Lottery idea

[winsomme]

I haven't completely thought this idea through but since we (the Cs) are faced with the question of whether or not to tank this year given the probable talent coming out in our first year post GPA, I thought I'd throw it out there..

What about a combo of:

1)  leveling the odds a bit more (ie lessen the worst team's odds of getting a top pick)

2) increase the number of actual lotto spots from 3 to 5 (so now there are more chances to move up.

3) increase the number of teams eligible for the lottery by say 4 so to include teams that actually make the playoffs..


Clearly Stern et al are bothered by the glut of TERRIBLE teams this year and are looking to de-incentivise being bad (ie their lotto wheel idea) and I think these 3 pieces would help because being REALLY bad wouldn't help your team and going for the playoffs wouldn't take a young building team that is actually trying to win out of the running for the top draft talent...

The piece I like the most is the bottom 4 playoff teams still being lotto eligible because those teams almost never have a legit shot at a title but should be rewarded for at least going for it...

[pokeKingCurtis]

Is it Stern?

I think it's Silver who wants the wheel idea?

[winsomme]

Is it Stern?

I think it's Silver who wants the wheel idea?

yeah I think it's Silver's idea but Stern can't like how pitiful the lotto teams are this year...

Plus, shouldn't teams like the Cs and the Suns et al be rewarded for actually trying to build a winning culture even though they don't have the talent to compete with the big boys?

[dreamgreen]

I thought the NBA changed the odds in the lottery after Orlando won it back to back, Shaq/Penny?

Anyway they HAVE to do something about tanking, it's painful and no fan should have to hope their team losses, it goes against all principles of being a sports fan.

[CFAN38]

I would like to see a system where teams 1-10 are all picked at random for the draft order. Then teams 11-21 do the same for the next ten. The top teams just draft where they finished. I would also like to see a top pick handy cap so that if you had first pick in 2013 you arnt top 5 eligible for 2014 or top 3 for 2015. If your top 3 2013 then not top 3 eligible 2014.

Last thing would be a draft pick penalty placed on repeat luxury tax offenders. This would take a valuable trade asset away from the owners who want to spend their way to contention. While addi g value to the early second round.

[dreamgreen]

I would like to see a system where teams 1-10 are all picked at random for the draft order. Then teams 11-21 do the same for the next ten. The top teams just draft where they finished. I would also like to see a top pick handy cap so that if you had first pick in 2013 you arnt top 5 eligible for 2014 or top 3 for 2015. If your top 3 2013 then not top 3 eligible 2014.

Last thing would be a draft pick penalty placed on repeat luxury tax offenders. This would take a valuable trade asset away from the owners who want to spend their way to contention. While addi g value to the early second round.

I'd prefer a hard cap, make everyone play on a level playing field.

[nickagneta]

Here's my proposal that I proposed in the wheel thread

One 30 team league that eliminates West and East and gets rid of good teams from one conference getting into the lottery while bad teams from another conference make the playoffs and do not get into the lottery.

Playoffs are top 16 teams with a regular 7 game series with 1 facing 16 2 facing 15, 3 facing 15 etc. Future seedings can be worked out, I don't care about them.

If you want to eliminate tanking you have to get rid of tanking "thinking" from the very top of the franchise. Cut the head off the snake, so to say. Therefore, hit the owners where it hurts if they want to approve their franchise tanking, in their wallets.

Of the 14 teams that do no make the playoffs, 9 get to share, along with all 16 playoff seeds in the following year's television generated revenue at a full share rate. Those nine teams are put into a non-weighted lottery with equal chance to land a spot, 6-14 in the draft.

The bottom five teams share at a half share rate, in the following year, for any of the television generated revenue. The 2.5 shares of television revenue that are not paid to the bottom five teams(there are 30 original shares, 25 full shares for the top 25 teams, 5 half shares for the bottom fives teams) are split equally amongst the top 25 teams, with each top 25 teams now receiving an extra one tenth share.

Given that this year each team share of the national television revenue is about $30 million, that means if you finish bottom five, you are losing $18 million(the $15 million of a 1/2 share plus the extra $3 million each top 25 team receives as a 1/10th share for finishing in the top 25.

The bottom 5 teams go into a lottery without weights to determine who receives picks 1-5.

This makes teams want to play as well as possible because no owner wants to make $18 million less a year for tanking. It also prevents tanking in the two tiers of teams that finish out of the playoff run because your draft position is based purely on a non-weighted lottery.

So tanking becomes a thing of the past and the draft is still maintained with incentives to win until the final week or so of the regular season.

Until you get rid of the idea of tanking being an acceptable strategy for getting better from the minds of the owners, it will always happen. The only way to eradicate the idea with them is to hit their bottom line.

[Surferdad]

I would like to see a system where teams 1-10 are all picked at random for the draft order. Then teams 11-21 do the same for the next ten. The top teams just draft where they finished. I would also like to see a top pick handy cap so that if you had first pick in 2013 you arnt top 5 eligible for 2014 or top 3 for 2015. If your top 3 2013 then not top 3 eligible 2014.

Last thing would be a draft pick penalty placed on repeat luxury tax offenders. This would take a valuable trade asset away from the owners who want to spend their way to contention. While addi g value to the early second round.

I would be concerned that could actually lead to more tanking. For example a team sees they are at 11 and might lose a final game or two to get a shot at the 1-10 random drawing.  Same thing for a team at 22 that could stand to jump significantly if they get into the 11-21 random drawing.  That is, if you believe that tanking exists 

[guava_wrench]

I haven't completely thought this idea through but since we (the Cs) are faced with the question of whether or not to tank this year given the probable talent coming out in our first year post GPA, I thought I'd throw it out there..

What about a combo of:

1)  leveling the odds a bit more (ie lessen the worst team's odds of getting a top pick)

2) increase the number of actual lotto spots from 3 to 5 (so now there are more chances to move up.

3) increase the number of teams eligible for the lottery by say 4 so to include teams that actually make the playoffs..


Clearly Stern et al are bothered by the glut of TERRIBLE teams this year and are looking to de-incentivise being bad (ie their lotto wheel idea) and I think these 3 pieces would help because being REALLY bad wouldn't help your team and going for the playoffs wouldn't take a young building team that is actually trying to win out of the running for the top draft talent...

The piece I like the most is the bottom 4 playoff teams still being lotto eligible because those teams almost never have a legit shot at a title but should be rewarded for at least going for it...

The odds of the worst team getting the pick are already low. They are only 25%.

I am not opposed to investigating #2 and #3, but I really don't see a problem. Teams in every sport make moves towards the future. Baseball teams often have fire sales at the trade deadline. Football teams often cut better talent to avoid their contracts.

Even if a team gets the top pick, they still need to put a team around the player before the player becomes a free agent and decides to move to a better franchise. Look at Lebron, Shaq, and Howard. Duncan almost left for Orlando.

[CFAN38]

I would like to see a system where teams 1-10 are all picked at random for the draft order. Then teams 11-21 do the same for the next ten. The top teams just draft where they finished. I would also like to see a top pick handy cap so that if you had first pick in 2013 you arnt top 5 eligible for 2014 or top 3 for 2015. If your top 3 2013 then not top 3 eligible 2014.

Last thing would be a draft pick penalty placed on repeat luxury tax offenders. This would take a valuable trade asset away from the owners who want to spend their way to contention. While addi g value to the early second round.

I would be concerned that could actually lead to more tanking. For example a team sees they are at 11 and might lose a final game or two to get a shot at the 1-10 random drawing.  Same thing for a team at 22 that could stand to jump significantly if they get into the 11-21 random drawing.  That is, if you believe that tanking exists 

I actually was thinking the same thing after I posted. I guess my reviced solution would be this..

The 22 worst nba teams based on how you finish in playoffs are placed in a pool. (edit)Teams are pulled at random for the top ten spots and then fall in order of how they finished after that. This means the worst team is guaranteed the 11th pick. The 8 conference semi-finalists get 22-30.

Expanding on my previous idea the team with the 1st pick isn't top ten eligible the next season, top five after that, and top 3 after that. The  teams in the top 3 are not top 5 eligible the next season or top 3 after that.

I would still include my luxury tax pick penalty. Any team that is over the luxury tax is not top 10 eligible.Any team over the tax for three years loses there 1st rd pick. This will lead to super teams having to disband or give up their pick. If a team is over the tax and not winning ie nets, knicks then they have added incentive to get they salary down.   

This should keep the true contenders out of the top picks while allowing lower end playoff teams to add elite talent. Tanking is no longer a positive. Teams are better off pushing for a playoff spot. The top pick restrictions will prevent a situation where a team gets lucky and hits top picks in the same 3 year period.

[winsomme]

I haven't completely thought this idea through but since we (the Cs) are faced with the question of whether or not to tank this year given the probable talent coming out in our first year post GPA, I thought I'd throw it out there..

What about a combo of:

1)  leveling the odds a bit more (ie lessen the worst team's odds of getting a top pick)

2) increase the number of actual lotto spots from 3 to 5 (so now there are more chances to move up.

3) increase the number of teams eligible for the lottery by say 4 so to include teams that actually make the playoffs..


Clearly Stern et al are bothered by the glut of TERRIBLE teams this year and are looking to de-incentivise being bad (ie their lotto wheel idea) and I think these 3 pieces would help because being REALLY bad wouldn't help your team and going for the playoffs wouldn't take a young building team that is actually trying to win out of the running for the top draft talent...

The piece I like the most is the bottom 4 playoff teams still being lotto eligible because those teams almost never have a legit shot at a title but should be rewarded for at least going for it...

The odds of the worst team getting the pick are already low. They are only 25%.

I am not opposed to investigating #2 and #3, but I really don't see a problem. Teams in every sport make moves towards the future. Baseball teams often have fire sales at the trade deadline. Football teams often cut better talent to avoid their contracts.

Even if a team gets the top pick, they still need to put a team around the player before the player becomes a free agent and decides to move to a better franchise. Look at Lebron, Shaq, and Howard. Duncan almost left for Orlando.

I think in basketball it's a little different because the number of franchise type players is lower and they usually come from the top draft positions. That leads to numerous franchises not trying to win in hopes of getting one of these players. This year is worse due to the potential draft class but it happens every year to some degree.

I'm not opposed to bad teams getting a better shot at getting the premium talent. I actually think it's important that bad teams get a better shot given so many small market teams in to league who have a hard time luring big name free agents. I just don't like the all out race to the bottom.

All lottery teams are pretty far from a Title and need a shot at something better, I just don't want the teams that completely abandon ship to be the most rewarded.

Side note. Not a fan of the "wheel" because I think there should be some draft advantage to not being good. Just not as much advantage as there is now.

[vjcsmoke]

Not going to happen. Owners are not going to agree to vote to hurt their own wallets.  Interesting idea but I don't see it.  I also don't see the 'wheel' idea working.  If everyone knows their pick ahead of time and record doesn't matter.

Well then you're going to have the odd situation come up where a team just coming off an NBA Championship gets a top 3 pick and gets the Michael Jordan or Kevin Durant of that year's draft.  The fans would be outraged. 

Plus how would the fans feel if their team just went 12-70 but they have to pick 25th in the next draft?  There would be no hope or excitement for at least a few more years.

The Fixed Wheel doesn't work, and economic sanctions would never pass.  Not sure how to solve the mess that is the NBA draft lottery, but it's just not looking good right now.

Of the 14 teams that do no make the playoffs, 9 get to share, along with all 16 playoff seeds in the following year's television generated revenue at a full share rate. Those nine teams are put into a non-weighted lottery with equal chance to land a spot, 6-14 in the draft.

The bottom five teams share at a half share rate, in the following year, for any of the television generated revenue. The 2.5 shares of television revenue that are not paid to the bottom five teams(there are 30 original shares, 25 full shares for the top 25 teams, 5 half shares for the bottom fives teams) are split equally amongst the top 25 teams, with each top 25 teams now receiving an extra one tenth share.

Given that this year each team share of the national television revenue is about $30 million, that means if you finish bottom five, you are losing $18 million(the $15 million of a 1/2 share plus the extra $3 million each top 25 team receives as a 1/10th share for finishing in the top 25.

The bottom 5 teams go into a lottery without weights to determine who receives picks 1-5.

This makes teams want to play as well as possible because no owner wants to make $18 million less a year for tanking. It also prevents tanking in the two tiers of teams that finish out of the playoff run because your draft position is based purely on a non-weighted lottery.

So tanking becomes a thing of the past and the draft is still maintained with incentives to win until the final week or so of the regular season.

Until you get rid of the idea of tanking being an acceptable strategy for getting better from the minds of the owners, it will always happen. The only way to eradicate the idea with them is to hit their bottom line.

[nickagneta]

Not going to happen. Owners are not going to agree to vote to hurt their own wallets.  Interesting idea but I don't see it.  I also don't see the 'wheel' idea working.  If everyone knows their pick ahead of time and record doesn't matter.

Well then you're going to have the odd situation come up where a team just coming off an NBA Championship gets a top 3 pick and gets the Michael Jordan or Kevin Durant of that year's draft.  The fans would be outraged. 

Plus how would the fans feel if their team just went 12-70 but they have to pick 25th in the next draft?  There would be no hope or excitement for at least a few more years.

The Fixed Wheel doesn't work, and economic sanctions would never pass.  Not sure how to solve the mess that is the NBA draft lottery, but it's just not looking good right now.

Of the 14 teams that do no make the playoffs, 9 get to share, along with all 16 playoff seeds in the following year's television generated revenue at a full share rate. Those nine teams are put into a non-weighted lottery with equal chance to land a spot, 6-14 in the draft.

The bottom five teams share at a half share rate, in the following year, for any of the television generated revenue. The 2.5 shares of television revenue that are not paid to the bottom five teams(there are 30 original shares, 25 full shares for the top 25 teams, 5 half shares for the bottom fives teams) are split equally amongst the top 25 teams, with each top 25 teams now receiving an extra one tenth share.

Given that this year each team share of the national television revenue is about $30 million, that means if you finish bottom five, you are losing $18 million(the $15 million of a 1/2 share plus the extra $3 million each top 25 team receives as a 1/10th share for finishing in the top 25.

The bottom 5 teams go into a lottery without weights to determine who receives picks 1-5.

This makes teams want to play as well as possible because no owner wants to make $18 million less a year for tanking. It also prevents tanking in the two tiers of teams that finish out of the playoff run because your draft position is based purely on a non-weighted lottery.

So tanking becomes a thing of the past and the draft is still maintained with incentives to win until the final week or so of the regular season.

Until you get rid of the idea of tanking being an acceptable strategy for getting better from the minds of the owners, it will always happen. The only way to eradicate the idea with them is to hit their bottom line.

Economic sanction might pass because it means an extra $3 million in revenue or more every year for 25 teams. If 20 teams think they would never finish in the bottom 5 ever, then getting an extra revenue stream might look pretty enticing to them and it might pass with the 2/3's vote needed.