited to strong postseason play. It's true that Rondo's somewhat less effective without good scorers around him than better scoring star players are (duh) but he's also better at maximizing the talents of others.

Not to mention that Rondo has been struggling with his jumper this year. I think most of us would have expected a healthy Rondo to average at least 14 points a game. IMO he's still getting his open looks but he's either bricking or passing up on them. If he was scoring like he was before these win share stats would be higher.

I think the original poster over analyzes everything with these stats when the answer is pretty simple. This is why I hate advanced stats. It gets old seeing post after post wrongly trying to place value or remove value from a player from these stat.

I would understand if Rondo couldn't get any open looks from lack of floor spacing but we have enough and he's getting his open looks. He was never the best shooter but he was never this bad. He's just in a terrible shooting funk and I'm starting to wonder if he'll break out of it.

Since 2010-11, Rondo has averaged 38%, 37%, 41%, 40% and 36% (this year) shooting from 10 ft to the three point line. Even including his two seasons cut short or delayed by injury (41%, 40%) this slightly down year from an area on the court in which he typically shoots 20-25% of his total field goals would not explain why he is having such difficulty scoring.

Rondo is simply taking fewer shots than average and is not converting around the basket as efficiently as he once was prior to his injury. I subscribe to the theory that he is so unconfident about his free throw shooting ability that he has shied away from any shot that isn't wide open for fear of being fouled. Around the rim it seems like he is distorting his shot motion and doing things like pulling up short on floaters to avoid contact.

I'm not "overanalyzing" anything. I'm using rather simple analysis to determine whether or not Rondo is a max player. Just because I use stats does not make any of this particularly advanced, though I guess if your definition of "simple analysis" is naked eye observations, this would seem sophisticated.

This is another reason I dislike advanced stats. You use whatever stats back up your claims and dismiss the rest.

Let's look at Rondo's shooting percentage from 16 feet to inside the three point line.

2014 - 34%
2013 - 40%
2012 - 50%
2011 - 39%
2010 - 42%
2009 - 35%
2008 - 44%
2007 - 45%

Except for the one year, he's well behind statistically from his normal averages. But I really don't need these stats to know this. The last few games other then the game he posted only a few shots, he finally hit a few jumpers and looked good. But it's obvious. Rondo is struggling with his shooting form. It looks awkward and the ball is rolling off his palms to his fingers.

So go ahead and find some more stats to support your wrong theories.

Lol, I literally didn't use a single stat in my last reply that you didn't just use. Tell me again how much you hate "advanced" stats?

Rondo's shooting from midrange has nothing to do with my argument. It has to do with your argument, which I refute. You claim Rondo's struggles have to do with shooting efficiency from one area on the court. In December, Rondo has shot better from that one area than he did in November (40% in December up from 25% in November). How, then, do you explain Rondo's decreased PPG in December (6.1 PPG in December down from 9 PPG in November) and dreadful offensive rating in December (87 in December down from 98 in November) despite playing a lower overall level of competition in December? The only reason Rondo is on the positive side of total +/- for the month is because he has played exceptional defense (98 defensive rating in December vs. 110 in November).

As I originally said, Rondo is shying away from contact at the rim and driving less and less aggressively. Rondo has been taking a higher percentage of his shots from beyond the three-point arc and a lesser percentage of his shots at the rim since he has returned from ACL surgery. In December thus far he has taken 12 threes while only 14 shots within three feet of the rim. He has only made one of these three-pointers. His FG% within three feet of the rim so far this year is the third-lowest of his career, outside of his rookie year and last year (post-injury).

For Rondo to return to his level of stardom pre-2012 he must drive more aggressively towards the basket and find a way to convert a higher percentage of close-range shots. Even then, Rondo is not a scorer and thus a player you can neither call a franchise player nor give a max contract.

The stats we used are not the same. The stats I used showed that Rondo is way off his average for mid range jump shots.

Also, you helped prove that you are incorrectly using stats.

The original premise you made for this thread, is that player x's win shares are down because he no longer plays with players y and z. This is a rather big leap to make to come to this conclusion. You also state that other players have been able to keep their win share percentage even though they did not play with comparable players to players y and z. However, player x on the Celtics has not been able to maintain his win share percentage without these players.

So let's look at what's causing player x's win shares to go down. The one thing that sticks out is the 8.2 points per game. Player x is shooting poorly causing his points per game to be down. If he was averaging 4-5 more points, his win shares would be where they were before.

So then you clearly state that player x's poor free throw shooting has caused player x to take less shots around the rim. I also contest that if player x could make more jump shots then he could pull his man out and open more driving lanes. Player x could also get the big to jump out on the pick and roll instead of falling back every time. Teams are clogging the lane on player x due to him missing jump shots. It's amazing player x is able to squeeze those passes to Zeller. 

So ok, you might say player x would benefit from playing with player y and z. But player x is getting wide open shots. He's just missing them. His form is off. You can see it on the free throw line and it looks worse when he tries to gather the ball for a jump shot. We also have pretty good floor spacing and a couple of bigs that can hit 3s. It's not like player x can't get to his spots to hit his shots.

I hate that you pulled me down this rabbit hole and that I said player x that many times. I'm just trying to say that your premise that player x's win shares are down because he no longer plays with player y and z is wrong. Player x's win shares are down because his shooting fell off a cliff.

[TheFlex]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.

I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.

Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.

  It seems like your argument is based mainly on WS/48, which is probably dependent on how much players shoot/score much like PER is. And you're probably right that Rondo's style of play isn't suitable for a franchise player on your typical nba club. but it does seem suited to strong postseason play. It's true that Rondo's somewhat less effective without good scorers around him than better scoring star players are (duh) but he's also better at maximizing the talents of others.

Not to mention that Rondo has been struggling with his jumper this year. I think most of us would have expected a healthy Rondo to average at least 14 points a game. IMO he's still getting his open looks but he's either bricking or passing up on them. If he was scoring like he was before these win share stats would be higher.

I think the original poster over analyzes everything with these stats when the answer is pretty simple. This is why I hate advanced stats. It gets old seeing post after post wrongly trying to place value or remove value from a player from these stat.

I would understand if Rondo couldn't get any open looks from lack of floor spacing but we have enough and he's getting his open looks. He was never the best shooter but he was never this bad. He's just in a terrible shooting funk and I'm starting to wonder if he'll break out of it.

Since 2010-11, Rondo has averaged 38%, 37%, 41%, 40% and 36% (this year) shooting from 10 ft to the three point line. Even including his two seasons cut short or delayed by injury (41%, 40%) this slightly down year from an area on the court in which he typically shoots 20-25% of his total field goals would not explain why he is having such difficulty scoring.

Rondo is simply taking fewer shots than average and is not converting around the basket as efficiently as he once was prior to his injury. I subscribe to the theory that he is so unconfident about his free throw shooting ability that he has shied away from any shot that isn't wide open for fear of being fouled. Around the rim it seems like he is distorting his shot motion and doing things like pulling up short on floaters to avoid contact.

I'm not "overanalyzing" anything. I'm using rather simple analysis to determine whether or not Rondo is a max player. Just because I use stats does not make any of this particularly advanced, though I guess if your definition of "simple analysis" is naked eye observations, this would seem sophisticated.

This is another reason I dislike advanced stats. You use whatever stats back up your claims and dismiss the rest.

Let's look at Rondo's shooting percentage from 16 feet to inside the three point line.

2014 - 34%
2013 - 40%
2012 - 50%
2011 - 39%
2010 - 42%
2009 - 35%
2008 - 44%
2007 - 45%

Except for the one year, he's well behind statistically from his normal averages. But I really don't need these stats to know this. The last few games other then the game he posted only a few shots, he finally hit a few jumpers and looked good. But it's obvious. Rondo is struggling with his shooting form. It looks awkward and the ball is rolling off his palms to his fingers.

So go ahead and find some more stats to support your wrong theories.

Lol, I literally didn't use a single stat in my last reply that you didn't just use. Tell me again how much you hate "advanced" stats?

Rondo's shooting from midrange has nothing to do with my argument. It has to do with your argument, which I refute. You claim Rondo's struggles have to do with shooting efficiency from one area on the court. In December, Rondo has shot better from that one area than he did in November (40% in December up from 25% in November). How, then, do you explain Rondo's decreased PPG in December (6.1 PPG in December down from 9 PPG in November) and dreadful offensive rating in December (87 in December down from 98 in November) despite playing a lower overall level of competition in December? The only reason Rondo is on the positive side of total +/- for the month is because he has played exceptional defense (98 defensive rating in December vs. 110 in November).

As I originally said, Rondo is shying away from contact at the rim and driving less and less aggressively. Rondo has been taking a higher percentage of his shots from beyond the three-point arc and a lesser percentage of his shots at the rim since he has returned from ACL surgery. In December thus far he has taken 12 threes while only 14 shots within three feet of the rim. He has only made one of these three-pointers. His FG% within three feet of the rim so far this year is the third-lowest of his career, outside of his rookie year and last year (post-injury).

For Rondo to return to his level of stardom pre-2012 he must drive more aggressively towards the basket and find a way to convert a higher percentage of close-range shots. Even then, Rondo is not a scorer and thus a player you can neither call a franchise player nor give a max contract.

The stats we used are not the same. The stats I used showed that Rondo is way off his average for mid range jump shots.

Also, you helped prove that you are incorrectly using stats.

The original premise you made for this thread, is that player x's win shares are down because he no longer plays with players y and z. This is a rather big leap to make to come to this conclusion. You also state that other players have been able to keep their win share percentage even though they did not play with comparable players to players y and z. However, player x on the Celtics has not been able to maintain his win share percentage without these players.

So let's look at what's causing player x's win shares to go down. The one thing that sticks out is the 8.2 points per game. Player x is shooting poorly causing his points per game to be down. If he was averaging 4-5 more points, his win shares would be where they were before.

So then you clearly state that player x's poor free throw shooting has caused player x to take less shots around the rim. I also contest that if player x could make more jump shots then he could pull his man out and open more driving lanes. Player x could also get the big to jump out on the pick and roll instead of falling back every time. Teams are clogging the lane on player x due to him missing jump shots. It's amazing player x is able to squeeze those passes to Zeller. 

So ok, you might say player x would benefit from playing with player y and z. But player x is getting wide open shots. He's just missing them. His form is off. You can see it on the free throw line and it looks worse when he tries to gather the ball for a jump shot. We also have pretty good floor spacing and a couple of bigs that can hit 3s. It's not like player x can't get to his spots to hit his shots.

I hate that you pulled me down this rabbit hole and that I said player x that many times. I'm just trying to say that your premise that player x's win shares are down because he no longer plays with player y and z is wrong. Player x's win shares are down because his shooting fell off a cliff.

I am appreciative that you demonstrate an understanding of my original premise.

However, you are broadening your original claim of "Rondo's win shares are down because his FG% from midrange is down" to be synonymous with "Rondo's win shares are down because FG% in general is down." Rondo has been terrific from midrange for quite some time. If any team's gameplan included sagging off Rondo outside the paint because of one bad midrange shooting month (November), their coach should be fired. However if you believe NBA coaches are that spastic, I also exhibited for you that in December he is hitting 40% of jumpers between 16 feet out and the three-point line, and yet his offensive game is even worse than it was in November (when he was hitting 25% of such jumpers).

I claimed that Rondo's win shares are down because he is not taking as many shots near the basket and of those close-range shots he is attempting, a lesser percentage of them are going in. As I said, he is attempting a steadily decreasing percentage of his total shots at the rim since returning from injury. His FG% within three feet of the rim is the third lowest of his career behind last year and his rookie season. Your claim and mine are not one and the same just because they both conclude that shooting has something to do with his poor scoring average and thus poor WS total.

And again, I still don't think Rondo at his offensive best (14/11/5.5) is a max guy. It was theorized before the Big Three crumbled that Rondo needed stars to be a game-changer and so far there has been nothing material indicating otherwise. It would be nice to wait and see but the trade deadline is in three months and his contract expires at the end of this season.